Hell of a regular season

[DegenerateDish]

Expectations change during a season. 23-8 going in? Yeah, about right. 23-8 when you're 23-4 and have 2 home games left against meh to sub meh teams? Not so much. 12-6 conference record? Going in and not knowing the weakness of the Big East? Sure. From 12-2? Hell no. 2nd place going in? Why not? 2nd place when one stinkin' win in your last 4 means a conference title? Not a chance in the world. Meeting preseason expectations rings hollow when every star aligns to make a season special and you spit out the bit down the stretch. Barring a turnaround (BE tourney title and a S16 run) this season will be a disappointment.

For me, this sums it up perfectly. This is my favorite post of the night, as this is spot on where I’m at.

[NickelDimer]

Why do I get the sense that the last bite of this Big East shiit sandwich is going to be a loss to DePaul?

[1SE]

For me, this sums it up perfectly. This is my favorite post of the night, as this is spot on where I’m at.

Exactly. It amazes me how many people here aren't even on board with the intuition of Bayesian Updating...

[Carl]

The extremely unexpected and dramatic dip to end the regular season does not change the fact that I've had more fun watching Marquette basketball this year since I was in school. Jae and DJO come close.  This year was a ton of fun and it's not over yet!  Keep the faith.

Don't give up on them yet.

[Carl]

And a followup. 

There is no way to excuse a 4 game losing streak at this juncture in the season.  I also think it's worthwhile to accept how lucky we have gotten in the close games throughout.  Early season great bounces (Creighton!?) and world class end game free throw shooting put some games in the W column for us that honestly probably shouldn't have been. Curious what the perception would be if we swapped the W's and L's vs Creighton and Gtown this season?

Our reversion to the mean is not a reflection on our ceiling.  This team has a week to prepare for a 2 seed in a prestigious conference, and then another week to get ready for war.  The amount of doomsday posters on here baffles me.  We have all seen what this team is capable of, and frankly I still don't think there is a coach in the country that would want to draw us in the tourney. 

[brewcity77]

What do you think our floor is? 6? Could it drop to 7?

6. There was a huge dropoff from 4 to 5 and I think we just made that drop anyway. Another loss could drop us another line, but we're not falling to an 8/9 game, that's for sure.

[willie warrior]

And a followup. 

There is no way to excuse a 4 game losing streak at this juncture in the season.  I also think it's worthwhile to accept how lucky we have gotten in the close games throughout.  Early season great bounces (Creighton!?) and world class end game free throw shooting put some games in the W column for us that honestly probably shouldn't have been. Curious what the perception would be if we swapped the W's and L's vs Creighton and Gtown this season?

Our reversion to the mean is not a reflection on our ceiling.  This team has a week to prepare for a 2 seed in a prestigious conference, and then another week to get ready for war.  The amount of doomsday posters on here baffles me.  We have all seen what this team is capable of, and frankly I still don't think there is a coach in the country that would want to draw us in the tourney.

Haha. Coaches are lining up to kick Wojos ass.

[NickelDimer]

The extremely unexpected and dramatic dip to end the regular season does not change the fact that I've had more fun watching Marquette basketball this year since I was in school. Jae and DJO come close.  This year was a ton of fun and it's not over yet!  Keep the faith.

Don't give up on them yet.

I’m going to assume this is just poor word choice. Obviously you’re not saying you enjoy this team over that team

[warriorfred]

6. There was a huge dropoff from 4 to 5 and I think we just made that drop anyway. Another loss could drop us another line, but we're not falling to an 8/9 game, that's for sure.

Marquette always seems to be under-seeded in the tourney.  A first-round loss in the BET, and I would expect an 8-9 seed.

[Galway Eagle]

Marquette always seems to be under-seeded in the tourney.  A first-round loss in the BET, and I would expect an 8-9 seed.

Any year in particular you're referring to? 17, 13, 12, 11, 10, and 09 all seemed right to me. Maybe an argument for a 5 in 09 but that's the only one I see

[Jon]

Maybe we can hang up a #10 ranking like VCU does?

My Dear Fellow Aviator

VCU hung a banner celebrating a YEAR ENDING Top Ten Ranking.

Wojo could hang one reading "Temporary Top Ten Ranking"

Kinda like dry humping...

[goldeneagle91114]

Seasons are defined by NCAA success. You come in as a 2 and lose to a 15 and you’re season looks like a failure. The narrative is yet to be told.
Worst part of the loses is that a lower seed is going to make winning tougher in the games that people will remember most.

