COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[MU82]

You’ve officially gone off the deep end.

What did I say there that was crazy or incorrect? Or was it just easier to be dismissive than to face the truth?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Wait!?!?!?  This whole time Canada has been doing what our CDC is now recommending and they don’t have people dropping dead left and right.

Yeah, we wouldn't have all these dead people if we just didn't test as much.

Well, you have convinced me that you are a troll doing a schtick. Bye.

[GooooMarquette]

We have done 79 million tests, they’ve done less then 5.

Calm down.

I am calm. Their positivity rate is also lower than ours. Figure it out.

[shoothoops]

Sturgis biker rally linked to over a hundred COVID-19 cases in at 8 states so far.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/multiple-states-report-covid-19-cases-linked-sturgis/story?id=72621900&id=72621900&__twitter_impression=true

[GooooMarquette]

Sturgis biker rally linked to over a hundred COVID-19 cases in at 8 states so far.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/multiple-states-report-covid-19-cases-linked-sturgis/story?id=72621900&id=72621900&__twitter_impression=true

You have to scroll down a bit, but 46 have been identified so far in Minnesota alone. Two are currently hospitalized, one in intensive care. That only includes people who were actually at the rally, and not people to whom they may have spread the virus when they came home.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/08/29/latest-on-covid19-in-mn

[MU82]

Definitely the most interesting thing I've seen on the interwebs today:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/08/31/herman-cain-tweets-coronavirus-not-that-deadly-despite-having-died-from-it/?fbclid=IwAR3nx-b_gj8vfR51tSJkNmg5rbXBnNrZ45t0kjPxW5A-rmwaAUcn__uVQg8#5a7523ce3c77

Herman Cain continues to speak from beyond the grave through his Twitter account, with a now-deleted tweet claiming that coronavirus is “not as deadly” as “mainstream media” made it out to be, despite Cain dying from COVID-19 weeks after attending a rally for President Trump—and raising questions about Twitter policies for deceased account holders.

Only in 'Murica!

[shoothoops]

Wow.

The Twitter account of recently deceased Herman Cain, who died from complications related to COVID-19, tweeted then later deleted a link to an article suggesting COVID-19 isn't as deadly as first thought. The Forbes headline below says it all:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/08/31/herman-cain-tweets-coronavirus-not-that-deadly-despite-having-died-from-it/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[MarquetteDano]

Wow.

The Twitter account of recently deceased Herman Cain, who died from complications related to COVID-19, tweeted then later deleted a link to an article suggesting COVID-19 isn't as deadly as first thought. The Forbes headline below says it all:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/08/31/herman-cain-tweets-coronavirus-not-that-deadly-despite-having-died-from-it/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

I have a old friend who is basically Alt-Right,  QAnon,  conspiracy theorist sort.  He believes COVID is basically another flu that is being used by various governments to control their people.  I was talking to a common friend that said if he lay dying in the hospital from COVID he would still be denying it.

I have found this in my stock picking.  When I am wrong my absolute refusal to close the position has cost me thousands in unneeded losses.

Humans don't deal very well with being wrong.  They would rather die.

[shoothoops]

I have a old friend who is basically Alt-Right,  QAnon,  consipracy theorist sort.  He believes COVID is basically another flu that is being used by various governments to control their people.  I was talking to a common friend that said if he lay dying in the hospital from COVID he would still be denying it.

I have found this in my stock picking.  When I am wrong my absolute refusal to close the position has cost me thousands in unneeded losses.

Humans don't deal very well with being wrong.  They would rather die.

Well, he did die and apparently dying wasn't enough.

I would agree that for some/many, being correct or not admitting being wrong is a challenge. It again is wrongly perceived as a sign of weakness as opposed to strength. And this goes back to childhood for some people, not learning that it is okay to be wrong, to change your opinion based on more experience, more facts etc ...for others change or admitting being wrong about something is a part of normal daily life.

You can add gamblers who lose and chase instead of having boundaries or limits, walking away or even not engaging in the first place.

Wanting to be strong without understanding what makes someone strong.

Even personal death isn't enough for some to acknowledge being wrong. They need to be wrong from the grave too.

And the whole personal power/$/gain for knowingly having/pushing wrong opinions thing is a whole other factor too.

[MU82]

I have a old friend who is basically Alt-Right,  QAnon,  consipracy theorist sort.  He believes COVID is basically another flu that is being used by various governments to control their people.  I was talking to a common friend that said if he lay dying in the hospital from COVID he would still be denying it.

I have found this in my stock picking.  When I am wrong my absolute refusal to close the position has cost me thousands in unneeded losses.

Humans don't deal very well with being wrong.  They would rather die.

Excellent analogy, Dano. I became a better investor when I learned how to sell my losers and move on. It's not as easy as it sounds! I still hold a couple that I've been waiting on forever, but they are fundamentally sound companies so I'll wait a little longer.

[MU82]

From the NYT, a sobering look at how poorly the U.S. has done containing the virus and its deadly consequences ...



Here’s a jarring thought experiment: If the United States had done merely an average job of fighting the coronavirus — if the U.S. accounted for the same share of virus deaths as it did global population — how many fewer Americans would have died?

The answer: about 145,000.

That’s a large majority of the country’s 183,000 confirmed coronavirus-related deaths.

No other country looks as bad by this measure. The U.S. accounts for 4 percent of the world’s population, and for 22 percent of confirmed Covid-19 deaths. It is one of the many signs that the Trump administration has done a poorer job of controlling the virus than dozens of other governments around the world.

