MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Cheeks on January 07, 2020, 09:36:21 PM
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Been saying this for years and not changing now. Still believe that is the right play and hate when coaches let one shot tie a game. I know this is a split decision on this, but the math never made sense to me.
Allow one shot to tie a game....OR....require someone to make one shot, miss one shot, get rebound and make a shot.
I don’t care who the coach is, I am fouling every time and have never wavered on this.
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And #FTSMatter
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Been saying this for years and not changing now. Still believe that is the right play and hate when coaches let one shot tie a game. I know this is a split decision on this, but the math never made sense to me.
Allow one shot to tie a game....OR....require someone to make one shot, miss one shot, get rebound and make a shot.
I don’t care who the coach is, I am fouling every time and have never wavered on this.
Especially once they cross half court.
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And #FTSMatter
Providence was worse from the line than us
PS- disagree on fouling up 3. It depends.
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Was way too much time left to foul in that situation. Kid hit a tough 3. It happens.
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Was way too much time left to foul in that situation. Kid hit a tough 3. It happens.
Didn't he shoot with like 4 seconds left?
Why not foul at 6-8 seconds?
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Been saying this for years and not changing now. Still believe that is the right play and hate when coaches let one shot tie a game. I know this is a split decision on this, but the math never made sense to me.
Allow one shot to tie a game....OR....require someone to make one shot, miss one shot, get rebound and make a shot.
I don’t care who the coach is, I am fouling every time and have never wavered on this.
Agreed. A Close friend who is a Power 5 HC said he was taught and always follows that you foul up 3 with 6 seconds or less. As he said, 4 things have to go right for the trailing team:
1. Make the first FT
2. Miss the second
3. Get the rebound
4. Make the shot
In nearly every case that means you go to OT at the worst. However, one time 1-4 all happened and the shooter was fouled and made the FT to win. He still fouls.
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Look at the video. Koby's guy was 35 feet away with 7 seconds. Could have fouled right at that point.
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Didn't he shoot with like 4 seconds left?
Why not foul at 6-8 seconds?
4 seconds after the ball went in so he shot it with about 6 seconds. I’m a foul up 3 guy but was ok with them not fouling in that particular situation.
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Then you’re not a foul up 3 guy if you were okay with them not fouling
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Been saying this for years and not changing now. Still believe that is the right play and hate when coaches let one shot tie a game. I know this is a split decision on this, but the math never made sense to me.
Allow one shot to tie a game....OR....require someone to make one shot, miss one shot, get rebound and make a shot.
I don’t care who the coach is, I am fouling every time and have never wavered on this.
For tonight at least, I definitely agree with you. And the way some teams shoot fts, I'd say it's getting to be a better proposition every year.
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Unless it's a hard, maybe flagrant foul, there is always a chance that he hits the shot anyway. Then what?
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Well, Providence fouled with four seconds to go on Bailey's trey. That almost backfired as he got three free throws (and the ball could have gone in).
So there's that.
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Well, Providence fouled with four seconds to go on Bailey's trey. That almost backfired as he got three free throws (and the ball could have gone in).
So there's that.
C'mon, Doc. Two very different types of fouls.
Then again, based on them not knowing the situation at the end of OT, maybe I shouldn't trust these dopes not to foul a shooter.
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Well, Providence fouled with four seconds to go on Bailey's trey. That almost backfired as he got three free throws (and the ball could have gone in).
So there's that.
Because they fouled too late. You foul as soon as the offensive player crosses center court and before they can get in a shooting position.
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C'mon, Doc. Two very different types of fouls.
Then again, based on them not knowing the situation at the end of OT, maybe I shouldn't trust these dopes not to foul a shooter.
Well, it was dumb and I am sure it's wasn't intentional but it shows crazy stuff can happen. Wojo has said in the past he thinks teams should play it out. This why JayBee was saying in that it is not so clear cut.
Personally, I think you foul.
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It was also off a timeout. In when to foul could have been drawn up in the huddle.
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Didn't he shoot with like 4 seconds left?
Why not foul at 6-8 seconds?
No. It went through the hoop with 4 seconds left. He shot it with approx 6 seconds left. To be safe (to not foul in the act of a 3) we would have had to foul with 8 seconds left. That is too soon. Just about every coach I’ve ever heard of agrees.
