Tesla Model 3 Unveil

[mu03eng]

If the sales pitch is "Have a Tesla 3 for daily driving, you'll save $ because you won't have a gas bill," but you have to own an extra gas-powered vehicle to make it a viable option. You'll burn up a lot of those savings in insurance (and financing if you don't own the vehicles outright).

If the sales pitch is "Have a Tesla 3 for daily driving, you'll save the planet even if it costs you more $ to do so," I don't think that plays as well in the $30-40k price point market than it does in the $90-110k market. People are pinching pennies to send kids to school/pay for healthcare/etc, to have buy a $40k indulgence at the green confessional is hard for me to wrap my head around.

Really, I think it's as simple as it works if you have driving habits that keep you in the range. If you don't, it doesn't. Like Tesla said (and someone pointed out here) they think 90% of drivers will have no issue with the range. That means 10% will.

The range is really no different of a restriction than where/how mass transit is adopted. There a lot of places where mass transit makes sense because of density, but a lot of places it doesn't. There will be a lot of places where the range of the vehicle will be sufficient for the majority of required activities, and those places will see large adoption. I think it will be much more regionally based and will be very much a suburban adoption. That last part will be interesting given the trend toward city living.

[martyconlonontherun]

If the sales pitch is "Have a Tesla 3 for daily driving, you'll save $ because you won't have a gas bill," but you have to own an extra gas-powered vehicle to make it a viable option. You'll burn up a lot of those savings in insurance (and financing if you don't own the vehicles outright).

If the sales pitch is "Have a Tesla 3 for daily driving, you'll save the planet even if it costs you more $ to do so," I don't think that plays as well in the $30-40k price point market than it does in the $90-110k market. People are pinching pennies to send kids to school/pay for healthcare/etc, to have buy a $40k indulgence at the green confessional is hard for me to wrap my head around.

Really, I think it's as simple as it works if you have driving habits that keep you in the range. If you don't, it doesn't. Like Tesla said (and someone pointed out here) they think 90% of drivers will have no issue with the range. That means 10% will.

Do you only have 1 car? I would say that most families have 2 cars, and due to the price, I doubt they are aiming for young 20 year olds who are single. If you have 2 cars, then the Tesla for one of them is probably cheaper than 2 gas powered cars in terms of powering them.

"It's pretty indulgent/impractical to have a Tesla for 80% of your driving and a gasoline powered car for those other times. I would have to keep two cars and drive them about 50-50. It's impractical.

I love Telsa, would love to have a Tesla, but the range thing is a real issue for some people. Just waving your hands and saying "it's not an issue for most people most of the time" doesn't really address it.''

I really don't see your complaint. Yeah, this population excludes people in the country and young singles with 1 car.  Has Tesla said this car is for everyone? It isn't. But for their demographic (I'm assuming Males/females ages 28-50 in urban/suburban areas, which is a huge demographic), this car is very practical. This isn't some SUV made for road trips up north but rather a nice car for daily commutes. Most people in their demographic have (or have access to) a 2nd car. How is this any different then needed a SUV for packing luggage or moving stuff when you everyday car is a small/midsize car?

Even if you only have 1 car and you travel, you would have to be pretty extreme case for this not to work. I drive to madison regularly from the east side of Milwaukee. I could get there and back and still have enough juice to drive around town. I know my hotel downtown has a charging port, along with some groceries in town, and a charging port on the east side. This is in year 2015. I'm assuming by the time this roles out in 2019, there will be charging ports at gas stations and other areas.

The biggest problem for me would be roadtrips cross country, which I sometimes like to do. That said, I wouldn't be taking my Tesla to put on a couple thousand miles while packing it with luggage. And as Tesla said, I would just take the wife's gas powered car or swap with my dad who would love to drive my tesla for a week. I fit their demographic along with lots of other people. This isn't "impractical" for most people.

[GOO]

One Tesla is plenty for me.  I won't need a back up.  However, I bet there are plenty of people with a back up car that own Tesla's or other electric cars.

It is no different than friends of mine who have to have a big pickup truck (need they say) to pull a boat twice a year, and then have a commuter car for getting back and forth to work, etc.  Or others who have a sports car or "luxury" car for summer use and another car for winter and bad weather days.

To me having two cars is a waste, but a significant percentage of the population, it is normal.  Amongst my friends it is more common for them to have two vehicles for their personal use than one.

[Tugg Speedman]

Do you only have 1 car? I would say that most families have 2 cars, and due to the price, I doubt they are aiming for young 20 year olds who are single. If you have 2 cars, then the Tesla for one of them is probably cheaper than 2 gas powered cars in terms of powering them.

"It's pretty indulgent/impractical to have a Tesla for 80% of your driving and a gasoline powered car for those other times. I would have to keep two cars and drive them about 50-50. It's impractical.

I love Telsa, would love to have a Tesla, but the range thing is a real issue for some people. Just waving your hands and saying "it's not an issue for most people most of the time" doesn't really address it.''

