[Cracked Sidewalks] Marquette's Path to a 2-Seed

[brewcity77]

I spent some time looking at odds of advancing in the NCAA Tournament by seed from March 2018, as Marquette is very close to playing for nothing but seeding. Even going 1-8 from here on out would put them at 20-12 (9-9) with 10+ Q1/2 wins & at most 1 Q3/4 loss. That's in.

On Bracket Matrix, Marquette is projected on the 3-line, where I also have them below. Being a 2-seed significantly improves a team's odds of March success. In the first round, 2-seeds were 124-8 and 3-seeds were 111-21. 62.9% of 2-seeds get to the Sweet 16, while for 3-seeds it's basically a coin flip at 50.8%. The goal for Marquette should be a 2-seed because it significantly improves their chances of making a run in March.

At this point, I feel there are 6 teams penciled on the first two lines. Virginia, Tennessee, Michigan, Duke, Michigan State, & Gonzaga seem certain to be up there. That leaves I believe 10 teams fighting for those two spots. However, those spots will not go to teams from the same league. Of the 10 teams in the mix, I will assume two will overachieve by 2 wins on Pomeroy to get to a 2-seed. The table below looks at current NET ranking, the Pomeroy regular season projection with two wins added, & records by Quadrant assuming teams get those wins in the easiest quadrants.

Code: [Select]

Team          NET Rank   Kenpom +2 W    Q1 W/L    Q2 W/L     Q3/4 Losses
Kentucky         7         26-5          10-2       7-1          0
Houston          8         30-1           5-1      10-0          0
North Carolina   9         25-6           9-6       9-0          0
Purdue          11         24-7          10-6       6-1          0
Louisville      12         23-8           8-8       6-0          0
Iowa State      14         25-6           9-4       5-2          0
Texas Tech      15         25-6           8-5       9-0          0
Marquette       18         27-4           8-4       9-0          0
Kansas          20         24-7          11-6       8-1          0
Villanova       21         26-5           7-3      12-1          1
First of all, these projections all look at teams overachieving. Of the 10 teams listed, it's safe to say a couple will overachieve significantly (2+ wins), a couple will underachieve significantly (4 fewer wins than above), & the rest will be within 1 win of projection (-1 to -3 wins). So statistically, I looked at the scenario that made Marquette the clear favorite in the event that everyone overachieved. To be assured a 2-seed, Marquette likely needs to go 8-1 the rest of the way, though 7-2 will have them solidly in the discussion.

They definitely need to win their lower quadrant games, vs Georgetown, St. John's, Butler, Creighton, and at DePaul. That insures they would be no worse than tied for the best Q2 Record & Q3/4 Loss totals. That leaves their 4 Quadrant 1 games. They play at Seton Hall, at Providence, & both Villanova games. Go 3-1 or even 2-2 in those games & Marquette will likely have the record to be on the 2-line. Some teams will have more Q1 wins, but few will have a better Q1 winning percentage & only Houston would have both a better Q1 winning percentage with no Q2 or worse losses.

There has been some worry about Marquette's losses looking worse of late. While that's true, Kansas is still top-20 in the NET (top-50 neutral are Q1) & St. John's & Indiana are both top-50 (top-75 road are Q1). It seems unlikely any of them will fall out of the top Quadrant.

Bottom line for Marquette, 7-2 will get them strongly into the mix for a 2-seed, 8-1 will all but guarantee it. Pomeroy projects them to go 6-3 from here on out, so they will need to overachieve a bit, but that's nothing new for a team that's been overachieving all season.