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No. It went through the hoop with 4 seconds left. He shot it with approx 6 seconds left. To be safe (to not foul in the act of a 3) we would have had to foul with 8 seconds left. That is too soon. Just about every coach I’ve ever heard of agrees.
Why is that 8 seconds too much? You just get the ball back, the clock ticks down a little bit, and it's that much harder for the trailing team to get a decent shot off when they get the ball back after you shoot FTs.
The coaching consensus you mentioned seems to be similar to the NFL views on PATs - erring on the side of caution.
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Of course MU should have fouled. They had the possession arrow, it was a no brainer to make that decision.
Foul up 3, after the first make, commit a blatant lane violation on the second attempt. Keep committing a lane violation every attempt thereafter until the free throw is made or Providence simultaneously commits a lane violation as well (arrow to MU).
I have no idea why teams don’t do this every time.
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Of course MU should have fouled. They had the possession arrow, it was a no brainer to make that decision.
Foul up 3, after the first make, commit a blatant lane violation on the second attempt. Keep committing a lane violation every attempt thereafter until the free throw is made or Providence simultaneously commits a lane violation as well (arrow to MU).
I have no idea why teams don’t do this every time.
Here's an article by former Providence (what a coincidence!) assistant coach Bob Walsh about that exact strategy:
http://coachbobwalsh.com/2015/03/24/the-intentional-violation/ (http://coachbobwalsh.com/2015/03/24/the-intentional-violation/)
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Less than 6 seconds you foul. Calipari doesn't like to foul. Coach K will.
Ken Pomeroy says data mixed.
Cooley made same play with his team at end of OT and it almost burned them, too.
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Didn't he shoot with like 4 seconds left?
Why not foul at 6-8 seconds?
And fouls him while he was shooting? Agree with Ners. No foul.
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And fouls him while he was shooting? Agree with Ners. No foul.
Obviously not. Foul the dribbler when they cross half court.
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And fouls him while he was shooting? Agree with Ners. No foul.
Koby's guy was 35 feet away from the basket with 7 seconds left. Should have reached in for the steal and get that foul called.
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Obviously not. Foul the dribbler when they cross half court.
Didn’t they cross half court with 10-15 seconds left? Then you are extending the game for PC.
Even at 7 seconds, they don’t have to miss the second FT. They could force an MU turnover or foul and still have 5 seconds to hit a 3. You could foul in that scenario of up 3.
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I would have had Koby foul. 7 seconds misses 2nd up 2 with 5 left we make 1 of 2 still up 3 with 5 left foul on the in bounds or on the rebound now at 4 seconds. It would have worked. Koby's guy was 35 ft from basket dribbling not in shooting position and closely guarded would have been easy to foul. I am guessing this is not practiced by wojo and he does not like that scenario or he would have a call for the foul.
Defensively we should have been switching every screen and given up the 2 instead of chasing shooters.
Then again a 25% 3pt shooter hit the shot his first make of the game
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Hindsight is always 20/20, but put me in the camp that would prefer to foul. Other than the Purdue Virginia game last year, are there really any notable instances of that strategy not working?
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Up 3 I'm not fouling until we're under 5 seconds, and then I'm not fouling a guy who is known to not be a shoot. Reaves was less than 25% from 3 this season. He hit 2 in the last 5:05 of the game...sometimes kids get lucky.
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Up 3 I'm not fouling until we're under 5 seconds, and then I'm not fouling a guy who is known to not be a shoot. Reaves was less than 25% from 3 this season. He hit 2 in the last 5:05 of the game...sometimes kids get lucky.
I agree with this.
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Up 3 I'm not fouling until we're under 5 seconds, and then I'm not fouling a guy who is known to not be a shoot. Reaves was less than 25% from 3 this season. He hit 2 in the last 5:05 of the game...sometimes kids get lucky.
Yet, Koby's guy was 35 feet away with 7 seconds left. You can go for the steal which would be hard that would result in the foul.
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Yet, Koby's guy was 35 feet away with 7 seconds left. You can go for the steal which would be hard that would result in the foul.
