2021-22 Big East Conference Results

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I know that I've been a little snarky about kenpom. It's not that I don't "like" it or "trust" it, it's that I feel sometimes it's used as a crutch a little too much. We've got a game in 24 hours, and all some folks (not you Unk) talk about is what kenpom says, as if we might as well not even bother playing. And then there's the whole thing of the first two months of kenpom ratings being fairly close to worthless because they're based on the previous season, even though teams increasingly have 50% roster turnover or more.

But I know there's nothing perfect out there, and an awful lot of knowledgeable Scoopers like you, brew, TAMU, etc, really think highly of kenpom, so I'll try to "respect the kenpom process" going forward.

You've got a couple of misconceptions about KenPom in here. First, not once has anyone suggested anything close to the "might as well not play the game" trope that you and Billy like to break out (if nothing else, KenPom can bring opposites together!). The reason people use it is because it is an objective, data informed model that takes the homerism and emotion out of predictions and rankings. It gives us a baseline of what the data "expects" to happen, knowing that 98 times out of 100, it isn't going to be exactly right. No one treats it like gospel, as Rico said, it's one tool in the toolbelt.

The first two months of KenPom are not "close to worthless", they get steadily more accurate as the season goes on. You bring up roster turnover as if that dismisses KenPom's value. KenPom accounts for roster turnover. The results of the previous season that are used aren't based on last year's Marquette team. They are based on the data from how the players performed the previous season wherever they were. So wrapped up in KenPom's initial rankings for Marquette was Lewis' freshman year stats, Tyler's stats at George Mason, O-Max's stats at Clemson, as well as projections for the freshmen based on their rankings. What was not included in his initial rankings for Marquette was anything related to Carton, McEwen, John, etc. While not as accurate as quantifying player value from the current season, there are still ways to project how a player is likely to perform this season given their performance in past seasons. And again, no one treats this like gospel. It's just a neutral and objective way to provide a baseline for what the team is expected to do going into the season. One tool in the tool belt.

[shoothoops]

In the past 25 years, 12 coaches were winless in conference. Of the 12, 3 kept their job the following season. (CBS Sports)

[GooooMarquette]

In the past 25 years, 12 coaches were winless in conference. Of the 12, 3 kept their job the following season. (CBS Sports)

If Ewing wasn’t a Georgetown icon, he would likely be gone. One winning season in five (including this season), and the BET was a fluke. Even Wojo had a (considerably) better record after five seasons, and only missed the NCAA in season five because of COVID.

Wojo: 97-68
Ewing: 68-78

Wojo was carried by his Duke pedigree and recruiting. It will be interesting to see how far Ewing’s Georgetown playing days carry him….

[shoothoops]

If Ewing wasn’t a Georgetown icon, he would likely be gone. One winning season in five (including this season), and the BET was a fluke. Even Wojo had a (considerably) better record after five seasons, and only missed the NCAA in season five because of COVID.

Wojo: 97-68
Ewing: 68-78

Wojo was carried by his Duke pedigree and recruiting. It will be interesting to see how far Ewing’s Georgetown playing days carry him….

Matt Norlander did the research, and in his opinion, Ewing will not get fired. If he steps down it will be his choice.

The 3 who survived were Jerry Wainwright, Trent Johnson, Jim Christian.

Wainwright, DePaul 2009, in his 4th season, and he lasted 1 more season.

Trent Johnson, TCU 2014, in his 2nd season, and he lasted 2 more seasons.

Jim Christian BC 2016, in his 2nd season, and he lasted 5 more seasons.

The 9 who did not survive:

Baylor, 1999 (0-16) / Harry Miller after fifth season
Northwestern, 2000 (0-16) / Kevin O'Neill after third season
Texas A&M, 2004 (0-16) / Melvin Watkins after sixth season
Oregon State, 2008 (0-18) / Jay John fired sixth season
Fordham, 2010 (0-16) / Derrick Whittenburg after seventh season
Pitt, 2018 (0-18) / Kevin Stallings fired second second
Tulane, 2019 (0-18) / Mike Dunleavy fired third season
Vanderbilt, 2019 (0-18) / Bryce Drew fired third season
Iowa State, 2021 (0-18) / Steve Prohm fired sixth season

I know Bryce Drew was shocked that he was fired as several top players Darius Garland etc missed the season due to injury. It was a new AD (that makes a difference too) that came in and fired him without discussion. Drew underestimated the importance of at least winning a few games in conference. (He has since bounced back at Grand Canyon.)

