Just 1 game out of 4th place

[Dawson Rental]

I know all the emphasis for at large bids is on RPI, SOS, good wins, bad losses, etc.

But say we win 2 of the next 3 and then one in NYC.  We'd be 21-13, and 9-9 in the BE.  We would have won 5 of our last 7 conference games.

How often does a team from a high major conference with 21 wins, a .500 conference record, and finishing the season playing its best hoops not get a bid?

Not saying we'd get in, but I think that would put us on the bubble.  And if we win 3 of 3 like SaveOD238 said, I'd have to think we're in.

A week ago this post would have been laughable.  The fact that it is just a stretch at this point shows the amount of improvement that this team is making when it most needed to.  It's probably too late for this year's NCAA, but it bodes well for next year, and possibly for recruiting, as well.

[GooooMarquette]

I went though all the conf lists (easy to do, use espn rpi ranking filter by conf) and added up ones that appear to contenders for auto or at large and got 78....too many. Just an eyeball test using rpi and record.

Seems like every year there are teams with RPIs in the 40s that don't get in.

Curious - if you ignored RPI and just filtered to get teams likely to get 21 wins and .500 in high major conferences, and then added the likely lower conference teams, how many would you get? 

[NavinRJohnson]

I know all the emphasis for at large bids is on RPI, SOS, good wins, bad losses, etc.

But say we win 2 of the next 3 and then one in NYC.  We'd be 21-13, and 9-9 in the BE.  We would have won 5 of our last 7 conference games.

How often does a team from a high major conference with 21 wins, a .500 conference record, and finishing the season playing its best hoops not get a bid?

Not saying we'd get in, but I think that would put us on the bubble.  And if we win 3 of 3 like SaveOD238 said, I'd have to think we're in.

Win the game Saturday, and I will open my mind to the possibility. There is something to be said for being hot at the end of the year...unfortunately, that is more of a factor as is pertains to seeding once you're in, vs. getting in. All of that said, my expectation is that they're going to get routed by Villanova. A 30-40 point coming out party by Ellenson being the one thing that could potentially change that.

[bobnoxious]

Henry with 30 and 15 on Saturday is the gut feeling I have had since the schedule came out 

[MUfan12]

Yes it is...dont mind the bashers with rpi on the brain...

Objectively looking at the main criteria the committee uses makes you a basher. Got it.

[GGGG]

If we win out in the regular season and win our first in NYC (probably the 4-5 game with PC), we have to get some consideration on Sunday, right?

22-11, 10-8 Big East
Good wins: Nova, PC x3, Butler x2, @Wisconsin, LSU
Bad losses: DePaul (not counting Belmont, since they will be a tourney team)

Screw the RPI, isn't that a tournament resume?

So I ran RPI Wizard that has us winning out, beating Providence in NYC, and then losing to Nova.

That would give us 71.  I don't believe any team has gotten an at large with a 70+ RPI.  So it is within the realm of possibility, and may happen given the circumstances people mention, but it would be unprecedented.

(Just so you know, losing Saturday but winning out and getting to the BET Championship game gives us an RPI of 72.  In running calculations, it is near impossible for Marquette to get in without winning Saturday.)

[THRILLHO]

If we win out in the regular season and win our first in NYC (probably the 4-5 game with PC), we have to get some consideration on Sunday, right?

22-11, 10-8 Big East
Good wins: Nova, PC x3, Butler x2, @Wisconsin, LSU
Bad losses: DePaul (not counting Belmont, since they will be a tourney team)

Screw the RPI, isn't that a tournament resume?

The committee has said (and I did a post on cracked sidewalks that seemed to back up) that strength of schedule is an independent factor. So even if you have a low RPI if you schedule well that helps you. If you have a high RPI but a weak non-conference schedule that will harm you. We will have a low RPI plus a poor strength of schedule, so I am skeptical that we can get in without winning the BEAST tournament.

[Badgerhater]

The round robin concept is great.   One aspect about the old BEAST is that some teams had far easier schedules because they would get two garbage teams as home-home matchups, other garbage teams on the road and the top teams at home, while others had to run a gauntlet of the opposite.

Round robins force the cream to rise to the top.   No excuses or rationalizations, just win.

