COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[skianth16]

Zero chance we dont see 100k globally. If we dont itll be because of non reporting.
Almost zero chance we dont see 100k here as well. Hate to say it.
Usa restrictions are pretty mild compared to other countries. Half the states arent really doing anything. Not even close to a national lock down like others so i would not compare us to other places. Cases and deaths will skyrocket sadly. And apparently were gonna have packed churches and reopen things by easter. Idek what to say. Chaos awaits. Were all standing on the beach watching the tidal wave approach

Well, we obviously don't see eye to eye.

Globally, the US on the back end of this. It started in Asia, worked its way through Europe and is now in the US. Asia is on the downtrend, Europe seems to be past the peak, and we're still on the upswing. To date, we've seen 22K deaths globally. I don't think we see a 5x increase from here on out. That's my logic.

For the US, the Imperial College study said localized responses can be as effective as national responses. We've been hardest hit on the coasts, so their measures may look different than measures taken in other areas. Dense cities obviously have different concerns than sparsely populated rural areas. Not having a one-size-fits all approach can still be effective.

And we all know that even if Trump says today that he wants everything back open by Easter, that's far from a guarantee that everything will be back open by Easter. Wanting something and making it happen are two very different things.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/asia/japan-coronavirus.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Sounds like Japan may not be as good as hoped. 

A lot of suggestion that the government there was intentionally slow rolling this for the sake of the Olympics.

[Johnny B]

Well, we obviously don't see eye to eye.

Globally, the US on the back end of this. It started in Asia, worked its way through Europe and is now in the US. Asia is on the downtrend, Europe seems to be past the peak, and we're still on the upswing. To date, we've seen 22K deaths globally. I don't think we see a 5x increase from here on out. That's my logic.

For the US, the Imperial College study said localized responses can be as effective as national responses. We've been hardest hit on the coasts, so their measures may look different than measures taken in other areas. Dense cities obviously have different concerns than sparsely populated rural areas. Not having a one-size-fits all approach can still be effective.

And we all know that even if Trump says today that he wants everything back open by Easter, that's far from a guarantee that everything will be back open by Easter. Wanting something and making it happen are two very different things.

Hmm well i havent seen any projections that seem to indicate that but id be thrilled to be wrong in this situation

[Pakuni]

Well, we obviously don't see eye to eye.

Globally, the US on the back end of this. It started in Asia, worked its way through Europe and is now in the US. Asia is on the downtrend, Europe seems to be past the peak, and we're still on the upswing.

FWIW, most of Europe does not seem to be past its peak.
The curve as of yesterday:

[skianth16]

FWIW, most of Europe does not seem to be past its peak.
The curve as of yesterday:

I swear I saw something a little different earlier this week. I think it was showing daily cases or deaths and it was plateauing in the last few days. Maybe it was dated. Based on what you shared, I think you're probably right.

[Hards Alumni]

I swear I saw something a little different earlier this week. I think it was showing daily cases or deaths and it was plateauing in the last few days. Maybe it was dated. Based on what you shared, I think you're probably right.

Honestly, the US is not on the back end of this.  We are behind a few places in Europe.  You want to talk back end, lets talk about South America and Africa.

Things are only on the upswing across the world save a few countries like South Korea, China... and God willing, Italy.

Spain is a nightmare, Germany and France are on their way up as well... and the UK hasn't been testing enough.

You can look at a country like Switzerland and know that they are testing their asses off.  Once testing picks up, we will know what we are dealing with.

Known worldwide deaths will be probably surpass a million easily.  Of course this doesn't take into account the people that were not and will never be counted as covid19 postitive deaths

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

It's going to get worse.

New Rochelle went into lockdown two weeks ago and NYC still is seeing its numbers go up.  The irresponsible spring breakers and the people who didn't close the beaches while they could are going to see the results of their decisions come to fruition in the next 7-10 days.

Anyone who thinks we are going to be able to start things back up again by Easter is kidding themselves.

[GooooMarquette]

Anyone who thinks we are going to be able to start things back up again by Easter is kidding themselves.

Yep. The guarantee of having things up and running by Easter is about as likely to happen as the US building a wall and getting Mexico to pay for it.

At least he's consistent.

[skianth16]

Honestly, the US is not on the back end of this.  We are behind a few places in Europe.  You want to talk back end, lets talk about South America and Africa.

