How's Jesse Livermore Doin'...

[4everwarriors]

after today's market bent over and blew everyone a kiss, hey?

[MU82]

Well, if you predict a correction every day, eventually you're going to be right.

If we all had listened to Smuggles, we'd have sold every stock we owned and shorted everything about 3 years ago.

[Coleman]

Time to buy

[Tugg Speedman]

Well, if you predict a correction every day, eventually you're going to be right.

If we all had listened to Smuggles, we'd have sold every stock we owned and shorted everything about 3 years ago.

One of my better days this year.  Still an average year however.

And you should have sold every stock because most everything else did better.

Too early to buy.  These things are never one day.

82 - check the other post.  You started calling me smuggles in early July, right at the high.  So congrats the moment you started making fun of my bearish calls the market has done nothing but go down.

[GooooMarquette]

Time to buy

Yep.

[MU82]

One of my better days this year.  Still an average year however.

And you should have sold every stock because most everything else did better.

Too early to buy.  These things are never one day.

82 - check the other post.  You started calling me smuggles in early July, right at the high.  So congrats the moment you started making fun of my bearish calls the market has done nothing but go down.

Whatever you say, Smuggles.

[GooooMarquette]

Livermore did great - absolutely incredible - for many years.  Made money when the market went down, and did it time and time again.  Until he didn't and shot himself.

Seems like there might be a lesson there....

[Coleman]

Too early to buy.  These things are never one day.

Then I'll just buy more.

The bigger the discount, the more I'll buy.

[Tugg Speedman]

Livermore did great - absolutely incredible - for many years.  Made money when the market went down, and did it time and time again.  Until he didn't and shot himself.

Seems like there might be a lesson there....

He shot himself because he went bankrupt for the fourth time and felt he was too old to start over.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Bump...hope some of you cats took profit a few weeks back.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=52231.msg856411#msg856411

[Golden Avalanche]

He shot himself because he went bankrupt for the fourth time and felt he was too old to start over.

Quitter.

[Tugg Speedman]

Friday Was Just The Start: Here Are Goldman's 5 Reasons Why The Selling Will Continue

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-10/friday-was-just-start-here-are-goldmans-5-reasons-why-selling-will-continue

[GooooMarquette]

He shot himself because he went bankrupt for the fourth time and felt he was too old to start over.

Like I said, a lesson....

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Well, I have 28 years for the market to work itself out.  Stay the course.  By not selling I have realized 0 losses anyway.

Individuals in or near retirement on the other hand...

[Coleman]

Well, I have 28 years for the market to work itself out.  Stay the course.  By not selling I have realized 0 losses anyway.

Individuals in or near retirement on the other hand...

This. Not selling under any circumstances. Just a matter of how big of discounts I can buy at

[brandx]

Friday Was Just The Start: Here Are Goldman's 5 Reasons Why The Selling Will Continue

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-10/friday-was-just-start-here-are-goldmans-5-reasons-why-selling-will-continue

As I have said before, if I had a dollar for every time some rightwing rag preaches the stock market's demise over the last 7 1/2 years, I would have lots and lots of dollars.

[mu-rara]

As I have said before, if I had a dollar for every time some rightwing rag preaches the stock market's demise over the last 7 1/2 years, I would have lots and lots of dollars.

Hey Rocky?  Is this what meant by no politics in your post of only about 10 days ago?

[GooooMarquette]

Too early to buy.  These things are never one day.

Solid call.

[brandx]

Hey Rocky?  Is this what meant by no politics in your post of only about 10 days ago?

I did not make a political statement in any way. I called out someone else for presenting a strictly political argument.

[MU82]

Peter Lynch 1:

"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."

Peter Lynch 2:

"I can't recall ever once having seen the name of a market timer on Forbes' annual list of the richest people in the world. If it were truly possible to predict corrections, you'd think somebody would have made billions by doing it."

Of course, that moron doesn't know anywhere near as much about investing as Smuggles does!

BTW, today's rally erased about 80% of the "losses" (all were paper losses) I sustained in Friday's rout.

Crazy how the market goes both up AND down. I mean, who'da thunk that?

[Tugg Speedman]

Peter Lynch 1:

"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."

Peter Lynch 2:

"I can't recall ever once having seen the name of a market timer on Forbes' annual list of the richest people in the world. If it were truly possible to predict corrections, you'd think somebody would have made billions by doing it."

Of course, that moron doesn't know anywhere near as much about investing as Smuggles does!

BTW, today's rally erased about 80% of the "losses" (all were paper losses) I sustained in Friday's rout.

Crazy how the market goes both up AND down. I mean, who'da thunk that?

"I can't recall ever once having seen the name of a market timer on Forbes' annual list of the richest people in the world. If it were truly possible to predict corrections, you'd think somebody would have made billions by doing it."

