COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[rocket surgeon]

You still think we're getting a vaccine in a couple months?

 good question.  i know at the press conference, they are going to be pushing.  time for a lot of pragmatism

[Hards Alumni]

Two questions/issues I have with this comparison....why is the 5th in US pegged to the 23rd in Italy, what is the significance that links those? And the US is 5.5x the population of Italy, if we're on the same trajectory why wouldn't we be some approximate number of 5x the "equivalent" Italian date?

I think you're expecting too much from numbers, I just thought it was neat.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Two questions/issues I have with this comparison....why is the 5th in US pegged to the 23rd in Italy, what is the significance that links those? And the US is 5.5x the population of Italy, if we're on the same trajectory why wouldn't we be some approximate number of 5x the "equivalent" Italian date?

I was thinking about the letter point when you brought it up earlier.  I think the answer is no, but our peak can be higher.  The virus starts with one and multiplies. 

Conversely though we seem to have three or so community spread hot spot areas.  So it wouldn’t make sense that we don’t have all three on that curve separately. 

[forgetful]

Two questions/issues I have with this comparison....why is the 5th in US pegged to the 23rd in Italy, what is the significance that links those? And the US is 5.5x the population of Italy, if we're on the same trajectory why wouldn't we be some approximate number of 5x the "equivalent" Italian date?

The graphic is showing how infections grow/spread in number. they are pegged to the same dates by equivalent numbers of infections. It shows that we are following Italy's path directly and showing what we can expect each day.

Total population doesn't matter until you get to a point where new "infectable" people become limiting in terms of new hosts. Both countries are far from that point right now, so the population is immaterial.

[Jockey]

Two questions/issues I have with this comparison....why is the 5th in US pegged to the 23rd in Italy, what is the significance that links those? And the US is 5.5x the population of Italy, if we're on the same trajectory why wouldn't we be some approximate number of 5x the "equivalent" Italian date?

Their issues started earlier, so the 23rd of March (for them) and the 5th of April (for us) were at the same point in time coronavirus-wise.

[Marquette Gyros]

Best Twitter accounts to follow for up-to-date insights? Some great links posted in this thread already.

(By the way, it’s a shortfall in their algorithm that the most liked, most relevant, most insightful content on such a wide-ranging topic can’t be found via hashtags, search etc.)

[jesmu84]

good question.  i know at the press conference, they are going to be pushing.  time for a lot of pragmatism

Going to be pushing? Like pushing a website google knows nothing about?

Regardless, vaccines don't get made in that timeline

[MU82]

Just got home after spending the last 2 weeks on the road.

My wife and I first drove to St. Pete (Fla) to stay a few nights with my cousins who live down there. Had a great time in what was my first extended stay in that part of the metro area after many, many trips to Tampa. They lived within walking distance of the beach and the area with restaurants and bars. St. Pete was alive with activity every time we went out.

On March 1, we and another couple (including my best friend from my MU days) set sail on a Norwegian cruise to the Caribbean. We thought about not going but the virus hadn't reached crisis stage yet in the U.S., so we went. Had a wonderful vacation. They did just about everything they could to keep the ship sanitized. The boat was sold out, some 2500 passengers. If you didn't know there was such a thing as COVID-19, you never would have guessed it was an issue at all.

We got back to Tampa on March 8 (this past Sunday). By this time, the virus was being taken much more seriously by U.S. officials. We dropped our wives off at the airport for them to fly home; we were staying an extra 5 days to golf, go to spring training games, etc. When we got to our hotel, we turned on the TV just in time to hear a State Dept. say something along the lines of: "Whatever you do ... do NOT get on a cruise ship." We could only laugh.

When I woke up Tuesday morning, I had a sore throat and a runny nose. I immediately went to my computer to look up the difference between a cold and the coronavirus. I did not have a dry cough, did not have a fever, and did not have shortness of breath, so I was pretty sure I only had a cold. I told my wife, who is a nurse, and she was quite sure it was only a cold. Sure enough, it was pretty much gone by Thursday.

We went to a game at Steinbrenner Field -- totally sold out. Had a lot of fun. Yesterday, we went to Clearwater Beach. It was packed with spring breakers, families, etc. Restaurants had long waits. Stores were filled with shoppers. Not a single person there seemed the least bit worried.

