I chose one, but admit that's optimistic. If I were taking bets, I'd set the over/under at 1.5. Wrote this in a different thread, but here's how I project things moving forward (including Ellis and Itejere):
Almost certainly staying (99%)
Tyler Kolek
Stevie Mitchell
Chase Ross
All of these guys feel like foundational pieces who are very comfortable with their projected role moving forward. No real risk of any of them jumping to pro ball. Hard to see how any would benefit from a move to another program, though maybe you could argue Ross wants to go be the immediate alpha elsewhere.
Very likely to stay (90%)
Oso Ighodaro
Kam Jones
Oso could test pro waters, but I think NIL incentives will put him close to what he would make professionally. Feels like he also has an unusually high chance of improving his draft stock with another year in college after opening eyes this season. I can't imagine Kam would take a step down in competition for an (even) bigger role and he doesn't have much by the way of professional prospects at this point.
Probably staying (75%)
Olivier Maxence-Prosper
Ben Gold
Sean Jones
David Joplin
I think if Prosper and Gold could make the same NIL money as Americans they'd be in the group above. OMax could immediately make six figures playing overseas but has a real chance to improve his draft stock if he stays another year. Gold is a bit of a wildcard, but like everyone else seems to love his teammates and Shaka. His earning prospects don't seem great at this point and my instinct is that he's pegged for a big role next year.
I think Shaka has strong belief in Sean Jones and vice versa. Jones already flashed quite a bit defensively, and I think has a path for considerable improvement offensively, even at his size. He just feels like a key Shaka guy, but maybe there's risk he'll want a bigger role elsewhere his sophomore year.
I debated putting Joplin in the group above because he seems very comfortable with Shaka and Marquette. That said, I think he probably wants a bigger, starting role by next year. If Omax and Oso both return, I could see him moving on to another program. If one leaves, I think Jop is definitely staying.
Coin flip (50%)
Emarion Ellis
By all accounts Ellis loves Shaka and his teammates. That rehab leg press video was a thing of beauty. Usually in this kind of situation this player is definitely gone, but there was enough preseason hype about his role and evidence he loves this team to give Ellis a real chance of returning.
Probably leaving (25%)
Keeyan Itejere
It's hard to see a path forward for Itejere unless Oso or a couple other big men move on. He needs minutes for his development, and would optimistically be an 8-12 min/game guy next year.