05-06 Resume vs. 09-10 Resume

[TallTitan34]

I was looking back to the three amigos freshman year and found a lot of similarities in the resume of that team with the resume of this team.  While the conference wins were stronger in 05-06, we only had one road victory at Notre Dame.

I'm not saying we should get in because that team did.  I understand the strength of teams in the tourny varies every year.  I just thought it was interesting how similar the two teams were.

Preseason Big East Pick
12th Place	12th Place
Preseason Tournament Wins
South Carolina	Xavier
Oral Roberts	Michigan
OOC Losses
Nebraska (A)	NC State (H)
Wisconsin (A)	Wisconsin (A)
Notable Conference Wins
UConn (H)	UConn (A)
Georgetown (H)	Georgetown (H)
Notre Dame (A)	Providence (A)
Notre Dame (H)	????
Pittsburgh (H)	????
Bad Conference Losses
Cncinnati (H)	DePaul (A)
Conference Tourny
Georgetown (L)	????

[Benny B]

That Cincy game sucked the life out of my weekend.  Not only did they lose, but Novak broke his streak of consecutive free throws.  Devastating.

For some reason, the DePaul loss this year just doesn't tear at me so.

[TallTitan34]

The Cincy game was also a letdown game right after the bug UConn win.

[chapman]

I'm not saying we should get in because that team did.  I understand the strength of teams in the tourny varies every year.  I just thought it was interesting how similar the two teams were.

You're right that the strength of the teams/tournament field is the variable.  But ignoring that, also remember the fallacy some were making at the beginning of the year when comparing these teams as it to pertains to a potential NCAA bid: saying we need to do what that team did to get in is likely an overestimation.  That team was a seven seed, we're just shooting for a 12 (at the moment).

[Nukem2]

That Cincinnati loss was most definitely not a bad loss.

[MUfan12]

That Cincinnati loss was most definitely not a bad loss.

Didn't one of their guys blow out a knee, and they ended up barely missing the tourney that year?

Kirkland maybe?

[Nukem2]

Didn't one of their guys blow out a knee, and they ended up barely missing the tourney that year?

Kirkland maybe?

I believe so...

[bma725]

Didn't one of their guys blow out a knee, and they ended up barely missing the tourney that year?

Kirkland maybe?

Basically yes.  

2005-06 was one of those epic seasons that could only happen to Cincy.  Huggins gets fired and replaced by Andy Kennedy.  Tyree Evans was released from his LOI over the summer when he got arrested.  Abdul Herrera never got cleared academically and had to sit out the whole season.  DeAndre Coleman transferred after 6 games, Erick Murrary was arrested and then dismissed after 6 games, and Armein Kirkland sustained a season ending injury and only played 16 games.  

Despite all that they went 19-11(8-8) during the regular season, and made it to the quarterfinals of the NIT.  Definitely not a bad loss by any stretch of the imagination.

[GGGG]

Basically yes.  

2005-06 was one of those epic seasons that could only happen to Cincy.  Huggins gets fired and replaced by Andy Kennedy.  Tyree Evans was released from his LOI over the summer when he got arrested.  Abdul Herrera never got cleared academically and had to sit out the whole season.  DeAndre Coleman transferred after 6 games, Erick Murrary was arrested and then dismissed after 6 games, and Armein Kirkland sustained a season ending injury and only played 16 games.  

Despite all that they went 19-11(8-8) during the regular season, and made it to the quarterfinals of the NIT.  Definitely not a bad loss by any stretch of the imagination.

Was Kennedy ever seriously in the running for the permanent job?  He's doing a pretty decent job at Ole Miss, while Cronin has been disappointing.

[bma725]

Seriously? No. 

Athletic department people and prominent alumni pushed for him to get the job, but Zimpher wasn't listening.

[JWags85]

I think we are all underestimating the tremendous impact Ammo had on the 05-06 team.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I was looking back to the three amigos freshman year and found a lot of similarities in the resume of that team with the resume of this team.  While the conference wins were stronger in 05-06, we only had one road victory at Notre Dame.

I'm not saying we should get in because that team did.  I understand the strength of teams in the tourny varies every year.  I just thought it was interesting how similar the two teams were.

Preseason Big East Pick
12th Place	12th Place
Preseason Tournament Wins
South Carolina	Xavier
Oral Roberts	Michigan
OOC Losses
Nebraska (A)	NC State (H)
Wisconsin (A)	Wisconsin (A)
Notable Conference Wins
UConn (H)	UConn (A)
Georgetown (H)	Georgetown (H)
Notre Dame (A)	Providence (A)
Notre Dame (H)	????
Pittsburgh (H)	????
Bad Conference Losses
Cncinnati (H)	DePaul (A)
Conference Tourny
Georgetown (L)	????

Interesting comparison, but the UCONN that year was ranked as high as #1 that season, the UCONN this year isn't that good.  Also, I'm not sure beating Providence on the road is a notable win.

There area a lot of similarities to the two seasons, but some of those are bit of a stretch in my opinion.