I really don't see your complaint. Yeah, this population excludes people in the country and young singles with 1 car.  Has Tesla said this car is for everyone? It isn't. But for their demographic (I'm assuming Males/females ages 28-50 in urban/suburban areas, which is a huge demographic), this car is very practical. This isn't some SUV made for road trips up north but rather a nice car for daily commutes. Most people in their demographic have (or have access to) a 2nd car. How is this any different then needed a SUV for packing luggage or moving stuff when you everyday car is a small/midsize car?

Even if you only have 1 car and you travel, you would have to be pretty extreme case for this not to work. I drive to madison regularly from the east side of Milwaukee. I could get there and back and still have enough juice to drive around town. I know my hotel downtown has a charging port, along with some groceries in town, and a charging port on the east side. This is in year 2015. I'm assuming by the time this roles out in 2019, there will be charging ports at gas stations and other areas.

The biggest problem for me would be roadtrips cross country, which I sometimes like to do. That said, I wouldn't be taking my Tesla to put on a couple thousand miles while packing it with luggage. And as Tesla said, I would just take the wife's gas powered car or swap with my dad who would love to drive my tesla for a week. I fit their demographic along with lots of other people. This isn't "impractical" for most people.

If you go into a showroom (not dealership) and ask for the sales pitch, the first question they will ask you is how many cars do you have.  If the answer is zero, most likely they will steer you away from it.

Tesla says 70% of the people inquiring in the showrooms are recommended to not buy a Tesla.  Of course, until now that has been for either the Model S or X which goes for over $100k (80% to 90% of all Tesla's order are the most expensive fully loaded version).

It is really a niche car for rich urban people.   The hope is the Model 3 changes this ... we'll find out in about 3 years.

[jficke13]

Do you only have 1 car? I would say that most families have 2 cars, and due to the price, I doubt they are aiming for young 20 year olds who are single. If you have 2 cars, then the Tesla for one of them is probably cheaper than 2 gas powered cars in terms of powering them.

"It's pretty indulgent/impractical to have a Tesla for 80% of your driving and a gasoline powered car for those other times. I would have to keep two cars and drive them about 50-50. It's impractical.

I love Telsa, would love to have a Tesla, but the range thing is a real issue for some people. Just waving your hands and saying "it's not an issue for most people most of the time" doesn't really address it.''

I really don't see your complaint. Yeah, this population excludes people in the country and young singles with 1 car.  Has Tesla said this car is for everyone? It isn't. But for their demographic (I'm assuming Males/females ages 28-50 in urban/suburban areas, which is a huge demographic), this car is very practical. This isn't some SUV made for road trips up north but rather a nice car for daily commutes. Most people in their demographic have (or have access to) a 2nd car. How is this any different then needed a SUV for packing luggage or moving stuff when you everyday car is a small/midsize car?

Even if you only have 1 car and you travel, you would have to be pretty extreme case for this not to work. I drive to madison regularly from the east side of Milwaukee. I could get there and back and still have enough juice to drive around town. I know my hotel downtown has a charging port, along with some groceries in town, and a charging port on the east side. This is in year 2015. I'm assuming by the time this roles out in 2019, there will be charging ports at gas stations and other areas.

The biggest problem for me would be roadtrips cross country, which I sometimes like to do. That said, I wouldn't be taking my Tesla to put on a couple thousand miles while packing it with luggage. And as Tesla said, I would just take the wife's gas powered car or swap with my dad who would love to drive my tesla for a week. I fit their demographic along with lots of other people. This isn't "impractical" for most people.

I regularly drive to courthouses in Green Bay (250 mile round trip) and Marinette (close to 300 round trip). I, with some regularity, am up in the counties a few west of there (longer). It wouldn't work for me, and I've copped to the fact that I am in the 10% of people who Tesla has identified as "out of their range" drivers.

[Tugg Speedman]

Tesla announced today that pre-orders are now 325,000

[martyconlonontherun]

Tesla announced today that pre-orders are now 325,000

I really hate the use of the term pre-order. Usually when you pre-order something you put down a non-refundable deposit or pay for the whole thing. This really is nothing more than a glorified hand-raiser. I know i won't buy unless I'm in the sweet spot of 18 months from now with the tax credit. Any sooner or later and I probably won't. That's not even considering any advancement in other cars.  If this was a true pre-order I bet they would have around 50K.

[reinko]

Tesla announced today that pre-orders are now 325,000

Does Tesla plan on using these down payments for product development?  They are 375K now,  so close to 400 million in cash gotta help out a bit with how much Tesla is burning through,  a"ina?

[buckchuckler]

Tesla announced today that pre-orders are now 325,000

Still well, well short of the amount of Toyota Camrys sold last year.  While 325K is a huge number for a niche manufacturer like Tesla, it is a blip on the radar (though if everyone that is on the list buys one, it will put them in the neighborhood of Mercedes and BMW-- not globally in the US).  Again, there were about 17 million new cars sold last year. 

