For Those Who Wrote Cadougan Off: You Know Who You Are

[willie warrior]

Pretty good line on him last night:
4 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals, 1 TO (and the TO was when he was double teamed and nobody came up to help)

Since BEast play begun, he has best Assist/TO average: 20 assists and 6 TO's for the Warriors.

Yes, he is not shooting/scoring well, but that is not his role--he is a distributo, and he is doing that along with playing good D and energy.

[GGGG]

Yes, he is a nice backup PG at this point.  Buycks is still better.

[DCWarriors04]

Buycks better offensively but prone to the stupid mental mistake...Cadougan appears to have the makings of a good floor general.

[PaintTouches]

Buycks is better, but I'm glad Cadougan is finally starting to show flashes of brilliance along with consistency. Cadougan had one drive in particular where he blew past two defenders and finished himself. Granted Depaul's defense was nonexistent for most of the night, but it is plays like those that make me think we will be fine next year.

[GGGG]

Buycks is also much better defensively.

[21Jumpstreet]

Junior can be trusted with the ball.

[tower912]

Hey, something positive from Willie and something I agree with.   Yes, Cadougan is playing better.   He finally looks healed.    He needs to hit a J, but so does Blue.   I am not worried about him as our pg next year, assuming that he improves over the next 15 like has over the last 15.     Solid.    BEast numbers:  115 minutes, 21 assists, 6 turnovers. 

[AZWarrior]

DB is better, but he's a senior.  JC is a soph (frosh?) and is giving us good minutes.  I'm glad we've got both of them on the team.

BTW - kudos to those who suggested that DB might have a marked improvement from last year to this.  Its certainly turning out to be the case.

[4everwarriors]

Hasn't shown that he's a BE starting lead guard yet. Maybe he has it in him and maybe he doesn't. Can he hit Lake Michigan if he's standing on Bradford Beach?

[Norm]

They only put Cadougan down for 1 turnover last night? He had a t least two in the last minute and a half in garbage time. I think he is coming along well and is improving. Hopefully he works on his shot in the off season so he can pose at least a shred of an offensive threat next year.

[NYWarrior]

he's a good role player.  gotta have a few of those.

[NavinRJohnson]

he's a good role player.  gotta have a few of those.

Agreed. He is an excellent compliment to Buycks. The two of them make a pretty decent PG combo.

[mu_hilltopper]

Junior's nickname:  THE FINISHER.

[Clam Crowder]

Junior's most impressive thing last night was his rebounding. Some of those boards were tough, and he fought hard for them. After one of them he attempted a pathetic layup that was followed by an equally pathetic fulce put-back layup attempt, but he definitely has a warrior's mentality. I think Dwill next year will play with the same intensity as Junior. He strikes me as that type of player

[NersEllenson]

I know I'm one of the Scoopers who "wrote Cadougan off," or at very least was skeptical as to his contributions to the team this year.  I'd say he is progressing and showing some flashes of being a Big East caliber PG.  He did play tough last night, battled for some rebounds, and in general showed good competitveness.  

Junior still has a ways to go, but for a sophomore, I'm encouraged by what he's shown the last few games.  

[Stretchdeltsig]

Junior's game has steadily improved this year.  He played with more confidence last night.  Still needs to work on his offense.  He has a tendency to dribble high at times which is worrisome.  He lost one turnover from his high dribble last night.  Dwight Buycks has stepped up his game this year as a ball handler, scorer and leader.  He is definitely our best point guard.  Love to watch how athletic Buycks plays.

[DJO's Pump Fake]

I wrote him off, I will be the first to say he is doing better, but not enough for a change in my thinking.

Long way to go, but it is a start.

[Tugg Speedman]

Those that wrote off Junior are the same one that said Buzz ruined DJO by not starting him earlier this season.

They are same ones that complain Ox does get more of Outle's time.

They are the same one that think Buycks stinks

They are the same ones that complained about Crowder's playing time after the Wisconsin game (he was getting too much).

They are the same one's that worried that Vander would be "one and done."

They are the same one's that thought Ewill would be "two and done"

They are the same one's that thought Jamil Jones would be the Freshman that would get the most amount of playing time.

They are the same one's that want Buzz to mandate 100 FT a day in practice (even though we are above average FT% team).

---

This is why I have repeatedly asked the mods to start and investment board.  You would be very wealthy doing the opposite of what is questionable thinking around here.

