US Economy thread

[Skatastrophy]

Anyway, the assertion that rents "surging" to just under $2k per month is obviously not driven by small towns in the USA where you can easily load up on houses around $150k a pop.

Small towns are dying and have been for a while globally because of the technology revolution. People are flocking to cities. Home prices and rents have been surging in desirable areas, and where some metros are keeping up with construction others are not which is exacerbating the problem.

Honestly my hot take on this is a bit broader: This small town dying thing is the death of an entire way of life for many americans and they feel attacked because nobody is coming to save them or their way of life (because, honestly, it's not valuable or important). There's no more farm labor jobs and buying farms is out of reach for them since major land owners have snapped up everything before it even goes on the market. So they can't own a farm, and there's no more farm labor jobs which means there's not that many people spending $$ in those areas so the service industry dried up in those rural towns. I think that's why a lot of rural folks are so angry. They're desperately poor, unable to bootstrap themselves or their families, everyone that has the aptitude has already fled, and those small towns are aging rapidly because the young people left. Their nest egg, their homes in most cases, is valueless. The last time the world went through a seismic economic shift like we're currently going through was the industrial revolution. Back then the revolution led to vast economic disparity, which led to political unrest, which led to some countries putting down peasant revolts. It's already coming to that in some pockets. It'll be a while before the disparity stabilizes, imo, since the global economy is continuing to evolve so rapidly.

[MU82]

That's a real interesting post, Ska. Sad, but interesting.

[jesmu84]

Great post, Ska

[Hards Alumni]

Anyway, the assertion that rents "surging" to just under $2k per month is obviously not driven by small towns in the USA where you can easily load up on houses around $150k a pop.

Small towns are dying and have been for a while globally because of the technology revolution. People are flocking to cities. Home prices and rents have been surging in desirable areas, and where some metros are keeping up with construction others are not which is exacerbating the problem.

Honestly my hot take on this is a bit broader: This small town dying thing is the death of an entire way of life for many americans and they feel attacked because nobody is coming to save them or their way of life (because, honestly, it's not valuable or important). There's no more farm labor jobs and buying farms is out of reach for them since major land owners have snapped up everything before it even goes on the market. So they can't own a farm, and there's no more farm labor jobs which means there's not that many people spending $$ in those areas so the service industry dried up in those rural towns. I think that's why a lot of rural folks are so angry. They're desperately poor, unable to bootstrap themselves or their families, everyone that has the aptitude has already fled, and those small towns are aging rapidly because the young people left. Their nest egg, their homes in most cases, is valueless. The last time the world went through a seismic economic shift like we're currently going through was the industrial revolution. Back then the revolution led to vast economic disparity, which led to political unrest, which led to some countries putting down peasant revolts. It's already coming to that in some pockets. It'll be a while before the disparity stabilizes, imo, since the global economy is continuing to evolve so rapidly.

Bang on.

[JWags85]

Anyway, the assertion that rents "surging" to just under $2k per month is obviously not driven by small towns in the USA where you can easily load up on houses around $150k a pop.

Small towns are dying and have been for a while globally because of the technology revolution. People are flocking to cities. Home prices and rents have been surging in desirable areas, and where some metros are keeping up with construction others are not which is exacerbating the problem.

Honestly my hot take on this is a bit broader: This small town dying thing is the death of an entire way of life for many americans and they feel attacked because nobody is coming to save them or their way of life (because, honestly, it's not valuable or important). There's no more farm labor jobs and buying farms is out of reach for them since major land owners have snapped up everything before it even goes on the market. So they can't own a farm, and there's no more farm labor jobs which means there's not that many people spending $$ in those areas so the service industry dried up in those rural towns. I think that's why a lot of rural folks are so angry. They're desperately poor, unable to bootstrap themselves or their families, everyone that has the aptitude has already fled, and those small towns are aging rapidly because the young people left. Their nest egg, their homes in most cases, is valueless. The last time the world went through a seismic economic shift like we're currently going through was the industrial revolution. Back then the revolution led to vast economic disparity, which led to political unrest, which led to some countries putting down peasant revolts. It's already coming to that in some pockets. It'll be a while before the disparity stabilizes, imo, since the global economy is continuing to evolve so rapidly.

I think there is also this dueling incongruent set of housing cost arguments.  You have a this 25-35 demo who is like "I don't want to/wont work in an office anymore" and insists that they will only consider WFH roles.  But they also are the ones who often claim they will never be able to afford/own a house, despite seeking out roles where they can in theory live anywhere.

Its like there is this trend of "I want WFH so I don't have to live in an insanely expensive city like NYC/SF/LA"...but I don't want to be small town/rural/farther suburbs.  And I don't necessarily blame that demo for not wanting to live in the sticks, but at least have to acknowledge the clashing of the mentalities.

[Skatastrophy]

I think there is also this dueling incongruent set of housing cost arguments.  You have a this 25-35 demo who is like "I don't want to/wont work in an office anymore" and insists that they will only consider WFH roles.  But they also are the ones who often claim they will never be able to afford/own a house, despite seeking out roles where they can in theory live anywhere.