No, the worst part of the losses is that we blew a chance to beBig East champs.

[BM1090]

Any year in particular you're referring to? 17, 13, 12, 11, 10, and 09 all seemed right to me. Maybe an argument for a 5 in 09 but that's the only one I see

Agreed. I would actually argue we were overseeded in 2010.

I think 07-08 we may have been slight underseeded but not by enough to complain.

[bilsu]

I just do not think posters are recognizing how much some teams improved during the season. Villanova and MU tied with 6 teams for last place in the second half of the Big East season. MU lost the second game of every team they split the season match up with.
 
                   2nd half         1st half        Final
Xavier             6-3               3-6            9-9
Seton Hall        5-4               4-5           9-9
Creighton         5-4               4-5           9-9
Georgetown      5-4               4-5           9-9
Villanova           4-5               9-0         13-5
MU                   4-5               8-1          12-6
St. John's         4-5               4-5            8-10
Butler              4-5               3-6            7-11
Providence       4-5              3-6            7-11
DePaul             4-5             3-6            7-11

[wisblue]

Expectations change during a season. 23-8 going in? Yeah, about right. 23-8 when you're 23-4 and have 2 home games left against meh to sub meh teams? Not so much. 12-6 conference record? Going in and not knowing the weakness of the Big East? Sure. From 12-2? Hell no. 2nd place going in? Why not? 2nd place when one stinkin' win in your last 4 means a conference title? Not a chance in the world. Meeting preseason expectations rings hollow when every star aligns to make a season special and you spit out the bit down the stretch. Barring a turnaround (BE tourney title and a S16 run) this season will be a disappointment.

This describes my feeling exactly.

I had this debate last night with a moderator of a different MU basketball board. I cannot consider a season "great" (as he does) when a golden opportunity to win a rare BE title gets kicked away in the last 4 games, including 2 home losses to sub bubble teams. His spin is that it was unrealistic to expect more with Howard and Sam Hauser saddled with nagging injuries.

I said after the Villanova loss (which, while disappointing,  didn't bother me that much) that while the season had been fun to that point, I was going to be disappointed if MU didn't accomplish at least two of (1) a regular season title, which at that point looked like relatively low hanging fruit, (2) a BET title, or at a minimum MU's first trip to the final, and (3) a trip to the Sweet 16.

I refuse to apologize for raising my expectations as the season unfolded and being disappointed at how the last two weeks played out. That upward trajectory may or may not continue next season, but will likely stall the next year as MU loses 4 key seniors after next year. Missing opportunities when they present themselves is always disappointing to me because you never know if they'll come up again.

[1SE]

This describes my feeling exactly.

I had this debate last night with a moderator of a different MU basketball board. I cannot consider a season "great" (as he does) when a golden opportunity to win a rare BE title gets kicked away in the last 4 games, including 2 home losses to sub bubble teams. His spin is that it was unrealistic to expect more with Howard and Sam Hauser saddled with nagging injuries.

I said after the Villanova loss (which, while disappointing,  didn't bother me that much) that while the season had been fun to that point, I was going to be disappointed if MU didn't accomplish at least two of (1) a regular season title, which at that point looked like relatively low hanging fruit, (2) a BET title, or at a minimum MU's first trip to the final, and (3) a trip to the Sweet 16.

I refuse to apologize for raising my expectations as the season unfolded and being disappointed at how the last two weeks played out. That upward trajectory may or may not continue next season, but will likely stall the next year as MU loses 4 key seniors after next year. Missing opportunities when they present themselves is always disappointing to me because you never know if they'll come up again.

Yes, let's please put this "I would have taken 23-8" at the start of the season argument to rest once and for all.

If you are 0-0 and have 10 games left and are 50-50 in all of them, the probability of you going 10-0 is 0.1%

If you are 9-0 and have 1 game left that you are 50-50 in, the probability of you going 10-0 is 50%

The probability of us going 23-8 at the start of the season when we were 0-0 was different than the probability of us going 23-8 once we were 23-4.

Did we beat the probabilities to get to 23-4? Yes. But once we did that it had no bearing on the probabilities of the future games. Wojo raised the bar and then fell flat on his a$$ while trying to limbo under it.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

No one is saying that expectations didn't raise and that the last four games have altered the view of the season. The point is that when evaluating the success of the season you have to look at the whole picture. The good and the bad. You say it's terrible that we couldn't win the Big East with 4 opportunities. You're right. But the fact that we could lose the last four games of the season and still be 1 game out of first place is a testament to how great the first 27 games were.