The specific numbers are only estimates, of course. They are based on virus statistics that are unavoidably incomplete. Most scientists believe the real U.S. death toll is higher than the official numbers indicate, and undercounting of deaths may be even greater in some other countries.

After the U.S., Brazil and Mexico have the next largest gaps between population share and official death share. They are also countries with less advanced medical systems, where some experts think the actual death toll is vastly higher than the official one. If that’s right, the true gaps in Brazil and Mexico may be as large as the U.S. gap.

But no other affluent country has nearly so big a gap. Canada and several European countries each account for a greater percentage of deaths than population, yet the differences aren’t nearly as severe as in the U.S.

And some countries, like Australia and South Korea, have a positive version of the gap. Japan is home to 1.7 percent of the global population but less than 0.2 percent of deaths. An additional 12,000 Japanese residents would not be alive if the country had merely an average death rate.


Even if one believes that the likes of Russia, China and Iran are significantly underreporting their deaths, it's still a horrific failure here in the U.S. Not the kind of "winning" anybody wants.

[GooooMarquette]

Yeah, those are pretty sobering numbers, 82.

And while I firmly believe that Russia, China, India et al are dramatically underreporting, I also believe the US' numbers are artificially low. All you need to look at are the positivity rates (15%+ in an appalling number of states) to know that we are missing huge numbers of cases, either through negligence or willful malfeasance. And here's an especially scary number: the positivity rate in SD is currently at 23%. Just think of all the places those Sturgis geniuses are spreading the virus.

Even here in MN where we have a relatively progressive governor and populace, positivity rates have gradually increased from under 5% a few weeks ago to nearly 10% now. A failure in nearly all states, red and blue alike. The only notable exceptions are in the NY/NJ/CT region and upper New England, where rates are under 2%.

https://www.covidexitstrategy.org

[MU82]

The only notable exceptions are in the NY/NJ/CT region and upper New England, where rates are under 2%.

Of course, in the NY/NJ/CT region, they killed off their old-timers early in the game.

Seriously, these are sad times. Incredible that some folks - including our alleged national leader - think it's just swell to hold super-spreader events. Herman Cain and others like him died for absolutely nothing.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I saw Connecticut is at like .75%.

Danbury, CT shot up to 7% recently and they contract traced a few locations in town that seem to be the culprits.  The Republican mayor and our Democrat Governor were in lockstep in shutting some things down and re-implementing some restrictions in the Danbury area only.

   

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I saw Connecticut is at like .75%.

Danbury, CT shot up to 7% recently and they contract traced a few locations in town that seem to be the culprits.  The Republican mayor and our Democrat Governor were in lockstep in shutting some things down and re-implementing some restrictions in the Danbury area only.

I hope the trend continues.  We had upward pressure due to UCONN/YALE re-entry plus Danbury like you said.  Cases were up two weeks straight, but went back down again Monday (which represented a 3-day period, so a good sign).

[Jockey]

I saw Connecticut is at like .75%.

Danbury, CT shot up to 7% recently and they contract traced a few locations in town that seem to be the culprits.  The Republican mayor and our Democrat Governor were in lockstep in shutting some things down and re-implementing some restrictions in the Danbury area only.

   

I don't know if you are from Danbury, but if so, check out the John Oliver bit from Sunday.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I don't know if you are from Danbury, but if so, check out the John Oliver bit from Sunday.

That's been statewide news. 
John Oliver will make a sizeable donation to local charities if they name the sewage treatment plant after him after the mayor said it tongue-in-cheek.

[Jockey]

I hope the trend continues.  We had upward pressure due to UCONN/YALE re-entry plus Danbury like you said.  Cases were up two weeks straight, but went back down again Monday (which represented a 3-day period, so a good sign).

A question for you, Frenn's.

Do you think the daily data on cases is relevant any more? Is it giving us a true picture since fewer people are being tested?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

A question for you, Frenn's.

Do you think the daily data on cases is relevant any more? Is it giving us a true picture since fewer people are being tested?

We have more tests in CT.  So it’s relevant for our state. 

Edit: I should add that my statement is true overall.  But the weekend comps I referenced look to have testing down week to week.  So could be a bad conclusion as it could be less tests run at a still low positivity rate.  But by in large we are still watching cases, hospitalizations, positivity rate and deaths daily.

[Jockey]

We have more tests in CT.  So it’s relevant for our state. 

Edit: I should add that my statement is true overall.  But the weekend comps I referenced look to have testing down week to week.  So could be a bad conclusion as it could be less tests run at a still low positivity rate.  But by in large we are still watching cases, hospitalizations, positivity rate and deaths daily.

The reason I asked is because there is such a wide variation of cases in many places. Some can be explained by the day of the week, but I have been watching hospitalizations, positivity rates, and deaths rather than zeroing in on cases.

[Lennys Tap]

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

If already posted, apologies. Thought this was an interesting read.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

If already posted, apologies. Thought this was an interesting read.

I haven’t seen this yet.  Interesting if they can start testing some of this.

[tower912]

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

If already posted, apologies. Thought this was an interesting read.

I read that earlier today.    Interesting hypothesis.     Keep sciencing.   Interesting that there is already a list of medicines that treat the Bradykinin.   

[rocky_warrior]

Already some interesting results, but obviously a lot more data needed:

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88076

[GooooMarquette]

The reason I asked is because there is such a wide variation of cases in many places. Some can be explained by the day of the week, but I have been watching hospitalizations, positivity rates, and deaths rather than zeroing in on cases.

I have been focusing on a combination of new cases and positivity rate. To me, that tells the story of the spread.

Hospitalizations and deaths are of course very relevant too, but they trail new cases by a few weeks.