Here's the updated S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-VIRGINIA, 2-TENNESSEE, 3-Michigan, 4-Duke
2-Seeds: 8-Kentucky, 7-North Carolina, 6-GONZAGA, 5-MICHIGAN STATE
3-Seeds: 9-Marquette, 10-HOUSTON, 11-Kansas, 12-Louisville
4-Seeds: 16-Wisconsin, 15-Lsu, 14-Texas Tech, 13-Virginia Tech
5-Seeds: 17-Maryland, 18-Iowa, 19-VILLANOVA, 20-Purdue
6-Seeds: 24-Oklahoma, 23-Iowa State, 22-NEVADA, 21-BUFFALO
7-Seeds: 25-KANSAS STATE, 26-Florida State, 27-Nebraska, 28-Mississippi State
8-Seeds: 32-NC State, 31-Texas, 30-Minnesota, 29-Mississippi
9-Seeds: 33-Auburn, 34-Cincinnati, 35-Tcu, 36-Ohio State
10-Seeds: 40-St. John's, 39-Seton Hall, 38-Syracuse, 37-Baylor
11-Seeds: 41-Alabama, 42-WASHINGTON, 43-LIPSCOMB, 44-WOFFORD
12-Seeds: 50-RADFORD, 49-HOFSTRA, 48-Florida/47-Indiana, 46-Temple/45-Arizona State
13-Seeds: 51-VERMONT, 52-GRAND CANYON, 53-TEXAS STATE, 54-YALE
14-Seeds: 58-OLD DOMINION, 57-LOYOLA CHICAGO, 56-UC IRVINE, 55-NORTHERN KENTUCKY
15-Seeds: 59-GEORGE MASON, 60-BUCKNELL, 61-SOUTH DAKOTA ST, 62-JACKSONVILLE ST
16-Seeds: 68-ROBERT MORRIS/67-PVAMU, 66-SAM HOUSTON ST/65-RIDER, 64-NORFOLK ST, 63-NORTHERN COLORADO

Last Four Byes: Syracuse, Seton Hall, St. John's, Alabama
Last Four In: Arizona State, Temple, Indiana, Florida
NIT 1-Seeds: Utah State, UCF, Arizona, Butler
NIT 2-Seeds: Creighton, UNC Greensboro, VCU, Belmont

[MU82]

Interesting stuff, brewski.

The only tiny nit I'll pick is with this line:

The goal for Marquette should be a 2-seed because it significantly improves their chances of making a run in March.

Coaches and athletes don't think this way. The goal is to win every game; that sounds obvious and/or cliche, but it's true. Do that, and the seeding takes care of itsself. Come close to doing that, and our lads (and us fans) likely will be quite happy with the seeding.

We fans would like our heroes to be a 2-seed. Their goal is to just keep winning. Now maybe if we get down to the last 2 games and we're 6-1, Wojo might let himself think, "If we can win these, we have a great chance to be a 2-seed." Even then, I doubt he'd say it publicly.

Excellent work. A very good read.

[MUBigDance]

When brew starts off a new post with "I spent some time looking at..."   Watch out baby! 

Haven't gone through it yet...but first thought is...can we do a 2 without winning out?

[brewcity77]

When brew starts off a new post with "I spent some time looking at..."   Watch out baby! 

Haven't gone through it yet...but first thought is...can we do a 2 without winning out?

The simple answer is yes. If we get to 26 wins (7-2) we have a shot, if we get to 27 wins (8-1) we are very likely to be a 2-seed. If we win out and win the BET, we might have a shot at a 1-seed, but considering we'll still almost certainly be behind Gonzaga, at least one of Duke/Virginia, at least one of Michigan/Michigan State, and would still have to find a way to get past Tennessee, I think it's highly, highly unlikely even if we enter the Tournament at 31-3.

[muguru]

Funny this discussion comes up right now...Palm has MU as a #2 as of today

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-kansas-slips-down-to-a-no-3-seed-in-the-latest-ncaa-tournament-bracket-projection/

[MUBigDance]

Nice stats and observations.
I see a one-loss regular season puts us at a clear advantage over even over-achieving teams...but I wonder about Houston. I can see them with 1 loss and as you observered a real nice Q1/Q2.  How does a team like Houston "smell" to the committee?  I think they could beat us out.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I will be interested to see where Marquette ranks in the initial release of 16.  That will give us a clue to the committee's thought process.

My gut says Scoop will be disappointed in MU's seed.  A 2 seed looks next to impossible.   Top 6 look pretty secure.

Tennessee
Duke
Virginia
Michigan
Michigan State
Gonzaga

I just don't think Marquette has enough opportunities to add significantly to its resumé due to a down BE.
 

[Its DJOver]

I will be interested to see where Marquette ranks in the initial release of 16.  That will give us a clue to the committee's thought process.