Things are only on the upswing across the world save a few countries like South Korea, China... and God willing, Italy.

Spain is a nightmare, Germany and France are on their way up as well... and the UK hasn't been testing enough.

You can look at a country like Switzerland and know that they are testing their asses off.  Once testing picks up, we will know what we are dealing with.

Known worldwide deaths will be probably surpass a million easily.  Of course this doesn't take into account the people that were not and will never be counted as covid19 postitive deaths

Research suggests South America and Africa may not be hit as hard as northern areas due to their climates. Don't you find it at all curious that something like 90% of cases are all in the northern hemisphere? I think that shows a low likelihood that those areas will have severe outbreaks. That makes me think the US is one of the last areas to get hit.

As for total numbers, I have a really hard time seeing the leap from 20,000 to a million. The world is taking this seriously and putting in pre-emptive measures. Some areas are still going to see awful scenarios like Italy. But if Italy is what we consider awful, then getting to a million deaths seems highly unlikely.

[GooooMarquette]

Research suggests South America and Africa may not be hit as hard as northern areas due to their climates. Don't you find it at all curious that something like 90% of cases are all in the northern hemisphere? I think that shows a low likelihood that those areas will have severe outbreaks. That makes me think the US is one of the last areas to get hit.

As for total numbers, I have a really hard time seeing the leap from 20,000 to a million. The world is taking this seriously and putting in pre-emptive measures. Some areas are still going to see awful scenarios like Italy. But if Italy is what we consider awful, then getting to a million deaths seems highly unlikely.

The Southern Hemisphere was in late summer when this started. Now it's well into fall. And then comes winter....

[skianth16]

Yep. The guarantee of having things up and running by Easter is about as likely to happen as the US building a wall and getting Mexico to pay for it.

At least he's consistent.

Just can't help yourself, can you?

Also, pretty sure he didn't guarantee the US would be open by Easter. He just said he wants that.

[GooooMarquette]

Just can't help yourself, can you?

Also, pretty sure he didn't guarantee the US would be open by Easter. He just said he wants that.

Shooting fish in a barrel....

[skianth16]

Shooting fish in a barrel....

Weird that you were wrong though.

[Hards Alumni]

Research suggests South America and Africa may not be hit as hard as northern areas due to their climates. Don't you find it at all curious that something like 90% of cases are all in the northern hemisphere? I think that shows a low likelihood that those areas will have severe outbreaks. That makes me think the US is one of the last areas to get hit.

As for total numbers, I have a really hard time seeing the leap from 20,000 to a million. The world is taking this seriously and putting in pre-emptive measures. Some areas are still going to see awful scenarios like Italy. But if Italy is what we consider awful, then getting to a million deaths seems highly unlikely.

No, and I still don't buy that hypothesis at all.  The virus moved from China to the rest of the world via air travel.  The places that are seeing the outbreak have a lot of contact with Chinese traveling abroad. 

Ecuador, Chile, Pakistan, Thailand, Maylaysia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Indonesia, Dominican Republic and many other sub tropical, tropical, and hot climate countries just added 10% to their totals today.  They are only now starting to get their testing numbers back, so I expect them to follow the general trend of other places in the world.

[GooooMarquette]

Weird that you were wrong though. Do you think you'd miss the barrel completely if you were shooting at those fish?

I'd rather get one thing wrong than have it become my modus operandi.

*Mexico will pay for the wall
*We will repeal and replace Obamacare
*We will win so much we'll get sick of it (honestly, I wish we had been right about this one).

And then there was him saying that he knew it was a pandemic before anyone else did.

So yeah - maybe one bullet missed the barrel. Still, most of them got me a fish.

[skianth16]

No, and I still don't buy that hypothesis at all.  The virus moved from China to the rest of the world via air travel.  The places that are seeing the outbreak have a lot of contact with Chinese traveling abroad. 

Ecuador, Chile, Pakistan, Thailand, Maylaysia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Indonesia, Dominican Republic and many other sub tropical, tropical, and hot climate countries just added 10% to their totals today.  They are only now starting to get their testing numbers back, so I expect them to follow the general trend of other places in the world.

I'll trust the research on this for now. And continue to look for a light at the end of the tunnel.

[skianth16]

I'd rather get one thing wrong than have it become my modus operandi.

