COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Would never work here. Too much socialism and not enough corporate welfare.

Corporate socialism good, people welfare bad.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Here's an example of what we're (read: The Federal Government, read: Trump and Jared) still doing wrong.  Flying PPE supplies in and then turning them over to private companies so states have to bid against each other.  I bet I can guess who is profiteering on this.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1247335425074696199

[jesmu84]

Here's an example of what we're (read: The Federal Government, read: Trump and Jared) still doing wrong.  Flying PPE supplies in and then turning them over to private companies so states have to bid against each other.  I bet I can guess who is profiteering on this.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1247335425074696199

That's f'ed up. And some of the stuff I was talking about in the supplies/PPE thread.

[Jockey]

I don't disagree.  And my post wasn't intended at all to be a "it's not that bad" post (and I'm not suggesting you said it is). I'm merely thinking that I'm happy to see that the big steps we all started taking a few weeks ago seem to be having the desired effect and I don't know why so many of the people who explained it to me (both here and elsewhere) are ignoring that.

I agree with all that you have said in your last several posts.

But I think what angers people is the lack of leadership. Most governors- both D and R have done a good job. Flattening the curve has occurred only because of their leadership. But there is no leadership at the top. The daily briefings are simply campaign events to attack the news media and Dems and to glorify himself. We pretty much know that the decision to open things back up will be made by his advisors on Fox.

So, yes we have flattened the curve, but we have no plan moving forward. We are at the whim of a fool.  I think that fact is why we have all of the bickering. No one knows what is next and we have no one to enunciate such a plan.

[StillAWarrior]

That sucks that your daughter's VB season will be canceled.

For the record, I don't know that it will. I am just getting her prepared that it is not unthinkable that the NCAA won't cancel fall sports. I think the fact that football is a fall sport might actually cause the NCAA to think very long and hard before cancelling the fall competition seasons.

On the other hand, if they cancel fall sports maybe she will get another season of eligibility. Perhaps she could get her first year of grad school paid for.

[JWags85]

Here is how Germany handles these types of financial situations instead of doing mass layoffs coupled with unemployment benefits.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2020/04/07/828081285/are-we-firing-too-many-people?utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr

Its interesting, but its poorly timed in my opinion.  That works in business slowdowns, not black swan events where your revenue is slashed by 50-60-70% if not more, and you don't know when that will resume.

I think it also depends on the business type, which is called out in the article. I struggle to see how that would work for a white collar business services field or the like.

It does remind me of a customer I have in Thailand.  He built a factory in a farming community.  Farmers are trained, often in a family setting.  When business is humming, the factory is full, when its less, some or most of the factory workers return to their farms with a stipend that its a smaller portion of wages

Unfortunately, in a report just out:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/2020-04-07-coronavirus-news-n1178111

At the start of what officials have warned could be the deadliest week of the coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. recorded more than 1,200 coronavirus deaths in 24 hours, bringing the total number of deaths to nearly 11,000 on Tuesday morning.

Not trying to be FAKE NEWS at all, but now that we are getting to inflection points, its interesting how these numbers get reported.  Numbers out of NYC today were very promising.  New ICU cases have dropped precipitously over the last few days.  However, I started noticing people on Twitter and the like, who have traditionally been posting new cases, hospitalizations, new ICU, total deaths, etc...  solely focused on BIGGEST 1 DAY DEATH IN NYC.  Even though Cuomo himself said its a lagging indicator and the lowered cases are cause for much optimism.  We are far from out of the woods, and its definitely necessary to frame the gravity of everything, but total deaths or "new deaths" are far from an accurate indicator of progress in the fight.

[MU82]

We are far from out of the woods, and its definitely necessary to frame the gravity of everything, but total deaths or "new deaths" are far from an accurate indicator of progress in the fight.

Reasonable.

I like to think that all of us here want the same thing.

[Jockey]

Trump fires Inspector General who was to oversee spending.

Biggest non-surprise in history?

[Jockey]

I don't disagree.  And my post wasn't intended at all to be a "it's not that bad" post (and I'm not suggesting you said it is). I'm merely thinking that I'm happy to see that the big steps we all started taking a few weeks ago seem to be having the desired effect and I don't know why so many of the people who explained it to me (both here and elsewhere) are ignoring that.

Sorry for the double post.

[injuryBug]

I'm not specifically referring to you.

And I'm absolutely not even remotely suggesting we're close to re-opening things.  I figure we're hunkered down until at least June. I've been telling my oldest that she should probably prepare herself to have her senior VB season cancelled.

I have been warning my oldest too that he may not have a senior football season.  He already had a possible trip to state for hoops canceled (1 game away) and his junior aau season.  He wants to play hoops in college and has been told he can play D2 but who knows if all of aau is canceled this year

[Elonsmusk]

They are different, but it is a bold-faced lie to say that hydroxychloroquine doesn't have side effects and there is "virtually" no risk in taking it, especially at the dosages being prescribed for COVID. For one, it can cause vision loss.

