COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[rocket surgeon]

   i don't know if this has been posted anywhere yet as i can't read everyone of the past posts, but super interesting in the type of progress they are making into how the virus interacts with our cells- there are some whom are more predisposed than others-why?  they are researching the interactions of the virus particle and it's binding to the ACE-2 protein on cell membranes to enter our cells.  it appears to be where the illness process begins-if they could find something to block this interaction...?



https://www.drugtargetreview.com/news/56895/scientists-demonstrate-how-covid-19-infects-human-cells/

[Lennys Tap]

We are in agreement. The post I was replying to was highlighting how wrong Fauci was for saying the death rate might be below 1%. Highlighting that even the scientists got it wrong. But, Fauci was referring to the true mortality rate, if all cases and all deaths were known.

The original post was not understanding the science, and the data, and how they differ. I actually believe he did understand it, but was ignoring it to push an agenda.

As of right now, the dashboard at Johns Hopkins suggests the death rate in Germany from Covid is 2%. Serology tests from the town of Gangelt (hit particularly hard) indicate a morbidity rate of .37%. I understand that the death rate will vary based on who is infected and how effectively the infected are treated, but assuming a rate of .37% could be lowered significantly by quarantining our most vulnerable (I think 25% of the deaths in New York have been in nursing homes) could a plan to create herd immunity end up being our safest path?

[wadesworld]

Wonder what Chicos thinks about all of this. All quarantined up in California. Sitting on the porch, washing his manly F-150 and watering his lawn.

Definitely not on Scoop at all with all this free time.

Does he name drop to the children or the dog? Send texts to Peyton and Eli?

Social distancing beer summits in the back yard with rain check tickets for Warriordad and billyhoyle.

[Mutaman]

  His mental acuity is troubling. This is how it will be done if I had to guess.  He will not make it to August.  He will be exposed in the debates and heavy scrutiny of a campaign.  Cannot hose him that long. 

Considering you guys equate Ronnie with Abe Lincoln, and the Gipper is the poster boy for dementia, it would seem to me that you would love having another leader who is suffering a decline in mental functioning.
But no matter how badly Bidden ages in the next year, I doubt he will be spending next Easter Sunday watching cable news and tweeting about comparisons between Chris Wallace and Chuck Todd.

[forgetful]

   i don't know if this has been posted anywhere yet as i can't read everyone of the past posts, but super interesting in the type of progress they are making into how the virus interacts with our cells- there are some whom are more predisposed than others-why?  they are researching the interactions of the virus particle and it's binding to the ACE-2 protein on cell membranes to enter our cells.  it appears to be where the illness process begins-if they could find something to block this interaction...?



https://www.drugtargetreview.com/news/56895/scientists-demonstrate-how-covid-19-infects-human-cells/

There are a ton of labs working on targeting this directly. Both with existing FDA approved drugs, and new therapeutics.

I didn't post this paper, but it was what I was referencing a long ways back in this thread, when I commented on scientists around the world being really on top of this. Lots of data being shared openly in ways I've never seen before, from all parts of the globe.

[forgetful]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/2020/04/12/coronavirus-nick-cordero-tony-nominated-broadway-actor-icu/2979407001/

Wonder how many cases are out there like this. He tested negative twice, before finally being confirmed to have COVID.

Are we getting false negatives? If so, that complicates opening things up.

To answer my own question, apparently our best tests lead to at least 10% false negatives, and because we have so many different tests out there, some are worse than others.

Apparently, clinical diagnoses, right now are more accurate, and some patients have to be tested up to 4 times to finally get a positive confirmation.

[GooooMarquette]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/2020/04/12/coronavirus-nick-cordero-tony-nominated-broadway-actor-icu/2979407001/

Wonder how many cases are out there like this. He tested negative twice, before finally being confirmed to have COVID.

Are we getting false negatives? If so, that complicates opening things up.

To answer my own question, apparently our best tests lead to at least 10% false negatives, and because we have so many different tests out there, some are worse than others.

Apparently, clinical diagnoses, right now are more accurate, and some patients have to be tested up to 4 times to finally get a positive confirmation.

That is one of the concerns I have with CDC taking the back seat and letting the testing be so decentralized. I get that the CDC initially messed up and independent labs had to fill the void for the initial crisis. But CDC still should have taken another go at it and developed a single standardized test to take over. Instead, the independent labs are still running their own in-house developed tests, likely with varying degrees of accuracy.

[GooooMarquette]

And here is another reason why CDC needs in front of this fight, instead of standing behind state and local public health officials:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/us/coronavirus-biogen-boston-superspreader.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Executives from Biogen spread COVID at a March conference in Boston. When the MA Department of Public Health tried to trace the contacts, they were only able to find those in MA. According to the article:

The official count of those sickened— 99, including employees and their contacts, according to the Massachusetts Department of Public Health — includes only those who live in that state. The true number across the United States is certainly higher.

