COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[skianth16]

But it isn't.  They took precautions and isolated people.  We have done so little, and have a significantly larger amount of community spread than they have ever have.

I get what you're saying. Since the US has been decidedly less proactive, you think it's fair to assume that our positive test rate should be much higher than Korea's. I don't disagree with that. But I do still think our current positive test rate is artificially high. And probably by a lot.

I would also point out that Korea testing is still pretty targeted, since a lot of their testing has been focused on those with known exposure to positive cases. So while their rate is fairly assumed to be lower than ours given their preventative measures, I would still lean toward the standard positive test rate being closer to theirs than ours.

Further, I haven't seen much noting isolation as a key measure in Korea outside of just those who have tested positive and their close connections. And the US has certainly been pushing that idea as well. The article below notes that Korea has had a very different approach from China and Italy, which seems to be very effective. The question is whether their model is even possible without the testing capacity they have. I assume no, but to me, this offers a lot more hope than what I've heard from the US experts.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3075164/south-koreas-coronavirus-response-opposite-china-and

[Hards Alumni]

I get what you're saying. Since the US has been decidedly less proactive, you think it's fair to assume that our positive test rate should be much higher than Korea's. I don't disagree with that. But I do still think our current positive test rate is artificially high. And probably by a lot.

I would also point out that Korea testing is still pretty targeted, since a lot of their testing has been focused on those with known exposure to positive cases. So while their rate is fairly assumed to be lower than ours given their preventative measures, I would still lean toward the standard positive test rate being closer to theirs than ours.

Further, I haven't seen much noting isolation as a key measure in Korea outside of just those who have tested positive and their close connections. And the US has certainly been pushing that idea as well. The article below notes that Korea has had a very different approach from China and Italy, which seems to be very effective. The question is whether their model is even possible without the testing capacity they have. I assume no, but to me, this offers a lot more hope than what I've heard from the US experts.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3075164/south-koreas-coronavirus-response-opposite-china-and

I think we are mostly in agreement here.  I've been saying for a while that we need to be more like South Korea.  Obviously, we need to do it on a much larger scale.

[Benny B]

Right now there is very little evidence to support this being true. Is it possible, yes, is it likely no. I guess it partly depends on what you mean by "lots". If you mean another 3-5k people nationwide. Probably true. If you mean 100's of thousands, almost assuredly false.

Wow.  You’ve covered every possible counter-argument there.  You’ve even covered the counter-arguments to the counter-arguments. 

Social distancing isn’t going to bother you at all, eh?  But at the same time, it is going to bother you.  But only if you let it.  Which you will.  Unless you don’t.  Then you won’t.  Unless you do.

[Eldon]

Right now there is very little evidence to support this being true. Is it possible, yes, is it likely no. I guess it partly depends on what you mean by "lots". If you mean another 3-5k people nationwide. Probably true. If you mean 100's of thousands, almost assuredly false.

I definitely mean (evenyually) 100,000s nationwide.

Here's my amateur epidemiological reasoning using Boston alone.

Many people at the Biogen conference have tested positive. This conference happened on Feb 26-27, middle of the week.

Then, some of those same people went to a different conference in Boston, hosted by Cowen investment bank on that same weekend. This conference was held in the Prudential center, where there's a mall, an observation deck for tourists to see the Boston skyline, etc.

That's a lot of time for infected people to be roaming around the city.

Making matters worse, the Eastern Economic Association held a conference the same weekend at the same location (Prudential Center, Sheraton).

Prediction: the Boston metro area becomes THE next epicenter of the virus.

Those Biogen people have led to infections in many others who did not attend the initial conference.

The people in this "second concentric circle" would have been feeling the symptoms around March 4-6. These people were going about their day, running errands, etc, up until only a few days ago.

I fear that Boston will become so bad that Logan gets shutdown.

Obviously I sincerely hope that I'm wrong.

[forgetful]

I definitely mean (evenyually) 100,000s nationwide.

Here's my amateur epidemiological reasoning using Boston alone.

Many people at the Biogen conference have tested positive. This conference happened on Feb 26-27, middle of the week.

