The Unravelling of College Football Starts With All These Empty Stadiums

[Tugg Speedman]

I will repeat,the breaking up of the most successful college basketball conference in history, the Big East, was at the exact peak of College football's popularity/influence.

(note this the first of a multi-part series running all week.  I will try and post the other links when they become available.)

The Unravelling of College Football Starts With All These Empty Stadiums
Low attendance threatens today’s ticket revenue and tomorrow’s alumni donations.
by Eben Novy-Williams
‎January‎ ‎03‎, ‎2017‎ ‎10‎:‎04‎ ‎AM

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-01-03/the-unravelling-of-college-football-starts-with-all-these-empty-stadiums

The business model of college football, long a financial boon to universities, is breaking down. A weeklong look at the pressures of rising costs, falling revenue and what, if anything, universities can do about it.

[GGGG]

"Research suggests that when students don’t go to games, they’re less likely to give money after they graduate."

Yeah, but that was an older model of student.  We will have to see if that holds up.

[tower912]

The sooner  the better.  And it is only going  to take one successful concussion lawsuit to really accelerate the death spiral.

[forgetful]

"Research suggests that when students don’t go to games, they’re less likely to give money after they graduate."

Yeah, but that was an older model of student.  We will have to see if that holds up.

I'm almost certain that will hold up.  Most students I know hate the fact that so much is spent on athletics.  They have zero desire to donate to athletics in the future.

Not only that, but talking to students I teach.  Few have any intention of donating to the University in the future.  They view the high tuition prices as highway robbery and feel they've already given enough.

If that holds up, Universities could be in a pinch moving forward. 

[brandx]

Heisy has a new name?

[brandx]

The sooner  the better.  And it is only going  to take one successful concussion lawsuit to really accelerate the death spiral.

I agrees completely.

[GGGG]

I'm almost certain that will hold up.  Most students I know hate the fact that so much is spent on athletics.  They have zero desire to donate to athletics in the future.

Not only that, but talking to students I teach.  Few have any intention of donating to the University in the future.  They view the high tuition prices as highway robbery and feel they've already given enough.

If that holds up, Universities could be in a pinch moving forward. 

I do think the lingering effects of the cost of higher education is going to have a negative impact on giving 20-30 years from now.

[tower912]

They aren't going to be able to donate to the institutions of higher learning, as they are still going to be paying off today's student loans.   Which are going to subsidize today's football teams.

[MUBurrow]

I do think the lingering effects of the cost of higher education is going to have a negative impact on giving 20-30 years from now.

Agree x 100.  Recent grads are unable to donate shortly after graduation due to tremendous debt loads, and yet receive donation requests at least once per quarter.  This perceived tone-deafness is going to make recent grads far less likely to donate, even if/when they are financially able down the road. And I don't think that's unfair.  Schools haven't hesitated to participate in the free money arms race, so why should the students who financially suffered from that cycle bail them out down the road?

[GGGG]

I'm looking at it more emotionally than you are.

Sure they won't donate to annual requests, but most young alumni aren't donating to those already.  I am thinking more about the emotional connection to the school that leads to investment.  Oftentimes that doesn't happen for 20-30 years when an alumnus is financially successful.  That connection may not happen if the experience is viewed more like a transaction.

[MU82]

Heisy has a new name?

Yep. But he'll always be Smuggles to me!

As for the topic ...

Good. College football blows, especially their neanderthal, hypocritical coaches.

[rocky_warrior]

Good. College football blows, especially their neanderthal, hypocritical coaches.

Generally I agree.  I like the (albeit limited) football playoff, but it has me questioning the other bowls.  Yes, I watched the rose bowl yesterday, and it was an exciting game.  But in the end I'm thinking "so if you win this, you're at best #5 in the country?".  I guess it's not much different than winning the NIT, but despite the rose bowl being a "historic" event, it's got to be losing meaning with casual fans, no?

[brandx]

Good. College football blows, especially their neanderthal, hypocritical coaches.

Couldn't agree more.

Maybe they are moving to the 20th century, though. Supporting sexual assault is now a fire-able offense.

[GGGG]

Tracy Claeys pretty much deserved everything he got today.  Lucky he wasn't fired for cause.  (Bee Jay can chime in on the issue of whether or not they simply used this as a convenient excuse to get rid of a mediocre coach.)

[brandx]

Tracy Claeys pretty much deserved everything he got today.  Lucky he wasn't fired for cause.  (Bee Jay can chime in on the issue of whether or not they simply used this as a convenient excuse to get rid of a mediocre coach.)