[jsglow]

So I ran RPI Wizard that has us winning out, beating Providence in NYC, and then losing to Nova.

That would give us 71.  I don't believe any team has gotten an at large with a 70+ RPI.  So it is within the realm of possibility, and may happen given the circumstances people mention, but it would be unprecedented.

(Just so you know, losing Saturday but winning out and getting to the BET Championship game gives us an RPI of 72.  In running calculations, it is near impossible for Marquette to get in without winning Saturday.)

Let's scale Pike's Peak before we tackle Everest.

Goal #1. Postseason bid (like Vegas).  I'd think we're almost a #donedeal.  Not saying we'd necessarily accept but I personally would for reasons discussed elsewhere.

Goal #2. 20 wins.  Getting darn close.  Al used to have that as an annual goal.

Goal #3. NIT bid.  We should be on the positive side of that ledger now.  (You all remember that Crean shocked look?)

Goal #4. HOME for the NIT.  Personally I'd be very excited to see our guys playing postseason ball at home.

Goal #5. NYC for the NIT Final 4.  Distinct possibility.  I'd hate to play us a month from now in New York.

Goal #6. NCAA bid.  Let's not put all our happiness eggs in that basket, okay?

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a lot to play for.  Enjoy the ride.  See you Saturday for our biggest crowd of the year.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The committee has said (and I did a post on cracked sidewalks that seemed to back up) that strength of schedule is an independent factor. So even if you have a low RPI if you schedule well that helps you. If you have a high RPI but a weak non-conference schedule that will harm you. We will have a low RPI plus a poor strength of schedule, so I am skeptical that we can get in without winning the BEAST tournament.

Let's get one thing straight - our schedule unnatural carnal knowledgeed us.

However....this takes a bit of a story, but the reason our RPI is such a drag is Grambling (350), Maine (312), San Jose State (298), Chicago State (345) and Presbyterian (335).  Teams MU played 5/6 games from 12/2 to 12/27..

You replace those teams on the schedule with low-major teams with RPI's in the 200-210 range - Navy (202), Southern (203), Denver (204), South Carolina State (208) and Western Kentucky (209) - all still games MU would win easily - our RPI and SOS jumps to 67/50 instead of 105/114, and we are firmly on the bubble and totally in the tourney conversation with the exact same record.

This is the type of thing I hope the committee considers. MU's OOC schedule was fine - they challenged themselves with games @ Wisconsin, vs, Iowa, LSU, ASU, Belmont.  It is the dregs on the schedule that are killing MU's numbers - but it could have so easily been a non-issue.  I hope the committee considers that, along with MU being a very young team that is trending in the right direction late in the season, has a lottery pick on their team, and a schedule that if you peel back the onion a bit, there is a simple reason their computer numbers look poor.  Its still a long shot without MU winning out until the BET final, but all hope is not yet lost.     

[Windyplayer]

You replace those teams on the schedule with low-major teams with RPI's in the 200-210 range - Navy (202), Southern (203), Denver (204), South Carolina State (208) and Western Kentucky (209) - all still games MU would win easily - our RPI and SOS jumps to 67/50 instead of 105/114, and we are firmly on the bubble and totally in the tourney conversation with the exact same record.

Incredible.

Eventually, the Committee has take umbrage with the fact that RPI is being manipulated and they keep buying into it.

[Windyplayer]

Let's scale Pike's Peak before we tackle Everest.

Goal #1. Postseason bid (like Vegas).  I'd think we're almost a #donedeal.  Not saying we'd necessarily accept but I personally would for reasons discussed elsewhere.

Goal #2. 20 wins.  Getting darn close.  Al used to have that as an annual goal.

Goal #3. NIT bid.  We should be on the positive side of that ledger now.  (You all remember that Crean shocked look?)

Goal #4. HOME for the NIT.  Personally I'd be very excited to see our guys playing postseason ball at home.

Goal #5. NYC for the NIT Final 4.  Distinct possibility.  I'd hate to play us a month from now in New York.

Goal #6. NCAA bid.  Let's not put all our happiness eggs in that basket, okay?

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a lot to play for.  Enjoy the ride.  See you Saturday for our biggest crowd of the year.