In other words, state or local contact tracing is inherently limited. If CDC was coordinating this, they would almost certainly have a more accurate count (and ideally, might even have had the resource to limit the spread).

Keeping the CDC on the sidelines is killing people.

[forgetful]

And here is another reason why CDC needs in front of this fight, instead of standing behind state and local public health officials:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/us/coronavirus-biogen-boston-superspreader.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Executives from Biogen spread COVID at a March conference in Boston. When the MA Department of Public Health tried to trace the contacts, they were only able to find those in MA. According to the article:

The official count of those sickened— 99, including employees and their contacts, according to the Massachusetts Department of Public Health — includes only those who live in that state. The true number across the United States is certainly higher.

In other words, state or local contact tracing is inherently limited. If CDC was coordinating this, they would almost certainly have a more accurate count (and ideally, might even have had the resource to limit the spread).

Keeping the CDC on the sidelines is killing people.

Honestly, this is all maddening. These are simple things. This is part of what the CDC is designed to do.

[Jockey]

As of right now, the dashboard at Johns Hopkins suggests the death rate in Germany from Covid is 2%. Serology tests from the town of Gangelt (hit particularly hard) indicate a morbidity rate of .37%. I understand that the death rate will vary based on who is infected and how effectively the infected are treated, but assuming a rate of .37% could be lowered significantly by quarantining our most vulnerable (I think 25% of the deaths in New York have been in nursing homes) could a plan to create herd immunity end up being our safest path?

This isn't meant as an argument, Lenny. But those numbers don't tell us anything.

We have no idea what the death rate is - here or anywhere. Here for example, we have tested well under 1% of the population. Most patients who have symptoms and call their doctor are told to quarantine at home. The 2% rate is mostly based on very sick patients. A decent percentage of people with Covid show no symptoms - so they, too are not tested.


We simply don't know what percentage of the population has caught it and, of those, what percentage have died.

[mu03eng]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/2020/04/12/coronavirus-nick-cordero-tony-nominated-broadway-actor-icu/2979407001/

Wonder how many cases are out there like this. He tested negative twice, before finally being confirmed to have COVID.

Are we getting false negatives? If so, that complicates opening things up.

To answer my own question, apparently our best tests lead to at least 10% false negatives, and because we have so many different tests out there, some are worse than others.

Apparently, clinical diagnoses, right now are more accurate, and some patients have to be tested up to 4 times to finally get a positive confirmation.

There are a lot of false negatives, my wife's hospital has had at least 15% of the patients who were clinically and/or eventually confirmed by testing present a false negative at least once. The main driver seems to be the collection method, you have to jam a swab up the nose and swirl it around for 15 seconds to get a viable sample.

[🏀]

My mom’s best friend was first tested on Monday. She had an “inconclusive” result on Wednesday. She demanded to be get retested on Thursday, results came back yesterday that she was positive.

Six days to get a positive test result, yeah. The US is not ready to open back up.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

My mom’s best friend was first tested on Monday. She had an “inconclusive” result on Wednesday. She demanded to be get retested on Thursday, results came back yesterday that she was positive.

Six days to get a positive test result, yeah. The US is not ready to open back up.

But we are going to.  Hopefully mitigation plans will be in place.

[MU82]

“California and the Bay Area response is impressive because it was done before there were obvious and tangible risks,” said Dr. Robert Wachter at the University of California, San Francisco.

[jesmu84]

So, this is a 100% true story -

MLB made a "donation" to a major research university in exchange for thousands of Coronavirus antibody POC tests. 99% sensitivity, instant results. They have distributed these to every team. I know that at least the Braves received 300 of these tests. Initially, the tests were to be used on players/staff and given at the discretion of the team physicians. However, many of the owners are telling the team docs that they want them for personal use. In the case of the Braves, the team doc was to use 190+ on family/friends of the owner.

This is another sad example of our society not prioritizing need.

[Hards Alumni]

So, this is a 100% true story -

MLB made a "donation" to a major research university in exchange for thousands of Coronavirus antibody POC tests. 99% sensitivity, instant results. They have distributed these to every team. I know that at least the Braves received 300 of these tests. Initially, the tests were to be used on players/staff and given at the discretion of the team physicians. However, many of the owners are telling the team docs that they want them for personal use. In the case of the Braves, the team doc was to use 190+ on family/friends of the owner.

This is another sad example of our society not prioritizing need.

And how do you know this?