*Mexico will pay for the wall
*We will repeal and replace Obamacare
*We will win so much we'll get sick of it (honestly, I wish we had been right about this one).

And then there was him saying that he knew it was a pandemic before anyone else did.

So yeah - maybe one bullet missed the barrel. Still, most of them got me a fish.

Despite the pleasure as you get from this, it's not at all relevant to the conversation. I'm sure there are plenty of other outlets for you to share this kind of stuff.

[Hards Alumni]

I'll trust the research on this for now. And continue to look for a light at the end of the tunnel.

What research?  The non peer reviewed paper you linked?  They only drew a correlation.  That paper reeks of people trying to throw crap at a wall to see what sticks so they can hang their hat on it later.

I will be hopeful too, but always skeptical of claims without merit, and no means of testing the hypothesis... which is what they admit it is.

[pbiflyer]

Research suggests South America and Africa may not be hit as hard as northern areas due to their climates. Don't you find it at all curious that something like 90% of cases are all in the northern hemisphere? I think that shows a low likelihood that those areas will have severe outbreaks. That makes me think the US is one of the last areas to get hit.

As for total numbers, I have a really hard time seeing the leap from 20,000 to a million. The world is taking this seriously and putting in pre-emptive measures. Some areas are still going to see awful scenarios like Italy. But if Italy is what we consider awful, then getting to a million deaths seems highly unlikely.

Holy crap, 90%????? That is amazing. Almost as amazing as this:

The Northern Hemisphere is home to approximately 6.57 billion people which is around 90% of the earth's total human population of 7.3 billion people.

Occum with the win again!

https://www.businessinsider.com/90-of-people-live-in-the-northern-hemisphere-2012-5

[GooooMarquette]

Despite the pleasure as you get from this, it's not at all relevant to the conversation. I'm sure there are plenty of other outlets for you to share this kind of stuff.

Fair enough.

Then how about responding to my comment about it moving towards winter in the Southern Hemisphere? You said the US is toward the end of the curve because you don't expect significant increases in the Southern Hemisphere. And yet you were the one who claimed a few pages back that warm and humid weather decreases infection rates. So if the warm and humid weather is gradually leaving the Southern Hemisphere, where do you get the confidence to say we won't see spikes there?

[The Lens]

Also countless people will never even realize they had it or wont get tested

 I feel like this is true for the flu as well.  I'm sure tens of thousands fight thru the flu, never going to the hospital / doctor.

[skianth16]

What research?  The non peer reviewed paper you linked?  They only drew a correlation.  That paper reeks of people trying to throw crap at a wall to see what sticks so they can hang their hat on it later.

I will be hopeful too, but always skeptical of claims without merit, and no means of testing the hypothesis... which is what they admit it is.

I shared 3 papers on that topic. And none of the papers are peer reviewed right now. Researchers and scientists are trying to share what they learn as quickly as possible.

[skianth16]

Fair enough.

Then how about responding to my comment about it moving towards winter in the Southern Hemisphere? You said the US is toward the end of the curve because you don't expect significant increases in the Southern Hemisphere. And yet you were the one who claimed a few pages back that warm and humid weather decreases infection rates. So if the warm and humid weather is gradually leaving the Southern Hemisphere, where do you get the confidence to say we won't see spikes there?

You made a fair point. I'm guessing that a lot of the areas that remain hot and humid will never get hit hard. More populated areas that do experience a cold, dry months may see cases increase in the next several months. But with the controls being put in place in areas where the virus is thriving now, I'm guess the spread to cooler areas in a few months will be more muted than what we're experiencing now.

[injuryBug]

I feel like this is true for the flu as well.  I'm sure tens of thousands fight thru the flu, never going to the hospital / doctor.

yes i know when my house of 6 had the flu a few years back we did not call a dr at all just dealt with it for a week and moved on.  All numbers are just huge estimates. 
A huge reason the death toll from covid-19 will be higher than the normal yearly flu or h1n1 is the people impacted most are older or have existing conditions

[pbiflyer]

I swear I saw something a little different earlier this week. I think it was showing daily cases or deaths and it was plateauing in the last few days. Maybe it was dated. Based on what you shared, I think you're probably right.

It would have had to have been very dated. Early February.  Deaths per day have been steadily increasing.
Scroll down on this page to see.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/