The War in Ukraine

[Scoop Snoop]

After Putin is gone, no matter how that happens, then what? Who will his successor be, or probably more important, how will his successor rule?

Putin's rationale for the invasion is straight out of Hitler's prewar playbook. He had to rescue, liberate the Germans living in Czechoslovakia from oppression, so the Nazis occupied the country. After the war, it was proven that he ordered German soldiers dressed in Polish army uniforms to stage an "attack" on Germany near their border with camera crews positioned to film it all. Of course, the narrative was that Germany had to protect the motherland and crush Poland, beginning WW11. All media was strictly controlled, just like Russia's is now.

Until a solid majority of the Russian people turn against not only Putin but all that he stands for, the threats to Europe and much of the rest of the world will remain. The Russian people need to become like the post war Germans. 

Meanwhile, there is only one country poised to win big time from this war-China. If Russia has to turn to China to bail it out from the sanctions, Russia may effectively become a subsidiary of China Inc. Maybe we will see Russia listed on the stock exchanges of the world.

[forgetful]

After Putin is gone, no matter how that happens, then what? Who will his successor be, or probably more important, how will his successor rule?

Putin's rationale for the invasion is straight out of Hitler's prewar playbook. He had to rescue, liberate the Germans living in Czechoslovakia from oppression, so the Nazis occupied the country. After the war, it was proven that he ordered German soldiers dressed in Polish army uniforms to stage an "attack" on Germany near their border with camera crews positioned to film it all. Of course, the narrative was that Germany had to protect the motherland and crush Poland, beginning WW11. All media was strictly controlled, just like Russia's is now.

Until a solid majority of the Russian people turn against not only Putin but all that he stands for, the threats to Europe and much of the rest of the world will remain. The Russian people need to become like the post war Germans. 

Meanwhile, there is only one country poised to win big time from this war-China. If Russia has to turn to China to bail it out from the sanctions, Russia may effectively become a subsidiary of China Inc. Maybe we will see Russia listed on the stock exchanges of the world.

Not disagreeing with you, but wasn't that our playbook in Iraq also. We needed to liberate the people from the oppression of Saddam, and then manufactured evidence of WMDs. Even the first Iraq war, we first told Saddam we would do nothing regarding Kuwait, then fabricated evidence of atrocities in Kuwait.

Pretty much every nation is guilty of false narratives in every war of aggression.

Wars are terrible. What is happening in Ukraine is an atrocity. But it is far from unusual in terms of historical context.

[MuggsyB]

Not disagreeing with you, but wasn't that our playbook in Iraq also. We needed to liberate the people from the oppression of Saddam, and then manufactured evidence of WMDs. Even the first Iraq war, we first told Saddam we would do nothing regarding Kuwait, then fabricated evidence of atrocities in Kuwait.

Pretty much every nation is guilty of false narratives in every war of aggression.

Wars are terrible. What is happening in Ukraine is an atrocity. But it is far from unusual in terms of historical context.

Much different situation from a geopolitical standpoint.  Scoop Snoop's analysis is spot-on.

[forgetful]

Much different situation from a geopolitical standpoint.  Scoop Snoop's analysis is spot-on.

I guess, if you think that Europe matters, and the Middle East and it's people are just pawns...then sure.

His analysis is right though regarding China. China is winning. Everyone else is losing.

[MuggsyB]

I guess, if you think that Europe matters, and the Middle East and it's people are just pawns...then sure.

His analysis is right though regarding China. China is winning. Everyone else is losing.

No.  And if it were up to me we wouldn't allow genocides but as you know we did nothing in Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Darfur, etc.  It's about the overall  implications of Russian genocide and expansion.

[Scoop Snoop]

Not disagreeing with you, but wasn't that our playbook in Iraq also. We needed to liberate the people from the oppression of Saddam, and then manufactured evidence of WMDs. Even the first Iraq war, we first told Saddam we would do nothing regarding Kuwait, then fabricated evidence of atrocities in Kuwait.

Pretty much every nation is guilty of false narratives in every war of aggression.

Wars are terrible. What is happening in Ukraine is an atrocity. But it is far from unusual in terms of historical context.

Iraq: Just as Lincoln changed the rationale of the Civil War from preserving the union to ending slavery when he needed to keep the public committed to the war ( not to mention having an opportunity embarrass Britain when their recognition of the Confederacy was still a very real possibility ), Bush changed the rationale from WMD to Iraqi Freedom. The intelligence regarding WMD was provided in large part by the man who eventually took over Iraq after we invaded. How convenient! The "manufactured evidence" was provided by Iraqis. It was not properly vetted by American Intelligence as it most certainly should have been.