+1. Fun that this young team is trending in the right direction with a big home game over the weekend in front of a sold out crowd. We're getting back to the good ol' days. Stick with'em, boys and girls.

[Loose Cannon]

It's just great to feel all the positive energy in theses posts.  I'm reminiscing  how it was around here at this time last year...........Blow the Roof off Saturday!!

[MUMonster03]

So I ran RPI Wizard that has us winning out, beating Providence in NYC, and then losing to Nova.

That would give us 71.  I don't believe any team has gotten an at large with a 70+ RPI.  So it is within the realm of possibility, and may happen given the circumstances people mention, but it would be unprecedented.

(Just so you know, losing Saturday but winning out and getting to the BET Championship game gives us an RPI of 72.  In running calculations, it is near impossible for Marquette to get in without winning Saturday.)

While being hot at the right time pulls some weight here is what it will probably take for us to get in:

1. Go 3-0 down the stretch and make it to the Big East Championship game, that would give us a win against Nova, Butler, and a good team in the semis, might be enough.

2. If we go 2-1, and the loss is not Nova, then again the Championship game may be enough, depending on the teams we beat to get there.

3. Anything that does not involve beating Nova will require us to win the Big East Tournament.

[MUMountin]

You replace those teams on the schedule with low-major teams with RPI's in the 200-210 range - Navy (202), Southern (203), Denver (204), South Carolina State (208) and Western Kentucky (209) - all still games MU would win easily - our RPI and SOS jumps to 67/50 instead of 105/114, and we are firmly on the bubble and totally in the tourney conversation with the exact same record.

I think that this is a bit of revisionist history.  Let's not forget that in our second game of the season, we needed overtime to beat IUPUI, who is currently around 180.  And, I seem to remember a few other portions of our cupcakes games in which we gave away BIG leads, only to right the ship in the end.  Let's not forget that Georgetown lost to Radford (171) and UNC Asheville (151), and Wisconsin lost to Western Illinois (260) at home.

Which is to say--while I agree that these games really are hurting us now, we should not presume that if we had played tougher cupcakes that we would have won all of those games.  It very well may be that we needed most of those cupcakes because we had a LOT to work on as the 9th youngest D1 team, which we are now getting the advantage of. 

Now, I don't know how it would change things if we replaced all of our sub-300 RPI opponents with ~200 RPI opponents, but lost a home game or two in there.  Maybe it would work out about the same, or even better.  But I think we should be careful about assuming that if we had played a harder schedule we would have the same record we do today.

[THRILLHO]

Let's get one thing straight - our schedule unnatural carnal knowledgeed us.

However....this takes a bit of a story, but the reason our RPI is such a drag is Grambling (350), Maine (312), San Jose State (298), Chicago State (345) and Presbyterian (335).  Teams MU played 5/6 games from 12/2 to 12/27..

You replace those teams on the schedule with low-major teams with RPI's in the 200-210 range - Navy (202), Southern (203), Denver (204), South Carolina State (208) and Western Kentucky (209) - all still games MU would win easily - our RPI and SOS jumps to 67/50 instead of 105/114, and we are firmly on the bubble and totally in the tourney conversation with the exact same record.

This is the type of thing I hope the committee considers. MU's OOC schedule was fine - they challenged themselves with games @ Wisconsin, vs, Iowa, LSU, ASU, Belmont.  It is the dregs on the schedule that are killing MU's numbers - but it could have so easily been a non-issue.  I hope the committee considers that, along with MU being a very young team that is trending in the right direction late in the season, has a lottery pick on their team, and a schedule that if you peel back the onion a bit, there is a simple reason their computer numbers look poor.  Its still a long shot without MU winning out until the BET final, but all hope is not yet lost.   

Marquette also needed overtime to beat 181-ranked IUPUI at home and 214-ranked St. John's played us within 6 at home, so I don't think you're justified in saying we would win all those games easily.

[jsheim]

Objectively looking at the main criteria the committee uses makes you a basher. Got it.

The RPI is not the "main criteria"....and saying it is, is telling.

To quote the NCAA website:
"The Rating Percentage Index (RPI) originally was created in the late seventies at the request of the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee. It is one of the many tools used in the selection process."
...
"The RPI is just one of many factors used by the committee. Each committee member must weigh each factor available and make his or her own decision regarding its importance. Clearly, the RPI will be more helpful to a committee member when evaluating a team out of out his/her region, especially if he/ she has never seen them play."

