COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

It does get tiresome, but it is the reality.

118,000+ dead. More dying every day. New hot spots popping up. No Federal leadership whatsoever. If we weren't so used to this garbage, the outcry would be deafening.

Maybe if you brought up policy instead of saying the same thing about a person again and again it wouldn’t be as tiresome.

[Jockey]

Maybe if you brought up policy instead of saying the same thing about a person again and again it wouldn’t be as tiresome.

I would love to talk policy. You tell me what our national policy is and I will be happy to discuss it.

Except we have none.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I would love to talk policy. You tell me what our national policy is and I will be happy to discuss it.

Except we have none.

We have a policy and you can choose to debate it.  If you want to make flip comments about a person over and over, I would humbly suggest this isnt the place for it. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I would love to talk policy. You tell me what our national policy is and I will be happy to discuss it.

Except we have none.

Then perhaps you should retire yourself from this topic if you can’t say anything but the same political statements you’ve been making for weeks now.

We all know the problem. We all know where you stand. Nothing you say at this point breaks new ground.

[Jockey]

Then perhaps you should retire yourself from this topic if you can’t say anything but the same political statements you’ve been making for weeks now.

We all know the problem. We all know where you stand. Nothing you say at this point breaks new ground.

So you guys can't give me a policy?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

So you guys can't give me a policy?

Health wise
- States are in charge
- Get a vaccine quick as that is the only solution
- Epidemic is being overblown


Economic wise
- make a temporary as possible
- give money to people in phase one
- push fed to lend
- keep businesses viable and hope for quick SnapBack

Political
- hope for the summer lull
- get people to vote
- hope the vaccine comes before second wave or election

[shoothoops]

......

[pbiflyer]

Health wise
- States are in charge
- Get a vaccine quick as that is the only solution
- Epidemic is being overblown


Economic wise
- make a temporary as possible
- give money to people in phase one
- push fed to lend
- keep businesses viable and hope for quick SnapBack

Political
- hope for the summer lull
- get people to vote
- hope the vaccine comes before second wave or election

That’s a depressing plan if that is the best they can come up with.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

That’s a depressing plan if that is the best they can come up with.

Pence to Gov’s from NY Times

Pence urged governors to echo a misleading claim about infection spikes.
Vice President Mike Pence encouraged governors on Monday to adopt the administration’s claim that increased testing helps account for the new coronavirus outbreak reports, even though evidence has shown that the explanation is misleading.

On a call with the governors, audio of which was obtained by The New York Times, Mr. Pence urged them “to continue to explain to your citizens the magnitude of the increase in testing” in addressing the new outbreaks.

And he asked them to “encourage people with the news that we’re safely reopening the country.”

In fact, seven-day averages in several states with outbreaks have increased since May 31, and in at least 14 states, the positive case rate is increasing faster than the increase in the average number of tests, according to an analysis of data collected by The New York Times.

The vice president played down the overall size of the outbreaks, stressing that some states were seeing what he called “intermittent” spikes of the virus.

[mu03eng]

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6924e2.htm?s_cid=mm6924e2_w

Shelter the aged and at risk and continue the responsible and measured opening of the economy.

[shoothoops]

Wear a mask:

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1272597258404495360?s=19

[JWags85]

......

I know they are trying to paint the US in a negative light compared to the other 3, but Italy and Spain both still have COVID deaths per million at a rate 60-65% higher than the US.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6924e2.htm?s_cid=mm6924e2_w

Shelter the aged and at risk and continue the responsible and measured opening of the economy.

Absolutely. And stop the unnecessary focus on “new cases” and focus on hospitalizations/deaths in the absolute, not misrepresentative metrics like “150% increase in hospitalizations” when an area goes from 2 to 5 hospitalizations

[forgetful]

I know they are trying to paint the US in a negative light compared to the other 3, but Italy and Spain both still have COVID deaths per million at a rate 60-65% higher than the US.

 
Absolutely. And stop the unnecessary focus on “new cases” and focus on hospitalizations/deaths in the absolute, not misrepresentative metrics like “150% increase in hospitalizations” when an area goes from 2 to 5 hospitalizations

States that opened early are starting to see record high rates of hospitalizations. Others have simply stayed at the peak (flat). That is decidedly different than Italy and Spain.

Also, Italy and Spain have substantially older populations. Despite that, unless something changes, we will pass everyone (well maybe not Belgium) in deaths per capita. That is despite the evidence that we are undercounting considerably, as we have substantial excess deaths that cannot be accounted for by the reported CoVID deaths alone.

[GooooMarquette]

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6924e2.htm?s_cid=mm6924e2_w

Shelter the aged and at risk and continue the responsible and measured opening of the economy.

The aged and “at risk”? Per CDC, the “at risk” group is awfully large.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-at-higher-risk.html

People of all ages with underlying medical conditions, particularly if not well controlled, including:

People with chronic lung disease or moderate to severe asthma

People who have serious heart conditions

People who are immunocompromised
Many conditions can cause a person to be immunocompromised, including cancer treatment, smoking, bone marrow or organ transplantation, immune deficiencies, poorly controlled HIV or AIDS, and prolonged use of corticosteroids and other immune weakening medications

People with severe obesity (body mass index [BMI] of 40 or higher)

People with diabetes

People with chronic kidney disease undergoing dialysis

People with liver disease


————————-

Pretty slim pickings after that. Oh, and research is suggesting that having type A blood might put you at higher risk. That is about a third of the population.

[mu03eng]

Pretty slim pickings after that. Oh, and research is suggesting that having type A blood might put you at higher risk. That is about a third of the population.

Yeah, I'm not going to believe that until I see a lot more study/analysis. The fact that a third of the population has type A blood means it could be a simple statistical variance of A types getting/having worse outcomes that has no correlation.