[MUfan12]

Junior will be fine. He's still more or less a freshman in basketball experience. His shot will come along.

What encourages me lately is he's been excellent defensively. Definitely coming around.

[texaswarrior74]

Comments from Buzz at post game presser....

"I think Junior's beginning to change our team on both ends of the floor -- he's just always in the middle of everything."

Seems that Buzz had/has not written him off....

[dsfire]

Not sure if I'd say excellent defensively, but certainly much better than late last year/early this year.  He's been doing a better job of staying in front of his man - aside from one DePaul basket that they replayed last night where he was shaken off at the top of the key and the player drove for an easy layup past Fulce.

I suspect the defense is key to him playing big minutes.  He's got a great eye for fast breaks, and the main downside to our offense when he's in there is just that he isn't personally much of a scorer, yet.  The slashing will come as he gets better finishing in traffic.  Jump shots, who knows.

[Steve Buscemi]

I was really impressed last night... Depaul is getting 8 steals per game and he only turned it over once in the 21 mins he played.  Really, the only time I was worried when he had the ball was the last 1:20 when our 5 included EWill, JJones and Frozena.

[willie warrior]

Those that wrote off Junior are the same one that said Buzz ruined DJO by not starting him earlier this season.

They are same ones that complain Ox does get more of Outle's time.

They are the same one that think Buycks stinks

They are the same ones that complained about Crowder's playing time after the Wisconsin game (he was getting too much).

They are the same one's that worried that Vander would be "one and done."

They are the same one's that thought Ewill would be "two and done"

They are the same one's that thought Jamil Jones would be the Freshman that would get the most amount of playing time.

They are the same one's that want Buzz to mandate 100 FT a day in practice (even though we are above average FT% team).

---

This is why I have repeatedly asked the mods to start and investment board.  You would be very wealthy doing the opposite of what is questionable thinking around here.

Wow--based on what you just posted, you have basically said everyone is the same on this board.  Then how do you explain such diverse opinions on so many issues here?

[Tugg Speedman]

Wow--based on what you just posted, you have basically said everyone is the same on this board.  Then how do you explain such diverse opinions on so many issues here?

That's easy ... If an issue has multiple explanations (like Junior's ability to get on the floor), the negative option is always chosen (i.e., he stinks).  If their are multiple negative options, then the one that portrays Buzz in the least favorable light will be chosen (i.e., Buzz is handling him wrong which is why he stinks).

This is why most of the analysis around here is wrong.  It's not analysis.  It's emotional convulsions pretending to be analysis.

[mileskishnish72]

Gotta like Jr's distribution and assist/TO ratio. What I'm really happy about is that it seems I no longer have to cringe when he's at the line -looks smoother lately and the results show it. I suppose he's probably been practicing at least 100 FT's a day.

[Henry Sugar]

Buzz's comments from the radio show were that Junior had really turned it on in the last few weeks.

He's a good backup PG that is improving. 

[mugrad99]

Junior still has a ways to go, but for a sophomorecoming back from a major, and sometimes career ending, injury, I'm encouraged by what he's shown the last few games.  

Fixed it for you

[NersEllenson]

Dwight Buycks has stepped up his game this year as a ball handler, scorer and leader.  He is definitely our best point guard.  Love to watch how athletic Buycks plays.

This.  I felt Buycks could be a key to the team based on what was reported about his play over the summer - combined with his clear athleticism, shake/bake, and creativity.

Some may think Buycks has too much playground in his game - but personally, I love it, and think having some playground in one's game is what makes one a VERY good player.  Buycks plays with a great pace and rhythm to his game...wish DJO could find the same type of flow/rhythm.  DJO is almost always 100% full speed ahead..not quite as much hesitation, shake/bake, etc.   I've seen numerous NBA caliber moves from Dwight this year...and actually think he has a chance to get drafted  -assuming he keeps up the play he's shown the last 6-8 games.

[mugrad2006]

 I've seen numerous NBA caliber moves from Dwight this year...and actually think he has a chance to get drafted

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/KX5jNnDMfxA?fs=1&amp;amp;hl=en_US" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/KX5jNnDMfxA?fs=1&amp;amp;hl=en_US</a>

[ChicosBailBonds]

Yes, he is a nice backup PG at this point.  Buycks is still better.