Drove my friend to the airport today and then made the long drive home to Charlotte.

I am not trying to downplay COVID-19. I feel fortunate that we did not get it -- and extremely fortunate that our boat wasn't quarantined. I'm just relaying real-world observations and experiences.

It was surreal to sit in a sports bar yesterday watching the BET only to see the game stopped and everything called off. These are crazy times.

Grateful to be home again, safe, sound and healthy!

[forgetful]

Notes from a recent (3/10) UCSF panel:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/notes-from-ucsf-expert-panel-march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-/

Meant to say this earlier, but Eldon, thanks for a great information post today. Great stuff summarizing information out of UCSF.

[Sir Lawrence]

Reading MU82’s recent experience prompts me to wonder, which of us will get it first?  My take from this thread is that most of us, if not all, will become infected.  No one has immunity.  Hope to hear straight forward testimony.

Gesundheit. 

[🏀]

Reading MU82’s recent experience prompts me to wonder, which of us will get it first?  My take from this thread is that most of us, if not all, will become infected.  No one has immunity.  Hope to hear straight forward testimony.

Gesundheit. 

I’m not allowed into work Monday since going to Vegas.

[Lennys Tap]

Reading MU82’s recent experience prompts me to wonder, which of us will get it first?  My take from this thread is that most of us, if not all, will become infected.  No one has immunity.  Hope to hear straight forward testimony.

Gesundheit.

Obviously this is serious, serious stuff, but I doubt MOST of us will become infected and I really, really doubt that ALL of us will. If we all become infected this country will go through a depression that will make the 30s seem like the good old days.

[jesmu84]

Obviously this is serious, serious stuff, but I doubt MOST of us will become infected and I really, really doubt that ALL of us will. If we all become infected this country will go through a depression that will make the 30s seem like the good old days.

I'm betting most of us do get infected. But the great majority of those won't ever officially know they were infected

[Sir Lawrence]

I'm betting most of us do get infected. But the great majority of those won't ever officially know they were infected

This is what I believe.   

[Lennys Tap]

I'm betting most of us do get infected. But the great majority of those won't ever officially know they were infected

That’s certainly a possibility I’ve considered - and if true I would actually be encouraged (that many would have no or minor symptoms)

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Reading MU82’s recent experience prompts me to wonder, which of us will get it first?  My take from this thread is that most of us, if not all, will become infected.  No one has immunity.  Hope to hear straight forward testimony.

Gesundheit.

1 month of moderator privileges for the first scooper to fall sick and live to post about it?

[forgetful]

That’s certainly a possibility I’ve considered - and if true I would actually be encouraged (that many would have no or minor symptoms)

I certainly hope that is correct. But my research on circulation of other coronaviruses, and individuals with no symptoms, suggests that those with no symptoms that would otherwise go undiagnosed is around 10-40% of all cases. That's in coronaviruses that have been circulated for 100's or 1000's of years in humans, and some immunity has been achieved.

So it would be unheard of for the majority of cases to be missed because of being asymptomatic.

[Hards Alumni]

Best Twitter accounts to follow for up-to-date insights? Some great links posted in this thread already.

(By the way, it’s a shortfall in their algorithm that the most liked, most relevant, most insightful content on such a wide-ranging topic can’t be found via hashtags, search etc.)

https://twitter.com/BNODesk

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD

best two, IMO

[rocket surgeon]

Going to be pushing? Like pushing a website google knows nothing about?

Regardless, vaccines don't get made in that timeline

some of the potential vaccine(s) are already made, it's the testing part that usually takes more time.  what they are probably willing to do is lower some of the standards.  but now i'm getting into territory i don't know enough about.  forget probably knows more about this part.  what i'm guessing is that once the testing reaches a certain point, efficacy/side effects or risk/reward, then they may allow it in certain cases whereas they normally would not.  for example, if someone is ill to the point their life is at risk if nothing is done, then allow for administration.  i'm just trying to surmise if you will.  i know this may sound macabre, but if the virus becomes more morbid and potentially more fatal, what are our better options? 

[MU82]

I’m not allowed into work Monday since going to Vegas.

