COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[MU82]

nm

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Take this stuff elsewhere.

[injuryBug]

So how much testing will take place on college campus' in the 1st semester.  From what i am reading about the cases at schools most are asymptomatic.  So that is good but also bad obviously with the spread that people may not know.
If you can keep the kids bottled up on campus and test them before they go home.

Cases will happen cannot shut down entire campus with a few cases.
By the way MLB has no clue what they are doing, nothing in place for when a few are positive

[Hards Alumni]

Take this stuff elsewhere.

For real.

[MU82]

Done. And done.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Dr Tom Frieden’s weekly data analysis.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrTomFrieden/status/1274129960710610945

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Yeah its getting pretty obvious that some places "opened" way too soon and without adeequate resources in place.  But its also pretty obvious that a good portion of the country doesn't really care.

[tower912]

This isn't over.  It isn't close to over.  The virus is relentless.   The best things you can do for yourself and your family are wear masks, wash your hands, don't participate in large gatherings, particularly indoors.   Accept you will be doing these things for several months.

[Pakuni]

Study says our government response (or lack thereof) cost tens of thousands of lives.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/19/faster-response-prevented-most-us-covid-19-deaths/

[mu03eng]

Yeah its getting pretty obvious that some places "opened" way too soon and without adeequate resources in place.  But its also pretty obvious that a good portion of the country doesn't really care.

Given all the things that have gone on since reopening and how far back a lot of the reopenings were, I don't think we can say this is a reopening problem. I'd say this is an overconfidence problem, partly due to the constant "we are all gonna die" narrative which seemed to never manifest. Well its manifesting now and some places are paying the consequences of their hubris

[HouWarrior]

I apologize in advance if this should be in another thread.

In the last few weeks, almost daily I see ESPN site noting a college football program with double digit COVID positives among the players. How can they expect to play this contact sport in the fall/cool weather without infecting each other?

The NFL, NBA and MLB (big maybe) aspire to terms of reopening. In reading those terms they dont have a re-shutdown contingency when players are infected . When just one (Rudy Gobert) caught it so did at least one of his teammates. I cant imagine any agent who will let his player continue on after infection hits a team.

My pessimistic gut feeling is creeping in that for all the talk/plans and optimism of re- starting up the big time pro and collegiate team sports...when the teams actually physically convene and interact;  the virus will hit and these restarts will have to re-shutdown. We may not have major team sports in 2020.

Your thoughts?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Given all the things that have gone on since reopening and how far back a lot of the reopenings were, I don't think we can say this is a reopening problem. I'd say this is an overconfidence problem, partly due to the constant "we are all gonna die" narrative which seemed to never manifest. Well its manifesting now and some places are paying the consequences of their hubris

I agree with this.  Open/closed was just to get people’s attention.  With inconsistent messaging, lack of trust in our govt and odd politically driven battles (masks/hydroxy) we have lost attention in many places. 

I think the messaging of ‘this is behind us or not serious’ is far more damaging than being able to go to TJ Maxx.

Eng and I know you have been critical of the hyperbolic news.  But in reality this is the most Suddenly deadly thing that has struck the country in my lifetime.  100k in three months and we still have people thinking it’s the flu. 

Clearly it’s not Ebola or contagion either and it may not be the scourge that aids was globally over decades...but the dismissal is odd

[Pakuni]

Given all the things that have gone on since reopening and how far back a lot of the reopenings were, I don't think we can say this is a reopening problem. I'd say this is an overconfidence problem, partly due to the constant "we are all gonna die" narrative which seemed to never manifest. Well its manifesting now and some places are paying the consequences of their hubris

eng ... I greatly appreciate and respect your opinions here, so this may seem harsher than I intend it and I apologize in advance if I'm misunderstanding you.
But this reads to me as complete spin to absolve those who played down this threat in the early weeks.
What you seem to be saying is that blame for what we're seeing today falls, at least in part, on those who correctly warned us that this is what would happen if people didn't heed the warnings (which, by the way, were never "we're all going to die," though I understand you need such hyperbole to make your case).
Seems the ultimate damned if you do, damned if you don't. Don't warn people? It's your fault they're sick. Do warn people? It's your fault they're sick.

[injuryBug]

I apologize in advance if this should be in another thread.

In the last few weeks, almost daily I see ESPN site noting a college football program with double digit COVID positives among the players. How can they expect to play this contact sport in the fall/cool weather without infecting each other?