[tower912]

So, this is a 100% true story -

MLB made a "donation" to a major research university in exchange for thousands of Coronavirus antibody POC tests. 99% sensitivity, instant results. They have distributed these to every team. I know that at least the Braves received 300 of these tests. Initially, the tests were to be used on players/staff and given at the discretion of the team physicians. However, many of the owners are telling the team docs that they want them for personal use. In the case of the Braves, the team doc was to use 190+ on family/friends of the owner.

This is another sad example of our society not prioritizing need.

It is an internet rumor without sourcing.

[jesmu84]

It is an internet rumor without sourcing.

Not if someone personally knows the Braves team doc.

[Hards Alumni]

Not if someone personally knows the Braves team doc.

Actually, just checked with my source in MLB and this story is somewhat true.

[jesmu84]

Actually, just checked with my source in MLB and this story is somewhat true.

 

[WarriorDad]

8 reasons to end the Lockdown as soon as possible. Penned by doctors.  It would be eye opening to do a national survey of doctors and their opinions on this topic and break it out by geography.

Our leaders have some tough decisions ahead.  It is also why CDC cannot be put in charge of all this.  The decision is not only health based, but national security, economic, legal & constitutional.  CDC are not elected leaders.

Here are their 8 reasons.  I find myself supporting some of them, but not all.  The suicide element is of great concern.

https://medium.com/@jbgeach/eight-reasons-to-end-the-lockdowns-as-soon-as-possible-b7bb0bc94f00

[GooooMarquette]

8 reasons to end the Lockdown as soon as possible. Penned by doctors.  It would be eye opening to do a national survey of doctors and their opinions on this topic and break it out by geography.

Our leaders have some tough decisions ahead.  It is also why CDC cannot be put in charge of all this.  The decision is not only health based, but national security, economic, legal & constitutional.  CDC are not elected leaders.

Here are their 8 reasons.  I find myself supporting some of them, but not all.  The suicide element is of great concern.

https://medium.com/@jbgeach/eight-reasons-to-end-the-lockdowns-as-soon-as-possible-b7bb0bc94f00

Nobody ever said CDC should be in charge of all of this. But CDC most definitely should be in charge of the testing and contact tracing...which is what it was created to do, and what it did in the H1N1 outbreak.

And if we (i.e. the elected leaders) don't let CDC do the job for which it is uniquely qualified, the elected leaders will be making decisions based on less accurate data about a crisis that is worse than it needs to be.

[GooooMarquette]

So, this is a 100% true story -

MLB made a "donation" to a major research university in exchange for thousands of Coronavirus antibody POC tests. 99% sensitivity, instant results. They have distributed these to every team. I know that at least the Braves received 300 of these tests. Initially, the tests were to be used on players/staff and given at the discretion of the team physicians. However, many of the owners are telling the team docs that they want them for personal use. In the case of the Braves, the team doc was to use 190+ on family/friends of the owner.

This is another sad example of our society not prioritizing need.

Maybe it's sad...or maybe it's really good.

If MLB just paid the cost of the tests, and essentially "skipped in line" ahead of less-wealthy people or people with higher-priority needs, then yes - if would be a sad example.

But if MLB's donation was big enough to pay the cost of the tests, plus enough extra to help advance the research university's research about COVID, I would argue it's a good thing.

The latter scenario happens all the time in nonprofits. A rich dude donates $5M to a research facility, and gets to the front of the line when he's sick. But the facility still has plenty of money to fund research labs, studies into new treatments, etc. Like I said, a good thing...for the rich dude, for the institution, and for all the people who might benefit from discoveries that otherwise might not be made.

IMHO - we'd need to know a lot more about the size of the donation and the cost of the tests to know if it's good or bad.

[jesmu84]

https://www.info.lillycovid19testing.com/study

In Indianapolis, Lilly will begin testing asymptomatic individuals.

[jesmu84]

Maybe it's sad...or maybe it's really good.

If MLB just paid the cost of the tests, and essentially "skipped in line" ahead of less-wealthy people or people with higher-priority needs, then yes - if would be a sad example.

But if MLB's donation was big enough to pay the cost of the tests, plus enough extra to help advance the research university's research about COVID, I would argue it's a good thing.

The latter scenario happens all the time in nonprofits. A rich dude donates $5M to a research facility, and gets to the front of the line when he's sick. But the facility still has plenty of money to fund research labs, studies into new treatments, etc. Like I said, a good thing...for the rich dude, for the institution, and for all the people who might benefit from discoveries that otherwise might not be made.

IMHO - we'd need to know a lot more about the size of the donation and the cost of the tests to know if it's good or bad.

Ya. I understand that.

I just think when it's a pandemic that is also threatening the global economy, the testing needs to be prioritized to maximize tracing/treatment/return to work. I don't think Ted Turner's nephew's roommate is a priority in the grand scheme.

Again, because of the nature of the situation, to me, it's far different that your old guy scenario.