My gut says Scoop will be disappointed in MU's seed.  A 2 seed looks next to impossible.   Top 6 look pretty secure.

Tennessee
Duke
Virginia
Michigan
Michigan State
Gonzaga

I just don't think Marquette has enough opportunities to add significantly to its resumé due to a down BE.
 

This is supposed to be happening soon right?

[Marcus92]

According to KenPom, Houston has played exactly 3 Top 50 teams: #49 Oregon, #22 LSU and #41 Utah State. All at home. Their non-conference strength of schedule is ranked 302nd in Division I. How they do against #50 UCF and #25 Cincy (home/road games remaining with both) will be interesting.

[MU82]

Funny this discussion comes up right now...Palm has MU as a #2 as of today

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-kansas-slips-down-to-a-no-3-seed-in-the-latest-ncaa-tournament-bracket-projection/

In this bracket, our reward for being the No. 2 seed is a first-round matchup against a 2018 Final Four school that is cheered on by arguably the nation's most famous fan.

[SaveOD238]

Funny this discussion comes up right now...Palm has MU as a #2 as of today

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-kansas-slips-down-to-a-no-3-seed-in-the-latest-ncaa-tournament-bracket-projection/

What's amazing is that we're talking about a Final Four path for the men that goes through Des Moines and Louisville.  The fanbase will definitely make the drive for those, giving us a nice advantage.  The women have a chance to have their Final Four path go through Milwaukee and Chicago, which is even better.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I wouldn't pencil Tennessee and Michigan State in for two seeds quite yet. Both have had soft starts to their conference schedules and finish with brutal stretches,  Tennessee especially. Chances are they rise to the occasion but I see a possible scenario where both lose 3 or 4 more games and fall into the 2 seed range.

[Benny B]

I wouldn't pencil Tennessee and Michigan State in for two seeds quite yet. Both have had soft starts to their conference schedules and finish with brutal stretches,  Tennessee especially. Chances are they rise to the occasion but I see a possible scenario where both lose 3 or 4 more games and fall into the 2 seed range.

Is everyone else not concerned about how Moo U is going to fare without Langford?  Because while they may be a 2-seed right now, if I had to switch to a predictive method - i.e. where they'll be on Selection Sunday - my guess is around the 4-line somewhere.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Is everyone else not concerned about how Moo U is going to fare without Langford?  Because while they may be a 2-seed right now, if I had to switch to a predictive method - i.e. where they'll be on Selection Sunday - my guess is around the 4-line somewhere.

PGHero and I had this conversation in another thread. Langford is a big loss but even without him they are 7-1 and has included some pretty dominate performances at Ohio State, vs Maryland, and at Iowa. I do wonder about them going forward. At Wisconsin and Michigan x2 are three really tough games to win without Langford. I could see them dropping all three and maybe even one more and falling towards the back of the protected seeds.

The other challenge with dropping Michigan State is how many Q1 wins they have already racked up. They have 8 Q1 wins, which leads all teams and is 3+ more than most contenders:

Current Q1 Wins:
8 - Michigan State
7 - Kansas
6 - Duke
5 - Virginia, Michigan, Kentucky, North Carolina, Purdue, Wisconsin, Marquette, Baylor (but 2 Q4 losses?)
4 - Gonzaga, Tennessee, Louisville, Iowa State, Villanova, Maryland, Oklahoma, Kansas Sate, Texas, Minnesota
Top teams with less than 4 -  Texas Tech (3), Houston (2), Virginia Tech (2), Nevada (0)

Those kind of wins give Michigan State a nice cushion. Also, nice to see Marquette in the top 11 for most Q1 victories

[Silkk the Shaka]

Funny this discussion comes up right now...Palm has MU as a #2 as of today

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-kansas-slips-down-to-a-no-3-seed-in-the-latest-ncaa-tournament-bracket-projection/

LOL @ Palm referencing RPI in his Last 4 in / First 4 out. The guy straight up sucks at his job!

[Benny B]

PGHero and I had this conversation in another thread. Langford is a big loss but even without him they are 7-1 and has included some pretty dominate performances at Ohio State, vs Maryland, and at Iowa. I do wonder about them going forward. At Wisconsin and Michigan x2 are three really tough games to win without Langford. I could see them dropping all three and maybe even one more and falling towards the back of the protected seeds.