[Lennys Tap]

For me, this sums it up perfectly. This is my favorite post of the night, as this is spot on where I’m at.

Thanks, Dish. Another thing to ponder - the odds against losing all of our last 4 games were almost 100-1 (.65 - Villanova x .3 - Creighton x .4 - Seton Hall x .15 - Georgetown = .0117 or less than 1.2%. If we had gone into the NCAA tournament as a 2 seed we would have had a significantly better chance of winning the whole thing than we had of losing all of our final four games. A 3 seed would have likely given us a slightly better chance. Food for thought when considering how monumental this collapse was.

[rocky_warrior]

less than 1.2%. If we had gone into the NCAA tournament as a 2 seed we would have had a significantly better chance of winning the whole thing than we had of losing all of our final four games

Well, yes, and no?  According to this, a 2 seed has about a 4.1% chance of winning it all.  So like 342% better chance to win.  That's significant!  But still you're talking about 1.2/100 vs 4.1/100.  You wouldn't bet your life savings on either, despite the 342% greater odds of winning.

https://www.boydsbets.com/bracket-tips-by-seed/

[Lennys Tap]

Well, yes, and no?  According to this, a 2 seed has about a 4.1% chance of winning it all.  So like 342% better chance to win.  That's significant!  But still you're talking about 1.2/100 vs 4.1/100.  You wouldn't bet your life savings on either, despite the 342% greater odds of winning.

https://www.boydsbets.com/bracket-tips-by-seed/

No argument that both outcomes would have been long shots, Rocky - but the fact that 2 weeks ago we had 3.4 times better chance to win the whole enchilada than we did to lose all of our last 4 games gives perspective to just how awful our collapse was.

[Jon]

Wojo has his strengths and weaknesses.  He needs to address his weaknesses in the offseason.

-Attend some coaching clinics.

-hire someone on the staff who actually knows X’s and O’s.  Let this person draw up plays.

So...basically you are saying he is utterly unprepared for a job which pays him close to 2 Clams a year

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

I think if people proposed a 23-8 season, second place in the BE and a BE record of 12-6, Most people would have signed up.  Now the fact that we lost 4 in a row absolutely sucks, especially losing the BE title like we did.
So given how well our recruiting is going, the upward trajectory makes me content that we have good things ahead.  This team has flaws especially at PG, Markus is a 2.  I am happy with the season and how it went, especially after the IU game. 
With greg, koby and possibly symir here next year, i feel good about our situation at the 1 going forward.
Slide Markus to the 2 and have him play 10-15 minutes a game at the 1.
Provided hes doing ok there and we will be much better next year.  This years experiences, good n bad, will pay huge dividends next year.

[MUDPT]

Thanks, Dish. Another thing to ponder - the odds against losing all of our last 4 games were almost 100-1 (.65 - Villanova x .3 - Creighton x .4 - Seton Hall x .15 - Georgetown = .0117 or less than 1.2%. If we had gone into the NCAA tournament as a 2 seed we would have had a significantly better chance of winning the whole thing than we had of losing all of our final four games. A 3 seed would have likely given us a slightly better chance. Food for thought when considering how monumental this collapse was.

The odds of losing the last 4 games are about the same as beating the same 4 teams the first time. In fact, the first Creighton game, is still the unlikeliest win of the year on KenPom. It sucks, but they were lucky at the start of the year and unlucky at the end, like a bizarro opposite from the 2010 MU team.

[wisblue]

I never really thought in terms of MU winning the NCAA tournament, but with a 3 seed and the momentum of a strong conference season, a trip to the Sweet 16 seemed like a good possibility. Now, facing a 5 or 6 seed, and a team that seems to have lost its confidence and is laboring to the finish, a first round exit seems depressingly likely and a trip to the Sweet 16 would be an upset.

Maybe they’ll flip the usual script and show some life in the BET.

[monkeyman34]

The title of this thread makes me sad.  12-6 is a hell of a season now, with such a weak overall conference this season? We have very low expectations at this point if that's the case.  And we think we're getting a 5 or 6 seed? At this point, I'm pretty sure we are a 7 seed at best and if we are one and done in the BET, my guess is we end up as a 9. That, in my mind, is not a "hell of a season" but a rather mediocre one.