The Future of Cities

[Skatastrophy]

Indiana as a state actually has been booming for some time. They attracted a Toyota plant near Vincennes, have wildly successful pharmaceutical plans and have a very pro-business climate. Gary/Lake County, Muncie and Seymour have been hurting but the state as a whole is prosperous. It's government is conservative and runs a surplus year in and year out.

Potential investors in property, plant and equipment don't look at the state, hold their nose and wonder how they are going to be soaked to pay off a $300 billion-plus pension shortfall.

Indiana receives $1.37 in federal funding for every tax dollar paid, which makes up 33% of state revenues. Sounds like socialism to me.

[Pakuni]

dgies,

Thanks for the good conversation starter. You make some excellent points. But I do have to quibble with a few (because, of course I do).

1. I agree that the pension shortfall is a significant issue but it's a) not unique to Illinois,  b) not as dire as often portrayed (no, the state's not going bankrupt) and c) not impacting corporate relocations as you suggest and c)
In fact, as I posted earlier, Chicago for 10 straight years has led the nation in corporate relocations and expansions, despite these very well publicized issues.
As for Pat Quinn ... he proposed a pension fix that he knew would fail - because it was clearly unconstitutional - to make it appear as if he tried something and then could wash his hands of it. Proposing legislation that's sure to fail doesn't deserve credit. It was a profile in political cowardice. All Quinn did was kick the can down the road.
Though, I admit, he did less damage than Bruce Rauner, whose sole solution was to sit on the state budget for two years - far deepening the crisis while creating new ones - in a doomed-from-the-start attempt to bust the unions.

2. Agree.

3. Agree 99%. Illinois has way too many local governments, though in reality it's a bigger issue downstate with single-school districts and the like, than it is with urban townships. Where you're wrong is with the Bears. What's happening there is very much about the team trying to use its leverage to screw over the school districts and other local governments. That they want the property's assessment frozen at its current level (pre-$5 billion redevelopment) for the next 40 years  - 40 years! - is madness and the school districts and municipalities would be doing their existing taxpayers a huge disservice to not to push back against that. The need for government services to that property is going to rise exponentially, but the Bears are arguing they should pay no more for those (via property taxes) than they would for a vacant piece of land.

4. This is all sounds well and good, but in the real world it's easier said than done. And, frankly, pretty misleading. Their are literally thousands of Chicagoans involved in anti-violence initiatives across the city. Your implication that they sit back and take it is plainly wrong.
But beyond that, saying they should "rise up and do something about it" is a fine platitude, but what does that mean. What are some actionable steps you suggest?

[dgies9156]

dgies,

Thanks for the good conversation starter. You make some excellent points. But I do have to quibble with a few (because, of course I do).

1. I agree that the pension shortfall is a significant issue but it's a) not unique to Illinois,  b) not as dire as often portrayed (no, the state's not going bankrupt) and c) not impacting corporate relocations as you suggest and c)
In fact, as I posted earlier, Chicago for 10 straight years has led the nation in corporate relocations and expansions, despite these very well publicized issues.
As for Pat Quinn ... he proposed a pension fix that he knew would fail - because it was clearly unconstitutional - to make it appear as if he tried something and then could wash his hands of it. Proposing legislation that's sure to fail doesn't deserve credit. It was a profile in political cowardice. All Quinn did was kick the can down the road.
Though, I admit, he did less damage than Bruce Rauner, whose sole solution was to sit on the state budget for two years - far deepening the crisis while creating new ones - in a doomed-from-the-start attempt to bust the unions.

2. Agree.

3. Agree 99%. Illinois has way too many local governments, though in reality it's a bigger issue downstate with single-school districts and the like, than it is with urban townships. Where you're wrong is with the Bears. What's happening there is very much about the team trying to use its leverage to screw over the school districts and other local governments. That they want the property's assessment frozen at its current level (pre-$5 billion redevelopment) for the next 40 years  - 40 years! - is madness and the school districts and municipalities would be doing their existing taxpayers a huge disservice to not to push back against that. The need for government services to that property is going to rise exponentially, but the Bears are arguing they should pay no more for those (via property taxes) than they would for a vacant piece of land.

4. This is all sounds well and good, but in the real world it's easier said than done. And, frankly, pretty misleading. Their are literally thousands of Chicagoans involved in anti-violence initiatives across the city. Your implication that they sit back and take it is plainly wrong.
But beyond that, saying they should "rise up and do something about it" is a fine platitude, but what does that mean. What are some actionable steps you suggest?

Thank you Brother Pakuni.

A couple of thoughts in response:

1) You are right, it's not unique to Illinois. But states with the same problem are facing problems with investment. I'm curious as to how you think the matter will be resolved. Do you expect the federal government to bail Illinois and like states out? Possible but you get to states without the problem and this will be a mess.

2) This is idealistic and I admittedly am a Republican, but it needs to happen to ensure equality of opportunity.

3) As to the Bears, both sides are leveraging their position. Having fought tax assessments and valuations for 12 years, I tend to side with the Bears because of personal experience, but I appreciate your position.