Exactly, even if the guy is only a 25% three point shooter, that's still 1 in 4 that the game goes OT, with a lot of scenarios where no matter how good the D is, he just hits a shot. If you foul, they either have to make then miss then get an Oboard then hit another shot, or get into a free throw shooting contest with Markus. Again, other than the Purdue Virginia E8 game, can anyone name a game where fouling didn't work? Wojo made the wrong call.
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Exactly, even if the guy is only a 25% three point shooter, that's still 1 in 4 that the game goes OT, with a lot of scenarios where no matter how good the D is, he just hits a shot. If you foul, they either have to make then miss then get an Oboard then hit another shot, or get into a free throw shooting contest with Markus. Again, other than the Purdue Virginia E8 game, can anyone name a game where fouling didn't work? Wojo made the wrong call.
No, it’s not a 1 in 4 chance if the guy is a 25% shooter. 100% of his shots aren’t under stress must-shoot scenarios
So many of you folks are bonkers
Way more to it than “well, clock says x, so foul”
PS- Lazar vs Missouri
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Also end of game I wanted to see the Bryce Drew play face guarding Howard to not let him catch send a big or long guy like Cain to mid court catch and pass to a sprinting howard for what would be a great look
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No, it’s not a 1 in 4 chance if the guy is a 25% shooter. 100% of his shots aren’t under stress must-shoot scenarios
So many of you folks are bonkers
Way more to it than “well, clock says x, so foul”
PS- Lazar vs Missouri
Fine, drop it to 15%. I'd still much rather turn the game into a free throw shooting contest with Markus on our side. Lazar vs Missou was what, a decade ago, so that game plus UVA vs PU last year are the two instances? Wojo made the wrong call.
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Exactly, even if the guy is only a 25% three point shooter, that's still 1 in 4 that the game goes OT, with a lot of scenarios where no matter how good the D is, he just hits a shot. If you foul, they either have to make then miss then get an Oboard then hit another shot, or get into a free throw shooting contest with Markus. Again, other than the Purdue Virginia E8 game, can anyone name a game where fouling didn't work? Wojo made the wrong call.
It is not 1 in 4 because we would still have the ball with almost 5 seconds left. Of course the best play we could come up with was a running contested 45 footer with that time. I am still agnostic about whether or not to foul there. We got a poor 3 point shooter to take a tough, not completely in rhythm shot with a hand in his face, which I would think would lower his chances of making to something less than 25% anyway. I suppose I wish we would have fouled because of the way it worked out, but I won't second guess that particular decision.
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It is not 1 in 4 because we would still have the ball with almost 5 seconds left. Of course the best play we could come up with was a running contested 45 footer with that time. I am still agnostic about whether or not to foul there. We got a poor 3 point shooter to take a tough, not completely in rhythm shot with a hand in his face, which I would think would lower his chances of making to something less than 25% anyway. I suppose I wish we would have fouled because of the way it worked out, but I won't second guess that particular decision.
Whatever percentage you think that a player hits a three there, IMO it's higher than either; a.) PC makes the first ft, PC intentionally misses the second ft, PC gets the offensive rebound, PC hits another shot; or b.) PC hits both fts, is still down by one and in all likelihood we're going to shoot fts ourselves.
I know that in scenario b.) we would still have to inbound the ball without turning it over but consider; 1.) we can run the baseline, 2.) iirc we still had a TO if we couldn't get it in, 3.) we had two players north of 85% from the line that would be handling the ball, 4.) we successfully performed exactly what we would have needed to do 3 or 4 times to close out Nova, with some of those coming after Markus fouled out. Wojo made the wrong call.
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Whatever percentage you think that a player hits a three there, IMO it's higher than either; a.) PC makes the first ft, PC intentionally misses the second ft, PC gets the offensive rebound, PC hits another shot; or b.) PC hits both fts, is still down by one and in all likelihood we're going to shoot fts ourselves.
I know that in scenario b.) we would still have to inbound the ball without turning it over but consider; 1.) we can run the baseline, 2.) iirc we still had a TO if we couldn't get it in, 3.) we had two players north of 85% from the line that would be handling the ball, 4.) we successfully performed exactly what we would have needed to do 3 or 4 times to close out Nova, with some of those coming after Markus fouled out. Wojo made the wrong call.
You’re missing do much. Need to understand your players too, and how they’ve practiced. Can you trust a “good foul” — how high is the risk that they foul on a shot by accident?
