Big East Polls, NET Rankings and Team Sheets

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Thanks. That might be just me, but I think blowing out cupcakes does not indicate who is good and who is not.

It doesn't,  that's why there's a committee and why VT will be seeded below us (assuming they don't do something amazing in the acc tournament). It's also why I think we end up seeded as a 7. We got our NET without blowing out 6 cupcakes and I think that helps our cause

[Goose]

I think we end up a 7 as well.

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of March 5 , 2022
New Old
6   7   Villanova   
19   18   UConn   
26   24   Providence   
31   33   Seton Hall   
35   37   Xavier   
37   36   Marquette   
65   62   Creighton   
73   72   St. John's
101   102   DePaul   
128   125   Butler   
197   193   Georgetown

March 6 Team Sheets. Marquette is 37
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets

[brewcity77]

Thanks. That might be just me, but I think blowing out cupcakes does not indicate who is good and who is not.

You'll find common cause with Badger fans. But personally, I think letting sub-150 Georgia Tech, Nicholls, and Illinois State stay within 4 points says a lot about team quality, or rather lack thereof, as well.

[Uncle Rico]

You'll find common cause with Badger fans. But personally, I think letting sub-150 Georgia Tech, Nicholls, and Illinois State stay within 4 points says a lot about team quality, or rather lack thereof, as well.

Great teams run up the score

[Newsdreams]

Thanks. That might be just me, but I think blowing out cupcakes does not indicate who is good and who is not.

It is well known that the NET takes into account winning and losing margins, part of the whole equation, plus how those cupcakes do during the season also part of the equation. Whether you like it or not it is what it is.

[The Equalizer]

It is well known that the NET takes into account winning and losing margins, part of the whole equation, plus how those cupcakes do during the season also part of the equation. Whether you like it or not it is what it is.

Does it?  According to this article, the NCAA dropped winning margin in 2020.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/

"Winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin will no longer be components in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) used to judge Division I basketball teams, the NCAA announced Monday. "

[Jay Bee]

Does it?  According to this article, the NCAA dropped winning margin in 2020.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/

"Winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin will no longer be components in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) used to judge Division I basketball teams, the NCAA announced Monday. "

It’s in the adjusted eff margin. The scoring margin that went away had a cap on it

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Does DePaul have a shot at the NIT?

[MarquetteMike1977]

Does DePaul have a shot at the NIT?

Not sure but the announcers on the FOX UCONN DePaul said DePaul a shot at the NIT

[MarquetteMike1977]

TeamRankings Logo Marquette Logo   Marquette Basketball
Predictions Update
Mar 6, 2022
•   Marquette finished the regular season yesterday by beating St Johns 85-77.
•     We currently rank Marquette as the #41 team in the country, and the #6 team in the Big East.
Regular Season Final Report
Final Overall Record   19-11
Final Big East Record   11-8
Predictive Rank #41
Big East Tournament Projections
Odds For Marquette To Reach Round
Quarter   100.0%
Semi   58.7%
Championship   28.2%
Winner   9.0%
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 100%   
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 9%
Projected Seed 8

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Does it?  According to this article, the NCAA dropped winning margin in 2020.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-announces-changes-to-simplify-formula-for-college-basketballs-net-ratings/

"Winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin will no longer be components in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) used to judge Division I basketball teams, the NCAA announced Monday. "

Yes,  that's gone. But the NET is mostly based on adj efficiency margin.  It's not a 1 to 1 comparison but in general,  the larger the scoring margin,  the larger the adj efficiency margin. So teams are rewarded for running up the score on cupcakes.

Brew is correct though,  if you can only beat your cupcakes by five, that shouldn't be counted the same as someone who beats the same cupcakes by 40. But IMHO there's too much value given in blowout wins over cupcakes

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of March 6, 2022
New Old
6   6   Villanova   
18   19   UConn   
26   26   Providence   
32   31   Seton Hall   
36   35   Xavier   
38   37   Marquette   
66   65   Creighton   
73   73   St. John's
101   101   DePaul   
129   128   Butler   
198   197   Georgetown   

March 7 Team Sheets. Marquette is 38
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets

[NCMUFan]

From the net rankings, it appears Marquette is really significantly better than Creighton and gets the win on Thursday.
I feel it is a good matchup for Marquette.  Hopefully we come out as a focused group on a mission.