Incidentally, Moo U and Tenn are two potential obstacles in Marquette's path to a favorable first round site.  Consider that, based on geography here...

Michigan is going to Columbus, that's almost a given at this point.
Likewise, Duke is going to Columbia.  Bank on it.
Charlottesville is virtually equidistant to both Columbus and Columbia.
Knoxville is a bit closer to Columbia, but not much further from Columbus.
[So at this point, let's just assume Columbia and Columbus are full.]

In this scenario, it's pretty clear that MSU is headed to Des Moines.  So no problem, right?  Not that easy... our ol' friends down at Adolph-town, you see, are just a tiny bit closer to Des Moines than Jacksonville.  So if the committee just starts at the top of the S-Curve and allocates sites in order, MSU and UK are ahead of MU for Des Moines.  You sort of hope that they look at things holistically (e.g. the combined distances of Lexington-Jacksonville + Milwaukee-Des Moines being less than Lexington-Des Moines + Milwaukee-Tulsa), but there's no guarantee here with everything the committee has to consider in such a limited amount of time.

Now... even if MU can't leapfrog MSU, if UK can leapfrog Tennessee, then UK would go to Columbus, leaving Jacksonville as the superior option for Tennessee and keeping an open spot for MU in Des Moines.  Got it?

tl;dr --- Cheer against Tenn, against MSU, and for UK.

[Silkk the Shaka]

In this bracket, our reward for being the No. 2 seed is a first-round matchup against a 2018 Final Four school that is cheered on by arguably the nation's most famous fan.

Luckily they're back to mediocre this year (not that I'm breaking any news to you) and the whole nation would be watching for the Cinderella factor while we wipe the floor with them!

[DoctorV]

I can probably find this if u search but it’s easier to just ask-

I know the NET slightly adjusted Q1/Q2 midseason and I’m curious if Nova at home is projected to be a Q1 game? I’m assuming Nova away is definitely a Q1 opportunity but I was just wondering how many Q1 games are left on the schedule?

Thanks goodness for a strong OOC so we aren’t sitting here with a solid team and poor computer numbers

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Remember when Davidson was the trendy pick in 2013?

Granted, everyone was almost right but that’s beside the point.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I can probably find this if u search but it’s easier to just ask-

I know the NET slightly adjusted Q1/Q2 midseason and I’m curious if Nova at home is projected to be a Q1 game? I’m assuming Nova away is definitely a Q1 opportunity but I was just wondering how many Q1 games are left on the schedule?

Thanks goodness for a strong OOC so we aren’t sitting here with a solid team and poor computer numbers

Nova home is Q1B (16-30).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I can probably find this if u search but it’s easier to just ask-

I know the NET slightly adjusted Q1/Q2 midseason and I’m curious if Nova at home is projected to be a Q1 game? I’m assuming Nova away is definitely a Q1 opportunity but I was just wondering how many Q1 games are left on the schedule?

Thanks goodness for a strong OOC so we aren’t sitting here with a solid team and poor computer numbers

Q1 and Q2 didn't change adjust per say, they just broke them into Q1a, Q1b,  Q2a,  and Q2b. Any game that was Q1/Q2 before is still a Q1/Q2 today.

There are four Q1 games left in the regular season (with the current NET scores): Nova x2, at Seton Hall, and at Providence. At Providence and Nova at home could drop to Q2 but I doubt it

[brewcity77]

I just don't think Marquette has enough opportunities to add significantly to its resumé due to a down BE.

That's an interesting thought, but I actually think the opposite may be true. Consider the remaining schedules for the teams in the mix:

Kentucky (11 Games, 3rd toughest)
Average Kenpom Home Rating (6): 40
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 40

Kentucky's road is equally tough home and away but they are tied for the highest number of games remaining and 7/11 games are against teams in Pomeroy's top-31. They probably have the third toughest schedule.