And do you really want to plan assuming that A types are going to die if they get it, because if you do then you should be advocating for lockdown until vaccine.

[mu03eng]

I think the fact that we are attacking this state by state and region by region is a fascinating real time study of the disease. Somebody is going to have explain why states that had a controlled open are potentially fairing worse than a state like Wisconsin is doing ok. We're going to have to figure out whether opening, protests, other factors, or some combination of these things is leading to the increase in cases. As an example, Texas started opening up at the beginning of May and they are seeing an increase now.....even if you open the variance to its widest point (two weeks to symptoms and two weeks to hospitalization for everyone) you'd be hard pressed to see this as a result of opening. It is a very curious thing and I really wish we weren't politicizing the data one way or the other. Need to create hypothesis and test them against the data and that's the conclusion.

[tower912]

Michigan kicking butt right now.   

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I think the fact that we are attacking this state by state and region by region is a fascinating real time study of the disease. Somebody is going to have explain why states that had a controlled open are potentially fairing worse than a state like Wisconsin is doing ok. We're going to have to figure out whether opening, protests, other factors, or some combination of these things is leading to the increase in cases. As an example, Texas started opening up at the beginning of May and they are seeing an increase now.....even if you open the variance to its widest point (two weeks to symptoms and two weeks to hospitalization for everyone) you'd be hard pressed to see this as a result of opening. It is a very curious thing and I really wish we weren't politicizing the data one way or the other. Need to create hypothesis and test them against the data and that's the conclusion.

I heard an interesting theory yesterday.  Southern states are heading inside and spending more time in A/C and windows closed.  Northern states spending more time outside.  Could also be a reason why the reverse was true early.

I personally wouldnt over-attribute the day the re-opening starts.  The fact that this needs people to people contact (which increases daily when shut-downs end) and clearly needs a lot of spread before it becomes a problem for hospitals, means it likely takes a month plus of unknown spread before you see a 'hot spot'.

[GooooMarquette]

Yeah, I'm not going to believe that until I see a lot more study/analysis. The fact that a third of the population has type A blood means it could be a simple statistical variance of A types getting/having worse outcomes that has no correlation.

And do you really want to plan assuming that A types are going to die if they get it, because if you do then you should be advocating for lockdown until vaccine.

I agree that we need to see more before we definitively conclude anything about blood types. My point is just that distinguishing high-risk from low-risk is not nearly as easy as you seem to think.

As to blood types FWIW, there have been several independent studies that all seem to be coming to the same conclusion. The following article lists a handful (including one that was peer-reviewed) that came to the same result:

https://cen.acs.org/biological-chemistry/infectious-disease/Genetic-study-suggests-peoples-blood/98/i23

Maybe it turns into nothing, but it is at least worth watching.

[shoothoops]

COVID-19 test costs...bringing the video receipts:

https://twitter.com/RepKatiePorter/status/1272624118920290304?s=19

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I heard an interesting theory yesterday.  Southern states are heading inside and spending more time in A/C and windows closed.  Northern states spending more time outside.  Could also be a reason why the reverse was true early.

I personally wouldnt over-attribute the day the re-opening starts.  The fact that this needs people to people contact (which increases daily when shut-downs end) and clearly needs a lot of spread before it becomes a problem for hospitals, means it likely takes a month plus of unknown spread before you see a 'hot spot'.

I was thinking similar.  We'll just have to wait a few weeks after super summer heat finally shows up here.

[pbiflyer]

I was thinking similar.  We'll just have to wait a few weeks after super summer heat finally shows up here.

I doubt this is the case. Wouldn't Florida have seasonal flu spikes in the summer? We don't.

[Warriors4ever]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300035945/coronavirus-two-women-who-travelled-to-nz-from-the-uk-test-positive-for-covid19

Two New Zealand citizens who returned from the UK and were released early from manadatory quarantine to attend their mother’s funeral tested positive for Covid. One had mild symptoms but attributed  them to a pre-existing condition and one was asymptomatic. Residents are wondering why they weren’t tested before being released from quarantine.

[mu03eng]

I agree that we need to see more before we definitively conclude anything about blood types. My point is just that distinguishing high-risk from low-risk is not nearly as easy as you seem to think.

As to blood types FWIW, there have been several independent studies that all seem to be coming to the same conclusion. The following article lists a handful (including one that was peer-reviewed) that came to the same result:

https://cen.acs.org/biological-chemistry/infectious-disease/Genetic-study-suggests-peoples-blood/98/i23

Maybe it turns into nothing, but it is at least worth watching.

Identifying the risk factors is actually really straight forward as you've largely identified them. As you have more risk factors and modified by your behavior that gives you an idea of what your risk is for A) contracting it and B) the likely impact if you do contract it. We have enough data to model that and basically do a risk calculator for people. I'd be very interested in a Google project or WebMD or something along those lines to allow me to go determine my risk model.

As to the blood type, if you read the article you linked and the supporting articles the blood type is very likely a correlation but not causation.

[forgetful]

I heard an interesting theory yesterday.  Southern states are heading inside and spending more time in A/C and windows closed.  Northern states spending more time outside.  Could also be a reason why the reverse was true early.

I personally wouldnt over-attribute the day the re-opening starts.  The fact that this needs people to people contact (which increases daily when shut-downs end) and clearly needs a lot of spread before it becomes a problem for hospitals, means it likely takes a month plus of unknown spread before you see a 'hot spot'.

I think people are working hard to find reasons beyond the obvious. Southern states have less buy in on things like wearing masks. The result, more cases.

I think that is reason number 1, particularly as it relates to young people who are a vector of spread.