We’ll see about Ewing. I hope he wins a few league games.

[Herman Cain]

Creighton Aims To Stay Hot Versus DePaul

https://wgnradio.com/sports/creighton-aims-to-stay-hot-vs-depaul/

[mugrad_89]

Looks like there might be 500 folks at the Creighton/DePaul game.  👀

[MU82]

You've got a couple of misconceptions about KenPom in here. First, not once has anyone suggested anything close to the "might as well not play the game" trope that you and Billy like to break out (if nothing else, KenPom can bring opposites together!). The reason people use it is because it is an objective, data informed model that takes the homerism and emotion out of predictions and rankings. It gives us a baseline of what the data "expects" to happen, knowing that 98 times out of 100, it isn't going to be exactly right. No one treats it like gospel, as Rico said, it's one tool in the toolbelt.

The first two months of KenPom are not "close to worthless", they get steadily more accurate as the season goes on. You bring up roster turnover as if that dismisses KenPom's value. KenPom accounts for roster turnover. The results of the previous season that are used aren't based on last year's Marquette team. They are based on the data from how the players performed the previous season wherever they were. So wrapped up in KenPom's initial rankings for Marquette was Lewis' freshman year stats, Tyler's stats at George Mason, O-Max's stats at Clemson, as well as projections for the freshmen based on their rankings. What was not included in his initial rankings for Marquette was anything related to Carton, McEwen, John, etc. While not as accurate as quantifying player value from the current season, there are still ways to project how a player is likely to perform this season given their performance in past seasons. And again, no one treats this like gospel. It's just a neutral and objective way to provide a baseline for what the team is expected to do going into the season. One tool in the tool belt.

Thanks for some points of clarification.

I guess I don't know where I got the "kenpom isn't very useful the first couple of months" thing from. I actually thought it was from a kenpom fan.

But I hear ya.

[GooooMarquette]

Matt Norlander did the research, and in his opinion, Ewing will not get fired. If he steps down it will be his choice.

I agree with Norlander. I just added another reason.

[Johnny B]

my local highschool gets more asses in the seats than this depaul game.

[MuggsyB]

I'm not impressed by Creighton or DePaul.  Marquette should pummel both of these teams and it's not debatable.

[jfp61]

Kaluma matters, plus creighton still won by 12. They play great defense. We'll still be slight dogs

[BM1090]

I'm not impressed by Creighton or DePaul.  Marquette should pummel both of these teams and it's not debatable.

It is debatable, because we’ll be underdogs on Sunday.

[bradforster]

We should have fouled up three with 3 seconds on the clock!  I sure hope we exact revenge on this young, awful three point shooting team.  It’s imperative Marquette comes out swinging.  The listless starts lately, especially on the road, are a concern.

[MuggsyB]

It is debatable, because we’ll be underdogs on Sunday.

I could care less about the bet line.  They are not impressive at all and if we play a solid game we will get the W.

[BM1090]

I could care less about the bet line.  They are not impressive at all and if we play a solid game we will get the W.

People who do this for a living and know more than you and I think otherwise. We’re the better team. But weekend game in a hostile environment. It’s a toss up. Creighton is 5-1 in February including a win against UConn. The other four have been against the bottom of the conference.

The betting spot probably favors MU. Creighton has covered in 3 in a row, MU has failed to cover in 3 in a row. Shaka is historically very good as an underdog.

I think we’ll win but it’s going to be a rock fight. Creighton has been far and away the best defensive team in the Big East this season and they defend the pick and roll well.

[DoctorV]

Marquette is the better team and will have a big chip on its shoulder after the first game at the serve, so I have a good feeling about this one on the road.

That said, if we are being completely honest this one matters a lot more for Creighton.

In the bracketology podcast Brew mentioned that he was very confident in Creightons tourney chances, but they are definitely the bubbliest of the BE teams.
Their computer numbers are doing them no favors- 65 in KenPom and 71 in the NET, yikes.

They need to improve those numbers and finish the season strong if they want to get a bid IMO, and that’s a big opportunity for them on Sunday so they will be hungry (finish off with @StJ, @Prov, v UConn, v SH)

I think they are in the pickle that Marquette was in before their metrics and perception greatly increased after that amazing stretch and Nova sweep.
10-9 in conference likely won’t do it IMO.
11-8 will probably still leave them on the bubble, but still not sure if they would be on the right side tbh (I would guess Dayton with that record at this point).