Houston (9 Games, 10th toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (4): 71.8
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 139

Houston has the easiest average schedule but it's deceiving. They still have 4 games against the AAC's next two highest ranked teams, Cincinnati and UCF. They also have a road game at UConn, who is just behind Temple (their only loss) in Pomeroy's rankings. They also have the smallest margin for error. 2-3 losses will take them out of 2-seed contention.

North Carolina (11 Games, 4th toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (6): 32.2
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 69.4

UNC is fortunate in that their toughest games are at home, but they are home underdogs twice (UVA & Duke) & do have two tough road games at Louisville (beat them by 20 at home) & Duke. Being underdogs 4 times increases their difficulty.

Purdue (10 Games, 7th toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (5): 53
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 40.6

On paper, Purdue is favored in every game, but their "easiest" road game is against Pomeroy's #61 team. Like Houston, they have a small margin for error. Not because of their conference, but rather because they already have 6 losses.

Louisville (10 Games, 1st Toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (5): 29.8
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 37.8

The Cards only play 2 games outside Pomeroy's top-50. They don't get many off nights, and with 5 losses already, don't have much room for error. They can't afford more than 3 losses, which is a big ask for a team that plays UVa twice, hosts Duke & UNC, and has road games at Va Tech & Syracuse.

Iowa State (10 Games, 2nd toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (5): 28.6
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 48.2

Iowa State is the on-paper favorite to win the Big 12, but 8 of their remaining 10 are against Pomeroy top-35 teams. They are favored in all 10 games, but with 5 losses already can't afford many slips.

Texas Tech (10 Games, 5th toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (5): 52.4
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 34.4

They still have Kansas twice and a trip to Ames to play an ISU team that already beat them. TTU faces the toughest set of road games of any team on this list.

Marquette (9 Games, 9th toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (5): 52.2
Average Kenpom Away Rating (4): 75.8

Marquette has two big advantages here. First, they only have 9 games remaining, giving them fewer chances to slip up, and second their toughest games are at home. If they win their next two, they seem a solid bet to finish their home schedule unbeaten, and 3 of their 4 road games are against teams in the bottom half of Big East kenpom ratings (68, 76, 120). If Marquette does get to 10-1 on NMD, they will look like a solid bet to finish at least 15-3 and solidly in the mix for a 2-seed.

Kansas (10 Games, 6th toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (5): 54.4
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 40.4

The Jayhawks have been money at home, though that will be tested Saturday by Texas Tech. They have a tough slate of road games and are underdogs in 3 of them. 7 of their 10 remaining games are against Kenpom top-50 teams.

Villanova (10 Games, 8th toughest)

Average Kenpom Home Rating (5): 59
Average Kenpom Away Rating (5): 64.2

Villanova has a very similar schedule to Marquette, slightly easier at home, slightly tougher on the road, but they also carry a Q2 & Q3 loss, so they need to do more work to get to the same result. Villanova has to win the Big East outright to get ahead of Marquette. The key will be a four road games in five stretch in February that starts on NMD.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Damn Brew, this is truly great stuff. Major value add to the board

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Brew-

My thought process is that the committee will emphasize Q1A wins.  Marquette is behind the 1 seeds with no chance of catching them.  Even the 2 seeds are well positioned ahead of Marquette.

The teams I don't see Marquette catching are at all:

Duke
Tennessee
Virginia
Michigan
Michigan State

Then add Kentucky,  UNC, Louisville,  Gonzaga, and Kansas.  Can Marquette finish better than 3 of those teams?  That is a tall order.

Plus, watch out for Texas Tech, Iowa St, LSU, Purdue, Virginia Tech, and Wisconsin if any of them get on a roll.  Even Villanova could pass Marquette.

I think a 3 is the ceiling.  Maybe even a 4.

[SoCalEagle]

Michigan is down by 13 to unranked Iowa at the half.

[rocket surgeon]

Weak weak weak pac 10- any slip up by Gonzaga opens the door if we take care of business on our end

[SoCalEagle]

Michigan is going down.

Go Hawkeyes!!!

[Lennys Tap]

Interesting and good stuff, Brew. One quibble: why are #10 VTech, #13 UW, #16 LSU and #17 Nevada not in competition with #18 MU for a high seed? One observation: I think (like Lazar) it will be extremely difficult for MU to reach the 2 line. Our conference is weak so there is little or no margin for error.