+1 and that's my concern for next year.  Can he be the GUY

[T-Bone]

Watching Buzz yell at Junior in the 1st episode of the All-Access stuff, you can see how much that got in his head.  "SPRINT TO THE BALL JUNIOR!!"  He's getting it.  Defensively, he's becoming one of our better guys out there.

He's gaining confidence.  I still think he has the ability to be a Levance Fields kind of PG. 

[avid1010]

I watched him play in the non-conference bunny games, and it was clear he was the only true pg on the team.  You also saw a better showing from Vander than what you're seeing now.  I think those flashes, against weaker opponents, will eventually be what is common in BEAST play.  I have a lot of faith that Buzz can develop players.  Even players that get little PT like E-Will, the improvement he made on his jumper is more than impressive, and I think he helps the team in his junior and senior seasons.  

[NickelDimer]

Watching Buzz yell at Junior in the 1st episode of the All-Access stuff, you can see how much that got in his head.  "SPRINT TO THE BALL JUNIOR!!"  He's getting it.  Defensively, he's becoming one of our better guys out there.

He's gaining confidence.  I still think he has the ability to be a Levance Fields kind of PG. 

There was a sequence against Lville where he looked like he was three places at once.  His effort defensively is off the charts compared to in the past.

[mviale]

Pretty good line on him last night:
4 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals, 1 TO (and the TO was when he was double teamed and nobody came up to help)

Since BEast play begun, he has best Assist/TO average: 20 assists and 6 TO's for the Warriors.

Yes, he is not shooting/scoring well, but that is not his role--he is a distributo, and he is doing that along with playing good D and energy.

Junior has excelled with the departure of reggie smith. So has our overall guard play.

[warthog-driver]

he blew past two defenders and finished himself

disturbing

[rosenberger77]

I am still down on Junior.  Does not go left well (like Buycks).  Shaky with ball when well defended, and makes extremely weak/crazy passes under pressure  (Horrible passer against a decent press).  Teams know this and love to trap him in corner at the half court line. It is truly amazing that he looks as well as he does statistically.


I really hope he can develop a 10-15 foot jump shot that can keep defenses honest.  Otherwise may remain a liability.

[warthog-driver]

Does not go left well.  Shaky with ball when well defended, and makes extremely weak/crazy passes under pressure  (Horrible passer against a decent press).  Can only pop the deep ballOtherwise may remain a liability.

Sounds a lot like you, Gary!

[rosenberger77]

Touche.

But it is such a shame because he has great heart and vision, and really spots the open man well.
Gotta hope it all comes together for him.

[warthog-driver]

Touche.

But it is such a shame because he has great heart and vision, and really spots the open man well.
Gotta hope it all comes together for him.

i think it will. he sees the floor very well. i expect greatness

[CTWarrior]

Does not go left well (like Buycks).  Shaky with ball when well defended, and makes extremely weak/crazy passes under pressure  (Horrible passer against a decent press).  Teams know this and love to trap him in corner at the half court line. It is truly amazing that he looks as well as he does statistically.

I agree with this part.  I've said earlier in the season that I didn't think he had a good enough handle yet.  And, like you, I am always surprised at how good his A/TO numbers are because it sure doesn't look that way when you watch. 

On the other hand, it seems to me he is improving steadily.  I think his getting steady minutes is what has led to this steady improvement. 

[NavinRJohnson]

I am always surprised at how good his A/TO numbers are because it sure doesn't look that way when you watch. 

On the other hand, it seems to me he is improving steadily.  I think his getting steady minutes is what has led to this steady improvement. 

He is the classic game manager QB in football. He rarely will try to do anything he isn't capable of, so his mistakes are limited, but at the same time, so is his production. I'll take that out of a backup PG, especially when the starter is Buycks, who is just the opposite (and can be a bot of a train wreck at times). The fact is, they do seem to put up points when Junior's in there, and Buycks puts up points when he's in there.

[willie warrior]

He is the classic game manager QB in football. He rarely will try to do anything he isn't capable of, so his mistakes are limited, but at the same time, so is his production. I'll take that out of a backup PG, especially when the starter is Buycks, who is just the opposite (and can be a bot of a train wreck at times). The fact is, they do seem to put up points when Junior's in there, and Buycks puts up points when he's in there.

He is a much better ball ditributor than Buycks--that is patently obvious.

Still amazed by the number of detractors to Jr. He does not need to score, and when it comes to crunch time he will be in there, likely along with Buycks and DJO.

