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Author Topic: MU minus fifteen -REALLY??  (Read 3118 times)

WashDCWarrior

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MU minus fifteen -REALLY??
« on: January 24, 2007, 12:42:19 PM »
Yes MU has been playing really well.
Yes they're at home.

But a 15 point spread seems like a lot versus a Seton Hall team that's 3-3 in conference play, has alternated wins and losses in their past 12 games, and IS COMING OFF A LOSS. 

A number of fans on this board are worried about a let-down game.  Looking at the predictions for tonight, of the twelve posters so far, only one has picked MU to win by 15, and that was exactly 15.  The other eleven (including me) are looking for a tighter game.

Maybe we're missing something or just being pessamistic, but let's hope the bookies are right.

ToddPacker

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Re: MU minus fifteen -REALLY??
« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2007, 01:39:59 PM »
Ken Pom thinks 15 is just about right:  http://www.kenpom.com/sked.php?y=2007&team=Marquette&t=p

Not sure if I agree with it, but there is at least some statistical basis for it.

maxpower773

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Re: MU minus fifteen -REALLY??
« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2007, 01:40:14 PM »
I don't think any of us are being pessimistic, I'd say more like realistic. We know we can win by that much, just look at the WV game for that. But this is the Big East, and when you get a team like SH that is looking for a win to stay above .500 in the conference a 15 point spread seems a bit too much.

DoubleMU0609

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Re: MU minus fifteen -REALLY??
« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2007, 01:53:16 PM »
I picked a 13 pt spread for the game, but I'm thinking it will be about an 8 pt lead most of the game and then get a bump at the end from fouls.  15 points is way to much for any Big East game against anyone but the very bottom of the conference.

BuzzSucksSucks

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Re: MU minus fifteen -REALLY??
« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2007, 02:17:29 PM »
Curious, but does anyone remember what Ken Pom had us doing the last 4 games, after we lost to Syracuse?  I'm sure he didn't have us winning all 4. 

StillAWarrior

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Re: MU minus fifteen -REALLY??
« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2007, 04:11:41 PM »
For what it's worth (if anything) Tony Mejia predicts 81-64.  That's 17 points for the math challeged.
Never wrestle with a pig.  You both get dirty, and the pig likes it.

WashDCWarrior

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Re: MU minus fifteen -REALLY??
« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2007, 04:47:43 PM »
For what it's worth (if anything) Tony Mejia predicts 81-64.  That's 17 points for the math challeged.

Thanks, I ran out of fingers and didn't want to take my shoes off at work.  ;)

pbiflyer

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Re: MU minus fifteen -REALLY??
« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2007, 06:29:59 PM »
Thanks, I ran out of fingers and didn't want to take my shoes off at work.  ;)
You went to Notre Dame???  ;D

TVDirector

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Re: MU minus fifteen -REALLY??
« Reply #8 on: January 24, 2007, 09:49:05 PM »
would have won by 16 save for that last TO after a rebound and the 3 pointer by SH with time running out.


Wade for President

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Re: MU minus fifteen -REALLY??
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2007, 07:31:33 AM »
Kinsella and that damn turnover!!!