Its like there is this trend of "I want WFH so I don't have to live in an insanely expensive city like NYC/SF/LA"...but I don't want to be small town/rural/farther suburbs.  And I don't necessarily blame that demo for not wanting to live in the sticks, but at least have to acknowledge the clashing of the mentalities.

I agree with part of your point but disagree that it's incongruous.

People want to live by things that enrich their lives. I WFH but I can walk to michelin starred restaurants, wonderful parks, a baseball stadium. I don't have to own a car (but haven't given it up yet) because we take public transit everywhere, can quickly get to top tier museums and theaters, etc.

Young people, IMO, are complaining that other cities aren't getting their crap together on the public transit and density side of things. Unless you're in one of 3 neighborhoods in Milwaukee it feels like a suburb instead of a city because you have to drive most places. And Milwaukee is way better than Southern/Western cities that were founded more recently.

This is especially important with young people who many, for the first time in their lives, moved to a walkable city called a college campus. All of their friends were within walking distance, their job, their classes, the bars and restaurants. People love that stuff in college because it's wonderful. I live in walking distance from tons of friends it's great. And only semi-affordable for young people because density is decreasing in my neighborhood since people keep throwing up $3MM-$6MM single family homes.

I mean, my god, people spend tons of money every year to go to Disney just to live a week in a walkable neighborhood (albeit one with roller coasters or whatever).

It sucks you have to be rich to live a decent lifestyle, but I don't think it's incongrous to complain about. Why live 'anywhere' when instead you can live somewhere great?

[lawdog77]

Anyway, the assertion that rents "surging" to just under $2k per month is obviously not driven by small towns in the USA where you can easily load up on houses around $150k a pop.

Small towns are dying and have been for a while globally because of the technology revolution. People are flocking to cities. Home prices and rents have been surging in desirable areas, and where some metros are keeping up with construction others are not which is exacerbating the problem.

Honestly my hot take on this is a bit broader: This small town dying thing is the death of an entire way of life for many americans and they feel attacked because nobody is coming to save them or their way of life (because, honestly, it's not valuable or important). There's no more farm labor jobs and buying farms is out of reach for them since major land owners have snapped up everything before it even goes on the market. So they can't own a farm, and there's no more farm labor jobs which means there's not that many people spending $$ in those areas so the service industry dried up in those rural towns. I think that's why a lot of rural folks are so angry. They're desperately poor, unable to bootstrap themselves or their families, everyone that has the aptitude has already fled, and those small towns are aging rapidly because the young people left. Their nest egg, their homes in most cases, is valueless. The last time the world went through a seismic economic shift like we're currently going through was the industrial revolution. Back then the revolution led to vast economic disparity, which led to political unrest, which led to some countries putting down peasant revolts. It's already coming to that in some pockets. It'll be a while before the disparity stabilizes, imo, since the global economy is continuing to evolve so rapidly.

nm
not worth it
For those that are curious. Rural population has increased since 2020, rural housing purchases has outpaced urban. Farm values have increased.

[Skatastrophy]

nm
not worth it
For those that are curious. Rural population has increased since 2020, rural housing purchases has outpaced urban. Farm values have increased.

That's technically true, but disingenuous. This is the best, most recent, data I can find from a reliable source

https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2024/february/net-migration-spurs-renewed-growth-in-rural-areas-of-the-united-states/

Net migration is positive for the first time in decades for a couple year period during covid, and it honestly barely moved the needle. And the telling quote from the article about how/where rural pop is growing:

> Most rural counties saw gains in population because of net domestic migration, with 481 growing by 2 percent or more during 2020–22. These counties are typically found on the periphery of large urban areas and in recreation and retirement destinations, such as the northern Great Lakes, the southern Appalachians and Ozarks, and the Rocky Mountains. Based on previous research, this increase in “amenity migration” (people choosing locations to live based on quality-of-life factors) is not surprising given that baby boomer retirement is reaching its peak and remote work is allowing more locational freedom for working-age adults.

I'm happy to be wrong, just prove it because I think I'm right.

[lawdog77]

That's technically true, but disingenuous. This is the best, most recent, data I can find from a reliable source

https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2024/february/net-migration-spurs-renewed-growth-in-rural-areas-of-the-united-states/

Net migration is positive for the first time in DECADES for a couple year period during covid. And the telling quote

> Most rural counties saw gains in population because of net domestic migration, with 481 growing by 2 percent or more during 2020–22. These counties are typically found on the periphery of large urban areas and in recreation and retirement destinations, such as the northern Great Lakes, the southern Appalachians and Ozarks, and the Rocky Mountains. Based on previous research, this increase in “amenity migration” (people choosing locations to live based on quality-of-life factors) is not surprising given that baby boomer retirement is reaching its peak and remote work is allowing more locational freedom for working-age adults.

I'm happy to be wrong, just prove it because I think I'm right.

Its not disingenuous.  The rural communities are not dying, just changing.

