MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: kryza on October 27, 2014, 01:37:56 PM
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9th in the Big East.
Ouch...
http://kenpom.com/
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Lock for the NIT, assumin' a soft bubble, hey?
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Damn--we need to bring back Buzz, then we will be top 25 and picked to win the BEast.
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Lock for the NIT, assumin' a soft bubble, hey?
Depends if there are any bubbles burst based on who wins their regular season conference title but doesn't win their conference tournament title, aina?
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Damn--we need to bring back Buzz, then we will be top 25 and picked to win the BEast.
Much like Bert's schtick got old, your schtick has gotten old too.
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Damn--we need to bring back Buzz, then we will be top 25 and picked to win the BEast.
So you're saying last year's team simply played to its actual potential, not the bloated potential the press gave it in the preseason?
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On paper, we don't look good. Let's prove them wrong!
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9th in the Big East.
Ouch...
http://kenpom.com/
Good. I didn't want to waste my time nor emotional energy following this team for 30-odd games over the next four months. At least now I know how they'll finish.
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#86 for a preseason ranking. The current ranking is also #107 on offense and #64 on defense. Prediction is for the team to go 15-13 (8-10).
As a start to the season those all kind of seem right to me.
Other BE rankings:
Nova #9
GU #22
SJU #39
Creighton #47
Prov #53
X #66
Butler #67
Seton Hall #85
DPU #197
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Hard to argue with the prediction.
On the bright side, it'd be pretty difficult to fail to meet expectations.... ;)
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#86 for a preseason ranking. The current ranking is also #107 on offense and #64 on defense. Prediction is for the team to go 15-13 (8-10).
As a start to the season those all kind of seem right to me.
Other BE rankings:
Nova #9
GU #22
SJU #39
Creighton #47
Prov #53
X #66
Butler #67
Seton Hall #85
DPU #197
It is hard to argue with the prediction, but Creighton at #47? I'm having a little difficulty with that one.
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Other BE rankings:
Nova #9
GU #22
SJU #39
Creighton #47
Prov #53
X #66
Butler #67
Seton Hall #85
DPU #197
Fairly similar to the rankings I came up with when I did my model over the summer:
Villanova #8
Georgetown #30
St. John's #46
Providence #60
Xavier #62
Creighton #68
Butler #78
Marquette #86 (huh, exactly the same)
Seton Hall #91
Depaul #186
KP's are a little more optimistic than mine. I'll defer to him
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It is hard to argue with the prediction, but Creighton at #47? I'm having a little difficulty with that one.
People forget that they have two very good players coming off redshirt, a solid graduate transfer, a decent recruiting class, and better bench from last season than people realized. But still, I do agree that 47 seems a bit high. But I think they will be better than people think.
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People forget that they have two very good players coming off redshirt, a solid graduate transfer, a decent recruiting class, and better bench from last season than people realized. But still, I do agree that 47 seems a bit high. But I think they will be better than people think.
Also have Will Artino at center with some decent backups and seniors Chatman and Brooks might be as good a guard combo as any in the BE.
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So you're saying last year's team simply played to its actual potential, not the bloated potential the press gave it in the preseason?
No I am not saying that, but thank you for putting words in your mouth. We had the talent last year, but Buzz blew it--plain and simple.
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That high?
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KenPom must have adjusted the bias in his model since UW is only #6.
That means everyone is 6 spots lower than they should be. So Marquette is really #80.
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Only thing that this ranking will prove is that it will be terribly wrong.
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Didn't he have us low last year? Personally I think his model is most effective with teams that return a good amount of data but with a lot of unknowns its not as effective or at least I hope that's the case.
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Oh, the hypocrisy!
Pomeroy graduated from an MWC school. Surely he favors that conference over the BE.
Lol
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#86 for a preseason ranking. The current ranking is also #107 on offense and #64 on defense. Prediction is for the team to go 15-13 (8-10).
As a start to the season those all kind of seem right to me.
Other BE rankings:
Nova #9
GU #22
SJU #39
Creighton #47
Prov #53
X #66
Butler #67
Seton Hall #85
DPU #197
So, an 8-10 Big East record will get us ninth place? Wow!
Seton Hall is way over rated. A great freshman class, but the stud guard is inconsistent, and the other guys are going to need development time. Fuquon Edwin is going to be missed big time, IMO. Eugene Teague and Patrik Auda were big and experienced, and Brian Oliver was a dangerous 3 point threat. All of them are going to be a lot to replace. Look for them to become a load in a year, if Whitehead sticks around. This year Gibbs and Sina will have to carry them.
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#86 for a preseason ranking. The current ranking is also #107 on offense and #64 on defense. Prediction is for the team to go 15-13 (8-10).
As a start to the season those all kind of seem right to me.
Other BE rankings:
Nova #9
GU #22
SJU #39
Creighton #47
Prov #53
X #66
Butler #67
Seton Hall #85
DPU #197
So if the 2nd to last place team is 8-10, that must mean about 6 teams will go 9-9 in this model
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So if the 2nd to last place team is 8-10, that must mean about 6 teams will go 9-9 in this model
And that DePaul is in for a typical year.
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So if the 2nd to last place team is 8-10, that must mean about 6 teams will go 9-9 in this model
Stated another way: "MU will be one game out of third place!"
#regressiontothemean
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So, an 8-10 Big East record will get us ninth place? Wow!
The model predicts 9th in KP ranking. Not necessarily 9th in the conference. I guess he projects a rough non-conference? Maybe due to Luke's absence?
I'm trying to picture how an 8-10 team could get 9th out of 10.
1. Nova (14-4)
2. Georgetown (13-5)
3. St. John's (11-7)
4. Creighton (9-9)
5. Providence (9-9)
6. Xavier (9-9)
7. Butler (8-10)
8. Seton Hall (8-10)
9. Marquette (8-10)
10. Depaul (1-17)
That would suck for our conference. Would need stellar non-conferences to get more than 2 bids!
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The model predicts 9th in KP ranking. Not necessarily 9th in the conference. I guess he projects a rough non-conference? Maybe due to Luke's absence?
I'm trying to picture how an 8-10 team could get 9th out of 10.
1. Nova (14-4)
2. Georgetown (13-5)
3. St. John's (11-7)
4. Creighton (9-9)
5. Providence (9-9)
6. Xavier (9-9)
7. Butler (8-10)
8. Seton Hall (8-10)
9. Marquette (8-10)
10. Depaul (1-17)
That would suck for our conference. Would need stellar non-conferences to get more than 2 bids!
Yeah, that is an important distinction.
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edit: nevermind
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Two teams in the Top 35 and people wonder why Dana O'Neil wrote what she wrote.
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Lock for the NIT, assumin' a soft bubble, hey?
The NIT automatically takes conference champions, who lose in their conference tournament like UWGB did last year. NCAA 68 + NIT 32=100 bids of which there will be at least 20 teams rated worse then 86th that are taking up bids. 100-20=80, which leaves 86th 6 teams short of an NIT bid. This of course is not exact, but the 86th ranked team is not likely to get an at large bid to either tournament.