The Future of Cities

[rocket surgeon]

$100k per year salary in san francisco is now considered LOW income.  i don't know where they have to go to work however?? convention bookings are way down, hotels are closing and in some instances just walking away from their secured loans of over $700 million

   companies that have moved out of san francisco-
       nordstrom
       whole foods
       saks
       office depot
       AT&T-closing flagship store
       westfield
       anthropologie
       old navy
       amazon go
       disney
       abercrombie & fitch
       crate & barrel
       banana republic
       gap
       walgreens-closed 5 stores

tech companies vacating 2.4 million sq ft of office space
     block, meta, salesforce, snap, lyft, slack, airbnb, paypal, autodesk, chime


another beautiful city going right down the proverbial toilet. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

San Francisco will be just fine. Anyway there is a huge reverse commute issue to Silicon Valley and other parts of the area.

[4everwarriors]

Yeah maebea once dey get da human dung off da sidewalks, hey?

[Hards Alumni]

Hoke knows more than Jamie.

I didn't say that. 

[rocket surgeon]

San Francisco will be just fine. Anyway there is a huge reverse commute issue to Silicon Valley and other parts of the area.

no they won't-the out flow is still going on as we speak...it'll take years to turn that ship around.  large conventions are going elsewhere.  not until they have a fundamental change in ideology and leadership they can trust.   

[pbiflyer]

no they won't-the out flow is still going on as we speak...it'll take years to turn that ship around.  large conventions are going elsewhere.  not until they have a fundamental change in ideology and leadership they can trust.   

What are you proposing? Jailing the homeless? Cutting social services?
You really should listen to this:
https://twitter.com/MMBrussell/status/1673785438358601730?s=20

 

[Uncle Rico]

Marquette probably won’t move to San Francisco

[Dr. Blackheart]

San Francisco will be just fine. Anyway there is a huge reverse commute issue to Silicon Valley and other parts of the area.

???  There has been a tech recession and Market Street has gone from thriving to the Wild, Wild West.  BART and MUNI are collapsing and the Billionaire Tax movement has created corporate migration to the South. With it goes investment, real estate, conventions, innovation and all other associated commerce. Real Estate transfer taxes, a big source of revenue, have a been falling with devaluation. It will be a steady, downward death spiral for a long time IMO.

[MU82]

Seriously, San Fran looks pretty effed.

Although -- trying for a ray of sunshine here -- many said the same of NYC in the '70s.

But yes, like pbiflyer, I'd like to hear some proposed solutions. I sure as heck don't have any.

[Skatastrophy]

Seriously, San Fran looks pretty effed.

Although -- trying for a ray of sunshine here -- many said the same of NYC in the '70s.

But yes, like pbiflyer, I'd like to hear some proposed solutions. I sure as heck don't have any.

IMO that's the big risk with single-industry towns. Detroit suffered when the auto industry got disrupted. SF is being disrupted now during the growth/tech sector disruption.

Cities come back, some faster than others. It's also what makes places like Chicago and NYC more resilient, having diversity of industry.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

San Francisco will be just fine. Anyway there is a huge reverse commute issue to Silicon Valley and other parts of the area.

"Detroit and StL will be just fine."

-Sultan in 1977 and 2008.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

"Detroit and StL will be just fine."

-Sultan in 1977 and 2008.

Said neither. But San Francisco will be just fine.

[Pakuni]

"Detroit and StL will be just fine."

-Sultan in 1977 and 2008.

"New York City is dying"
 -  Everyone, 1970s

[Dr. Blackheart]

"New York City is dying"
 -  Everyone, 1970s

For those Scoopers not yet born...

https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/new-york-photos-1970s-vergara/

[dgies9156]

Cities come back, some faster than others. It's also what makes places like Chicago and NYC more resilient, having diversity of industry.

What industry?