4) About 70 years ago, the same thing was said about segregation in this country. Then a true leader in Doctor King stepped up and the country took heed of the inequality and anti-American nature of segregation. We changed. What it means is that there needs to be a grass-roots commitment to change. Demand more from your schools, just like Chicago did in the 1960s when they demanded the end to Willis Wagons and neighborhood apartheid. Stand up and if nothing else do what Curtis Silwa and the Guardian Angels did in New York, walk the streets and protect the innocent. Demand that people who are illegally in possession of a weapon be sent to prison. Expect your children to be home at night. Period.

That's a start. It begins in the neighborhoods and works out. Not vice versa.

[MU82]

Indiana as a state actually has been booming for some time.

Indiana's population growth has all but stalled -- up 0.29% in 2022, up 0.36% in 2021, etc. And apparently that's all that matters in determining that Marquette is doomed.

[Hards Alumni]

https://www.wpr.org/tourism-counties-rural-wisconsin-population-growth-migration

An excellent article

[lawdog77]

Indiana receives $1.37 in federal funding for every tax dollar paid, which makes up 33% of state revenues. Sounds like socialism to me.

Source?

Here's what I found:
https://www.moneygeek.com/living/states-most-reliant-federal-government/

[dgies9156]

https://www.wpr.org/tourism-counties-rural-wisconsin-population-growth-migration

An excellent article

My parents did exactly what the article suggests -- migrated from Chicago to Douglas County in 1991.

That said, the article is misleading. When you start from a very low base, which most of those counties do, a small gain begets a large percentage gain. The ability to sustain that over the next decade is key.

The big problem in some of those counties is access to geriatric medical care. That became a real issue for my Dad as he hit his late 70s. Fortunately Superior and Duluth were not far away but in time, he had to move to Duluth from rural Douglas County because of distance. Hayward, Bayfield and Minocqua are even worse.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Source?

Here's what I found:
https://www.moneygeek.com/living/states-most-reliant-federal-government/

I am way too lazy to dig into what goes in to "Dependency Score". Strikes me as odd, though, that Rhode Island is ranked 20th despite only getting 77 cents on the dollar back (i.e., they are a giver, not a taker).

Other than that, I bet the correlation is extremely high with states that are "rural"...which is also a pretty good proxy for states that vote red.

[dgies9156]

I am way too lazy to dig into what goes in to "Dependency Score". Strikes me as odd, though, that Rhode Island is ranked 20th despite only getting 77 cents on the dollar back (i.e., they are a giver, not a taker).

Other than that, I bet the correlation is extremely high with states that are "rural"...which is also a pretty good proxy for states that vote red.

This whole thing is sort of nonsense. Here's why:

1) The government has to do certain things. Defense is one -- and most of the bases to defend our country are along the coast. The Air Force has bases in places that have all weather flying conditions, like New Mexico and Arizona. Ft. Campbell, Ft. Benning, Ft. Hood and other places have been there forever.

2) Highways -- States like Illinois, Texas, California, Florida, Michigan have thousands and thousands of miles of federal highways. They're essential to move the nation. Yeah, Illinois get more highway miles than say Rhode Island, but do you really want to leave maintenance funding of Illinois highways to the Illinois legislature? I hope not.

3) Regulation -- Regulatory offices are in large cities. The SEC is in NYC and Washington. They're also where there is need. Do we want oilfield regulators in Minnesota? I hope not!

4) Boonedoogles -- Can we say S-o-l-y-n-d-r-a ? Those go in politically well-connected states.

If Illinois gets 64 cents backs on each dollar of federal spending, it's probably because the state has only major military bases -- Scott Air Force Base near St. Louis and Great Lakes Naval Training Center. Both probably should be closed and moved to a coastal community. Military component expenditures probably followed the state's manufacturing to other states.

Gang, one of the many reasons why Amtrak is a complete and total clusterf**k is that its routes were designed to pass through as many Congressional districts as possible and that led to some weird routings and trains that simply shouldn't exist, like most of the long distance network.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Sometimes you make sense, dgies, and other times you make posts like this that have no basis in fact and then gratuitously throw in a nonsense point like Solyndra. It's a Friday leading into a long holiday weekend so I'll chalk it up to day drinking.

[Not A Serious Person]

Good story about how incredibly difficult it is to convert office buildings to housing units (rentals or condos). Easy to say this is the solution, incredibly hard to make it happen.

July 4, 2023
American Cities Have a Conversion Problem, and It’s Not Just Offices
Piles of regulations, or “kludge,” and a culture of “no” are limiting the ability to turn building blocks into something new.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/upshot/american-cities-office-conversion.html

The cumulative effect today, if you want to turn an office into an apartment, or even turn your back porch into an enclosed home office? The building code says no. Or the zoning does. Or the neighbors do. Or a phrase in a decades-old state law does. Or the politicians asked to change that phrase decline to.

“What a mess we’ve created for ourselves,” said Emily Talen, a professor of urbanism at the University of Chicago who has studied zoning, or “the mother lode of city rules.”

[Hards Alumni]

Good story about how incredibly difficult it is to convert office buildings to housing units (rentals or condos). Easy to say this is the solution, incredibly hard to make it happen.