The NFL, NBA and MLB (big maybe) aspire to terms of reopening. In reading those terms they dont have a re-shutdown contingency when players are infected . When just one (Rudy Gobert) caught it so did at least one of his teammates. I cant imagine any agent who will let his player continue on after infection hits a team.

My pessimistic gut feeling is creeping in that for all the talk/plans and optimism of re- starting up the big time pro and collegiate team sports...when the teams actually physically convene and interact;  the virus will hit and these restarts will have to re-shutdown. We may not have major team sports in 2020.

Your thoughts?

I am still optimistic but it is really up to the players and what they do in their spare time.  How can european soccer go on with no real issues? Korean baseball?  None of those leagues are in a bubble.

I think we have learned trips to the grocery store or to pick up medications are safe at this point.  The virus is transmitted by long exposure in tight quarters to those infected.  That is why we have seen the spike in cases ages 20-29 they are going to bars or parties.
Stay away from the large indoor gatherings and we will be in much better shape.  I still think we can have limited fans outdoor and indoor.  masks required and social distancing practiced

[JWags85]

eng ... I greatly appreciate and respect your opinions here, so this may seem harsher than I intend it and I apologize in advance if I'm misunderstanding you.
But this reads to me as complete spin to absolve those who played down this threat in the early weeks.
What you seem to be saying is that blame for what we're seeing today falls, at least in part, on those who correctly warned us that this is what would happen if people didn't heed the warnings (which, by the way, were never "we're all going to die," though I understand you need such hyperbole to make your case).
Seems the ultimate damned if you do, damned if you don't. Don't warn people? It's your fault they're sick. Do warn people? It's your fault they're sick.

I can’t speak for Eng but I share some of his sentiments.

And I don’t think it’s absolution. I’m sure he’s not speaking to people calling it a hoax or saying death counts would be lower than a flu season. But rather to the alternative to those championing most of the fearful projections.


Maybe they didn’t say “we are all gonna die” but there were people warning against people dropping dead on flights, bodies in the streets, broad deaths across all age groups, lockdowns into 2021, etc... That level of dire projections haven’t come true

Now you have places meeting metrics, beginning reponening, and people immediately began cautioning on the second wave how bad this was still gonna be, etc and I think people got fed up and over confident, which is what he’s speaking to.  And I’m not talking AZ or FL, I’m talking to the reaction of people in places like WI, OH, IL that are managing well. That sort of constant paranoia generation in the face of improving situations doesn’t breed vigilance, it breeds exhaustion and defiance.

I do think the irony here is the states I mentioned flattened the curve whereas the recent hotspots never did as they “started” their curves latter and opened prematurely. But here we are

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I can’t speak for Eng but I share some of his sentiments.

And I don’t think it’s absolution. I’m sure he’s not speaking to people calling it a hoax or saying death counts would be lower than a flu season. But rather to the alternative to those championing most of the fearful projections.


Maybe they didn’t say “we are all gonna die” but there were people warning against people dropping dead on flights, bodies in the streets, broad deaths across all age groups, lockdowns into 2021, etc... That level of dire projections haven’t come true

Now you have places meeting metrics, beginning reponening, and people immediately began cautioning on the second wave how bad this was still gonna be, etc and I think people got fed up and over confident, which is what he’s speaking to.  And I’m not talking AZ or FL, I’m talking to the reaction of people in places like WI, OH, IL that are managing well. That sort of constant paranoia generation in the face of improving situations doesn’t breed vigilance, it breeds exhaustion and defiance.

I do think the irony here is the states I mentioned flattened the curve whereas the recent hotspots never did as they “started” their curves latter and opened prematurely. But here we are

I think the exhaustion and defiance was bred in part by inconsistent messaging at the top. And I’m being generous by calling it “inconsistent.”

[JWags85]

I think the exhaustion and defiance was bred in part by inconsistent messaging at the top. And I’m being generous by calling it “inconsistent.”

I don’t disagree. I think inconsistent messaging all over the place has been an issue. And no this isn’t whataboutism or very fine people on both sides, it’s people predicting this to be the Black Plague and others calling it a mild flu or a hoax and much of the common sense, moderate approach that is most apt and palatable is discarded in favor of the politicization of this whole situation that has emerged. It’s beyond frustrating.