Since that lucky win over Marquette at the turn of the new year Creightons wins are as follows
At Home over StJ, DePaul, Butler, Georgetown.
On the road over Georgetown, DePaul, UConn.

That’s one good win.
They have the @Uconn, @MU and home clobber of Nova as nice resume pieces and the committee will like that, but unfortunately I don’t think the committee will view the BE as elite as say the B12 or SEC or B10 this year because Nova isn’t as strong and generally speaking the BE will have two top 3/4 seeds (Nova, Providence) and a slew of 5-8 seeds (UConn, MU, X, SH likely lower).

Not sure one good home win versus a 3 seed and a few road wins over 4-6 seeds will be enough to get them in with those computer numbers, and I’m pretty confident it actually wouldn’t.
Now, add a season sweep of MU or UConn (both coming up at home) or a win at Providence and pump that NET into the 55 range and then you’ll likely convince the committee.

Good news is that Coach McDermott recently said in an interview that they are running on fumes. Get after them with high energy and intensity early and often, break their spirit and their lively crowd and bring home a dub

[MuggsyB]

Marquette is the better team and will have a big chip on its shoulder after the first game at the serve, so I have a good feeling about this one on the road.

That said, if we are being completely honest this one matters a lot more for Creighton.

In the bracketology podcast Brew mentioned that he was very confident in Creightons tourney chances, but they are definitely the bubbliest of the BE teams.
Their computer numbers are doing them no favors- 65 in KenPom and 71 in the NET, yikes.

They need to improve those numbers and finish the season strong if they want to get a bid IMO, and that’s a big opportunity for them on Sunday so they will be hungry (finish off with @StJ, @Prov, v UConn, v SH)

I think they are in the pickle that Marquette was in before their metrics and perception greatly increased after that amazing stretch and Nova sweep.
10-9 in conference likely won’t do it IMO.
11-8 will probably still leave them on the bubble, but still not sure if they would be on the right side tbh (I would guess Dayton with that record at this point).

Since that lucky win over Marquette at the turn of the new year Creightons wins are as follows
At Home over StJ, DePaul, Butler, Georgetown.
On the road over Georgetown, DePaul, UConn.

That’s one good win.
They have the @Uconn, @MU and home clobber of Nova as nice resume pieces and the committee will like that, but unfortunately I don’t think the committee will view the BE as elite as say the B12 or SEC or B10 this year because Nova isn’t as strong and generally speaking the BE will have two top 3/4 seeds (Nova, Providence) and a slew of 5-8 seeds (UConn, MU, X, SH likely lower).

Not sure one good home win versus a 3 seed and a few road wins over 4-6 seeds will be enough to get them in with those computer numbers, and I’m pretty confident it actually wouldn’t.
Now, add a season sweep of MU or UConn (both coming up at home) or a win at Providence and pump that NET into the 55 range and then you’ll likely convince the committee.

Good news is that Coach McDermott recently said in an interview that they are running on fumes. Get after them with high energy and intensity early and often, break their spirit and their lively crowd and bring home a dub

The question is are we a better team and should we beat Creighton?  I emphatically believe we should.  It's time to get our act together Dr. V and play high quality hoops.

[The Equalizer]

Matt Norlander did the research, and in his opinion, Ewing will not get fired. If he steps down it will be his choice.

The 3 who survived were Jerry Wainwright, Trent Johnson, Jim Christian.

Wainwright, DePaul 2009, in his 4th season, and he lasted 1 more season.

Trent Johnson, TCU 2014, in his 2nd season, and he lasted 2 more seasons.

Jim Christian BC 2016, in his 2nd season, and he lasted 5 more seasons.

The 9 who did not survive:

Baylor, 1999 (0-16) / Harry Miller after fifth season
Northwestern, 2000 (0-16) / Kevin O'Neill after third season
Texas A&M, 2004 (0-16) / Melvin Watkins after sixth season
Oregon State, 2008 (0-18) / Jay John fired sixth season
Fordham, 2010 (0-16) / Derrick Whittenburg after seventh season
Pitt, 2018 (0-18) / Kevin Stallings fired second second
Tulane, 2019 (0-18) / Mike Dunleavy fired third season
Vanderbilt, 2019 (0-18) / Bryce Drew fired third season
Iowa State, 2021 (0-18) / Steve Prohm fired sixth season

I know Bryce Drew was shocked that he was fired as several top players Darius Garland etc missed the season due to injury. It was a new AD (that makes a difference too) that came in and fired him without discussion. Drew underestimated the importance of at least winning a few games in conference. (He has since bounced back at Grand Canyon.)