[TallTitan34]

Interesting comparison, but the UCONN that year was ranked as high as #1 that season, the UCONN this year isn't that good.  Also, I'm not sure beating Providence on the road is a notable win.

There area a lot of similarities to the two seasons, but some of those are bit of a stretch in my opinion.

That's why I said the conference wins were stronger in that season.  Notre Dame was our only road victory the entire year.

[Clarence]

Just like the 05-06 season, I think the Pitt game at home is the most important resume game of the season.  Our biggest resume deficiency right now is RPI (somewhere between 58 and 62) and beating a top 25 RPI team like Pitt could go a long way towards increasing our RPI.   We could also use some wins from Rutgers, Michigan and Providence to boost our wins over top 100 RPI teams. 

[gumbyandpokey]

The DePaul loss is about 1000 times more damaging than that Cincy loss.

The NC State loss at home is also a killer, imo.

Wins over Louisville and Pitt are a necessity.  Lose one of those and you're out.

[Nukem2]

Just like the 05-06 season, I think the Pitt game at home is the most important resume game of the season.  Our biggest resume deficiency right now is RPI (somewhere between 58 and 62) and beating a top 25 RPI team like Pitt could go a long way towards increasing our RPI.   We could also use some wins from Rutgers, Michigan and Providence to boost our wins over top 100 RPI teams.  

Wishful thinking as Rutgers simply will have a declining RPI and Providence finishes out with G-Town, @ Nova, WVU, Cuse, @ USF, @ Pitt and Seton Hall.  the Friars will be in the fring pan and their current 102 RPI will be long gone.  Michigan will probably end up near its current 140 RPI.

[LAZER]

The DePaul loss is about 1000 times more damaging than that Cincy loss.

The NC State loss at home is also a killer, imo.

Wins over Louisville and Pitt are a necessity.  Lose one of those and you're out.

I think you can count on an 11-7 Big East conference record and a 21 win team to be in the tournament.  In absolutely no way are Marquette's tournament hopes over with a loss to one of those teams

[Benny B]

The DePaul loss is about 1000 times more damaging than that Cincy loss.

I think we can agree that the Cincy loss did ZERO damage to MU's tourney hopes that year seeing as how they did make the tourney, after all.

So if DePaul is 1000 times worse, that means that the DePaul loss will also do zero damage to MU's tourney hopes.

This is what I've been saying all along.

[gumbyandpokey]

I think you can count on an 11-7 Big East conference record and a 21 win team to be in the tournament.  In absolutely no way are Marquette's tournament hopes over with a loss to one of those teams

I hope so, but am afraid that loss to DePaul may require MU to have both of those wins.  So far, imo, MU has one "good win" (Georgetown), one "bad loss" (NC State) and one "horrendous, off-the-charts bad loss" (De Paul).

It's amazing when you think how close MU was to having a really, really good season.  If they just had won the games they seemingly had won....

[Sir Lawrence]

'05-'06.  That's the year we lost to Alabama in the tourney, yes?  I sure hope any comparison with that team has a better ending.....

[RJax55]

It's amazing when you think how close MU was to having a really, really good season.  If they just had won the games they seemingly had won....

Didn't realize that the season was already over.

[Benny B]

Wishful thinking as Rutgers simply will have a declining RPI and Providence finishes out with G-Town, @ Nova, WVU, Cuse, @ USF, @ Pitt and Seton Hall.  the Friars will be in the fring pan and their current 102 RPI will be long gone.  Michigan will probably end up near its current 140 RPI.

Keep in mind that 75% of your RPI calculation is based on your opponent's record and schedule.  Even if PC went 1-6 or 0-7 on that stretch, they could theoretically still improve their RPI simply by virtue of playing such a strong schedule to close out the season - it all depends on the final records of those 7 teams (and their opponents).

[Clarence]

Hypothetical end of season:

USF - W
Pitt - L (Close)
@ Cincy - L
@ St. John's - W
@ Seton Hall - L
Louisville - W(Blow Out)
Notre Dame  - W

19-11 and 10-8

Let's say 1-1 in Big East tourney with the Win against Seton Hall and the loss to Syracuse (competetive, but Cuse handles us down the stretch).

20-12 overall

Do we get in? 

[g0lden3agle]

Hypothetical end of season:

USF - W
Pitt - L (Close)
@ Cincy - L
@ St. John's - W
@ Seton Hall - L
Louisville - W(Blow Out)
Notre Dame  - W

19-11 and 10-8

Let's say 1-1 in Big East tourney with the Win against Seton Hall and the loss to Syracuse (competetive, but Cuse handles us down the stretch).

20-12 overall

Do we get in? 

I say iffy given your scenario.  However, I would be disappointed with this team going 3-3 down the stretch as you have projected.  All of the remaining 6 games are more than winnable, and I would go so far as to say we manage a 5-1 record down the stretch (I'm forever the optimist).  If we can go 4-2 or 5-1 in these final 6 and win at least 1 in the BET, I would be surprised if we don't get in.

I'd rather MU just wins the BET outright so we don't have to worry come selection sunday. 