[rocket surgeon]

Michigan got smoked!!  Talk about peeking at the wrong time...unless they can use all this to motivate, but it is also exposing weaknesses

[Herman Cain]

I am delighted to just be in the tournament. Any good seeding we get is frosting on the cake. I think if we finish out the season strong and do well in the BET we will get rewarded with a 3. Would like to see us soundly thrash The Johnnies , which offsets that loss . Also would like to see at a minimum get a split with Nova and if we could get to the BET final and beat them we could even make a case for the 2 seeding.

There are still a lot of Big East games left and we need to see how that plays out for the rest of the league. A couple teams in the group of 8 teams are going to play well and that will help our seeding cause.

[MU82]

Michigan got smoked!!  Talk about peeking at the wrong time...unless they can use all this to motivate, but it is also exposing weaknesses

When I was 13, I had a chance to see a naked girl but I peeked at the wrong time.

[jsglow]

I see that others have jumped on it.  Michigan was December's news.  Brew's 'best team' is fading.  They looked horrible against Bucky and have now lost again.  Now's there's plenty of time to recover but....

[WarriorFan]

This team needs to learn how to play for seeding.  Margin of victory is important as is winning everything they're supposed to win.  It might not be such a big thing this year because fans are just happy they're not on the bubble but next year they should be playing for a one seed.

[brewcity77]

Interesting and good stuff, Brew. One quibble: why are #10 VTech, #13 UW, #16 LSU and #17 Nevada not in competition with #18 MU for a high seed? One observation: I think (like Lazar) it will be extremely difficult for MU to reach the 2 line. Our conference is weak so there is little or no margin for error.

All good questions, and all teams I briefly considered.

For Virginia Tech & LSU, they simply didn't do enough in the non-conference. Virginia Tech's entire resume so far boils down to the win over Purdue. LSU is similar, they just haven't beat anyone to justify inclusion on the 2-line. If either ended up winning out, they could get there, but I'm assuming teams finish 2 games over Pomeroy and neither of them have any real likelihood of picking up the required results without vastly overperforming.

Wisconsin is similar, but moreso because of some of the losses they picked up. Minnesota and Western Kentucky will drag their resume down, and they would have to finish 3+ games over Pomeroy projections to realistically have a shot. For them, it's mainly the quantity of losses and that they don't have a ton of great pickup games left. They probably need to win out or lose at most 1 game.

As far as Nevada...I think their ceiling if they win out is probably a 4-seed. Maybe a 3 if other teams fall off, but there's just no quality to their resume. If they win every game, they will have 1 Quadrant 1 victory. Sure, they're 8-0 in Q2, but they don't have any more Q2 games. And they have a worse loss than anyone here. I can't see a team that's 21-1 in Q3/4 games with only 1 Q1 win getting any serious consideration for a 2-seed.

If you look at the mid and low majors that have earned high seeds, they have played people. Gonzaga in 2017 played Florida, Iowa State, Arizona, and Tennessee away from home. In 2015, the Zags got a 2 playing Georgia, St. John's, Arizona, SMU, and UCLA. Even the Wichita State team that got a 1-seed played Tennessee, BYU, & St. Louis, all NCAA teams. Nevada has one win over an Arizona State team that will be at best a bubble team. They just don't have the resume. They'll remain highly ranked, but lost any hope at a 2/3 seed in my opinion when they lost at New Mexico.

[brewcity77]

I see that others have jumped on it.  Michigan was December's news.  Brew's 'best team' is fading.  They looked horrible against Bucky and have now lost again.  Now's there's plenty of time to recover but....

I'd guess they'll be a 2 on my board next week, and had dropped from the top overall seed awhile ago. Through December 1, they were unassailable as the #1 team in the country. Undefeated with an average scoring margin of 21.4 ppg, no wins less than 17 points, and victories over 4 high-majors (3 of whom are listed here as in the mix for a 2-seed). The November sheen has worn off and their last four will be really interesting. Two against Michigan State and a trip to Maryland.