[warthog-driver]

He is the classic game manager QB in football. He rarely will try to do anything he isn't capable of, so his mistakes are limited, but at the same time, so is his production. I'll take that out of a backup PG, especially when the starter is Buycks, who is just the opposite (and can be a bot of a train wreck at times). The fact is, they do seem to put up points when Junior's in there, and Buycks puts up points when he's in there.

2 words: Quinn Buckner

[mu-rara]

His play so far is mostly God given talent.  He is basically an advanced freshman.  His defense has improved tremendously.  He runs the break better than any other guard on the team.  His ability to find the open person is incredible. 

He needs development but has a lot of upside.  He'll be a Cousy finalist as a senior.  With Buzz pushing him, he could be better than Tony Miller.  We all know what an offensive juggernaut Miller was in first two years.

[mu-rara]

2 words: Quinn Buckner

What warthog said.

[MUfan12]

He needs development but has a lot of upside.  He'll be a Cousy finalist as a senior.  With Buzz pushing him, he could be better than Tony Miller.  We all know what an offensive juggernaut Miller was in first two years.

I hope you're right, but Tony was an all-timer. 1000 pt scorer, an assist record that will never be touched, and a nearly 3:1 assist to TO ratio. And he had over 500 rebounds. He was incredible.

[4everwarriors]

We'd all be creaming ourselves if he turns out to be half the player Buckner was. Quinn was a first round draft choice and cashed a few NBA paychecks in addition to winning an NCAA championship.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

What warthog said.

I'm just surprised the response wasn't in a haiku.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Junior has really improved as the season has worn on.  His on ball pressure, his game grittiness, and his efficiency game.  However, for the total season, he is either feast or famine on ball control, and he needs to be able to hit a shot as teams zone us when he gets in.  

>> He is about the same as Buycks in assist %:  25.8% for Junior and 25.7% for Dwight on distribution
http://kenpom.com/playerstats.php?s=ARate&y=2011&f=BE

>> But he is 2nd to last in the BE in Turnover Rate (33.0%) for those playing 40% of the minutes or more--97 players qualified on the list (Jae leads the BE, btw).
http://kenpom.com/playerstats.php?s=TORate&y=2011&f=BE

>>He hasn't played enough minutes to qualify on the eFG% list, but his 36.4% is 4.5% PTS below the last place shooter.  
http://kenpom.com/playerstats.php?s=eFG&y=2011&f=BE

In BE play, Junior's TO Rate has dropped to 23.7% and his assist % has risen to 27.3%.  However, his eFG% is 21.4%. His distributor abilities are limited by his lack of shooting prowess by defenses who sag off, which is why Dwight starts--and who is 3rd in the BE (all games) in eFG% and 1st in trey shooting % in BE play.  He is a great back-up PG who is now earning his minutes--think JFB in his sophomore year as the season advanced.

http://kenpom.com/playerstats.php?s=eFG&y=2011&f=BE

http://statsheet.com/mcb/conferences/big-east/player_stats?season=2010-2011&stat=2&games=conf

[willie warrior]

I hope you're right, but Tony was an all-timer. 1000 pt scorer, an assist record that will never be touched, and a nearly 3:1 assist to TO ratio. And he had over 500 rebounds. He was incredible.

Agreed. Tony was an all-timer. He did not need to score--he was a great ball distributor. MU has had some great point guards throughout its history. From memory:
Dick Nixon
Butch Lee
Lloyd Walton
Sam Worthen
Mandy Johnson
Tony Miller
Cordell Henry, and some I probably have forgotten

[mu-rara]

Agreed. Tony was an all-timer. He did not need to score--he was a great ball distributor. MU has had some great point guards throughout its history. From memory:
Dick Nixon
Butch Lee
Lloyd Walton
Sam Worthen
Mandy Johnson
Tony Miller
Cordell Henry, and some I probably have forgotten

Butch was a 2 guard.  Jimmy Boylan was point.  Otherwise I agree on your sentiment and list.

[NersEllenson]

His play so far is mostly God given talent.  He is basically an advanced freshman.  His defense has improved tremendously.  He runs the break better than any other guard on the team.  His ability to find the open person is incredible. 

He needs development but has a lot of upside.  He'll be a Cousy finalist as a senior.  With Buzz pushing him, he could be better than Tony Miller.  We all know what an offensive juggernaut Miller was in first two years.