Yup.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I actually feel a little bit bad for Claeys. I'm not privy to everything that went on, but it must be hard for a coach to balance supporting his players and serving the university when the two are at odds. If he doesn't support the players, he risks losing them. If he doesn't support the university he risks losing his job.I can see how it is a tough choice. He made the wrong one in this case.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I have had this wild fantasy of Kansas dropping football and joining the Big East for a long time. Still a fantasy....but this chart gives me some hope. Maybe if the B12 were to implode after the GoR expires and Kansas were to be left in the dust...

[🏀]

I actually feel a little bit bad for Claeys. I'm not privy to everything that went on, but it must be hard for a coach to balance supporting his players and serving the university when the two are at odds. If he doesn't support the players, he risks losing them. If he doesn't support the university he risks losing his job.I can see how it is a tough choice. He made the wrong one in this case.

I agree, Claeys in a tough spot. However, I think he made the better choice for his ultimate coaching future than short term at Minny.

[GGGG]

I agree, Claeys in a tough spot. However, I think he made the better choice for his ultimate coaching future than short term at Minny.

A better choice?  He will never again be the permanent head coach at a P5 program.  He only got the job in the first place because he has followed Jerry Kill around as his defensive coordinator for years, and when Kill was forced to quite for health reasons, got the job.  (And Minnesota hasn't been known as a defensive powerhouse during his years there either.)

"Supporting his players," and "publicly supporting his players with a tone deaf tweet 24 hours before sexual assault allegations that made the program look terrible" are two different things.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I agree, Claeys in a tough spot. However, I think he made the better choice for his ultimate coaching future than short term at Minny.

Maybe at the time. But once the investigation report got leaked and it became apparent that these players deserved the sanctions, it became the wrong choice. I support student advocacy, but there's a big pr consequence when you are advocating for the wrong thing.

[🏀]

A better choice?  He will never again be the permanent head coach at a P5 program.  He only got the job in the first place because he has followed Jerry Kill around as his defensive coordinator for years, and when Kill was forced to quite for health reasons, got the job.  (And Minnesota hasn't been known as a defensive powerhouse during his years there either.)

"Supporting his players," and "publicly supporting his players with a tone deaf tweet 24 hours before sexual assault allegations that made the program look terrible" are two different things.

Bingo, Claeys wasn't long at Minnesota. He clearly doesn't have the chops for P5 anyway, but he definitely still has a chance at the lesser program where AD value coaches that support their players beyond the field.

Looking at the fallout from his firing, Minnesota may have troubling fielding a team next season.

Maybe at the time. But once the investigation report got leaked and it became apparent that these players deserved the sanctions, it became the wrong choice. I support student advocacy, but there's a big pr consequence when you are advocating for the wrong thing.

Yes, at the time.

[Tugg Speedman]

Part 2 of this series was posted earlier today ...


College Football’s Top Teams Are Built on Crippling Debt
Football’s critics often point to multimillion-dollar coaching salaries. They should be more worried about debt, which costs more and last longer.
by Eben Novy-Williams  January 4, 2017, 4:00 AM CST

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-01-04/college-football-s-top-teams-are-built-on-crippling-debt

[Tugg Speedman]

Part 3 ...

Why TV Riches Aren’t Enough to Keep College Football Alive Anymore
Programs and conferences have sacrificed ticket sales for media money. What happens when that dries up?
by Eben Novy-Williams
January 5, 2017, 4:00 AM CST

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-01-05/why-tv-riches-aren-t-enough-to-keep-college-football-alive-anymore

The pursuit of TV money has led programs and conferences to make all kinds of concessions, and while that might make short-term sense -- media money is guaranteed, ticket sales are not -- it threatens to irritate and alienate the fan base over the long term. In the Pac-12 Conference, for example, broadcasters adjust the kickoff times for schools six to 12 days in advance, often to the frustration of ticket-holders. The Mid-American Conference, a league of schools on par with NMSU, agreed in its deal with ESPN to play football on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, conscious that the games would draw smaller crowds.

The money is persuasive. Eager to hold on to one of the last reliable TV audiences, networks have paid ever-increasing sums for live sports of all kinds. The Big Ten Conference, for example, is about to start a new, six-year TV contract worth $440 million a year, nearly three times what the group was able to negotiate in 2006. Its 14 schools will also share revenue from the Big Ten Network and other smaller media deals. The annual payout to schools such as Michigan and Ohio State, about $32.4 million last year, will increase significantly.

[brandx]

Let the greedy die.

[GGGG]

While I do think we may have reached "Peak Media Rights," part of the reason for Conference USA's decreased deal is because of realignment.

The previous deal was negotiated back in 2011 when Houston, Memphis, Tulsa, Central Florida, Tulane, SMU and East Carolina were still members.

Those schools have been replaced by the likes of Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, North Texas and Texas - San Antonio.  Nine of their 14 members have joined since 2013.  It is really not even the same conference any longer.