All depends. Many factors to consider
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You’re missing do much. Need to understand your players too, and how they’ve practiced. Can you trust a “good foul” — how high is the risk that they foul on a shot by accident?
All depends. Many factors to consider
Sure it's not 100%, and there is always something that can go wrong, but I still maintain that Wojo made the wrong call. You're a big numbers guy, what are the odds of an offensive rebound after a missed ft? What are the odds that Markus loses a ft contest where he is spotted anywhere between 1 and 3 points? You're right that there are many factors to consider, and if this were the days of Derrick, I might reconsider, but Markus and Koby are both north of 85% from the line on the year, I'd trust them to get the job done.
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Sure it's not 100%, and there is always something that can go wrong, but I still maintain that Wojo made the wrong call. You're a big numbers guy, what are the odds of an offensive rebound after a missed ft?
Depends on what the shooting team is trying to do. Overall the % has declined over the years and probably sits just over 10% now... but many teams don’t ”try”
Maybe 20% on a focused rush (which we perhaps should have done w/BB last night, ugh)
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Depends on what the shooting team is trying to do. Overall the % has declined over the years and probably sits just over 10% now... but many teams don’t ”try”
Maybe 20% on a focused rush (which we perhaps should have done w/BB last night, ugh)
I know it would go up with a "focused rush", but 20% seems a little generous. It's also actually difficult to have a "good miss" when you're shooting fts.
I guess I'd just rather have the option of "our" players making plays. You can play the best D, and opponents still just hit shots. A good box out is 100% on you, in-bounding the ball is on you, making your own fts is on you. With this team, and the ft shooters it has, I will always be in favor of extending the game in a situation like last night. To each their own.
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I would have had Koby foul. 7 seconds misses 2nd up 2 with 5 left we make 1 of 2 still up 3 with 5 left foul on the in bounds or on the rebound now at 4 seconds. It would have worked. Koby's guy was 35 ft from basket dribbling not in shooting position and closely guarded would have been easy to foul. I am guessing this is not practiced by wojo and he does not like that scenario or he would have a call for the foul.
Defensively we should have been switching every screen and given up the 2 instead of chasing shooters.
Then again a 25% 3pt shooter hit the shot his first make of the game
You don't want to have Koby foul in that scenario because he already had 4 so would have been out of the game. In the event they make both, you have just removed your best free throw shooter and 2nd best ball handler from the game, right when you need him.
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You’re missing do much. Need to understand your players too, and how they’ve practiced. Can you trust a “good foul” — how high is the risk that they foul on a shot by accident?
All depends. Many factors to consider
A player knowing he is going to be fouled can just throw the ball up towards the basket. Not a guarantee, but the player may be given three free throws on a shot that has no chance of going in.
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A player knowing he is going to be fouled can just throw the ball up towards the basket. Not a guarantee, but the player may be given three free throws on a shot that has no chance of going in.
Who says you have to foul the ball handler? I had a bad angle because of where I was sitting, but if the ball ever got inside the three point line it should have happened then. Look at Theo's 5th (I believe) foul, running over a guy setting a screen. Plenty of ways to foul to both guarantee no 3 fta, and get a worse ft shooter at the line. The fear that someone is going to flail their arms and try to get the refs to give them 3 fts is way oerblown.
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Majerus used to say that fouling when up 3 set up the only possible way you could give up 4 points and lose the game: kid hits the first, misses the second, they grab the rebound and there's a wide-open 3-pointer because that so often happens after an offensive rebound. And congrats, you've just grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory by overthinking it.
Having said that, I like fouling with 3-4 seconds left, like when a guy is rushing up the court and you grab him near the midcourt line. Wojo did just that in a game last year IIRC. Fouling a guy with 7-8 seconds left, though ... that can be pretty dangerous. The guy doesn't even need to miss FTs on purpose; just make the 2 FTs to cut it to 1 and force a TO either on the IB pass or immediately after it's inbounded. We don't have the greatest press break in history.
We did have the arrow, so it makes it a little more favorable for the foul-em-no-matter-what strategy, but I'm OK with how we played the situation. They ended up having a terrible shooter take a pressure shot with a 6-8 guy's hand in his face.