As far as Marquette...really I think their future depends on who they are. Is this 16-1 stretch legit? Will they handle trips to DePaul, Providence, and Seton Hall as well as they did trips to Georgetown, Xavier, and Butler? Will they continue to hold serve at Fiserv Forum, where they are 14-0? If the answer to those questions is yes, they are a 2-seed. If they are the team that Pomeroy thinks they are, and the team that I pointed out as being lucky to have the record they do, then they will probably drop 2-3 they shouldn't (on paper) and end up somewhere in the 3-5 range.

On the upside, it does look that barring a total collapse, a 5-seed is about the worst we can expect, and I think most Scoopers would've been happy with that in October, even if it would be a bit of a disappointment now.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

As far as Nevada...I think their ceiling if they win out is probably a 4-seed. Maybe a 3 if other teams fall off, but there's just no quality to their resume. If they win every game, they will have 1 Quadrant 1 victory. Sure, they're 8-0 in Q2, but they don't have any more Q2 games. And they have a worse loss than anyone here. I can't see a team that's 21-1 in Q3/4 games with only 1 Q1 win getting any serious consideration for a 2-seed.

If you look at the mid and low majors that have earned high seeds, they have played people. Gonzaga in 2017 played Florida, Iowa State, Arizona, and Tennessee away from home. In 2015, the Zags got a 2 playing Georgia, St. John's, Arizona, SMU, and UCLA. Even the Wichita State team that got a 1-seed played Tennessee, BYU, & St. Louis, all NCAA teams. Nevada has one win over an Arizona State team that will be at best a bubble team. They just don't have the resume. They'll remain highly ranked, but lost any hope at a 2/3 seed in my opinion when they lost at New Mexico.

Nevada is such an interesting case. When is the last time a preseason top 10 team played such a weak schedule? I'm not sure it has happened in the modern era. If the committee goes on pure resume They probably are a 6 seed or lower if they win out. If they go by the mindset of "they are a preseason top 10 team who lost one game all season" they are a 1 seed. Other than us, the team I'm most interested in seeing placed in the top 16 is Nevada.

[HowardsWorld]

Nevada is such an interesting case. When is the last time a preseason top 10 team played such a weak schedule? I'm not sure it has happened in the modern era. If the committee goes on pure resume They probably are a 6 seed or lower if they win out. If they go by the mindset of "they are a preseason top 10 team who lost one game all season" they are a 1 seed. Other than us, the team I'm most interested in seeing placed in the top 16 is Nevada.

It defintely is an interesting case. I often look at Gonzaga as a measuring stick for what to expect from other mid majors who crack the top 10. Gonzaga is a good team no doubt but the fact that they get to beat up on WCC teams every year for 18 games makes it hard to judge who they really are. Yes they beat Duke but lost to North Carolina and Tennessee. They are a good team but in a different conference even the Pac-12 they probably are undefeated in conference.

On to Nevada. They have realistically one ok win vs Arizona State. Again in a conference like the big East, Big 10 or ACC they are probably above .500 but not the record they have. I think for the most part there resume will have holes. Not sure how many Q1 wins they have maybe 1? St. Joe's in 2004 is the only time I have seen a team get a 1 seed that really didn't earn it. They got in strictly on their undefeated record not the teams they beat.

If I had to bet  on Nevada I would say the highest they will get is a 3 seed if they win out and probably get matched up with the best 14 seed and then a 6 seed who should have been given a 4 or 5 and they dont make it out of the first weekend.

[brewcity77]

Nevada is such an interesting case. When is the last time a preseason top 10 team played such a weak schedule? I'm not sure it has happened in the modern era. If the committee goes on pure resume They probably are a 6 seed or lower if they win out. If they go by the mindset of "they are a preseason top 10 team who lost one game all season" they are a 1 seed. Other than us, the team I'm most interested in seeing placed in the top 16 is Nevada.

They remind me a ton of that Wichita State team that got a 7-seed in 2015, but with an even worse schedule. That team went 28-4 but was top-10 in Pomeroy going in. Like Nevada, they had some wins that looked okay on paper in the preseason and good computer numbers, but ultimately there was no substance to the resume. I know it's hard to get games when you are a team like Nevada, but you can't expect the committee to judge you favorably when they don't have anything to judge you on.