So I agree with the previous poster (and disagree with others)...win-out...1win in BET...we're in.  RPI will be what it will be. Not the main factor.

[Marcus92]

Henry with 30 and 15 on Saturday is the gut feeling I have had since the schedule came out 

I still remember Novak putting up 41 and 16 against #2 UConn in one of the greatest Marquette wins I've ever witnessed. The 41 points was incredible. The 16 rebounds by Steve Novak — who averaged just 5.9 boards a game — was mind-blowing. He was unstoppable. And it was his very first career double-double.

It might take just that kind of effort to beat Nova on Saturday. Not just Henry's best game of his young career, not just the team's best game of the season — one of MU's best games of the past decade.

Quite possible we'll get smoked by 20. But you never know.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Marquette also needed overtime to beat 181-ranked IUPUI at home and 214-ranked St. John's played us within 6 at home, so I don't think you're justified in saying we would win all those games easily.

I suppose.  Don't think playing to within 6 at home again STJ really means much.

IUPUI is actually a decent team, but that game aas also several weeks before any of the 300+ RPI games occurred. Had MU played IUPUI in December, it'd be a different game.

Of course, none of this really matters. The schedule is what it is. But it is easy to play the what if game, and it is easier to be disappointed in the horsecrap schedule.  I don't care to look, but I doubt Grambling, Chicago St. or Presbyterian have been higher than 325 RPI for many seasons. No benefit whatsoever to playing those teams, and this needs to be fixed going forward.

[GGGG]

The RPI is not the "main criteria"....and saying it is, is telling.

To quote the NCAA website:
"The Rating Percentage Index (RPI) originally was created in the late seventies at the request of the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee. It is one of the many tools used in the selection process."
...
"The RPI is just one of many factors used by the committee. Each committee member must weigh each factor available and make his or her own decision regarding its importance. Clearly, the RPI will be more helpful to a committee member when evaluating a team out of out his/her region, especially if he/ she has never seen them play."

So I agree with the previous poster (and disagree with others)...win-out...1win in BET...we're in.  RPI will be what it will be. Not the main factor.

Just know that the RPI will likely be 70+.  And therefore it would be unprecedented for Marquette to get an at large with that figure.

Saying "we're in," as if it is obvious, is more more an out on a limb prediction than you are making it out to be.

[jsheim]

Just know that the RPI will likely be 70+.  And therefore it would be unprecedented for Marquette to get an at large with that figure.

Saying "we're in," as if it is obvious, is more more an out on a limb prediction than you are making it out to be.

GET OUT ON THAT LIMB DUDE!

You know what I think...if we do win out and we do win 1 in the BET....MU12 or whoever will be tied in knots hoping we don't get a bid just to prove that obnoxious JSHeim wrong..."that will show him...hah!"

But what the heck is that all about!  The fanless negativity towards those who would hope MU would succeed drives me crazy....I don't mind people using the RPI...I like the math...I used it to try to figure at-large bids along with record.

I have been heavy handed on this board before...one guy criticized MU for bad play and my reply was not good...I regret that.....but I think there's just too much of it here.

Many will be happy to know I'm just going to dial it back on this board and just enjoy going to the games...every year has been a good thing for me since I became a fan...last year was the worst but I enjoyed it as  a whole (especially when I find free parking...) .... done with my rant.

[naginiF]

Now, I don't know how it would change things if we replaced all of our sub-300 RPI opponents with ~200 RPI opponents, but lost a home game or two in there.  Maybe it would work out about the same, or even better.  But I think we should be careful about assuming that if we had played a harder schedule we would have the same record we do today.