Your diatribe about anger which has no basis in facts tells more about you than it does the rural community.

[Pakuni]

Its not disingenuous.  The rural communities are not dying, just changing.

But aren't the ones growing most becoming exurbs? In which case... six and one half dozen the other?
The towns may not be dying, but their rural-ness is.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I think the lesson here is that you really can't make sweeping generalizations about small towns. Many are obviously struggling, but many are growing and thriving. And many are just kinda hanging on.

We can certainly say that the population is growing less rural, and that makes perfect sense.

[JWags85]

I agree with part of your point but disagree that it's incongruous.

People want to live by things that enrich their lives. I WFH but I can walk to michelin starred restaurants, wonderful parks, a baseball stadium. I don't have to own a car (but haven't given it up yet) because we take public transit everywhere, can quickly get to top tier museums and theaters, etc.

Young people, IMO, are complaining that other cities aren't getting their crap together on the public transit and density side of things. Unless you're in one of 3 neighborhoods in Milwaukee it feels like a suburb instead of a city because you have to drive most places. And Milwaukee is way better than Southern/Western cities that were founded more recently.

This is especially important with young people who many, for the first time in their lives, moved to a walkable city called a college campus. All of their friends were within walking distance, their job, their classes, the bars and restaurants. People love that stuff in college because it's wonderful. I live in walking distance from tons of friends it's great. And only semi-affordable for young people because density is decreasing in my neighborhood since people keep throwing up $3MM-$6MM single family homes.

I mean, my god, people spend tons of money every year to go to Disney just to live a week in a walkable neighborhood (albeit one with roller coasters or whatever).

It sucks you have to be rich to live a decent lifestyle, but I don't think it's incongrous to complain about. Why live 'anywhere' when instead you can live somewhere great?

Its incongruous cause they should be old enough to be able to process that you have to sacrifice somethings for others.  My younger sisters are 25 and 29, and they and their friends are right in the heart of what I'm talking about.  The eldest moved with her husband to Richmond cause he got a good job offer and she's remote.  They bought a solid starter house and are happy.  They have friends in NJ/NY and DC that endlessly bitch about housing but refuse to move anywhere or change anything, and only 1-2 out of the dozen or so are actually location tied.  I'm not saying move to Cheyenne or El Paso, but there is a world outside of 5 prominent metros.

The issue I have is when pressed, they never have a "ideal" of where it should be.  Where they are getting a nice starter house for $300K in a walkable city.  Its just baseless yelling or comparing to something they saw in study abroad in Europe without knowing any of the financials or cultural constraints there either.

We have a housing supply issue, but I truly wonder how many of the aforementioned people would be willing to accept what the reasonable supply solution would look like.

[Skatastrophy]

Its incongruous cause they should be old enough to be able to process that you have to sacrifice somethings for others.  My younger sisters are 25 and 29, and they and their friends are right in the heart of what I'm talking about.  The eldest moved with her husband to Richmond cause he got a good job offer and she's remote.  They bought a solid starter house and are happy.  They have friends in NJ/NY and DC that endlessly bitch about housing but refuse to move anywhere or change anything, and only 1-2 out of the dozen or so are actually location tied.  I'm not saying move to Cheyenne or El Paso, but there is a world outside of 5 prominent metros.

The issue I have is when pressed, they never have a "ideal" of where it should be.  Where they are getting a nice starter house for $300K in a walkable city.  Its just baseless yelling or comparing to something they saw in study abroad in Europe without knowing any of the financials or cultural constraints there either.

We have a housing supply issue, but I truly wonder how many of the aforementioned people would be willing to accept what the reasonable supply solution would look like.

Yeah that makes sense, thanks for explaining. We have family/friends that are similar. My advice, "why don't you just move it's not that scary, and the place you're currently living will still be there in a year if you need to go back don't worry" has not been well received historically.

[Skatastrophy]

Your diatribe about anger which has no basis in facts tells more about you than it does the rural community.

I don't think it's a diatribe but maybe I secretly hate my family, my wife's family, and my friends that live in rural areas. No matter how I feel, they're still angry as heck and because their communities are failing. All of them for the same reasons as above, all in different states. They talk about it openly at weddings and fish fries in their communities. It sucks when the only place left to shop is Dollar General, and they don't want to have to drive all the way to Madison for a half decent hospital. And they didn't want their post offices' closed.

I might be wrong, it's just a theory.

[Lennys Tap]

I don't think it's a diatribe but maybe I secretly hate my family, my wife's family, and my friends that live in rural areas. No matter how I feel, they're still angry as heck and because their communities are failing. All of them for the same reasons as above, all in different states. They talk about it openly at weddings and fish fries in their communities. It sucks when the only place left to shop is Dollar General, and they don't want to have to drive all the way to Madison for a half decent hospital. And they didn't want their post offices' closed.

I might be wrong, it's just a theory.

There are angry and unhappy people everywhere. Kind and happy ones too. If your family and friends fall into the former nobody should blame you for hating them. Just don’t be naive enough to think they’d be any less angry and unhappy if they moved.