Try

Carl Ichan $20.5 billion
Ray Dalio $15.3 billion
Steve Cohen $12 billion
David Tepper $11.6 billion
John Paulson $11.4 billion
Andrew Beal $8.9 billion
Ken Griffin, $7 billion
Daniel Ziff $5 billion
Dirk Ziff $5 billion
Isreal Englander $4.8 billion
Paul Tudor Jones $3.7 billion
Stan Drunkenmiller $4.4 billion
Julian Robertson $3.7 billion
Leon Cooperman $3.4 billion
David Siegel $2.8 billion
Peter Thiel $2.8 billion
Dan Loeb $2.7 billion
James Dinan $2.4 billion
John Henry $2.2 billion
Paul Singer $2.1 billion
Bill Gross $2 billion
Davis Einhorn $1.8 billion

[Coleman]

Solid call.

lol

[MU82]

"I can't recall ever once having seen the name of a market timer on Forbes' annual list of the richest people in the world. If it were truly possible to predict corrections, you'd think somebody would have made billions by doing it."

Try

Carl Ichan $20.5 billion
Ray Dalio $15.3 billion
Steve Cohen $12 billion
David Tepper $11.6 billion
John Paulson $11.4 billion
Andrew Beal $8.9 billion
Ken Griffin, $7 billion
Daniel Ziff $5 billion
Dirk Ziff $5 billion
Isreal Englander $4.8 billion
Paul Tudor Jones $3.7 billion
Stan Drunkenmiller $4.4 billion
Julian Robertson $3.7 billion
Leon Cooperman $3.4 billion
David Siegel $2.8 billion
Peter Thiel $2.8 billion
Dan Loeb $2.7 billion
James Dinan $2.4 billion
John Henry $2.2 billion
Paul Singer $2.1 billion
Bill Gross $2 billion
Davis Einhorn $1.8 billion

Assuming that you are right about every single one of those men getting rich thanks totally to their market-timing ability, then apparently that statement by Lynch was wrong. (Of course, over the years you have stretched the truth many times to "prove" your points, so maybe we shouldn't assume.)

I think even you'd agree that the men you listed are the exception to the rule and that the vast majority of individual investors could not possibly replicate their success. That statement plays quite nicely into the first Lynch quote, the one you haven't tried to refute.

But that's OK, Smuggles, we all know you are the smartest, richest, most incredible, most handsome and best-dressed man in the room.

Still, I do wonder why ...

1. A man of your investing acumen is not on that list of billionaires; AND

2. A guy with $999,999,999 (because I just assume you're CLOSE to being a billionaire) bothers hanging out with the peons here in Scoopland.

[Coleman]

No need to make this political. It is not a right-wing, left-wing issue.

It is impossible to time the market. It is more effective to just dollar cost average and continue buying over the long haul. I never understood why people would try to shuffle around their 401ks into cash and bonds to time the market. It never worked. I always did better by just continuing to buy, and buy even more when the market went down.

"Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" - Warren Buffett

[GooooMarquette]

It is impossible to time the market. It is more effective to just dollar cost average and continue buying over the long haul. I never understood why people would try to shuffle around their 401ks into cash and bonds to time the market. It never worked. I always did better by just continuing to buy, and buy even more when the market went down.

"Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" - Warren Buffett

Spot on.  I've only made adjustments by asset class in the past couple of years, and only because I'm not many years from retirement.

Loved the list of a dozen or so guys who became billionaires timing the market.  Wonder how long the list would be if we asked to see the people who ended up far worse off the they would have been if they had just dollar cost averaged into low cost index funds from day 1.  Not sure the Scoop server could handle it.

[Tugg Speedman]

I think even you'd agree that the men you listed are the exception to the rule and that the vast majority of individual investors could not possibly replicate their success. That statement plays quite nicely into the first Lynch quote, the one you haven't tried to refute.

I do agree ... amateur investors need to operate in a completely different way than professional investors.  Much akin to the way amateur athletes compete versus professional athletes compete.

I'm a professional speculator (not hedge fund manager, that is a different category).  So what I think is different from the individual investor.  Asking me for advice at times can be like a club player asking a tour pro for advice.

I hang out here because I enjoy it.  When it stop being fun, I'll leave.

[MU82]

I do agree ... amateur investors need to operate in a completely different way than professional investors.  Much akin to the way amateur athletes compete versus professional athletes compete.

I'm a professional speculator (not hedge fund manager, that is a different category).  So what I think is different from the individual investor.  Asking me for advice at times can be like a club player asking a tour pro for advice.

I am honored and humbled that you just allow the rest of us to be in your presence. After all, you are the only billionaire most of us know.

[Tugg Speedman]

No need to make this political. It is not a right-wing, left-wing issue.

It is impossible to time the market. It is more effective to just dollar cost average and continue buying over the long haul. I never understood why people would try to shuffle around their 401ks into cash and bonds to time the market. It never worked. I always did better by just continuing to buy, and buy even more when the market went down.

"Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" - Warren Buffett

I agree and disagree.

Agree that it is very hard for an amateur to time the market.  But for the professional, that is skilled in doing it, it is indeed possible.  My professional life is nothing but talking to investors that do this all day long.