Kuwait: We bombed the lining crap out of Kuwait. Where are you coming up with the narrative that we told Saddam we would do nothing? I hired many employees from Refugee Resettlement in Richmond. One man from Kuwait apparently suffered from PSTD. When planes were rerouted from the airport to directly over our building due to bad weather, he totally freaked out, scrambled under a work table, shaking. My guess is that we actually did more than "nothing". I can provide many more war stories from my employees. Just name the war or conflict-Bosnia, Iraq, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Viet Nam, massacres in African countries, etc. and I will provide their horror stories for you. While I never went through anything like they did, I have been brought almost to tears hearing their stories.

Every nation and war: Finally, something that we agree upon, but in vastly different measures.

1) Scale  I read your post to mean that we are/have been really no better than that Russians since you stated your thoughts without qualification or context. To state that America and our allies have never, been guilty of crimes in war is simply naive. There are several significant differences though between what we have done and what Russia is doing. They have "bravely" targeted schools, hospitals, apartment buildings, theaters used as shelters with 'CHILDREN" written in huge letters in a plea to be spared. They have massacred a huge number (total to be determined) of civilians in Bucha. Here's your opportunity to insert "Oh yeah? What about the My Lai massacre? Horrible? Hell yes! Note that Lieutenant Calley was not congratulated on his bravery by our president. He was court martialed and held in utter contempt by the American public. Contrast that with Putin's and many Russians pride in the butchery. Oh, let's remember the word scale. We have not innocent in our military activities, but what I see as your equivalency (again, you failed to qualify your remarks, so I'm running with my take) is what really set me off.

2) After the war Since the thread is about war in Europe, let's revisit what happened after Germany surrendered. Russia: stayed for 45 years as an uninvited guest in Eastern and Central European countries. Crushed two revolts-Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. Stole whatever they wanted from those countries. They even disassembled factories and bridges in Germany and other countries and brought the materials to Russia. USA: Spent a bizillion (example of MU 82's math) dollars via the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe. Founded NATO and provided much of the cost, training and other resources.

So much for equivalency.
 

[Hards Alumni]

No.  And if it were up to me we wouldn't allow genocides but as you know we did nothing in Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Darfur, etc.  It's about the overall  implications of Russian genocide and expansion.

Russia a dump, you're way too worried about a country that is backwards.  This isn't the USSR of the 50s.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

As suspected, the U.S. has been sharing targeting information with Ukraine, both incoming and outgoing. Meanwhile, the Putin wing continues to mouth Russia's talking points for them.

U.S. intel helped Ukraine protect air defenses, shoot down Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops
https://news.yahoo.com/u-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-160006854.html

Rand Paul echoes Putin's talking points on Ukraine while arguing with Blinken over Russia's motives for invading
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/rand-paul-echoes-putin-s-talking-points-on-ukraine-while-arguing-with-blinken-over-russia-s-motives-for-invading/ar-AAWCUVj?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=dae7c60483a7489b9d9fa5503234e22e

[JWags85]

As suspected, the U.S. has been sharing targeting information with Ukraine, both incoming and outgoing. Meanwhile, the Putin wing continues to mouth Russia's talking points for them.

U.S. intel helped Ukraine protect air defenses, shoot down Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops
https://news.yahoo.com/u-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-160006854.html

Rand Paul echoes Putin's talking points on Ukraine while arguing with Blinken over Russia's motives for invading
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/rand-paul-echoes-putin-s-talking-points-on-ukraine-while-arguing-with-blinken-over-russia-s-motives-for-invading/ar-AAWCUVj?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=dae7c60483a7489b9d9fa5503234e22e

Which was the immediately decried by Kinzinger and others.  Not like it was some agreed party chorus.  It sounds more like Rand Paul being a moron while trying to be partisan and pedantic

[tower912]

Rand-ian

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Kinzinger, the guy the GOP hates? If you think Rand is an isolated case you are mistaken. But, that's the end of my opinion, I'll try to keep the thread clean.

[Pakuni]

Which was the immediately decried by Kinzinger and others.  Not like it was some agreed party chorus.  It sounds more like Rand Paul being a moron while trying to be partisan and pedantic

Do you believe Adam Kinzinger is archetypal of today's Republican member of Congress?
Or to put it another way, on a scale of Kinzinger to Taylor Greene, where do you think most House Republicans fall these days?