Brew77 did the following on 2/11

Earlier today, I ran numbers substituting four Marquette opponents for other mid-major/low-major teams that played road games the same nights we played. I only did four because you always have some real bottom feeders. Here are the changes, with the kenpom and RPI numbers in parentheses after.
.
Dec. 2: Vermont (184/161) instead of Grambling (348/347)
Dec. 5: Kent State (170/105) instead of Maine (322/303)
Dec. 21: New Hampshire (262/195) instead of Chicago State (344/345)
Dec. 27: Fairfield (209/173) instead of Presbyterian (312/335)
.
Next...here are the considerations of how this would affect our RPI according to RPIWizard. I have three possibilities for each, the "real" schedule and results based on what happens from here on out, the hypothetical schedule had we gone 4-0 assuming nothing else changed, and the hypothetical schedule assuming we had lost to Kent State (the most likely loss of the four teams above):

18-13 (7-11)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 115 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 78 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 91 / SOS: 39 **17-14 (7-11)**

19-12 (8-10)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 97 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 66 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 77 / SOS: 39 **18-13 (8-10)**

20-11 (9-9)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 83 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 62 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 67 / SOS: 39 **19-12 (9-9)**

21-10 (10-8)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 74 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 45 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 63 / SOS: 39 **20-11 (10-8)**

22-9 (11-7)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 65 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 30 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 47 / SOS: 39 **21-10 (11-7)**

So...what's done is done. There's nothing that can change it now. I'm not writing this to bitch about the schedule. I'm simply using this to address the question that was asked.

Based on the real schedule, if you strictly go by historical numbers of what RPI was in and out, we will need to win out to be on the bubble. I know plenty of people are pushing the 10-8 is good enough narrative, but I don't believe any team with a RPI in the 70s has earned an at-large bid since the 1990s (New Mexico in 1997, maybe?). 20 or 21 total wins should have us safely invited to the NIT, but if we end up with a losing conference record (3-3 from here on out) we are likely going to be left out of the NIT. Don't forget, the 2014 Marquette team was left out of the NIT with a 94 RPI and better SOS than this year's team will have.

Based on the hypothetical schedule assuming we win all four of those games, we would only need to go 20-11 to be likely in. The average difference of the old schedule and the new is 30 positions in the RPI (bear in mind that's not the actual percentage point numbers, just what RPIWizard spit out). Not only that, but the 10-8 record that many people think would give us a shot (again, I disagree) would make us a lock had we changed those four games. No way a 21 win big East team with a winning league record and 45 RPI gets left home.

Then we have the most interesting scenario in my opinion, which is if we had played those four games and gone 3-1. The adjusted record is included in that line. The SOS would not change, but the RPI would. That said, 19-12 (9-9) would still have us on the bubble (likely out) with a 67 RPI and 20-11 (10-8) would give us a decent shot. Even with a loss, we would still looking at an RPI improvement of 17.8 positions on average and a massively better SOS.

One more note. While the validity of RPIWizard has yet to be determined, if we win out and get the 4-seed, we still may not be a lock, at least if you consider the history of the RPI. Lose that first game (to Butler) at MSG and we're looking at an RPI of 66. That's dangerously low. Even if we beat Butler and lose the next game to Villanova, we'd only have a 61 RPI. And that's if we don't lose another game until we play Villanova in the Big East Tournament semifinals.

[MUfan12]

You know what I think...if we do win out and we do win 1 in the BET....MU12 or whoever will be tied in knots hoping we don't get a bid just to prove that obnoxious JSHeim wrong..."that will show him...hah!"

You're an idiot if you think I'm rooting against MU making the tournament.

I'll gladly eat crow if that happens.

[🏀]

GET OUT ON THAT LIMB DUDE!

You know what I think...if we do win out and we do win 1 in the BET....MU12 or whoever will be tied in knots hoping we don't get a bid just to prove that obnoxious JSHeim wrong..."that will show him...hah!"

But what the heck is that all about!  The fanless negativity towards those who would hope MU would succeed drives me crazy....I don't mind people using the RPI...I like the math...I used it to try to figure at-large bids along with record.

I have been heavy handed on this board before...one guy criticized MU for bad play and my reply was not good...I regret that.....but I think there's just too much of it here.

Many will be happy to know I'm just going to dial it back on this board and just enjoy going to the games...every year has been a good thing for me since I became a fan...last year was the worst but I enjoyed it as  a whole (especially when I find free parking...) .... done with my rant.

You assume incorrectly when you think people care about what you post.

[MUMountin]

Brew77 did the following on 2/11

Interesting.  Thanks for the analysis, Brew77, and the reference, nagini.