A couple days ago, my wife's hospital system required anybody who traveled to get tested and, if necessary, barred from work for as long as it takes. She didn't have to because she got back before that policy went into place, but she wouldn't have tested positive anyway - no symptoms since she got home, and it's been nearly a week.

Reading MU82’s recent experience prompts me to wonder, which of us will get it first?  My take from this thread is that most of us, if not all, will become infected.

I have to agree with Lenny that this seems like an overstatement, but maybe you'll be right ... though not sure how it will be proven if most cases aren't serious and most folks don't even get tested.

As Lenny said, though, I do take it seriously. If I sounded a little flip in some of my account, I certainly didn't mean to. I am extremely grateful that my wife and I seem to have completed our travels without having gotten the virus. Even more grateful that my kids - including my daughter, who lives in the Seattle-area county that has become kind of U.S. ground zero for COVID-19 - are OK so far.

[forgetful]

some of the potential vaccine(s) are already made, it's the testing part that usually takes more time.  what they are probably willing to do is lower some of the standards.  but now i'm getting into territory i don't know enough about.  forget probably knows more about this part.  what i'm guessing is that once the testing reaches a certain point, efficacy/side effects or risk/reward, then they may allow it in certain cases whereas they normally would not.  for example, if someone is ill to the point their life is at risk if nothing is done, then allow for administration.  i'm just trying to surmise if you will.  i know this may sound macabre, but if the virus becomes more morbid and potentially more fatal, what are our better options?

I agree that they would likely relax some of the standards, which could accelerate it slightly, but that comes with a different risk.

If a person dies after being administered the vaccine, even if they were at risk from other disease, they then have to definitively prove that the vaccine did not play a part in that death. All testing has to cease until that is complete, and it can take forever.

Some companies with extremely efficacious cancer treatments went bankrupt and their drugs vanquished, because they rushed the testing and someone with massive co-morbidities died. The cost and time to get back on track was just too much. Most companies will be reluctant to take such a risk.

I do think we'll see vaccines emerge faster than ever, but even then, scaling this up to millions or billions of dosages is non-trivial and will take some time. I don't see it being possible to be done in less than 12 months.

I'm not certain we need it to come faster though. The big window of danger is in this next 1-2 months. If we don't get flooded with patients during that window, we have some time to develop a vaccine.

[rocket surgeon]

Obviously this is serious, serious stuff, but I doubt MOST of us will become infected and I really, really doubt that ALL of us will. If we all become infected this country will go through a depression that will make the 30s seem like the good old days.

we all have immune systems-some stronger than others.  practising safe hygiene, don't smoke, drink to excess(lowers immune system) eat properly, exercise, etc the levels of infectivity vary accordingly.  many may get the virus unknowingly, but still pass it on.  again, the safe practises need to be a 2 way street regardless if one is symptomatic or not.  especially people in the health field, coming into more direct contact with people.  as 4ever and i stick our fingers(gloved and washed hands of course) right into one of the main portals of entry, we need to be extra cautious.  between seeing hygiene patients for exams along with my own patients, the number of people potentially infected and then, well, do the math.  that could really be nasty. 

[Hards Alumni]

Obviously this is serious, serious stuff, but I doubt MOST of us will become infected and I really, really doubt that ALL of us will. If we all become infected this country will go through a depression that will make the 30s seem like the good old days.

I don't know what you could possibly be basing this on.

[Hards Alumni]

1 month of moderator privileges for the first scooper to fall sick and live to post about it?

When I get it, I'll stay current here.

[Hards Alumni]

some of the potential vaccine(s) are already made, it's the testing part that usually takes more time.  what they are probably willing to do is lower some of the standards.  but now i'm getting into territory i don't know enough about.  forget probably knows more about this part.  what i'm guessing is that once the testing reaches a certain point, efficacy/side effects or risk/reward, then they may allow it in certain cases whereas they normally would not.  for example, if someone is ill to the point their life is at risk if nothing is done, then allow for administration.  i'm just trying to surmise if you will.  i know this may sound macabre, but if the virus becomes more morbid and potentially more fatal, what are our better options?

They can't fast track them, its extremely dangerous.  I used to do GMP testing at a lab.

edit:  Well, I guess they could, but the blowback on mistakes would be... uhhh... real bad.