I'd say this is a MAJOR, MAJOR stretch.  I'm all for being optimistic, but Junior has a LONG way to go to get to the level of a Cousy finalist or even a Tony Miller. 

[Lennys Tap]

Agreed. Tony was an all-timer. He did not need to score--he was a great ball distributor. MU has had some great point guards throughout its history. From memory:
Dick Nixon
Butch Lee
Lloyd Walton
Sam Worthen
Mandy Johnson
Tony Miller
Cordell Henry, and some I probably have forgotten

The best of them all was Dean Meminger.

[GGGG]

Good grief...better than Tony Miller?

I think Junior will be a solid point guard when all is said and done, but do you know how good Miller was???

[mu-rara]

Good grief...better than Tony Miller?

I think Junior will be a solid point guard when all is said and done, but do you know how good Miller was???

I have said in previous posts that Miller is the best pure (traditional ??) point guard from MU, and he had many of the same shortcomings as a freshman.  Miller as a freshman and Miller as a senior were miles apart.

[dsfire]

>> But he is 2nd to last in the BE in Turnover Rate (33.0%) for those playing 40% of the minutes or more--97 players qualified on the list (Jae leads the BE, btw).
http://kenpom.com/playerstats.php?s=TORate&y=2011&f=BE

TORate is just a wildly biased stat based upon play style.  Junior being so low on that list says more about how often he shoots it than it does about how often he turns it over - in fact, all three of those guys at the bottom of the list with >30% TORate take less than 10% of their team's shots and 15% of their team's possessions while on the floor.

Agree on the rest.

[Mutaman]

The best of them all was Dean Meminger.

Bingo! And its not even close.

[4everwarriors]

Bingo! And its not even close.

I'm down with that.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I wrote off Junior Cadugan on my taxes last year and got some money back from uncle sam.

[brewcity77]

I've seen numerous NBA caliber moves from Dwight this year...and actually think he has a chance to get drafted  -assuming he keeps up the play he's shown the last 6-8 games.

I've been hesitant to say so, but I'm glad to see someone say it because I've been thinking the same thing of late. If you take out the Rutgers game where he barely played, he's averaging 14.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in his past 6 games. During that stretch he's also shooting 59% from 3-point range. And that's as we get into BEast play where the competition should be tougher.

He has a few moves, gets to the rack well, is reliable from the free throw line, could sub at the 1 or 2, and whatever people want to say about his shot from distance, it just keeps falling. He's certainly a fringe NBA prospect at this point, but that's more than I would have said about him before the season started. Right now, I would not be shocked to see him either drafted or catching on as a rookie free agent.

Agreed. Tony was an all-timer. He did not need to score--he was a great ball distributor. MU has had some great point guards throughout its history. From memory:
Dick Nixon
Butch Lee
Lloyd Walton
Sam Worthen
Mandy Johnson
Tony Miller
Cordell Henry, and some I probably have forgotten

There's also Travis Diener. He scored more than the average point, but put up over 5 assists/game in his career (7 as a senior) and maintained a pretty consistent A/T ratio of around 3/1. Certainly one of the top point guards we have ever had.

I was also a big fan of Cordell Henry, who often seems to get forgotten among the other guys he played with.

[dsfire]

I wrote off Junior Cadugan on my taxes last year and got some money back from uncle sam.

Was it Canadian money, though?

[4everwarriors]

I wrote off Junior Cadugan on my taxes last year and got some money back from uncle sam.

So, you're tight with his mother?

[Dr. Blackheart]

TORate is just a wildly biased stat based upon play style.  Junior being so low on that list says more about how often he shoots it than it does about how often he turns it over - in fact, all three of those guys at the bottom of the list with >30% TORate take less than 10% of their team's shots and 15% of their team's possessions while on the floor.

Agree on the rest.

Dean Oliver weighs turnover rate as 2nd most important of the four factors he tracks that determine outcomes of games next to eFG.  It is a tempo neutral statistic that therefore accounts for style of play for comparison sake across teams and players. So, I am not quite getting your argument here.  A PG with a high turnover rate, especially a distributor, is not a good combination--glad to see Junior improving in BE play.

