Beat NOVA and?

[Marquette4life]

If we beat NOVA will we almost be a lock for the tourny?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Assuming we can get to 10 win, yes. 9 May even do it with that win. But winning Tuesday makes the path to 10 wins much easier, as did the win yesterday.

[brewcity77]

Personal opinion, as long as we win the games we are supposed to, we already are. Beat the teams that are clearly at the bottom, that's 9 wins. Split the other home games, that's 11. No way we get left out in that scenario.

If we did beat 'Nova, my focus would shift from hoping for a tourney bid to hoping for the 1 or 2 seed in the Big East Tournament. I don't think people realize just how much the schedule opens up after Tuesday. We will have played 5 of the 6 toughest games on the league schedule come Wednesday morning.

[Tugg Speedman]

If we beat NOVA will we almost be a lock for the tourny?

Didn't we say this last year we had a top 10 win on the road against Providence?

[PGsHeroes32]

If we beat NOVA will we almost be a lock for the tourny?

Not a lock because we could still lose out.

But beating Nova gives us 11 chances(1BET game) to win 5 to get to 10 wins in conference. Which we would be a lock to make it with.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I appreciate the optimism, but lets get one thing straight. There is a 3% chance we beat Nova. I do like our chances against X though. Think we steal one from them this year.

[brewcity77]

Didn't we say this last year we had a top 10 win on the road against Providence?

Someone may have, but at 1-2 in league play at that point, I'd be surprised. Being 5-3 with the worst of our schedule behind us would be monumentally different than 1-2 with the toughest games yet to come.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I appreciate the optimism, but lets get one thing straight. There is a 3% chance we beat Nova. I do like our chances against X though. Think we steal one from them this year.

3%?? Sagrin gives us 33%, and I bet Kenpom is a little north of that.

I don't think we'll beat em, but we definitely have a chance on our home court.

[Smokin' Jae]

Didn't we say this last year we had a top 10 win on the road against Providence?

Absolutely not, the big difference between this year and last year is how poorly designed our non conference schedule was. We had almost no room for any error last year because of how weak that schedule was. Much better but not great non conference schedule this year has made us look a lot better to the computers and given us some leeway.

[brewcity77]

I appreciate the optimism, but lets get one thing straight. There is a 3% chance we beat Nova. I do like our chances against X though. Think we steal one from them this year.

I'd give us a much, much better chance than that against 'Nova, or frankly against any college team anywhere. Not guaranteeing anything, but when you can shoot like we can, you have a chance against almost anyone on the right night.

[cheebs09]

Didn't we say this last year we had a top 10 win on the road against Providence?

Doubtful. Our non conference schedule was a big hurdle to get over.

[PGsHeroes32]

I appreciate the optimism, but lets get one thing straight. There is a 3% chance we beat Nova. I do like our chances against X though. Think we steal one from them this year.

Beating X at home is not stealing one.

They might be a little better then us.

But on our home court you don't go in expecting a loss in that game

[jsglow]

Personal opinion, as long as we win the games we are supposed to, we already are. Beat the teams that are clearly at the bottom, that's 9 wins. Split the other home games, that's 11. No way we get left out in that scenario.

If we did beat 'Nova, my focus would shift from hoping for a tourney bid to hoping for the 1 or 2 seed in the Big East Tournament. I don't think people realize just how much the schedule opens up after Tuesday. We will have played 5 of the 6 toughest games on the league schedule come Wednesday morning.

Define? Are you counting the two Nova games and the 3 road games against the other 'big 3'? What else?  I think I agree that our toughest remaining game after Tuesday is down in Cinci.  But I also think going 2-1 at home against Butler, Creighton and X will be a major challenge.

[muguru]

Brew is dead on..after tomorrow we could see this team go on a loooooong winning streak with how much the schedule opens up..but damn you cant help but think "what if" they had that Butler and Seton Hall games back and be 6-1 right now.

[brewcity77]

Define? Are you counting the two Nova games and the 3 road games against the other 'big 3'? What else?  I think I agree that our toughest remaining game after Tuesday is down in Cinci.  But I also think going 2-1 at home against Butler, Creighton and X will be a major challenge.

My opinion...

vs Villanova
@ Villanova
@ Butler
@ Creighton
@ Xavier
@ Seton Hall

Considering last year and how their bigs match up with us, that's why I include Seton Hall. Especially falling as early in the season as it did.

[Oldgym]

I don't expect a loooong winning streak.  Before the Creighton game, the conventional wisdom around here was that this team would steal a couple wins it wasn't supposed to have, but lose a headscratcher or two somewhere in the softer part of the schedule.  CU was a great win, but I don't think one game against a team that had just lost its starting PG for the season changes that wisdom.

That said, I feel a lot better about Selection Sunday right now than I did this time last year.

[mu03eng]

On the road against a fired up Villanova team, we scored the most points against them than any other team this season. If we beat Villanova at home (unlikely but certainly possible) it's not so much about what the win does for us with tournament possibilities but more so, it gives a really strong indicator of how good this team could be.

It took a historic collapse against Butler to lose that game...if you beat Creighton and Villanova, the Butler loss starts to look like the outlier not a representative of the body of work. If they beat Nova you should expect the team to go on at least a 7 game winning streak with the possibility of finishing out the rest of the season going 9-3 or 8-4.

Let's also recognize that if Marquette loses to Villanova that MU is still in a good position for the rest of the season.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I don't think we are used to cheering on a lights out shooting MU team.

I don't think we are used to cheering on an ole defensive team.

Hang on for the ride.  It will be up and down.  10 wins is achievable but it may not come from the games we think they will.