That said, the successful speculators take it very serious and have many people working at it.  It is a discipline that is hard to do part-time (as amateur investors do)

Great book on the subject with a couple of my mentors in it.
https://www.amazon.com/Market-Wizards-Interviews-Top-Traders/dp/1592802974

And here is another great speculator that is from Racine.  I met him while still at MU and he helped me while I was speculating while still in college.  In fact I'm in this book.  (it was written in 1994)

http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0471035483.html

[Tugg Speedman]

I am honored and humbled that you just allow the rest of us to be in your presence. After all, you are the only billionaire most of us know.

This is why I like this site, it is a great joy to drive you crazy. 

[MU82]

This is why I like this site, it is a great joy to drive you crazy.

Hmmm. And here I thought I was driving you crazy.

Although I will freely admit that your inability to use their, there and they're correctly does get to me sometimes.

[GooooMarquette]

I still want to know why an amateur investor like me knew there was no guarantee that the slide would last more than one day, but the "pro" was sure it would.

Feeling like I just beat MJ in a one-on-one.

[Coleman]

Spot on.  I've only made adjustments by asset class in the past couple of years, and only because I'm not many years from retirement.

Loved the list of a dozen or so guys who became billionaires timing the market.  Wonder how long the list would be if we asked to see the people who ended up far worse off the they would have been if they had just dollar cost averaged into low cost index funds from day 1.  Not sure the Scoop server could handle it.

Adjusting asset class allocations in line with your retirement horizon and your long-term investment strategy is very different than trying to time the market (other than the obvious point of trying to do so when the market is high, not low). Absolutely nothing wrong with getting more conservative as your portfolio matures. I'm sure I will do the same when I get older.

[MU82]

I still want to know why an amateur investor like me knew there was no guarantee that the slide would last more than one day, but the "pro" was sure it would.

Feeling like I just beat MJ in a one-on-one.

Look out ... market's down again today. Which definitely proves something.

Of course, the market probably will be back up tomorrow, which might or might not prove something else.

Don't worry. Smuggles the Speculator will let us know.

[GooooMarquette]

Look out ... market's down again today. Which definitely proves something.

Yep - once again proves that the market is inherently unpredictable on a day to day basis...my point all along.  We all know the pattern will basically be up-down-up-down-up-down, etc.  What we don't know is exactly when a new "up" or "down" will arrive, and how high or low it will be.

Anyone who knows exactly when a given stock or market will hit each high or low could start with $100 and be a billionaire within a month.

[Benny B]

Anyone who knows exactly when a given stock or market will hit each high or low could start with $100 and be a billionaire within a month.

How?

[GooooMarquette]

How?

Buy at the bottom of each low, sell at the top of each high.  Repeat often.

[Tugg Speedman]

You think the only way to make money is be right 100% of the time.  If I could be that right, I would not be a billionaire in a month, I would own all the money in the world in a month.

Fact is you only have to be right 50% to 55% of the time and control risk.  See Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones.  Both are worth billions today and both literally started with something like $1000.  (I first met Ray in 1986 in NYC when he was managing a thousand dollars or so of immediate family money out of a studio apartment in NYC.  Today his hedge funds has $140 billion).

It very hard and takes a huge effort.  And you have to be born with some skill to do it.

Think Jimmy Butler ... he was born with some skills (tall and athletic) and worked very hard to become a great player.  It is really no different.

[THRILLHO]

Think Jimmy Butler ... he was born with some skills (tall and athletic) and worked very hard to become a great player.  It is really no different.

False. Jimmy Butler was only around 2 feet tall when he was born and couldn't even stand up on his own.

[MU82]

You think the only way to make money is be right 100% of the time.  If I could be that right, I would not be a billionaire in a month, I would own all the money in the world in a month.

Fact is you only have to be right 50% to 55% of the time and control risk. 

Hey ... we agree on something!

I don't know to whom this was addressed, but I actually agree with this 100%. An investor need not be perfect. He/she needs to be patient and disciplined; also, to have a sound plan and stick with it.

Maybe if it had been my goal to be richer than rich I could have achieved that using some speculative investing strategy. Maybe not. I don't know, and I never will.

Once I learned enough, got experienced enough and made enough mistakes along the way, I set a realistic goal for me and my family:

To have more than enough to live a financially independent, enjoyable, relatively stress-free life, surrounded by people I love.

I have achieved that goal, and I will continue achieving it until my final days.

Never made close to $100K in any year, laid off at 48, retired (mostly) since, put 2 kids through college, own my home free and clear, zero debt, plenty of travel and entertainment, plenty of "stuff." And I've achieved my financial goals.

I spend some time in the comment stream of a notable personal finance site and sometimes somebody will tell folks like me that we're "doing it wrong" because we're not beating some kind of benchmark of THEIR choosing over some timeframe of THEIR choosing. I just laugh and say, "My goal is to have more than enough ... and I do."

So Smuggles, you might already be 100 times "richer" than I am, or you might have half as much as I do or, more likely, you're probably somewhere in between.

I am content because I have a great family, great friends and more than enough.

I sincerely hope you can say the same.

[reinko]

False. Jimmy Butler was only around 2 feet tall when he was born and couldn't even stand up on his own.

You sir have won the MUSCOOP Championship Belt for internet comment of the day.   Congrats