Being assumptive here, perhaps you are arguing that a personal TO Rate is not a fair measure for someone like Junior as he passes a ball to, let's say an Otule, with the pass being turned over as Otule doesn't have the hands to grab it--so Junior gets credit for the TO. A good PG should know this and be able to put the ball in the receivers hands where he can do something with it without turning it over (as we know he already does as he has a good assist %). I will argue his lack of shooting ability leads to his hesitancy to shoot, which limits his game and play making ability as defenses sag on him to limit what he does well: passing.  So, as the shot clock winds down, he forces passes for turnovers, bad shots or a shot clock violation. Junior is also a very high dribbler and teams have been pressuring his loose handle if you notice. Again, with his play, I can argue this indeed is a very reflective and accurate statistic as does Oliver who studied this deeply.

Article on this if you want:

http://www.dailythunder.com/modern-stats/

[dsfire]

Was absolutely arguing against personal TORate and not the team statistic.  My point is simply that there isn't always a direct connection between the activities where you risk turning the ball over and those that terminate a possession.  Pomeroy even lists his definition of personal TORate as:

Turnover Rate (TORate): This is the percentage of personal possessions used on turnovers. It can be highly dependent on context.  Players that do little passing or dribbling (i.e. spot-up shooters) will have an artificially deflated TO%.

Cadougan is just the opposite of the spot-up shooter.  If he started launching 3s, his TORate would decrease even though his ORtg would presumably drop (assuming poor shooting).

[mu-rara]

The best of them all was Dean Meminger.

Never saw Dean play.  I understand how good he was.  I don't compare him to Junior or Miller because he was a great scoring option on his teams, as was Diener.  I don't see him being the same kind of point guard as JC will be or TM was.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Was absolutely arguing against personal TORate and not the team statistic.  My point is simply that there isn't always a direct connection between the activities where you risk turning the ball over and those that terminate a possession.  Pomeroy even lists his definition of personal TORate as:
Cadougan is just the opposite of the spot-up shooter.  If he started launching 3s, his TORate would decrease even though his ORtg would presumably drop (assuming poor shooting).

But if he was launching all the time, his value (assist rate) would shrink considerably--which is why I said he is feast or famine.  Kemba Walker has a similar assist % as Junior, launches mercilessly, but has a 11% turnover rate. While I agree a TO Rate is less important for a forward or center or even a shooter, I will argue it is extremely important for a PG who is a distributor and has the ball in his hands a good portion of the time.  Junior also has a 92 ORtating, way lowest of the regulars and below the average player of 100.

Anyway...interesting discussion...but I am glad he is progressing...but he is still a good back-up PG.

[dsfire]

But if he was launching all the time, his value (assist rate) would shrink considerably--which is why I said he is feast or famine.  Kemba Walker has a similar assist % as Junior, launches mercilessly, but has a 11% turnover rate. While I agree a TO Rate is less important for a forward or center or even a shooter, I will argue it is extremely important for a PG who is a distributor and has the ball in his hands a good portion of the time.  Junior also has a 92 ORtating, way lowest of the regulars and below the average player of 100.

Anyway...interesting discussion...but I am glad he is progressing...but he is still a good back-up PG.

But the denominator on assist rate is FGs made by teammates while he's on the court, so that would only go down if he would've otherwise gotten an assist.  If he takes a shot on a possession that would've otherwise ended with one of his teammates making a shot where he didn't have an assist, his Assist% would actually go up.

Walker's drop in TORate has been really impressive given how much he's handling the ball and how much he was turning it over his first couple years, but it also sort of proves my point.  It's not that Junior is 3x more likely to turn the ball over while handling it, but that he's three times more likely to terminate a possession with a turnover because he almost never ends a possession with a shot, while Kemba takes more of his team's shots than any other player at a major school.

[MUSF]

Let's remember that Junior is essentially a freshmen developmentally.  I look at this as his first year and I am very pleased with his performance as a newcomer.  They say most players make the biggest jump from the first to second year.  Hopefully we see that from Junior next year.

[Dr. Blackheart]

But the denominator on assist rate is FGs made by teammates while he's on the court, so that would only go down if he would've otherwise gotten an assist.  If he takes a shot on a possession that would've otherwise ended with one of his teammates making a shot where he didn't have an assist, his Assist% would actually go up.

Walker's drop in TORate has been really impressive given how much he's handling the ball and how much he was turning it over his first couple years, but it also sort of proves my point.  It's not that Junior is 3x more likely to turn the ball over while handling it, but that he's three times more likely to terminate a possession with a turnover because he almost never ends a possession with a shot, while Kemba takes more of his team's shots than any other player at a major school.