[brewcity77]

Yes,  that's gone. But the NET is mostly based on adj efficiency margin.  It's not a 1 to 1 comparison but in general,  the larger the scoring margin,  the larger the adj efficiency margin. So teams are rewarded for running up the score on cupcakes.

Brew is correct though,  if you can only beat your cupcakes by five, that shouldn't be counted the same as someone who beats the same cupcakes by 40. But IMHO there's too much value given in blowout wins over cupcakes

There are fixes they could go with. Make the model regressive, so that your efficiency margins have less impact the wider they get. Beating a team by 10 is good, beating a team by 20 is better, beating a team by 30+ is best, but the difference between 10-20 and 20-30 are not the same, and a regressive model would address that.

Or they could use a formula like analytically final, which Haslametrics uses. Once the margin gets so big that there simply isn't enough time for the other team to come back, his model no longer takes that data into account. That would eliminate a lot of the garbage time comeback or running up the score volume.

They could also use game control, which determines how thoroughly a team is in control, and compare that to strength of schedule. So if you lead by 15+ the entire way and weather a late comeback to win by 9, it will be viewed more favorably than if you lead by 3-5 the entire way but score 10 points from the line in the last minute to win by 15.

There are a lot of possible solutions, but I will stress that NET is still primarily a sorting tool and not the be-all end-all of selection (which is why Virginia Tech needs an autobid to get in) and it's still way better than RPI.

[lawdog77]

I just like shaking my fist at the clouds. We are idle: we drop 1 spot. Madison loses at home to a pathetic Nebraska team, they drop 1 spot. The NCAA Net is mad at us for Al turning down an NCAA bid.

[Herman Cain]

Big East Poll Rankings  March 7,2022
AP
8.Nova
11. Cooley & Company
20. U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall
Coaches
8.Nova
10.Cooley& Company
20. U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall, MU, Creighton

[MarquetteMike1977]

Marquette is 4-2 combined against Providence Villanova Illinois and UW. Marquette is 4-2 against the leaders of the Big East and Big Ten.

[NCMUFan]

That was then.  It all depends on how we play now. 

[willie warrior]

Big East Poll Rankings  March 7,2022
AP
8.Nova
11. Cooley & Company
20. U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall
Coaches
8.Nova
10.Cooley& Company
20. U-Conn
Others Receiving Votes
The Hall, MU, Creighton

Huge mistake by those voters. We are now ready to roll----iiiitttts tourney time.

[Slim]

NET - the enemy of the walk-on

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of March 7, 2022
New Old
6   6   Villanova   
19   18   UConn   
26   26   Providence   
32   32   Seton Hall   
36   36   Xavier   
38   38   Marquette   
66   66   Creighton   
72   73   St. John's
101   101   DePaul
129   129   Butler   
199   198   Georgetown   

March  8 Team Sheets. Marquette is 38
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of March 8, 2022
New Old
 6   6   Villanova   
18   19   UConn
26    26    Providence   
32   32   Seton Hall   
36   36   Xavier   
38   38   Marquette   
66   66   Creighton   
72   72   St. John's
101   101   DePaul   
128   129   Butler   
198   199   Georgetown   

March  9 Team Sheets. Marquette is 38
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets

[cheebs09]

I believe Butler has to stay under 135for us to avoid a Q3 loss. So hopefully they can lose efficiently or get an efficient win or two in the BET.

[brewcity77]

I believe Butler has to stay under 135for us to avoid a Q3 loss. So hopefully they can lose efficiently or get an efficient win or two in the BET.

This is correct, and it might make a difference. For the most part, the top-16 are set pretty early. They might move teams a little bit, but because the bracket will hinge on where those teams go, that's one of the first steps. The Selection Committee will also have a good idea who who is getting bids at the bubble. That will be mostly today and tomorrow. The biggest place for movement is in the 6-10 range, where we squarely sit. Keeping no bad losses and adding a quality win or two (Creighton and PC/X would be added to our Q1+2 total) wouldn't hurt.