COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Finding first deaths earlier than previously thought.  Also in Santa Clara.  The area that had the anti-body study done.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/22/death-coronavirus-first-california/

This is really interesting.  If you want to look at this positively, it's almost if Santa Clara unwittingly served as a petri dish for developing herd immunity - and it may have by and large worked.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Unusual blood clotting issues? If this is the case, wouldn't it have presented and been noticed by doctors before this? We had people dying from this since at least January globally, doesn't it seem that if there were an unusually high incidence we would have heard of it earlier?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/doctors-try-to-untangle-why-theyre-seeing-unprecedented-blood-clotting-among-covid-19-patients/ar-BB130owV?ocid=spartandhp

[Coleman]

I can't read the article because it's behind a paywall.

Does the head of CDC apologize for horribly botching their initial attempts to make test kits, and acknowledge that this wouldn't be nearly as bad if they had gotten their sh!t together sooner?

Edit: Is WaPo the only major newspaper that still has its COVID stories behind a paywall? Both NYT and WSJ have been allowing access for quite a while.

If you have Amazon Prime you can subscribe to WaPo online for like $4 a month. It is worth it.

[GooooMarquette]

Unusual blood clotting issues? If this is the case, wouldn't it have presented and been noticed by doctors before this? We had people dying from this since at least January globally, doesn't it seem that if there were an unusually high incidence we would have heard of it earlier?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/doctors-try-to-untangle-why-theyre-seeing-unprecedented-blood-clotting-among-covid-19-patients/ar-BB130owV?ocid=spartandhp

From my reading of the article, it’s still just a hunch (like the “don’t use ibuprofen” thing earlier) and has yet to be studied. Also, some think it happens (if at all) in only a subset (yet to be defined) of COVID patients. A couple of quotes from the article that led me to this:

"Even before Covid, we're on high alert for suspicion of clots in the ICU because they're at high risk," Gong said.

Even so, doctors have a hunch that Covid patients might be clotting even more than other ICU patients.

And this:

"My gut tells me there are probably a subset of Covid patients who have really abnormal clotting behavior, that this is happening more frequently than we would expect it to," said Hibbert, an instructor at Harvard Medical School.

She quickly added, though, that doctors' gut feelings are "notoriously misleading" and that studies need to be done to get to the bottom of exactly how common clotting is among coronavirus patients.

Anyhow, good to know docs are looking into this. I suspect that, even though we haven’t heard about it, ICU docs treating COVID patients are well aware of this hunch.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

This is a pretty interesting read at how contagious this is and hopefully that it is much more widespread than we think.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/coronavirus-sequencing.html

[GooooMarquette]

If you have Amazon Prime you can subscribe to WaPo online for like $4 a month. It is worth it.

Good to know, because that is a great deal. Unfortunately, we gave up our Prime subscription a while ago because we just weren’t using it enough. If we go back, I will definitely take advantage of that deal.

[GooooMarquette]

This is a pretty interesting read at how contagious this is and hopefully that it is much more widespread than we think.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/coronavirus-sequencing.html

That would be fantastic news because it could mean we are much closer to herd immunity than we thought. Fingers crossed.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

From my reading of the article, it’s still just a hunch (like the “don’t use ibuprofen” thing earlier) and has yet to be studied. Also, some think it happens (if at all) in only a subset (yet to be defined) of COVID patients. A couple of quotes from the article that led me to this:

"Even before Covid, we're on high alert for suspicion of clots in the ICU because they're at high risk," Gong said.

Even so, doctors have a hunch that Covid patients might be clotting even more than other ICU patients.

And this:

"My gut tells me there are probably a subset of Covid patients who have really abnormal clotting behavior, that this is happening more frequently than we would expect it to," said Hibbert, an instructor at Harvard Medical School.

She quickly added, though, that doctors' gut feelings are "notoriously misleading" and that studies need to be done to get to the bottom of exactly how common clotting is among coronavirus patients.

Anyhow, good to know docs are looking into this. I suspect that, even though we haven’t heard about it, ICU docs treating COVID patients are well aware of this hunch.

Agree with all this, that is why I was skeptical in reading it.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

So yeah, about herd immunity...the populace doesn't develop herd immunity to more common coronaviruses, what is leading us to believe that we will for COVID-19?