[tower912]

Whatever combination gets MU to 10-8 creates dancing.    Beating Nova makes 10-8 easier, brings 12-6 into play, and helps seeding. 

[fjm]

I would just prefer (if we make the tourney) to not be playing in the first 4 in Dayton.

That being said, I can't stress to myself, enough, that my goal was a top 3 NIT seed this year. So tourney is a cherry on top.

[MUMountin]

I don't expect a loooong winning streak.  Before the Creighton game, the conventional wisdom around here was that this team would steal a couple wins it wasn't supposed to have, but lose a headscratcher or two somewhere in the softer part of the schedule.  CU was a great win, but I don't think one game against a team that had just lost its starting PG for the season changes that wisdom.

That said, I feel a lot better about Selection Sunday right now than I did this time last year.

I'd give us a much, much better chance than that against 'Nova, or frankly against any college team anywhere. Not guaranteeing anything, but when you can shoot like we can, you have a chance against almost anyone on the right night.

I agree with both of these statements.  The reality is that because we are a shooting team, we are going to have great nights when we can beat just about anyone, but on a bad shooting night could lose to anyone in the Big East.  So, a win against Nova is a possibility (not likely, but possible), but so is dropping a game in the midst of that soft underbelly of the schedule.

That said, I do agree that 10-8 gets us there.  I'm just expecting us to drop a game that we all think we should win, and so need to manufacture another win out of the 5 remaining against the top 4.  Don't know if Nova is that game (X seems to be the most susceptible, but I'm also worried about them getting their yips out now and coming on strong by the time we play them).

[mu03eng]

I agree with both of these statements.  The reality is that because we are a shooting team, we are going to have great nights when we can beat just about anyone, but on a bad shooting night could lose to anyone in the Big East.  So, a win against Nova is a possibility (not likely, but possible), but so is dropping a game in the midst of that soft underbelly of the schedule.

That said, I do agree that 10-8 gets us there.  I'm just expecting us to drop a game that we all think we should win, and so need to manufacture another win out of the 5 remaining against the top 4.  Don't know if Nova is that game (X seems to be the most susceptible, but I'm also worried about them getting their yips out now and coming on strong by the time we play them).

I think the bad shooting concern is a bit of an urban myth with this team.

A) they are really good at shooting the ball, this isn't Buzz's DJO teams where it was fluky shooting, this team is statistically very good.
B) they are top 25 in the country on KenPom at 2pt efficiency, which may be some jumpshots but is a lot about shots at the rim(especially with Luke Fischer, JjJ, and Haanif).

If they are having a poor shooting night against a middle or low tier team, they can go inside and still win. Yes, that won't really help against the likes of a Villanova but that was always going to be the case.

I think, heartbreak aside, we need to start viewing this team as an above average team with a legitimate shot to make the tournament.

[GB Warrior]

Many of us said at the beginning of the year that this team would have the ability to win -or lose - any game. That's certainly true (though I overestimated how fun/thrilling/not infuriating that would be).

I have tempered expectations that winning this game is indicative of a run. Certainly,  it makes us all but a lock for the tourney if we hold serve. But the winning and losing formulas are exactly the same. This team hasn't evolved into a different team, the shots just started falling. There will be games down the stretch that they don't,  and I don't think our defense will be able to compensate. We're Nova before Nova was the Nova of today.

The future certainly feels brighter than it did after the Butler game,  but this year's team still has flaws that it was able to mask against Creighton.

[Loose Cannon]

If they are having a poor shooting night against a middle or low tier team, they can go inside and still win. Yes, that won't really help against the likes of a Villanova but that was always going to be the case.

I think, heartbreak aside, we need to start viewing this team as an above average team with a legitimate shot to make the tournament.

I agree. It's also interesting to contemplate how so many didn't see this.  Professional  and Amateur Sport Experts (?) me, many on this Board,  TV sports media, etc.  What did most of us Miss? Or was it somewhat of a Lemming mentality.

Side note  Did anyone notice the ESPN TV screen of the Duke/Miami game had each teams Fouls just like the TO's remaining.  I really like this feature rather than waiting and waiting for the TV guys to say something. 

[mu03eng]

Many of us said at the beginning of the year that this team would have the ability to win -or lose - any game. That's certainly true (though I overestimated how fun/thrilling/not infuriating that would be).

I have tempered expectations that winning this game is indicative of a run. Certainly,  it makes us all but a lock for the tourney if we hold serve. But the winning and losing formulas are exactly the same. This team hasn't evolved into a different team, the shots just started falling. There will be games down the stretch that they don't,  and I don't think our defense will be able to compensate. We're Nova before Nova was the Nova of today.

The future certainly feels brighter than it did after the Butler game,  but this year's team still has flaws that it was able to mask against Creighton.

I'm gonna nitpick you here. We here not because shots started falling but because our offense went to a whole other level, than shots falling. The offense has never been the issue this season, even in our loses we scored more than enough and efficiently enough to win. The issue has always been the defense. We will have nights where the offense isn't Creighton on the road good, but it will still be a top 25 offense. The question with any run here is if the defense can be competent when we have a really good offensive performance as opposed to an amazing offensive performance.

The good news is, even with a bad defense this offense(even just really good) should be enough to beat St John's twice, DePaul and Georgetown once more, and Providence at least once. That is 9 wins, which means the defense only has to be competent enough to allow the offense to win one(preferably) two out of the following: @Providence, Both Xaviers, Butler, and Creighton. 1-4 in that group is very, very doable. 2-3 is doable, assuming Providence isn't that great.