There is also very little evidence, that it is having an effect on COVID at all. The preliminary studies supportive of it are weak at best, and poorly designed studies. Some data has been contradictory, and even suggests it could make things worse in some cases.

Bottom line, we need to wait and see. The early data is not supportive of rushing out and giving this to everyone. Remember, if you give them this treatment, you often rule out then, other treatments that offer equal or better preliminary data.

Trust the scientists.

I'll wait for you to link the story about a Corona patient who loses their vision due to taking Hydroxy.  Just because you can't run a formal clinical trial phase 1, 2, 2a/b for this indication, shouldn't preclude its usage.

What are the other treatments currently available that offer equal or better preliminary data?

Interesting the rate of intubation, hospitalization, ICU has dropped off significantly in NY in last few days, and they began the usage of hydroxy 1 week ago.  Coincidence or correlation?

I suspect if you are a loved one were struggling mightily with COVID, you'd turn to trying Hydroxy, because of the anecdotal evidence thus far.

[jesmu84]

I'll wait for you to link the story about a Corona patient who loses their vision due to taking Hydroxy.  Just because you can't run a formal clinical trial phase 1, 2, 2a/b for this indication, shouldn't preclude its usage.

What are the other treatments currently available that offer equal or better preliminary data?

Interesting the rate of intubation, hospitalization, ICU has dropped off significantly in NY in last few days, and they began the usage of hydroxy 1 week ago.  Coincidence or correlation?

I suspect if you are a loved one were struggling mightily with COVID, you'd turn to trying Hydroxy, because of the anecdotal evidence thus far.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the use of hydroxy was in early confirmed cases to prevent viral replication. Not severe symptomatic patients.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Interesting what is going on in other countries.
My wife's friend in Poland sent a picture she took from her apartment window.  She witnessed the police giving a woman a ticket who was wearing a hazmat suit and a mask simply for sitting on park bench.
Supposedly, in Poland you are only supposed to go outside if headed to the grocery store or pharmacy. 

[cheebs09]

Interesting what is going on in other countries.
My wife's friend in Poland sent a picture she took from her apartment window.  She witnessed the police giving a woman a ticket who was wearing a hazmat suit and a mask simply for sitting on park bench.
Supposedly, in Poland you are only supposed to go outside if headed to the grocery store or pharmacy.

Talked to a coworker in Poland the other day, and you could be fined pretty heavily if you are not in compliance of this.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

More the Onion to loosen things up.

Georgia Governor Argues That Closing State’s Beaches An Attack On Citizens’ Fundamental Right To Get Wet ’N’ Wild

https://politics.theonion.com/georgia-governor-argues-that-closing-state-s-beaches-an-1842709493

[GooooMarquette]

Good news...if we heed the caveats:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/health/ihme-updated-covid19-model/index.html

Fewer deaths through August and fewer hospital beds needed, as models are adjusted based on new data. But here's the catch:

But the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures -- such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue until August, and it still predicts tens of thousands of deaths.

Do we have the political and personal will to continue current measures until August?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Its interesting, but its poorly timed in my opinion.  That works in business slowdowns, not black swan events where your revenue is slashed by 50-60-70% if not more, and you don't know when that will resume.

I think it also depends on the business type, which is called out in the article. I struggle to see how that would work for a white collar business services field or the like.

It does remind me of a customer I have in Thailand.  He built a factory in a farming community.  Farmers are trained, often in a family setting.  When business is humming, the factory is full, when its less, some or most of the factory workers return to their farms with a stipend that its a smaller portion of wages

Not trying to be FAKE NEWS at all, but now that we are getting to inflection points, its interesting how these numbers get reported.  Numbers out of NYC today were very promising.  New ICU cases have dropped precipitously over the last few days.  However, I started noticing people on Twitter and the like, who have traditionally been posting new cases, hospitalizations, new ICU, total deaths, etc...  solely focused on BIGGEST 1 DAY DEATH IN NYC.  Even though Cuomo himself said its a lagging indicator and the lowered cases are cause for much optimism.  We are far from out of the woods, and its definitely necessary to frame the gravity of everything, but total deaths or "new deaths" are far from an accurate indicator of progress in the fight.

I’ve actually found the coverage that I read to be quite balanced. 

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491553-cuomo-reports-731-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-state-its-largest-one-day

Times had the deaths in the headline and intro but then covered the good news part for the rest of the piece.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/world/coronavirus-updates-news-live.html#link-ae559d4

Post was similar.  Journal didn’t have something that hit my feed, but they are less about breaking news on this topic.

[GooooMarquette]

Patients who need hydroxychloroquine to treat autoimmune diseases can't find it:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/07/patients-with-autoimmune-diseases-running-out-of-hydroxychloroquine.html

Very sad, but not surprising....

[JWags85]

Good news...if we heed the caveats:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/health/ihme-updated-covid19-model/index.html

Fewer deaths through August and fewer hospital beds needed, as models are adjusted based on new data. But here's the catch:

But the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures -- such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue until August, and it still predicts tens of thousands of deaths.