Then, some of those same people went to a different conference in Boston, hosted by Cowen investment bank on that same weekend. This conference was held in the Prudential center, where there's a mall, an observation deck for tourists to see the Boston skyline, etc.

That's a lot of time for infected people to be roaming around the city.

Making matters worse, the Eastern Economic Association held a conference the same weekend at the same location (Prudential Center, Sheraton).

Prediction: the Boston metro area becomes THE next epicenter of the virus.

Those Biogen people have led to infections in many others who did not attend the initial conference.

The people in this "second concentric circle" would have been feeling the symptoms around March 4-6. These people were going about their day, running errands, etc, up until only a few days ago.

I fear that Boston will become so bad that Logan gets shutdown.

Obviously I sincerely hope that I'm wrong.

The eventual 100'000s I agree with. Much for the reasons you say. As I noted above, my disagreement would be on 100,000's right now.

I estimate around 5k cases right now. But as you note those are spread across the nation, which allows each "concentric circle" to grow independently. Boston is going to get bad fast. How well people are able to distance themselves will determine how much these other "concentric circles" grow, and then ultimately how bad things get.

[forgetful]

Conspiracy theory alert:

Reading the UK response, where they are not taking any drastic measures, because they want people to get infected to generate herd immunity, there are some interesting aspects.

They are not taking drastic measures, because they believe the peak of this is still 3 months away, and they say that people are not going to follow drastic measures for 3 months. So they need a moderate number of infections now. They are essentially being open about their concerns and plans.

Now the conspiracy theory part. Are the delays in US testing essentially the same goal. To hide the real infections so that they could delay drastic measures. Essentially deciding that Americans, if they knew the true number of infections would freak out (like they are now), so hid the real data by not testing to generate an early phase of herd immunity, before another wave 3 months out.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Went to the store today, and...

It was largely fine.  We went early but the crowds were picking up.  Plenty of fresh foods available.  Shortages on some of the frozen and dry goods.  No toilet paper.  Very few cleaning supplies...which is a good thing.  My wife tends to be an over-buyer anyway so we are usually well stocked.

Also the liquor section had no lines or anything!

There was no chicken in my supermarket this morning and I heard it was the same elsewhere.  Is there a run on chicken with the toilet paper and Purell or is there some other reason?

[skianth16]

I fear that Boston will become so bad that Logan gets shutdown.

Obviously I sincerely hope that I'm wrong.

South Korea had a high infection rate among a religious sect in a large city that didn't seem to transfer out to the broader population on a large scale like you're suggesting. Do you view that to be a noticeably different kind of situation?

[JWags85]

There was no chicken in my supermarket this morning and I heard it was the same elsewhere.  Is there a run on chicken with the toilet paper and Purell or is there some other reason?

Just a stocking up mentality at play. Was at a grocery store in NYC yesterday and the most random things were out of stock while plenty more were in ample supply.  Chicken doesn’t stand out as particularly specific idea to include in a worst case scenario list

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Just a stocking up mentality at play. Was at a grocery store in NYC yesterday and the most random things were out of stock while plenty more were in ample supply.  Chicken doesn’t stand out as particularly specific idea to include in a worst case scenario list

I agree.  I went for the frozen food and soup just to build a supply.  Totally fine. 

The most random crap though is piled sky high in carts.

[🏀]

Just a stocking up mentality at play. Was at a grocery store in NYC yesterday and the most random things were out of stock while plenty more were in ample supply.  Chicken doesn’t stand out as particularly specific idea to include in a worst case scenario list

Stays marginally fresher longer refrigerated.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Yeah I would rather have people stock up now than go out when they are ill.

[MUBurrow]

Re a vaccine - forgive me because I've probably missed something how fast this is moving - but I thought a covid-19 vaccine wouldn't likely be as effective as other vaccines, due to the nature of coronaviruses?  My limited understanding so far has been that coronaviruses are structured more like the common cold, and immunity doesn't stick the way it does even with the annual flu vaccine, let alone vaccines that are effective for multiple years at a time?  I thought studies of people who have been infected have hypothesized that those people could be reinfected in a matter of months or maybe even weeks.  If that's all the immunity you get from recovering from the actual illness, wouldn't that also be the ceiling on how effective a vaccine would be?