[Pakuni]

So yeah, about herd immunity...the populace doesn't develop herd immunity to more common coronaviruses, what is leading us to believe that we will for COVID-19?

Is this accurate? Studies have shown at least short-term immunity to SARS and MERS once a person has been through an infection. One would hope something similar would at least provide a little more breathing room to develop and effective vaccine.

I don't think we can or should assume anything at this point, either way. I've always believed the key while awaiting a vaccine wouldn't be herd immunity, but development of an effective therapeutic that could lessen/minimize the symptoms. People will still get sick, and some still will die, but that would make everything far more manageable and allow for a return to something closer to normal life.

[GooooMarquette]

So yeah, about herd immunity...the populace doesn't develop herd immunity to more common coronaviruses, what is leading us to believe that we will for COVID-19?

I suspect it’s because most coronaviruses mutate before we can get the critical mass for herd immunity. This virus (at least the antigenic part) seems not to do that. Again - speculation based on what I’ve heard so far....

[forgetful]

I suspect it’s because most coronaviruses mutate before we can get the critical mass for herd immunity. This virus (at least the antigenic part) seems not to do that. Again - speculation based on what I’ve heard so far....

The other coronaviruses do not mutate any more rapidly that SARS-CoV2. It is simply a matter of any immunity not lasting a particularly long time, and the virus becoming endemic in a population.

It appears we are going to have this become endemic.

What we can hope for, and I think will be the case, is that subsequent rounds of infection have lower mortality due to a slightly elevated immune response. That means mortality can be significantly lowered, but infection rates remaining high. The good news is that this doesn't affect children as severely, so we do not have to worry about long-term high mortality in kids (previously uninfected).

[MUBurrow]

So yeah, about herd immunity...the populace doesn't develop herd immunity to more common coronaviruses, what is leading us to believe that we will for COVID-19?

I keep coming back to this too. I haven't been able to find much info on it, but I think part of the answer is that herd immunity just means that most people have the antibodies, but that can lead to a range of outcomes w/r/t any particular virus.  In some cases it means an entire population is effectively innoculated against contracting the virus, but in other cases it can lead to less severe cases of the illness when it is contracted. So I think even if covid-19 is here to stay because herd immunity won't knock it out completely, the hope is that we collectively build up enough antibodies that it stops killing people.  Sort of how the common cold could decimate a population that has never been exposed to that coronavirus, whereas for us it generally just makes life miserable for awhile.

[GooooMarquette]

The other coronaviruses do not mutate any more rapidly that SARS-CoV2. It is simply a matter of any immunity not lasting a particularly long time, and the virus becoming endemic in a population.

It appears we are going to have this become endemic.

What we can hope for, and I think will be the case, is that subsequent rounds of infection have lower mortality due to a slightly elevated immune response. That means mortality can be significantly lowered, but infection rates remaining high. The good news is that this doesn't affect children as severely, so we do not have to worry about long-term high mortality in kids (previously uninfected).

Helpful information. I thought I read something about a slower mutation rate, but I can’t find it right now. I trust your info.

Regarding future rounds of infection, I think you are right that are that the elevated immune response will help. Also, we will hopefully have some effective treatments by then, like we now do with HIV/AIDS.

[Pakuni]

Big Harvard report released today on how to get back to normal this summer:

Key findings ... we need way more testing (5 million per day by June; 20 million per day by midsummer), contact tracing and supported isolation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhRQxk9QA-o&t=25s

https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/center-for-ethics/files/roadmaptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20_0.pdf

[tower912]

What?!?!?    Widespread testing?!?!?    Harrumph.     


Anyway, I am fascinated by the research about older vaccines, BGR and the oral Polio to be specific,  creating additional immunity in the body to help withstand COVID.   

[forgetful]

Helpful information. I thought I read something about a slower mutation rate, but I can’t find it right now. I trust your info.

Regarding future rounds of infection, I think you are right that are that the elevated immune response will help. Also, we will hopefully have some effective treatments by then, like we now do with HIV/AIDS.

It's possible you did indeed read that. There is a lot of info out there, and the wording can get quite tricky, where it isn't really clear what they mean. This is a byproduct of the internet era, easy to create content, so more of it, but that makes it harder to find content that is well done/accurate.