[injuryBug]

Found this string of tweets to be useful to see where we have come since the end of April.
large decrease in deaths and cases per day even with the large increase in tests per day.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1274144864196653057

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I don’t disagree. I think inconsistent messaging all over the place has been an issue. And no this isn’t whataboutism or very fine people on both sides, it’s people predicting this to be the Black Plague and others calling it a mild flu or a hoax and much of the common sense, moderate approach that is most apt and palatable is discarded in favor of the politicization of this whole situation that has emerged. It’s beyond frustrating.

Yeah I don’t think so. I think if the President would have stuck to messaging and actually lead versus bitching about the economy and sending out his Liberate posts, that the opening would have been handled better.

Very few (if any) compared this to the Black Death. And no one I can recall in a position of authority.

[MU82]

Yeah I don’t think so. I think if the President would have stuck to messaging and actually lead versus bitching about the economy and sending out his Liberate posts, that the opening would have been handled better.

Very few (if any) compared this to the Black Death. And no one I can recall in a position of authority.

Yes, despite the slowness in realizing how bad this pandemic is (even though he himself claimed to have known it was a pandemic before anybody else did, as amazing a lie as he's ever told if you think about it), we still could be in a lot better shape had he not laid out a careful plan for re-opening on a Thursday and then, 15 hours later, started telling people in several states that didn't meet his own guidelines/benchmarks that they should protest not being re-opened.

Any chance he had of not being President Pandemic ended that Friday.

I apologize in advance if this should be in another thread.

In the last few weeks, almost daily I see ESPN site noting a college football program with double digit COVID positives among the players. How can they expect to play this contact sport in the fall/cool weather without infecting each other?

The NFL, NBA and MLB (big maybe) aspire to terms of reopening. In reading those terms they dont have a re-shutdown contingency when players are infected . When just one (Rudy Gobert) caught it so did at least one of his teammates. I cant imagine any agent who will let his player continue on after infection hits a team.

My pessimistic gut feeling is creeping in that for all the talk/plans and optimism of re- starting up the big time pro and collegiate team sports...when the teams actually physically convene and interact;  the virus will hit and these restarts will have to re-shutdown. We may not have major team sports in 2020.

Your thoughts?

I haven't followed baseball's plans closely enough because all the bickering between the players and owners have sucked all the air out of that room, and I don't think the NFL has laid out a firm plan. But I believe that both the NBA commissioner and the union leaders have said they totally understand that there almost surely will be some coronavirus cases that pop up, but that the presence of those cases alone will not shut down the league once things get started.

I welcome somebody to correct me if I'm wrong about that, or to expound on that point.

[forgetful]

Given all the things that have gone on since reopening and how far back a lot of the reopenings were, I don't think we can say this is a reopening problem. I'd say this is an overconfidence problem, partly due to the constant "we are all gonna die" narrative which seemed to never manifest. Well its manifesting now and some places are paying the consequences of their hubris

Honestly, about 3-weeks to a month after major reopening is when I would predict a noticeable trend in surge of cases. We are essentially a month after most things opened in places like Texas and Florida and we are seeing the sustained increases.

Texas allowed restaurants, barber shops, etc. to open on May 18th. You can see a noticeable change in inflection point in case curves about 1-week later that only grew. 100% consistent with opening too soon without plans in place.

https://www.keranews.org/post/did-texas-reopen-too-soon

Florida went to phase 2 of the reopening the same day. They see a noticeable change in inflection point about a week and a half later.

Both are consistent with what you would expect to observe in regard to timelines for opening too soon.

Importantly, both states were very poor at testing when they reopened, and occur in areas where buy-in for social distancing and preventive measures are low. I'm not saying opening was necessarily bad, that is a more complicated argument, but the trends are exactly what you would expect in terms of timelines for reopening too soon.

[mu03eng]

eng ... I greatly appreciate and respect your opinions here, so this may seem harsher than I intend it and I apologize in advance if I'm misunderstanding you.
But this reads to me as complete spin to absolve those who played down this threat in the early weeks.
What you seem to be saying is that blame for what we're seeing today falls, at least in part, on those who correctly warned us that this is what would happen if people didn't heed the warnings (which, by the way, were never "we're all going to die," though I understand you need such hyperbole to make your case).
Seems the ultimate damned if you do, damned if you don't. Don't warn people? It's your fault they're sick. Do warn people? It's your fault they're sick.

First, no offense taken, I like to have my thoughts and biases interrogated to make sure they make sense.