We’ll see about Ewing. I hope he wins a few league games.

I was thinking the three that survived were Wainwright Leitao, and Purnell.

[DoctorV]

The question is are we a better team and should we beat Creighton?  I emphatically believe we should.  It's time to get our act together Dr. V and play high quality hoops.

Yes Muggsy we must get our act together and play some high quality hoops, you aren’t kiddin

[nyg]

Yes Muggsy we must get our act together and play some high quality hoops, you aren’t kiddin

Creighton beat Depaul without Kaluma and Mitchell who are injured.  I believe they played one reserve off the bench. 
If neither of them are available on Sunday and MU loses, it will be a very bad loss. 


BOX Score check:  They played two.  One backup center played five minutes, the other reserve 25 minutes. 

[brewcity77]

The question is are we a better team and should we beat Creighton?  I emphatically believe we should.  It's time to get our act together Dr. V and play high quality hoops.

Better team? Yes, I believe so. Should we beat them? Not sure about that. Creighton has been really good defensively, particularly against pick and roll, which is what we need to get into our offense. They also are excellent at limiting good shots, so when your combine their ability to take away how we get good looks, and their ability to challenge what good looks we get, it's an uphill climb on offense.

The upside is they aren't a great rebounding team and aren't typically going to win the turnover battle, which should play into our favor, but in Milwaukee they were better protecting the ball and hitting the glass against us than they are on average.

This is just a tough matchup and I've got some definite reservations. One more thing to watch, Creighton is willing to play at the other team's pace. I think we want to speed them up and get them playing faster, particularly because neither Nembhard nor Alexander protect the ball well. I would use the Nova strategy and break out the press again. Probably our best shot at stealing the road win.

[BrewCity83]

One more thing to watch, Creighton is willing to play at the other team's pace. I think we want to speed them up and get them playing faster, particularly because neither Nembhard nor Alexander protect the ball well. I would use the Nova strategy and break out the press again. Probably our best shot at stealing the road win.

I agree with this strategy, especially if the Jays are only playing with essentially 6 players.  Wear them down.

[PointWarrior]

At the beginning of the year, the kenpom zealots come out and you might as well not play the season.  Happens every year.

You've got a couple of misconceptions about KenPom in here. First, not once has anyone suggested anything close to the "might as well not play the game" trope that you and Billy like to break out (if nothing else, KenPom can bring opposites together!). The reason people use it is because it is an objective, data informed model that takes the homerism and emotion out of predictions and rankings. It gives us a baseline of what the data "expects" to happen, knowing that 98 times out of 100, it isn't going to be exactly right. No one treats it like gospel, as Rico said, it's one tool in the toolbelt.

The first two months of KenPom are not "close to worthless", they get steadily more accurate as the season goes on. You bring up roster turnover as if that dismisses KenPom's value. KenPom accounts for roster turnover. The results of the previous season that are used aren't based on last year's Marquette team. They are based on the data from how the players performed the previous season wherever they were. So wrapped up in KenPom's initial rankings for Marquette was Lewis' freshman year stats, Tyler's stats at George Mason, O-Max's stats at Clemson, as well as projections for the freshmen based on their rankings. What was not included in his initial rankings for Marquette was anything related to Carton, McEwen, John, etc. While not as accurate as quantifying player value from the current season, there are still ways to project how a player is likely to perform this season given their performance in past seasons. And again, no one treats this like gospel. It's just a neutral and objective way to provide a baseline for what the team is expected to do going into the season. One tool in the tool belt.

[tower912]

At the beginning of the year, the kenpom zealots come out and you might as well not play the season.  Happens every year.

Link?

[brewcity77]

I agree with this strategy, especially if the Jays are only playing with essentially 6 players.  Wear them down.

They are also playing their 4th game in 9 days. Nembhard & Hawkins both played 37+ in each of those first three. Turn up the pressure because we won't play again until Saturday.