[Tom Crean's Tanning Bed]

10-8 will not do it this year, especially as any further losses will likely be to bubble teams or just bad teams like St. John's.  11-7 is the only way in IMO.

[Clarence]

I think we can get in with 10 conference wins it just matters who those wins are against.  In my opinion we need to beat either Pitt or Louisville, beat both USF and ND and win one of the road games we'll get in.  If we lose to both Pitt and Louisville tehn we need to run the table on everyone else. 

[NersEllenson]

I'm confident 4-3 the rest of the way regardless of how the 4 wins come..and 1 Big East Tourney win will get MU in.  There is no way the committee will keep MU out considering it will have played Villanova (a likely 2 seed) to, two, 2-point losses out of the tourney.  Plus you can point to WVU game as a reason to include MU given WVU will probably be a 3 or 4 seed at worst.  DePaul can be seen as an abberation.

[RawdogDX]

I'm confident 4-3 the rest of the way regardless of how the 4 wins come..and 1 Big East Tourney win will get MU in.  There is no way the committee will keep MU out considering it will have played Villanova (a likely 2 seed) to, two, 2-point losses out of the tourney.  Plus you can point to WVU game as a reason to include MU given WVU will probably be a 3 or 4 seed at worst.  DePaul can be seen as an abberation.

i keep telling everyone that moral victories count as 1/3 a win.  We are looking goood with 19 real wins.

[gumbyandpokey]

Hypothetical end of season:

USF - W
Pitt - L (Close)
@ Cincy - L
@ St. John's - W
@ Seton Hall - L
Louisville - W(Blow Out)
Notre Dame  - W

19-11 and 10-8

Let's say 1-1 in Big East tourney with the Win against Seton Hall and the loss to Syracuse (competetive, but Cuse handles us down the stretch).

20-12 overall

Do we get in? 

In that hypothetical, no way they get in.  The Seton Hall loss would kill it.

One more win and they are right on that bubble.

[Clarence]

I also think that it matters where we fall in the Big East pecking order.  I am convinced that the league is going to get 7 bids but 8 is a real stretch.  Assuming the first five are Cuse, Nova, WVA, Gtown and Pitt, that leaves 2 more spots.  If we finish 10-8 and clearly in 6th place we should be OK, but if we are 10-8 and in a 3 or 4 way tie for 6th place then it is much more precarious.

[Golden Avalanche]

In that hypothetical, no way they get in.  The Seton Hall loss would kill it.

One more win and they are right on that bubble.

Why would Seton Hall kill it? They've already beaten Tournament teams Louisville and Pitt in the Rock. Granted, the Hall won't finish as high as people hoped but they earned some credit with those wins and it certainly wouldn't be as bad losing in Jersey as it was in Chicago.

I think Pittsburgh would be the worst loss of that scenario. Pitt and MU are on the same level. Can't lose to teams on your level at home when battling for an NCAA spot. That's what kills your hopes.

[Fightin 411]

Who would you take in a game between the 05-06 and 09-10 teams?  Would you take chapman, james, mcneal and a novak plus a matthews/barro/burke/amo bench over this year's team?

My head tells me to take the 05-06 team...lots of talent...final four experience...explosive guard play and sharpshooter novak...

But my heart tells me to take this year's team.  So much heart, deadly three point shooting...a better in game coach

I think I would take the 05-06 team if you held a gun to my head.  Which team would play better D?

How fun would it to see lazar matched up with novak!  Hey I guess it could happen someday in the league...

[Doris Burkes Thong]

Freakin Jean Felix dashed all our hopes that year.

[gumbyandpokey]

Why would Seton Hall kill it? They've already beaten Tournament teams Louisville and Pitt in the Rock. Granted, the Hall won't finish as high as people hoped but they earned some credit with those wins and it certainly wouldn't be as bad losing in Jersey as it was in Chicago.

I think Pittsburgh would be the worst loss of that scenario. Pitt and MU are on the same level. Can't lose to teams on your level at home when battling for an NCAA spot. That's what kills your hopes.

Losing at Seton Hall alone doesn't do the damage.  That loss coupled with the DePaul disaster is what would keep MU out.  It's tough to get a bid when you lose to two of the bottom feeders of the conference.

[Benny B]

It's tough to get a bid when you lose to two of the bottom feeders of the conference.

So by that logic, you're saying that if Kansas loses to Iowa State this Saturday and to Colorado next Saturday, the committee will deny KU a tourney berth.

It's just spectacular that the selection committee has such clear rules about who gets invited to the dance.  Really takes the whole guess work out of the process.

[Marquette84]

So by that logic, you're saying that if Kansas loses to Iowa State this Saturday and to Colorado next Saturday, the committee will deny KU a tourney berth.

It's just spectacular that the selection committee has such clear rules about who gets invited to the dance.  Really takes the whole guess work out of the process.

There's a difference between MU and Kansas.

KU is #1 in the RPI, 23-1 overall with an 8-1 record against the top 50.
MU is #57 in the RPI, 15-8 overall, with a 2-6 record against the top 50.

Therefore, KU losing the the two bottom feeders will cost them seed.
MU losing to the two bottom feeders will cost a bid.