Do we have the political and personal will to continue current measures until August?

Forget personal will.  Closing everything until August will bring a widespread Depression and wipe out millions via economic impact.  Even with an expanded PPP or the like.  The longer a business stays closed, the longer it takes to get back up to speed and operating anywhere profitably after, in many cases. Ive mentioned before, provided the rest of the world doesnt do the exact same, if we are closed till August, many of our customers will move on and we will reopen to...nothingness.

Widespread testing and limited public gatherings and crowds for another 3-6 months starting in late May/June?  That could work.  Maintaining this level of shutdown and social distanced caution and closings is economic suicide. 

I’ve actually found the coverage that I read to be quite balanced. 

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491553-cuomo-reports-731-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-state-its-largest-one-day

Times had the deaths in the headline and intro but then covered the good news part for the rest of the piece.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/world/coronavirus-updates-news-live.html#link-ae559d4

Post was similar.  Journal didn’t have something that hit my feed, but they are less about breaking news on this topic.

I hadn't read a ton of print yet, but the headlines and excerpts on the news related tweets and the tickers on CNN all highlighted Cuomo announcing a record number of deaths.  Opening up the article GOOO linked above was the same, the sidebar "next article" from CNN was completely deaths according to Cuomo focused.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Trump fires Inspector General who was to oversee spending.

Biggest non-surprise in history?

The IG did his job correctly and filed an accurate report.  That is verboten in this administration.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Forget personal will.  Closing everything until August will bring a widespread Depression and wipe out millions via economic impact.  Even with an expanded PPP or the like.  The longer a business stays closed, the longer it takes to get back up to speed and operating anywhere profitably after, in many cases. Ive mentioned before, provided the rest of the world doesnt do the exact same, if we are closed till August, many of our customers will move on and we will reopen to...nothingness.

Widespread testing and limited public gatherings and crowds for another 3-6 months starting in late May/June?  That could work.  Maintaining this level of shutdown and social distanced caution and closings is economic suicide. 

This is why we have to figure out the best way to navigate the path forward.  If we all go back to the way it was, it just explodes again, but this time at the office, the factory floor, at church, etc.

If I were the leader of the free world there would be a few streams
1. Stop the crisis (social distance, PPE, ventilators, etc) - message this daily
2. Therapeutics - systems for idea, control trial, studies  -- how do we beat this when people get it
3. Vaccines - How do we fast track a way to stop this
4. System for new 'normal' - testing, containment, contact tracing, antibody certification
5. Economic response

1-4 is mainly doctor/scientist led with business/economic folks required (i.e. how do we compel more PPE production or will this certification keep an office environment running).

But what do I know.  I'm just a guy with a 6 month supply of TP

[JWags85]

This is why we have to figure out the best way to navigate the path forward.  If we all go back to the way it was, it just explodes again, but this time at the office, the factory floor, at church, etc.

If I were the leader of the free world there would be a few streams
1. Stop the crisis (social distance, PPE, ventilators, etc) - message this daily
2. Therapeutics - systems for idea, control trial, studies  -- how do we beat this when people get it
3. Vaccines - How do we fast track a way to stop this
4. System for new 'normal' - testing, containment, contact tracing, antibody certification
5. Economic response

1-4 is mainly doctor/scientist led with business/economic folks required (i.e. how do we compel more PPE production or will this certification keep an office environment running).

But what do I know.  I'm just a guy with a 6 month supply of TP

I don't disagree with you, and don't think just flinging the doors back open and saying "back at it America!" is the solution.  But I have a visceral reaction to any suggestions that are "this is working, just need another 3-4 months of this shutdown and we'll be fine".  Its myopic and detached from reality.

[Jockey]

The IG did his job correctly and filed an accurate report.  That is verboten in this administration.

No, T, that was the woman IG from HHS - another IG.

Trump fired the one who was to oversee corporate stimulus today.

[Jockey]

This is why we have to figure out the best way to navigate the path forward.  If we all go back to the way it was, it just explodes again, but this time at the office, the factory floor, at church, etc.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/us-eyes-second-coronavirus-outbreak-in-china?ref=wrap

[Pakuni]

Good news...if we heed the caveats:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/health/ihme-updated-covid19-model/index.html

Fewer deaths through August and fewer hospital beds needed, as models are adjusted based on new data. But here's the catch:

But the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures -- such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue until August, and it still predicts tens of thousands of deaths.

Do we have the political and personal will to continue current measures until August?

I doubt it.

Does the model take into account the possible advent of a treatment?
Call me a wild optimist, but I do believe we'll come up with some kind of treatment to lessen the symptoms. And once that's widely available, combined with warmer weather and herd immunity, it will allow things to open up again.
People will still get sick - people will still get sick either way - but if we can reduce the symptoms, we reduce the deaths, we reduce the severe cases and we reduce the stress on the health system.