What I really didn't like was what happened after the 3 went in. We ran a play to get Markus open and curling toward midcourt but I guess McEwen didn't see him and ended up throwing a pass to Bailey and getting the ball back, and we had no chance at a decent shot. Get that ball to Markus on the fly, and he probably gets a decent look at a 25-30 footer -- the kind of shot Junior hit to tie UConn back in 2013.
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We don't have the greatest press break in history.
People seem to say this almost every year, and I really don't see it. Granted I haven't seen every possession of MU basketball this year, but I honestly can't remember a time where we haven't been able to get the ball past midcourt this season. Breaking the PC press would have been very similar to the Nova press, which we did multiple times, and multiple times without Markus. Koby has had his faults, but has been great in this regard. 6'-4" so can see over people to make the right pass, and also hitting his fts so can just take the foul if necessary.
Another potential problem that really shouldn't have bothered us if we had chosen to foul. Again, no way works 100% of the time, but you really couldn't as for better personnel suited to deal with fouling.
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People seem to say this almost every year, and I really don't see it. Granted I haven't seen every possession of MU basketball this year, but I honestly can't remember a time where we haven't been able to get the ball past midcourt this season. Breaking the PC press would have been very similar to the Nova press, which we did multiple times, and multiple times without Markus. Koby has had his faults, but has been great in this regard. 6'-4" so can see over people to make the right pass, and also hitting his fts so can just take the foul if necessary.
Another potential problem that really shouldn't have bothered us if we had chosen to foul. Again, no way works 100% of the time, but you really couldn't as for better personnel suited to deal with fouling.
OK
Of course, had McEwen fouled, he wouldn't have been on the court to break the press and/or shoot FTs.
I'm not going to argue with you about this. I think it was a close call, not a no-brainer one way or the other. Majerus, whose coaching ability most Scoopers seem to respect, said never foul in that situation. Others always foul. I think there was a little too much time on the clock. You think otherwise. We lost, so I guess you're right.
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Bump, good coaches learn from their mistakes.
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The most promising thing about the Georgetown game is that Wojo is reading MUScoop, fouling up 3 under 10 seconds.
With our armchair coaching finally happening on-court, the sky is the limit.
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The most promising thing about the Georgetown game is that Wojo is reading MUScoop, fouling up 3 under 10 seconds.
With our armchair coaching finally happening on-court, the sky is the limit.
I was behind Wojo at Arby’s Glendale drive-thru the other day too.
#bncmatta
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The most promising thing about the Georgetown game is that Wojo is reading MUScoop, fouling up 3 under 10 seconds.
With our armchair coaching finally happening on-court, the sky is the limit.
Made me nervous that Howard picked up his 4th foul to do it. The box out was outstanding on the ensuing free throw. Theo and Bailey had great box outs on their guys towards the baseline, and Sacar and Koby filled the gap. The only way we weren't going to get that rebound was a long one. Well executed.
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Different situation with the play starting with under 10 seconds left. Even today I think the foul came too quickly. Opponent was nowhere near the three point and was moving laterally. Think Markus could have let a couple of more ticks come off the clock. Worked out though
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Different situation with the play starting with under 10 seconds left. Even today I think the foul came too quickly. Opponent was nowhere near the three point and was moving laterally. Think Markus could have let a couple of more ticks come off the clock. Worked out though
I thought so too. I think in that time out Ewing anticipated that MU would foul and he told Mosely to dribble it out to get fouled quickly. It just seemed like Mosely was dribbling East-West there waiting for the hack.
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Made me nervous that Howard picked up his 4th foul to do it. The box out was outstanding on the ensuing free throw. Theo and Bailey had great box outs on their guys towards the baseline, and Sacar and Koby filled the gap. The only way we weren't going to get that rebound was a long one. Well executed.
Picking up his fourth foul with 5 seconds to play is no big deal. Sure, it could backfire if there's OT, but the odds are slim. I didn't mind it at all myself. I was actually happy to see us have a clear plan in that scenario. It seemed obvious that Wojo wanted to foul, and we executed right away. Well done.
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Picking up his fourth foul with 5 seconds to play is no big deal. Sure, it could backfire if there's OT, but the odds are slim. I didn't mind it at all myself. I was actually happy to see us have a clear plan in that scenario. It seemed obvious that Wojo wanted to foul, and we executed right away. Well done.