True but my premise is also true if Junior is shooting, which at his rate, is the weakest part of his game.  For example, if he assists on 4 of 10 MU FGM now, if he is shooting as he is now, that assist would drop to 3 and the FGM would drop to 9--so 40% vs. 33%.  My (convoluted perhaps) argument was to show why Buycks is the better option now vs. Junior--same assist rate, lower TO Rate and a great eFG%.  Junior's scoring game hurts both his PG stats and his practical game effectiveness as defenses sag--which limits his strength and spacing to operate. If he could occasionally hit a trey, defenses would have to respect him which would open up his distributor effectiveness for higher % shots.  

Walker is amazing-- definitely POY in BE, although you could say Buycks has improved across the board as well. I am surprised with the jumps of both. Also, nice to see Junior doing the same...he has to work on his J, though, to hit the next level some of us see in him.

Great stuff, thanks.

[dsfire]

I agree with pretty much all of that.

Based upon what we've seen so far, I think we're probably going to see more drives to the hoop from Junior before his jump shot comes around.  And while he can be an effective scorer and distributor doing that, we certainly would be better off if he could hit 3s at even a 35% clip.  But who knows, seems like a number of guys have developed/vastly improved jump shots between seasons recently.

[warthog-driver]

Agreed. Tony was an all-timer. He did not need to score--he was a great ball distributor. MU has had some great point guards throughout its history. From memory:
Dick Nixon
Butch Lee
Lloyd Walton
Sam Worthen
Mandy Johnson
Tony Miller
Cordell Henry, and some I probably have forgotten

You forgot two of the very best - Dean the Dream and Marcus Washington

[ecompt]

Dean's outside shot was nothing to gush about. Neither was Washington's. All Junior has to do is hit one three a game and it will open his game up tremendously.

[willie warrior]

You forgot two of the very best - Dean the Dream and Marcus Washington

I forgot several: Travis Diener and of course Dean--I am not sure Dean was a PG. Also, Dominic james. Likely another was Tony Smith: he pretty much acted like a PG as he handled the ball most of the time. I would not put Marcus up as high as some of the others.

Point is , of course, we have been blessed with some good ones from the above.

[Lighthouse 84]

Don't forget Tony Smith.   I know he wasn't a true point, but he got thrown in at the point because the Warriors had no one else to play it.  Two words for him.  Out Standing.

[Marquette84]

I have said in previous posts that Miller is the best pure (traditional ??) point guard from MU, and he had many of the same shortcomings as a freshman.  Miller as a freshman and Miller as a senior were miles apart.

I think time may have blurred your memory. 

Go back and refresh your memory with this view of Miller's 4-year stats.
http://wiki.muscoop.com/doku.php/men_s_basketball/tony_miller

Amal McCaskill as a freshman was miles apart from McCaskill as a senior.

Tony Miller came in and delivered consistent Senior-level performance from day one.  There weren't "miles" of difference because he arrived a complete player.

[Lennys Tap]

Miller's one big improvement from freshman to senior year was his assists to turnover ratio, which went from 2.37:1 to 3:1. He was a great distributor, defender and leader. He was also a real negative as a scorer and our opponents dared him to shoot. He was a career 34.4% shooter on 2 point field goals and 57.2% on free throws. His numbers weren't terrible from 3, probably because other teams literally didn't guard him out there.

[AZWarrior]

Amal McCaskill as a freshman was miles apart from McCaskill as a senior.

[/quote]

Amal was an amazing story in my eyes.  He didn't start on his high school team.  Ended up in the NBA. 


And who says MU can't develop big men?  (OK that was a previous administration that developed Amal)

[ATL MU Warrior]

Amal McCaskill as a freshman was miles apart from McCaskill as a senior.

Amal was an amazing story in my eyes.  He didn't start on his high school team.  Ended up in the NBA. 

And who says MU can't develop big men?  (OK that was a previous administration that developed Amal)

I somehow got involved in a 3 on 3 game at the Rec and got stuck "guarding" Amal.  I was the tallest guy on my team so I got the duty.  He was a super nice guy about it...only dunked on me three times or so.  I got my revenge by pulling him out to the three point line after hitting a couple of long ones.  Let's just say he didn't expect to expend a lot of effort on the defensive end, and he didn't really have to.  It's not like I was going to post him up.