[Spotcheck Billy]

Tesla And Other Tech Giants Scramble For Lithium As Prices Double
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Tesla-And-Other-Tech-Giants-Scramble-For-Lithium-As-Prices-Double.html

“In order to produce a half million cars per year…we would basically need to absorb the entire world’s lithium-ion production.”

[mu03eng]

Tesla And Other Tech Giants Scramble For Lithium As Prices Double
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Tesla-And-Other-Tech-Giants-Scramble-For-Lithium-As-Prices-Double.html

“In order to produce a half million cars per year…we would basically need to absorb the entire world’s lithium-ion production.”

Just wait until all the horror stories about the pollution and lost human capital (dead and injured workers) start rolling out regarding the mining of lithium.

[Tugg Speedman]

Still well, well short of the amount of Toyota Camrys sold last year.  While 325K is a huge number for a niche manufacturer like Tesla, it is a blip on the radar (though if everyone that is on the list buys one, it will put them in the neighborhood of Mercedes and BMW-- not globally in the US).  Again, there were about 17 million new cars sold last year.

Your argument sounds a lot like something that was said in 1916 ... "it's nice that Mr. Ford is getting strong pre-orders for that Model T thingy, but the fact remains that people are buying millions of horses a year."

[buckchuckler]

Your argument sounds a lot like something that was said in 1916 ... "it's nice that Mr. Ford is getting strong pre-orders for that Model T thingy, but the fact remains that people are buying millions of horses a year."

Nevermind.  Im done. 

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

Elon Musk Confirms Tesla's Model 3 Has Nearly 400,000 Orders

http://fortune.com/2016/04/21/tesla-elon-musk-model-3-orders/

[tower912]

Despite consumer reports trashing Tesla

[Tugg Speedman]

Despite consumer reports trashing Tesla

They did?  The Model S has its highest safety rating in the history of the magazine.

[tower912]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/04/19/tesla-shares-fall-consumer-reports-warns-suv-bugs/83233912/
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-reliability-idUSKCN0SE2C520151020

I have little doubt that Tesla will get it worked out.    Even the major auto companies have quality issues when rolling out new models.   I admire Musk's vision and drive to force the issue of electic cars.   

[GOO]

Just wait until all the horror stories about the pollution and lost human capital (dead and injured workers) start rolling out regarding the mining of lithium.

No doubt that will happen.  It will most likely be totally illogical given the same things happen for all kinds of raw materials, from coal to iron, etc. But what is news and emotional, doesn't have to be logical or pass the common sense test.

 Also, wait until a few Tesla driverless cars result in deaths.. it will be hugh news and everyone will say Wow we have to stop this driverless car stuff... Congress will have hearing and blue committees will be appointed to investigate... etc... while 90 deaths a day go unnoticed and uncovered from conventional drivers each and every day in the USA.  No different than an electric car starting on fire... big news... yet once every couple of weeks one can pass a burnt out gas car on the interstate going into chicago... not news..

[GOO]

Does Tesla plan on using these down payments for product development?  They are 375K now,  so close to 400 million in cash gotta help out a bit with how much Tesla is burning through,  a"ina?

Yes, that money is not held in trust accounts.  Into the general funds.  It will be used for production.  If they go belly up or run out of cash, you lose your 1K.

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

No doubt that will happen.  It will most likely be totally illogical given the same things happen for all kinds of raw materials, from coal to iron, etc. But what is news and emotional, doesn't have to be logical or pass the common sense test.

 Also, wait until a few Tesla driverless cars result in deaths.. it will be hugh news and everyone will say Wow we have to stop this driverless car stuff... Congress will have hearing and blue committees will be appointed to investigate... etc... while 90 deaths a day go unnoticed and uncovered from conventional drivers each and every day in the USA.  No different than an electric car starting on fire... big news... yet once every couple of weeks one can pass a burnt out gas car on the interstate going into chicago... not news..

What a cynical bunch... Why choose to focus on this part of the rollout of some pretty cool technology, which we have greater access to as a result of Tesla.

[GOO]

No focusing on it, just replying.  But practically, that is how Media and people's minds work.

I can't wait for the tech, mostly for safety reasons. Convenience yes, but mostly for the added safety.   

I have my deposit in and am focused on all the good that will come from what Tesla is doing.  That was just a side note in response to another poster.

[martyconlonontherun]

No focusing on it, just replying.  But practically, that is how Media and people's minds work.

I can't wait for the tech, mostly for safety reasons. Convenience yes, but mostly for the added safety.   

I have my deposit in and am focused on all the good that will come from what Tesla is doing.  That was just a side note in response to another poster.

This is how I feel. I really do think that within 15-20 years it will be socially frowned upon to be driving manually. 30k deaths/year from car accidents, with 10K involving DUIs. All it takes is a death of a family member from an avoidable accident and you pros of driving are greatly overshadowed. If the technology is there, we might as well use it.

I know I will be pissed if my car got smashed up by a guy who turned off his autopilot so he could experience the joy of driving himself. Driving isn't a right and if there are safer, affordable options, they should be put into place.