It was the right play today, and it would've been the winning play against Providence. The reason why having Howard pick up his 4th foul is no big deal is because OT is such a slim possibility. Have your smartest player foul the opposing team near half court, where there's almost no chance of fouling a shooter, and you will rarely be disappointed.
We are 1 foul from being 4-2 in conference.
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It was the right play today, and it would've been the winning play against Providence. The reason why having Howard pick up his 4th foul is no big deal is because OT is such a slim possibility. Have your smartest player foul the opposing team near half court, where there's almost no chance of fouling a shooter, and you will rarely be disappointed.
We are 1 foul from being 4-2 in conference.
One of the biggest advocates for fouling in these late game situation, but this isn't true. We are 1 well executed foul, plus one well executed box out, plus one rebound, plus at least 2 made free throws away from being 4-2 in conference. Straight up, the percentages say that it is a toss-up, but as stated earlier in the thread, I'm always in favor of putting the game in our players hands, rather than the other teams players.
Well executed end of game situation today. Props to Wojo, he made the right call.
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Agreed. Which is why I don’t under why some on scoop say..”well if a poor 3 point shooter hits that shot to tie the game...all you can do is tip your cap.” What? Illogical.
No. Take a 25% 3 point shooter out of the equation. Hell, take a 1% 3 point shooter out of the equation. Also, don’t understand why you would go under the double screens and trail the shooter when you are up 3 points, and the only way they tie is a 3 pointer. No 3s.
That means NO 3s. Love seeing the approach today. Grabbed the win....didn’t allow Georgetown a chance.
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Been saying this for years and not changing now. Still believe that is the right play and hate when coaches let one shot tie a game. I know this is a split decision on this, but the math never made sense to me.
Allow one shot to tie a game....OR....require someone to make one shot, miss one shot, get rebound and make a shot.
I don’t care who the coach is, I am fouling every time and have never wavered on this.
Agreed. Today Mu fouled too soon. Believe there was about 6 seconds left when the foul was called at about 30 feet from basket.
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Providence was worse from the line than us
PS- disagree on fouling up 3. It depends.
On what?
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On what?
I think it's situational, but has nothing to do with the opponent, and everything to do with our roster makeup. For example, Zar and the midgets, not sure I would trust them to be able to get the board after the missed ft. Any team with JFB, I'd trust him to absolutely shut down any attempt. Some of Buzz's not so good shooting teams, wouldn't trust to be able to hit the fts. This team, it would take some very unique foul trouble/fouling out situation for me to not want to go for the foul.
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I would still do it, regardless of a good rebounding team, etc.
There has to be stats on this situation.
% of games lost when up three and leading team fouls under 10 seconds.
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One of the biggest advocates for fouling in these late game situation, but this isn't true. We are 1 well executed foul, plus one well executed box out, plus one rebound, plus at least 2 made free throws away from being 4-2 in conference. Straight up, the percentages say that it is a toss-up, but as stated earlier in the thread, I'm always in favor of putting the game in our players hands, rather than the other teams players.
Well executed end of game situation today. Props to Wojo, he made the right call.
Outstanding comment, DJ.
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Outstanding comment, DJ.
Agreed.
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Bump, it's on wojo
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Not only that, but Xavier can't hit FTs to save their lives.
Awful coaching
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#wojohasnomojo
You unnatural carnal knowledgeing foul period. Especially on the road.
Nit bound baby!!!!
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Torrance did foul. Unfortunately the refs didn’t call it before he handed off to Marshall for the shot. Good job by Torrance not to stay committed to the foul and catch a potential four-point play
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He did not foul. There was no attempt even for a mild reach in.
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He did not foul. There was no attempt even for a mild reach in.
Stop with the lies.
https://twitter.com/BenSteeleMJS/status/1222727205651795970?s=19
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Torrance did foul. Unfortunately the refs didn’t call it before he handed off to Marshall for the shot. Good job by Torrance not to stay committed to the foul and catch a potential four-point play
This. The problem in the execution was how late the foul was going to come. If you're going to foul in that situation, you've got to pick your player up somewhere in the backcourt and the foul needs to come two steps after midcourt.
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Symir bumped with no call.