Kolek planning to go pro
I am not entering the apple stock good/bad argument. Not my area, I can not offer any accurate insight. But you're wrong on claiming iphone 5 was a "big idea" and the iPhone 6 was not. Either they are both "big ideas" or neither are, which is a matter of opinion. But they both fit in the same box.
Uh ... no ... unless you are using some of your comrade's alternative facts. Smuggles.I just plugged the numbers into the investment calculator at longrundata.com using a start date of 1/31/13 and an end date of 1/31/17 - in other words, the last 4 years.$1,000 invested in AAPL on 1/31/13 was worth $2,029.42 at market close yesterday, an annual gain of 19.34% and a total gain of 103%.$1,000 invested in SPY on 1/31/13 was worth $1,648.17 at market close yesterday, an annual gain of 13.30% and a total gain of 65%.So unless you are in a universe in which 65% is better than 103% and 13% is better than 19%, you are mistaken. Oh, and that doesn't even count today's big jump for AAPL. If we run the numbers again tomorrow using 2/1 dates instead of 1/31 dates, AAPL's outperformance will be even more sizable.Just for giggles and snorts, I also ran the numbers for 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year and 15-year periods. AAPL beat SPY in every time period, usually by a considerable margin.I'm sure you could cherry-pick dates and find some period in which SPY beat AAPL, but that's not the point here, right? You sounded very sure of yourself - some might even say smug - with your 4-year declaration.Going forward? Who really knows? You claim to, but I'm guessing that 1, 3 and 5 years ago you were making similar claims about SPY being a lock to beat AAPL going forward.Smuggles, I'm not even a huge AAPL bull. I only own about 100 shares. I'm a buy-and-hold guy who may never sell them but very well might not buy any more (except via dripping). I simply prefer facts to silly statements that are presented as facts but aren't facts at all.#actualfacts
Damn it. Heisy keeps losing us $$ AAPL up another 6%+ today to a close of $128.79. Headlines about how great the 7 Plus is... #SizeMatters
Why did you pick the low to measure this? September 21, 2012 AAPL was $100. January 31, 2013 it was $60. You ignored the decline.
You need to consider two things (not sure longrundata.com does):1) Transactions cost. It is often cheaper to purchase an index than it is to purchase one stock. These costs can eat into your total return.2) Risk. True evaluation of stock performance accounts for risk, i.e., focusing on a risk-adjusted return (e.g., Sharpe Ratio).
The spikes are new phone releases. So Q1 and Q2 will fall dramatically. As noted in a post on the previous page, smooth out the new release speikes and iPhones have negative growth since 2014.
OK.And yet AAPL has beaten SPY in 1-, 3-, 5-, 10- and 15-year periods. In fact, it has beaten SPY handily over most of those periods. I wish I had owned it for 15 years instead of 1.5 years!But you know that AAPL will lag from here on out. Just as you knew it 5 years ago, I'm sure.#actualfacts.
The chart below is the ratio of Apple's stock price to the S&P 500 Index. It is a total return chart so dividends are included. Highlighted on the chart are important milestones in blue and peaks and troughs of the ratio in black.To be clear, when the ratio is rising Apple is beating the overall market. When it is falling it is lagging the overall market.The ratio peaked three days before the release of the iPhone5 (September 18, 2012). That was the end of Apple being a relentless out-performer (ratio always going up). Or, as I have said before, the market thinks Apple as an innovator stopped with the release of the iPhone5 as the smart phone was completely developed by that release (and LTE compatible). This was the last product Steve Jobs worked on.If you really believe that the introduction of new sizes with the iPhone6 and its different sizes was a game changer, see the release dates on the ratio chart. The ratio went up and down after the 6 and was still below the iPhone6 release date just two weeks ago. This means if you bought Apple's stock the day the iPhone6 was released believing the new sizes were game changers, the market has not validated this belief. In other words, the iPhone6 and new sizes has not re-established the ratio's relentless uptrend seen before 2012.Since September 21, 2012 the ratio of Apple's stock has moved sideways meaning it is moving in-line with the overall market. Yes it has its periods where the ratio rises, like now, and when it falls. Restated, Apple is a trading vehicle that is bought and sold. Since it is no longer an innovator, the ratio will continue sideways to lower. Apple is still viable as a utility, you buy a new phone when your old phone breaks.Apple can prove me wrong at anytime. Invent something that makes the market think it is the innovator it was when Steve Jobs ran it. I'd bet it cannot.
OK, Smuggles. You have altered your point so it isn't erroneous but it still isn't really confirmation of anything. You also have made a prediction that only time will tell is accurate or not.So as of right now, nothing to see here. Except some nice profits for those who bought AAPL on the pullback.
Did not alter my point. May not have articulated it well at times but never altered.nothing to see here. Except some nice profits for those who bought AAPL on the pullback.Exactly, it a trading vehicle, like bean futures that you trade in and out of. Or as they say on Wall Street, rent it from time to time, but don't own it.
AAPL just announced it's going big-time into India, a largely untapped, cellphone-crazy market with 1 billion people. It would seem there are plenty of growth opportunities ahead.I'll leave my 100 shares alone and enjoy the ride. You trade in and out and have fun. We can both be happy. The main difference between us - not just concerning AAPL but most things - is that I don't make bold statements in which I declare absolute certainty about subjects.But that's why you're Smuggles and I'm not!
I've enjoyed buying APPL in the $90s and selling in the $130s. Done that several times.
WSJ article this morning touting the performance of AAPL & the building excitement for its next phone. Goldman Sachs put out a price target of $150 todayStock is at $133.53 at the momentThanks a lot, Yukon
I've been trading for over 30 years and when the "town crier" emerges, it is one of the most dangerous things to profits,. Because the town crier is too emotionally invested in his position to see otherwise.What is the town crier? Someone that is so emotionally invested in a position that when it moves in their favor, they cannot contain themselves so they start "crying out" every new high. This is Jay Bee crying out every time AAPL moves another dollar is his favor. The problem is he is blinded. He will lose a substantial sum of his money. Not if, only when.