[Scoop Snoop]

Rand Paul's stunt is gold to Putin, but Biden's statements that Putin needs to go combined with calling him a war criminal, butcher, (all very true) and whatever else he has said serve only to solidify the support of the Russian people behind Putin. Anti-war protests in Russia have been smashed, but if there was any chance they would become so widespread like they were in 1991 when an estimated 500,000 protestors brought down the government, I think Biden, like Paul, has handed Putin a gift by running his mouth. Add to that Blinken's and Austin's stating that our goal is to weaken Russia (again, true, but why say it publicly?) and Russians will rally behind Putin even more. Biden not only at least approved of their statements in advance but, I believe, more than likely instructed them to make them.           

[MU82]

Rand Paul's stunt is gold to Putin, but Biden's statements that Putin needs to go combined with calling him a war criminal, butcher, (all very true) and whatever else he has said serve only to solidify the support of the Russian people behind Putin. Anti-war protests in Russia have been smashed, but if there was any chance they would become so widespread like they were in 1991 when an estimated 500,000 protestors brought down the government, I think Biden, like Paul, has handed Putin a gift by running his mouth. Add to that Blinken's and Austin's stating that our goal is to weaken Russia (again, true, but why say it publicly?) and Russians will rally behind Putin even more. Biden not only at least approved of their statements in advance but, I believe, more than likely instructed them to make them.           

You say those things to rally EU countries and other allies, and to show strength.

I doubt any of those statements will have any real affect on the Russian people; they get all their news filtered through Putin, anyway.

It's far worse that we have vocal Putin sympathizers in "leadership" positions within our country.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Rand Paul's stunt is gold to Putin, but Biden's statements that Putin needs to go combined with calling him a war criminal, butcher, (all very true) and whatever else he has said serve only to solidify the support of the Russian people behind Putin. Anti-war protests in Russia have been smashed, but if there was any chance they would become so widespread like they were in 1991 when an estimated 500,000 protestors brought down the government, I think Biden, like Paul, has handed Putin a gift by running his mouth. Add to that Blinken's and Austin's stating that our goal is to weaken Russia (again, true, but why say it publicly?) and Russians will rally behind Putin even more. Biden not only at least approved of their statements in advance but, I believe, more than likely instructed them to make them.           

Yeah, I think Biden's comments, directly or through his Cabinet, have a near zero effect on the level of support for Putin in Russia. As 82 said, they are for the consumption of the rest of the world. Russians are only getting what Putin wants them to hear through his tightly controlled media.

Rally your people to war and control all media--it's been Putin's playbook (and autocrats everywhere) forever.

[Scoop Snoop]

You say those things to rally EU countries and other allies, and to show strength.

I doubt any of those statements will have any real affect on the Russian people; they get all their news filtered through Putin, anyway.

It's far worse that we have vocal Putin sympathizers in "leadership" positions within our country.

1) EU countries, especially the ones that suffered through 45 years of Russian occupation, do not need an American president to rally them. They get it. They are far, far ahead of us on this. Let's not insult their intelligence. Notice that Macron, in his desperate attempt(s) to influence blood thirsty Putin, has refrained from name calling or defining the goal as weakening Russia (although it most certainly is).

2) The news filtered through Putin includes Biden's remarks and our Secretaries of State and Defense defining our goal as the weakening of Russia. How can that NOT draw them rally behind their leader? There are good reasons why his handlers try to keep Biden to stick to statements prepared by them.

3) I agree that the sympathizers do a lot of damage, especially when our former president glowingly admired Putin's "genius" and "savvy" soon after the initial invasion. To put it mildly, I am not a supporter of either party, but so far the Republicans have been the offenders. Give the Squawks Squad a little more time and I am sure they will chime in.

[Pakuni]

1) EU countries, especially the ones that suffered through 45 years of Russian occupation, do not need an American president to rally them. They get it. They are far, far ahead of us on this. Let's not insult their intelligence. Notice that Macron, in his desperate attempt(s) to influence blood thirsty Putin, has refrained from name calling or defining the goal as weakening Russia (although it most certainly is).

Such comments aren't intended to "rally" those countries. They're intended to show them they we get it, we understand the existential threat they face from Putin and that we have their backs. And that, frankly, is something very unlike what they heard from the previous administration that consistently sucked up to Putin and repeatedly threatened to abandon its NATO allies.

You want he U.S. government to take its foreign policy cues from Macron and the French? That's a new one.