A lot of articles will state it has a low-mutation rate. But that is relative to all other viruses, not just coronaviruses. Some early reports also thought it mutated less than SARS, but they had so little data, and samples, that such conclusions were not warranted.

The best data right now suggests on average 2 mutations per month. That is the same as the flu, but coronaviruses have a larger genome, so the mutation rate is actually considerably lower than the flu. 2 mutations per month is fairly normal in comparison to RNA viruses.

[WarriorDad]

I had a long call with a former colleague of mine yesterday.  He lives in an Atlanta suburb.  They are soft-launching a re-opening of the state this week.  Asked if he was nervous, he said slightly but his business is in tough shape and he is more worried about his employees and the economic future. 

In my opinion this is why the protests are happening.  It is easy for Sam Dekker or the nation's wealthy to vent on Twitter to stay home, and they may be right for certain segments of society.  Put yourself in the shoes of someone who has their livelihood imploding or believe their individual rights are trampled on and disagreements happen.  I can rationally see the arguments of both sides.

The more I read about Sweden I wonder if they had it right?  But if we took that approach, would the political willpower to withstand the deaths and the incredible criticism that goes with it be tolerable?  Almost certainly no.

[rocky_warrior]

The more I read about Sweden I wonder if they had it right? 

OMG.  No.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I had a long call with a former colleague of mine yesterday.  He lives in an Atlanta suburb.  They are soft-launching a re-opening of the state this week.  Asked if he was nervous, he said slightly but his business is in tough shape and he is more worried about his employees and the economic future. 

In my opinion this is why the protests are happening.  It is easy for Sam Dekker or the nation's wealthy to vent on Twitter to stay home, and they may be right for certain segments of society.  Put yourself in the shoes of someone who has their livelihood imploding or believe their individual rights are trampled on and disagreements happen.  I can rationally see the arguments of both sides.

The more I read about Sweden I wonder if they had it right?  But if we took that approach, would the political willpower to withstand the deaths and the incredible criticism that goes with it be tolerable?  Almost certainly no.

As I mentioned from the article you posted:

“But Sweden’s 1,937 deaths is far higher in number and proportionally to Denmark’s 370 and Finland’s 141.”

[jesmu84]

I had a long call with a former colleague of mine yesterday.  He lives in an Atlanta suburb.  They are soft-launching a re-opening of the state this week.  Asked if he was nervous, he said slightly but his business is in tough shape and he is more worried about his employees and the economic future. 

In my opinion this is why the protests are happening.  It is easy for Sam Dekker or the nation's wealthy to vent on Twitter to stay home, and they may be right for certain segments of society.  Put yourself in the shoes of someone who has their livelihood imploding or believe their individual rights are trampled on and disagreements happen.  I can rationally see the arguments of both sides.

The more I read about Sweden I wonder if they had it right?  But if we took that approach, would the political willpower to withstand the deaths and the incredible criticism that goes with it be tolerable?  Almost certainly no.

Dude. We know why the protests are happening.  And it has nothing to do with the virus or economy.

[Hards Alumni]

Dude. We know why the protests are happening.  And it has nothing to do with the virus or economy.

It can be both.  I'm sure quite a few of those people protesting are honest Americans that don't understand how deadly this is and want life to go back to normal.

[tower912]

I had a long call with a former colleague of mine yesterday.  He lives in an Atlanta suburb.  They are soft-launching a re-opening of the state this week.  Asked if he was nervous, he said slightly but his business is in tough shape and he is more worried about his employees and the economic future. 

In my opinion this is why the protests are happening.  It is easy for Sam Dekker or the nation's wealthy to vent on Twitter to stay home, and they may be right for certain segments of society.  Put yourself in the shoes of someone who has their livelihood imploding or believe their individual rights are trampled on and disagreements happen.  I can rationally see the arguments of both sides.

The more I read about Sweden I wonder if they had it right?  But if we took that approach, would the political willpower to withstand the deaths and the incredible criticism that goes with it be tolerable?  Almost certainly no.

Just come out and embrace the Texas Lt. Governor already.  "There are more important things than living".   You know you want to.   And prove it by going out and volunteering in the hard hit areas.

[StillAWarrior]

Chris Cuomo is coming off as kind of a jagoff, no? 

[tower912]

No.