Second, I think your interpretation is off based on my desire to communicate something quickly while typing on my phone.

My point is really made in two parts, 1 is about how individuals are generally experiencing Covid and 2 is how the public discourse has been inconsistent at best which leads people to their own interpretations.

1. Yes 120,000 have died and 10x that have been sickened but in the grand scheme of things the number of 336 million citizens that has DIRECTLY experienced Covid is relatively low. Let's take deaths, NY and NJ experienced the bulk of the deaths(45,000) so if you spread the remaining deaths across the 48 states (an average is not great here, should be ratio'd by population but lazy + time.....) you get roughly 1,600 deaths per state, tragic no doubt, but how many citizens are "directly" experiencing that pain? Conversely, how many of the same citizens are experiencing job loss, businesses closing, being shut in, etc? In other words, significantly more people are directly experiencing the effects of closing than Covid. As humans, we're conditioned to react to the direct stimuli much more than the indirect. Not saying the reductive nature of people's reaction to Covid is right, simply that I understand where it comes from.

2. The narrative across the board has been very inconsistent (at all levels) as to the risk and concern around Covid spread. I'll use Wisconsin as an example:
-general concern but not a big deal around Covid
-Rudy Gobert tests positive, leagues shut down, people get serious then lock down happens
-people take it serious for several weeks but during that time there is no discussion of metrics, it's we need to time with vague handwaving
-in person elections are declared very dangerous and indicative of a massive spreading event (minimal to no spread is measured)
-protests start to form around lock downs and masks, those protests are messaged as dangerous spreading event( again limited spread)
-lock down is cancelled, opening up narrative begins (some but not unreasonable spread occurs)
-George Floyd protests happen for 3 weeks and not only is spreading risk minimized, some, including health care workers, message that systemic racism is a bigger health concern than Covid.
-Protests fade into the background, and now that predominantly 4 states are seeing a significant increase in infection (while death rates fall) the reopening is dangerous narrative resurfaces and seems to ignore all protest infection vector discussion
*heavily summarized and generalized for some sort of brevity. Also not an endorsement of the positions simply a reflection of how these events can be viewed.

When you combine these things, I get where people get really cavalier with this. Not saying it's right, but I totally get how we got here and I think the intellectual crowd generally assumes they are right and looks on those who disagree as somehow broken without understanding the context of the mind set.

Lastly, 100% Trump bears a significant fault in the fracturing of the country(its kind of his move). I'd like to see us rise above but doesn't seem like we can, bad leadership on all sides if you are asking me.

[pbiflyer]

Florida graph. Someone asked why soccer leagues have reopened without issue? It is simple, those countries have not only flattened the curve, but brought it down to levels where contact tracing is possible, then the actually staffed their HC system with people to do the tracing.
This graph shows the infection rate for a state that will soon host the NBA, MLB, and the RNC convention. What could possibly go wrong?

[GooooMarquette]

Honestly, about 3-weeks to a month after major reopening is when I would predict a noticeable trend in surge of cases. We are essentially a month after most things opened in places like Texas and Florida and we are seeing the sustained increases.

Texas allowed restaurants, barber shops, etc. to open on May 18th. You can see a noticeable change in inflection point in case curves about 1-week later that only grew. 100% consistent with opening too soon without plans in place.

https://www.keranews.org/post/did-texas-reopen-too-soon

Florida went to phase 2 of the reopening the same day. They see a noticeable change in inflection point about a week and a half later.

Both are consistent with what you would expect to observe in regard to timelines for opening too soon.

Importantly, both states were very poor at testing when they reopened, and occur in areas where buy-in for social distancing and preventive measures are low. I'm not saying opening was necessarily bad, that is a more complicated argument, but the trends are exactly what you would expect in terms of timelines for reopening too soon.

Agreed. The timing is essentially perfect to correlate reopening to the resurgence in states where cases are increasing.

As to the disparity between places like TX, AZ and FL where cases are increasing vs the midwest and northeast where cases are decreasing, I think much of that can be attributed to the seriousness with which people in those parts of the country take social distancing, masks and such. Here in MN, it has been several weeks since I last saw a person in a grocery store without a mask. And cases in MN are declining steadily. Video I have seen from TX, FL and such seems to show a very different story.

[shoothoops]

Tulsa, and so it begins:

https://apnews.com/23796a826ba86619527363b92ed49a33?utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter