Softest bubble in a decade?

[tower912]

I have started and stopped reading this thread 2-3 times in the last couple hours.  I wasn't going to post anything but I can't help it.  Some of you guys absolutely suck the life out of something that is supposed to fun.  I used to think of this board as a place to read about something I love, MU basketball.  For the last three weeks, more often that not, I have found myself being pissed off as I close my browser after reading this board.  How is that possible considering the fact that that time period coincides with a great stretch of basketball most people around here didn't think we would see this year.

I swear, sometimes I think my nine year old is more mature that a good portion of the posters on this board.  Some of you act like a bunch of little girls.

Uuuuggggghhhh, another visit to MUScoop being pissed as I close my browser!

Great post.   I'm actually visiting the scout board more and thinking that it is more fun to read murf than it is some of the weak passive aggressive crap from some abe-holes on this board.    Some whom I have enjoyed reading and defending over the years have become painful, redundant parodies of themelves during thissurprising gift of an overachieving season.     Hopefully, it isjust a phase.   

[NavinRJohnson]

I'm in the camp that says the term soft bubble is such a stupid term. You cant compare teams from one year to another with any sort of hard number (sorry stats geeks).

This is 100% on the money. There is no soft bubble or hard bubble. There is only the bubble. What happened in the last 10 years has absolutely nothing to do with this season. Saying MU is lucky to be bad in a year when everyone else is bad is just stupid. If everyone else is bad, then I guess MU isn't bad at all, they are just like everyone else. Just a ridiculous and meaningless conversation/argument.

[thekahoona]

buzz is a good coach and motivator.
buzz caught a lucky break in the decreased strength of the competition this year.

the two statements are NOT mutually exclusive.

in fact, one can argue that a good coach/motivator knows how to take advantage of a lucky break.

get off chico's back.

[Ready2Fly]

I agree completely.  That's why our timing is fortunate.  In 10 years, no one will know it was such a bad year for college hoops.  My question to Palm was more of a historical question as he and I have followed the tournament for many years and exchanged many communications in the past.

I couldn't recall a softer bubble than this year and wanted to bounce that off him to see if he agreed.

Proof that this post serves two purposes and two purposes only, and it comes straight from the horse's mouth:

1.) So Chicos can have "evidence" later on that Buzz caught a lucky break if MU makes the tournament.

And really Chicos, you and Palm are SO UNIQUE that you "follow the tournament?"  Doesn't that include about 50%+ of the U.S. population?

2.) That Chicos can brag like an eight year old that he has exchanged "many communications" with a college basketball "expert."

In the first post you make it seem like you and Palm are buddies, like he calls you up to bounce ideas off you for columns.  Then you backed off a bit to say you have exchanged "many communications in the past" (a.k.a. you e-mail him, and he responds, like I'm sure he would respond to any one of us).  It's laughably insecure.  In the immortal words of Jim Carrey, "You are one pathetic LOSER... no offense."

[Ready2Fly]

As he says in his Feb 21st article, one of the weakest at-large fields he can ever remember.  http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/collegebasketball-projecting-the-field

Then WHY DIDN'T YOU JUST POST THAT ARTICLE instead of acting like you had some original thought, called up Palm, and had a philosophical debate with your great friend in which he ultimately agreed with you?  Are you really that self-absorbed???

[NersEllenson]

 The Big East is basically the Big East again this year - not too much different than last year's record of 4 Big East teams in the Elite 8..maybe not quite as strong but we'll see how it plays out.  Furthermore, our non-conference schedule this year with Florida State, Xavier, Michigan, was just as tough as in years past.

Lastly, I don't care of Jerry Freakin' Palm eats, sleeps, or sh$ts college basketball, to try to compare the caliber and quality of college basketball year to year based on statistics and observation is ridiculous.  As Lenny's Tap pointed out, Roy Williams has 7 McDonald's All American's and can't beat anyone.  So, are we going to say that the talent coming out of High School's isn't as good anymore - thus leading to poor quality in Men's CBB?  

Bottom line MU has singificantly exceeded expectations this year - even UW fans acknowedge that, and some are even more complimentary than our "realist" fans here - Chico, Mu84, Warrior 79 and Burrows.  

[Skatastrophy]

Then WHY DIDN'T YOU JUST POST THAT ARTICLE instead of acting like you had some original thought, called up Palm, and had a philosophical debate with your great friend in which he ultimately agreed with you?  Are you really that self-absorbed???

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Lastly, I don't care of Jerry Freakin' Palm eats, sleeps, or sh$ts college basketball, to try to compare the caliber and quality of college basketball year to year based on statistics and observation is ridiculous.  As Lenny's Tap pointed out, Roy Williams has 7 McDonald's All American's and can't beat anyone.  So, are we going to say that the talent coming out of High School's isn't as good anymore - thus leading to poor quality in Men's CBB?  

To be fair, in another thread, (http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=18267.75) several posters engaged in speculating where the team would be without Buzz Williams as the coach the past 2 seasons.

That's basically the same type (probably even less scientific) of speculation and analysis that Jerry Palm is doing.

Why hate on Jerry Palm?

[NersEllenson]

And to reiterate the greater implication of getting so carried away is something that I can't stress enough.  When the greater field of college basketball rebounds next year, and MU finds itself in the same (or worse) position its in now, the people storming the quad with torches and pitchforks in Buzz's name will be ironically the most outraged.  All that is being pointed out here is that MU's season doesn't exist in a vacuum.

Thank you for being a "realist" and feeling a compelling need to reign in the enthusiasm of those of us who are "so carried away" with this year's team.  I will now step back from the ledge should MU lose more games as we move forward.  Furthermore, I will now refrain from being outraged next season season when MU finds itself in the same or worse position than we are in this year.  What you don't seem to get is many of us are not bandwagon, knee-jerk reacting, fans.  I don't expect National Championships from MU.  Consistent NCAA appearances, with occasional Sweet 16 runs, and maybe an Elite Eight/Final four every decade is fine by me.  We are not UNC, Kansas, Duke, Kentucky...and that's just me being a realist, and having realistic expectations and perceptions of our program.

[NersEllenson]

To be fair, in another thread, (http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=18267.75) several posters engaged in speculating where the team would be without Buzz Williams as the coach the past 2 seasons.

That's basically the same type (probably even less scientific) of speculation and analysis that Jerry Palm is doing.

Why hate on Jerry Palm?

I'm basically hating on Chico's for starting this thread and using Palm as his source to try to back up his argument.  Palm may be all things college basketball, but his belief that this is a down year in college basketball, is just that - an opinion, belief, subjective.  Certainly he's entitled to share his view, and the fact Chico's feels the same way as Palm is fine.  I simply disagree with Chicos assertion that this year's team is "lucky."  Actually, with a little better luck we'd be 21-5, ranked about 12 in the country.  The problem for Chico's is that he was predicting doom/gloom for MU prior to the season beginning - now he has to reverse course and grasp at straws to try to justify MU's performance this year.

[damuts222]

 How do we know that it is a soft bubble this year??

 Just because teams that we are accustomed to seeing in the dance year in and year out won't be dancing doesn't mean that the teams that we rarely see on national television aren't as good. I think a lot of people are claiming that it is a "soft bubble" because they don't know jack squat about many of the teams from the A-10, the Mountain West, and other such conferences, myself included. Utah State almost beat us last year..remember.

 People claim its a "soft bubble" because we all only see games on national TV of teams from major conferences. Granted many teams from smaller conferences don't play the schedules we are accustomed to playing in the Big East, yet many teams don't want to play teams from the A-10 in fear of losing to them. I expect this tournament to be a crap shoot and expect some teams we don't know much about to do more than what the "experts" expect. When it comes to the tournament there are no "experts" anything can happen, thats what makes it great.

[MDMU04]

I'm basically hating on Chico's for starting this thread and using Palm as his source to try to back up his argument.

If this is something that is frowned upon here, then please explain to me the purpose of an internet discussion board.

[MUBurrow]

BCS conferences get the best players.  When those teams are down by wide margins across the country, and give bids to small conferences instead of each other, that represents a decline in the overall talent levels of the higher echelon of teams.  Next season, when UNC uses all these recruits and is a top 10 team, ditto UCLA, the overall quality of basketball will rise.  Its a random coincidence that right now the teams with the top individual talent are struggling largely because of age.  The result is that the overall quality of play by teams on the NCAA bubble is less than if those teams were pushing teams such as Pac-10s Cal or ACC's Va Tech/Maryland to the bubble, and in turn the A-10 teams out.

And as for Ners again throwing a Bush "with us or against us out there" as seems to be his prerogative, I'm saying that there's a good chance a better MU team doesn't make the tournament next year.  If that were to occur, it is still entirely possible that the team MU fields next season will be qualitatively better than this years squad.  to ignore the greater college basketball landscape is to undermine some of your efforts at home.  This team might take a big step forward next year while having worse results.  Funny how an encouraging thought can be construed to be anti-MU because it is forward looking, as opposed to simply exultation for what is going on today.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I'm basically hating on Chico's for starting this thread and using Palm as his source to try to back up his argument.  Palm may be all things college basketball, but his belief that this is a down year in college basketball, is just that - an opinion, belief, subjective.  Certainly he's entitled to share his view, and the fact Chico's feels the same way as Palm is fine.  I simply disagree with Chicos assertion that this year's team is "lucky."  Actually, with a little better luck we'd be 21-5, ranked about 12 in the country.  The problem for Chico's is that he was predicting doom/gloom for MU prior to the season beginning - now he has to reverse course and grasp at straws to try to justify MU's performance this year.

That's fine. Let 'er rip. I'm actually inclined to agree with you about the "bubble".

But, several people around here morph threads to meet their own agendas and beliefs. In fact, all of us do it.

The thread I alluded to started about Fr. Wild and Buzz, and then morphed into Crean vs Buzz. The thread started with some analysis and discussion, but headed quickly towards the "party lines" like normal.

If you are going to get up on the soapbox and rip Chico's for posting things to meet his "agenda", you've got a long line of posters that you're going to have to start blasting. I'm cool with that if you want to go that way.

Right now it just seems like you are just looking for stuff to be mad at Chico's for simply because you don't like what he is saying.

Chico's posts are article by Jerry Palm, and the knee-jerk reaction is to rip his sources because Chico's has some sort of "secret agenda" against Buzz.

[Kramerica]

I'm basically hating on Chico's for starting this thread and using Palm as his source to try to back up his argument.  Palm may be all things college basketball, but his belief that this is a down year in college basketball, is just that - an opinion, belief, subjective.  Certainly he's entitled to share his view, and the fact Chico's feels the same way as Palm is fine.  I simply disagree with Chicos assertion that this year's team is "lucky."  Actually, with a little better luck we'd be 21-5, ranked about 12 in the country.  The problem for Chico's is that he was predicting doom/gloom for MU prior to the season beginning - now he has to reverse course and grasp at straws to try to justify MU's performance this year.

First of all there was never a reference to being lucky, and if there was it must have gotten lost in all of the f'ing bluster that has dominated this thread.  Second of all, most people on this board were doubting our chances to make the tournament before the season including almost all the people on Cracked Sidewalks.  And its realistic to believe that several factors have gone into our performance this year and our chances to be on the bubble.  One of those factors might be that there are a lot of down conferences this year, including the ACC, Pac 10 and Big 10. I don't see why bringing this up somehow belittles Buzz's performance or the how this team is overacheiving, which to be honest they are. 

[NavinRJohnson]

Apparently college basketball isn't quite as down as it appears...

It's funny how many people bag on ISU, I have a feeling you'll see that they will be pretty good this year, better than Marquette most likely.

They started three sophomores and a freshman last year...all four are back plus they add folks like Scott off the bench.  This is a team that will be fighting for a NCAA berth this season, yet a really sharp poster here thinks they are going to be terrible (all while he calls most other posters ignorant of basketball).  You have to wonder what he really knows (not you Pakuni)

ISU has lost 9 of 10 and can't even get above .500 in this sad state of affairs. Not only are they not fighting for and NCAA berth, they aren't even going to get a CBI berth despite having dead eye Scott Christopherson who's 3-pt percentage would rank 5th on MU's current team. So much for needing him to help us beat a zone, huh? Apparently the bubble is softer for some teams than it is others.

Could there be any more irony in this comment...

yet a really sharp poster here thinks they are going to be terrible (all while he calls most other posters ignorant of basketball).  You have to wonder what he really knows

[NersEllenson]

BCS conferences get the best players.  When those teams are down by wide margins across the country, and give bids to small conferences instead of each other, that represents a decline in the overall talent levels of the higher echelon of teams.  Next season, when UNC uses all these recruits and is a top 10 team, ditto UCLA, the overall quality of basketball will rise.  Its a random coincidence that right now the teams with the top individual talent are struggling largely because of age.  The result is that the overall quality of play by teams on the NCAA bubble is less than if those teams were pushing teams such as Pac-10s Cal or ACC's Va Tech/Maryland to the bubble, and in turn the A-10 teams out.

And as for Ners again throwing a Bush "with us or against us out there" as seems to be his prerogative, I'm saying that there's a good chance a better MU team doesn't make the tournament next year.  If that were to occur, it is still entirely possible that the team MU fields next season will be qualitatively better than this years squad.  to ignore the greater college basketball landscape is to undermine some of your efforts at home.  This team might take a big step forward next year while having worse results.  Funny how an encouraging thought can be construed to be anti-MU because it is forward looking, as opposed to simply exultation for what is going on today.

You argument is circular at best -stating that the BCS teams get the best talent, yet because that talent is young this year (not all BCS teams are playing with young talent this year - overbroad analysis), it means the quality of basketball being played by more experienced squads isn't as good in year's past??  It doesn't surprise me you try to politicize this discussion with the Bush analogy.  You think/write like a politician.  You most definitely are a visionary.  Thank you for the forward looking insight. And you speak of me having a prerogative?? What is your real opinion?  This team MIGHT take a big step forward next year, while having worse results?  I'll go on record and say next year's team makes the NCAA.  Period. Regardless of if the other BCS conference schools players eventually are "aged" enough to be good again - which will make next year's bubble be a hard bubble, instead of soft.

[mu-rara]

I don't give a crap about the soft bubble.   

Practically nobody would have predicted that MU is in the hunt for an NCAA bid at the beginning of the season.  I am ecstatic, but I would have questioned the sanity of anyone who predicted it.

Buzz needs to get a large share of the credit. 

Chicos, I am one of your compadres in the political arena, but man....give these thinly veiled shots at Buzz a rest

[NersEllenson]

First of all there was never a reference to being lucky, and if there was it must have gotten lost in all of the f'ing bluster that has dominated this thread.  Second of all, most people on this board were doubting our chances to make the tournament before the season including almost all the people on Cracked Sidewalks.  And its realistic to believe that several factors have gone into our performance this year and our chances to be on the bubble.  One of those factors might be that there are a lot of down conferences this year, including the ACC, Pac 10 and Big 10. I don't see why bringing this up somehow belittles Buzz's performance or the how this team is overacheiving, which to be honest they are. 

I definitely agree with your assesment that this year's team is overachieving.  I felt this statement of Chicos implied luck:  "We picked a very good year to have a "rebuilding" year.  Timing is everything."  Lastly, if this team finishes with 10 or 11 Big East wins, MU making the NCAA has nothing to do with being lucky that other conferences are down this year.  Keep in mind if not for a few very unfortunate late game missed free throws, and other teams hitting shots - MU beats WVU, DePaul, and probably Villanova 1 of 2 times...which puts us at 11-3, instead of 8-6.  Not that such hypothetical really matters - just pointing out that with a little better luck..MU isn't even part of the Bubble discussion.

[tower912]

Win 3 out of 4 and the soft bubble talk is for others to worry about.   20 wins with 11 in-conference usually gets a school from a BCS conference in.  

[Pakuni]

 Its a random coincidence that right now the teams with the top individual talent are struggling largely because of age.

I'm curious ... how do you know this?
Have you studied the rosters of BCS programs this year and years past to determine that in 2010 they are, by and large, younger? If so, I'd love to see those numbers.
Or are you just taking one or two traditionally good teams - say, UCLA and UNC - and arguing that youth is holding them back?
If so, where was this argument when a bunch of freshman and sophomores led UCLA to back-to-back Final Fours a few years back?
Or when a freshman and sophomore dominated UNC team spent much of the season in the top five in 2006-07?
Or when a Florida team that started four sophomores won the championship in 2006?Why isn't youth killing Kentucky this year?

Just wondering.

[Ready2Fly]

http://www.tv.com/sports/softest-ncaa-bubble-in-a-decade/topic/73523-1009265/msgs.html

I found empirical proof that 2008 was IN FACT the softest bubble in a decade!  I just spoke with my super-friend harpier, and he agreed!  He stated, and I quote, "There isn't a season in recent memory with such a sprawling mediocre pack of bubble contenders entering the final week of the regular season."  And he was talking about 2008, not 2010!

[thatman32]

I posted this in another thread but I feel like posting it here since this thread is 'cool':

Chicos just wants to justify why Brent Williams is having an ok year this year.  Marquette isn't that good its just that other teams clearly suck(since none of you are smart enough to figure this out).  Since everybody else sucks and MU is tournament caliber you then change the topic and bring up this 'Soft Bubble' garbage.  Furthermore, if MU doesn't make the tournament he will bring up the 'soft bubble' and talk about how the team underachieved and Williams is clearly over his head. 

I also like how he brings up history since history is great guide when your talking about empiricism.  Lets talk about the past and some useless statistics and say it means something.

Since your points are stupid you need to bring this up in order to change the topic!
 
 

[MUBurrow]

okay, important related question to try to illustrate my point.  which team would win in a game: this years MU team or the 2007 MU team that lost to Michigan State?

 The point is that the two squads are likely to get similar, if not identical seeds.  I don't think this teams quality of play is that of the team of 2007.  The fact that, in my opinion, you could say that looking across the board for the bubble teams this year, represents what has been termed a soft bubble.

And this will be my last response to the personal attack from Ners - if we want to have it out, we should do it with PMs and not dominate the board.  The basketball being played by experienced mid major squads is EXACTLY as good as in the past (there are so many of them, the quality stays relatively constant even though the teams change [George Mason, Richmond, St Marys, Creighton, etc etc] ) However because the quality from the major conferences is down (Pac 10, ACC) the overall quality of the bubble is watered down, resulting in more of those mid major teams getting in than when superior BCS teams would be in the hunt.

[groove]

I want to go back to the days of no bubble, when only conference champions made the tourney. There's nothing worse that 8th or 9th place teams whining about not making the tournament.