July 4, 2023
American Cities Have a Conversion Problem, and It’s Not Just Offices
Piles of regulations, or “kludge,” and a culture of “no” are limiting the ability to turn building blocks into something new.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/upshot/american-cities-office-conversion.html

The cumulative effect today, if you want to turn an office into an apartment, or even turn your back porch into an enclosed home office? The building code says no. Or the zoning does. Or the neighbors do. Or a phrase in a decades-old state law does. Or the politicians asked to change that phrase decline to.

“What a mess we’ve created for ourselves,” said Emily Talen, a professor of urbanism at the University of Chicago who has studied zoning, or “the mother lode of city rules.”

So change the code.  It isn't written in stone.

[Not A Serious Person]

So change the code.  It isn't written in stone.

I guess you’ve never tried this … it is almost impossible. Too many vested interested that use the code to their advantage.

[warriorchick]

So change the code.  It isn't written in stone.

No, but the deals the politicians have with the trade unions might as well be.

[Skatastrophy]

I guess you’ve never tried this … it is almost impossible. Too many vested interested that use the code to their advantage.

Capital will be behind rapid changes to code if that's what they need to not lose their shirt on their RE investments.

Per WCs point, the trade unions will see dollar signs with all the conversion work.

My bet is that code changes will happen quickly if they are actually a blocker. Who says no?

[ZiggysFryBoy]

So change the code.  It isn't written in stone.

Dude, you live in Madison, the land of the NIMBYs.  Changing codes and zoning is damn near impossible, especially with all of the "stakeholders".

(Geu, hur, boomers, gur, hur.)

[MUBurrow]

Dude, you live in Madison, the land of the NIMBYs.  Changing codes and zoning is damn near impossible, especially with all of the "stakeholders".

Not to mention that that every structure more than 20 years old is always deemed to have some grand historic importance that makes it too much of a landmark to be replaced.

[Hards Alumni]

Capital will be behind rapid changes to code if that's what they need to not lose their shirt on their RE investments.

Per WCs point, the trade unions will see dollar signs with all the conversion work.

My bet is that code changes will happen quickly if they are actually a blocker. Who says no?

Beat me to it.  If there is money to be made, and there is a problem that needs to be addressed, the code will be changed.

[Hards Alumni]

Dude, you live in Madison, the land of the NIMBYs.  Changing codes and zoning is damn near impossible, especially with all of the "stakeholders".

(Geu, hur, boomers, gur, hur.)

I know, and they're trying to fix it, and there are plenty of people trying to change the codes and zoning laws.

[Hards Alumni]

Not to mention that that every structure more than 20 years old is always deemed to have some grand historic importance that makes it too much of a landmark to be replaced.

I have a friend who doesn't live on Willy St in Madison crowing about how they're knocking down the 'Historical Neighborhood' to put up a four story 'high rise'.

I really offended her when I said that most of the old places on Willy Street were ugly, run down, and nothing special historically.

The developer bought the land got permits and THEN the people started complaining.  The building went up all the same, just as it should have.

[Pakuni]

Perhaps the death of the Chicago region has been greatly exaggerated.
Among Site Selection magazine's top counties for current economic development projects are:
2nd = Cook (tie with Harris Co., Texas)
9th = DuPage
14th = Kane (tie with Cuyahoga Co., Ohio)
16th = Will (tie with Hamilton Co., Ohio)

RIP, Lake and McHenry.

https://siteselection.com/issues/2023/july/heroes-of-the-heartland-cover.cfm

[Not A Serious Person]

Beat me to it.  If there is money to be made, and there is a problem that needs to be addressed, the code will be changed.

So, office conversion mean money will be made.

So those that worry about environmental impact, health considerations, gentrification of neighborhoods, reduction in market value from excess supply, congestion, changing demographics, and all other like issues will be summarily stream rolled for that profit.

Keep talking like this and you'll be invited to get interviewed on Fox News.

[Hards Alumni]

So, office conversion mean money will be made.

So those that worry about environmental impact, health considerations, gentrification of neighborhoods, reduction in market value from excess supply, congestion, changing demographics, and all other like issues will be summarily stream rolled for that profit.

Keep talking like this and you'll be invited to get interviewed on Fox News.

LOL.  Brother, they always have been, what makes you think we would magically swap away from Capitalism to a system with actual planning, efficiency, and equality?

Society can achieve all of those 'problems' but chooses not to.  Why do you suppose that is?  Greed.  It's a sin to you Catholics, but often ignored.

[Uncle Rico]

LOL.  Brother, they always have been, what makes you think we would magically swap away from Capitalism to a system with actual planning, efficiency, and equality?

Society can achieve all of those 'problems' but chooses not to.  Why do you suppose that is?  Greed.  It's a sin to you Catholics, but often ignored.

Greed as a sin to Catholics??????  Is that in the Bible?  I’ve heard we have to live our lives and be governed by the word of the Bible?

I don’t believe that greed is ever mentioned in the Bible

[tower912]

Matthew 19:24.    It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God.



#Jesuswaswoke