2) The news filtered through Putin includes Biden's remarks and our Secretaries of State and Defense defining our goal as the weakening of Russia. How can that NOT draw them rally behind their leader? There are good reasons why his handlers try to keep Biden to stick to statements prepared by them.

Influencing the Russian population - which, in many ways, is beyond influence - is a far, far less important goal than influencing our allies in Europe.

[Scoop Snoop]

Such comments aren't intended to "rally" those countries. They're intended to show them they we get it, we understand the existential threat they face from Putin and that we have their backs. And that, frankly, is something very unlike what they heard from the previous administration that consistently sucked up to Putin and repeatedly threatened to abandon its NATO allies.

You want he U.S. government to take its foreign policy cues from Macron and the French? That's a new one.

Influencing the Russian population - which, in many ways, is beyond influence - is a far, far less important goal than influencing our allies in Europe.

Diplomats and national leaders are supposed to watch what they say very carefully. It's part of their job.

Agree on the bolded, no question.

The Russian population was influenced enough in 1991 to put 500,000 people on the streets and force the military government out. I would like to see a repeat performance. Likely? No. Possible? Yes. We have already influenced our allies in Europe. I would like to see a squeeze play on Putin.

[Spotcheck Billy]

The Russian population was influenced enough in 1991 to put 500,000 people on the streets and force the military government out. I would like to see a repeat performance. Likely? No. Possible? Yes. We have already influenced our allies in Europe. I would like to see a squeeze play on Putin.

The Russian media in 1991 cannot be compared to the 2022 Russian media under Putin. I'd wager that was the reason 500,000 were able to protest then.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

The Russian population was influenced enough in 1991 to put 500,000 people on the streets and force the military government out. I would like to see a repeat performance. Likely? No. Possible? Yes. We have already influenced our allies in Europe. I would like to see a squeeze play on Putin.

While a general uprising from within would be optimal, I think the chances are virtually zero after more than two decades of Putin tightening his grip. As we saw early, protests were put down quickly and effectively. I don't believe Putin would allow mass protests of the magnitude necessary to force him out, nor am I sure there is enough dissent to make it possible.

A palace coup seems more likely, and even that is wishing upon a star IMO unless things get bad economically, really bad.

[NCMUFan]

My fear is that Putin is terminally ill with a short life time window. I know that if someone is evil, that would be a typical excellent scenario.
In Putin's case, he may have a "What do I care, I won't be around" mentality.

[Jockey]

While a general uprising from within would be optimal, I think the chances are virtually zero after more than two decades of Putin tightening his grip. As we saw early, protests were put down quickly and effectively. I don't believe Putin would allow mass protests of the magnitude necessary to force him out, nor am I sure there is enough dissent to make it possible.

A palace coup seems more likely, and even that is wishing upon a star IMO unless things get bad economically, really bad.

That was my take earlier in this thread. It will only happen when the oligarchs feel enough pain. And even that is a very high threshold. The devil you know is better than the devil you don't. Each would have to weigh their place in a new regime to be allowed to continue their corruption under a new devil.

[Scoop Snoop]

The Russian media in 1991 cannot be compared to the 2022 Russian media under Putin. I'd wager that was the reason 500,000 were able to protest then.

And then, maybe Putin does not have total control aftercall.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/12/tech/russia-internet-censorship-circumvention

[Pakuni]

The Russian population was influenced enough in 1991 to put 500,000 people on the streets and force the military government out. I would like to see a repeat performance. Likely? No. Possible? Yes. We have already influenced our allies in Europe. I would like to see a squeeze play on Putin.

Russia in 1991 was in a very different place than it is today, and the conditions/motivations that led to those protests don't really exist in contemporary Russia.
Remember, those protests came about in response to a coup by hardliners, against a popular regime that had given the population its first taste of freedom - particularly economic and travel freedom. The people who rose up then didn't want to lose those freedoms. Flash forward to today, and those freedoms remain largely intact. Putin isn't trying to take it away from them.
Political freedom is another matter, of course, but the Russians have never truly had that.

[forgetful]

Russia in 1991 was in a very different place than it is today, and the conditions/motivations that led to those protests don't really exist in contemporary Russia.
Remember, those protests came about in response to a coup by hardliners, against a popular regime that had given the population its first taste of freedom - particularly economic and travel freedom. The people who rose up then didn't want to lose those freedoms. Flash forward to today, and those freedoms remain largely intact. Putin isn't trying to take it away from them.
Political freedom is another matter, of course, but the Russians have never truly had that.

And many Russians miss the day where they were considered a super-power.