[statnik]

The eventual 100'000s I agree with. Much for the reasons you say. As I noted above, my disagreement would be on 100,000's right now.

I estimate around 5k cases right now. But as you note those are spread across the nation, which allows each "concentric circle" to grow independently. Boston is going to get bad fast. How well people are able to distance themselves will determine how much these other "concentric circles" grow, and then ultimately how bad things get.

It's hard for me to believe about 5,000 cases right now.  That's such a miniscule percent, and look at all the celebrities (many celebs have not even been tested) who have it.  For sure Tom Cruise and a couple NBA players.  I'm thinking more NBA players have it than we know right now.  5,000 cases would mean about 1/50000 Americans.  Way too low.

[Hards Alumni]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYTFk34nhoI

Worth a watch.  He obviously doesn't bother looking at what his thumbnails lookl ike haha 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Etlyvt9n_QE

screw it, lets do both for today.

[injuryBug]

It's hard for me to believe about 5,000 cases right now.  That's such a miniscule percent, and look at all the celebrities (many celebs have not even been tested) who have it.  For sure Tom Cruise and a couple NBA players.  I'm thinking more NBA players have it than we know right now.  5,000 cases would mean about 1/50000 Americans.  Way too low.

I would guess if celebs or nba players had it we would hear pretty fast.  I heard several nba teams have been tested with no new cases.  who knows we are all just guessing at this point and i mean everyone is jsut guessing nobody has a clue

[rocket surgeon]

There was no chicken in my supermarket this morning and I heard it was the same elsewhere.  Is there a run on chicken with the toilet paper and Purell or is there some other reason?

 my guess is because it's cheap and you know the old wives tale cure for the cold?  good old fashioned chicken soup

[forgetful]

It's hard for me to believe about 5,000 cases right now.  That's such a miniscule percent, and look at all the celebrities (many celebs have not even been tested) who have it.  For sure Tom Cruise and a couple NBA players.  I'm thinking more NBA players have it than we know right now.  5,000 cases would mean about 1/50000 Americans.  Way too low.

Those are cases of people who travel by air often, and are then moving through airports with infected people often, and are interacting with people more often than a normal person (hand shakes, selfies, etc.).

That's why you are seeing some politicians infected.

[statnik]

Those are cases of people who travel by air often, and are then moving through airports with infected people often, and are interacting with people more often than a normal person (hand shakes, selfies, etc.).

That's why you are seeing some politicians infected.

It's a good point, but not sure if people realize just how minute 1/50000 of the population is to think that's all who currently have the virus.  I have serious doubts.

[MU82]

NC governor just issued executive order closing schools for 2 weeks, effective immediately, and banning gatherings of 100+ people.

The order doesn't include restaurants, shopping malls or retail establishments. So I guess it's a lot more healthy for the public to have 100 people at a restaurant than at, say, a comedy club?

[skianth16]

It's a good point, but not sure if people realize just how minute 1/50000 of the population is to think that's all who currently have the virus.  I have serious doubts.

What examples from other countries would make you think the number/percentage should be higher? Aren't all the percentages extremely low?

[statnik]

What examples from other countries would make you think the number/percentage should be higher? Aren't all the percentages extremely low?

Not 1/50,000 low in the highest affected countries, and I think we're on our way to being one of those highest affected.  Symptoms apparently often don't present for 7-14 days after being infected.

[mu_hilltopper]

A little levity:

[rocket surgeon]

Not 1/50,000 low in the highest affected countries, and I think we're on our way to being one of those highest affected.  Symptoms apparently often don't present for 7-14 days after being infected.

it is actually 5.1(incubation period) days on average

[4everwarriors]

NC governor just issued executive order closing schools for 2 weeks, effective immediately, and banning gatherings of 100+ people.

The order doesn't include restaurants, shopping malls or retail establishments. So I guess it's a lot more healthy for the public to have 100 people at a restaurant than at, say, a comedy club?

Sew, 99 peeps iz ok, hey?