Chicago:
   Steel -- Gone -- moved overseas or to Gary/Northern Indiana, where costs were lower
   Electronics -- Gone
   Auto manufacturing -- Ford still runs its Chicago Assembly Plant on the South Side. GM components plant in Willowbrook, Gone. Chrysler plant in Belvidere -- on life support
   Food Processing -- Brach has moved some of its work to Mexico. Some still exist.
   Appliances -- Gone
   Railroad Cars -- Gone
   Slaughterhouses and Beef/Pork Processing -- Gone
   Locomotives -- Electromotive, I believe, is gone.
   Bicycles -- Gone
   Printing -- If not gone, it will be soon.
   Pharma -- Abbott still has a big presence in Waukegan/Lake Bluff but Searle and others are gone.

Chicago is a transportation hub and warehousing center. Ditto for New York. But manufacturing is going, going, gone.

[Skatastrophy]

What industry?

Chicago:
   Steel -- Gone -- moved overseas or to Gary/Northern Indiana, where costs were lower
   Electronics -- Gone
   Auto manufacturing -- Ford still runs its Chicago Assembly Plant on the South Side. GM components plant in Willowbrook, Gone. Chrysler plant in Belvidere -- on life support
   Food Processing -- Brach has moved some of its work to Mexico. Some still exist.
   Appliances -- Gone
   Railroad Cars -- Gone
   Slaughterhouses and Beef/Pork Processing -- Gone
   Locomotives -- Electromotive, I believe, is gone.
   Bicycles -- Gone
   Printing -- If not gone, it will be soon.
   Pharma -- Abbott still has a big presence in Waukegan/Lake Bluff but Searle and others are gone.

Chicago is a transportation hub and warehousing center. Ditto for New York. But manufacturing is going, going, gone.

Industry in the broader sense, a grouping of companies based on their business activities. Not the antiquated manufacturing sense.

[4everwarriors]

Seriously, San Fran looks pretty effed.

Although -- trying for a ray of sunshine here -- many said the same of NYC in the '70s.

But yes, like pbiflyer, I'd like to hear some proposed solutions. I sure as heck don't have any.

Nothing changes until you change leadership. Do you think anything will change in Chicago with their newly elected mayor? Keep voting the same knucklehead types and you get the same chitty results, aka garbage in, garbage out, aina?

[Efficient Frontier]

Industry in the broader sense, a grouping of companies based on their business activities. Not the antiquated manufacturing sense.

So like Boeing, Citadel, Caterpilar, Tyson Foods? All their high-paying corporate jobs are instantly transferable to the sunbelt.

I loved my time in Chicago, but I need to see a single quantitative trend that favors that city. I’m concerned about what it will look like in 10 years.

[Pakuni]

So like Boeing, Citadel, Caterpilar, Tyson Foods? All their high-paying corporate jobs are instantly transferable to the sunbelt.

I loved my time in Chicago, but I need to see a single quantitative trend that favors that city. I’m concerned about what it will look like in 10 years.

Ask ye shall receive ....

March 1, 2023
Chicago broke its record for luring corporate relocations and expansions last year, according to a ranking from a relocation industry journal, making it the nation’s top metropolitan area for investment for the 10th year in a row despite some high-profile headquarters defections.
...
Major Chicago investments include California-based tech company Google’s agreement to buy and hire thousands of workers in the formerly state-owned James R. Thompson Center in the Loop business district, in an expansion from the company’s already large Midwest headquarters west of there in the Fulton Market district, and Michigan-based cereal giant Kellogg’s plans to spin off into three companies, the largest of which will be based in Chicago.

Other notable investments in the city include Virginia-based candy maker Mars’ ongoing construction of what will become its largest research and development hub on Goose Island, Canada-based BMO Financial’s move to anchor a new 52-story office tower near Union Station and Dutch cold storage logistics firm NewCold’s office expansion in the 40-story office tower at 500 W. Madison St.

Southwest of Chicago, Canadian electric truck and bus maker Lion Electric opened a large plant in Joliet, Illinois. West of Chicago, Ace Hardware signed a huge headquarters lease to anchor a redevelopment of the former McDonald’s headquarters in Oak Brook, Illinois, which the fast-food giant left behind when it moved to Chicago’s Fulton Market district in 2018.

https://www.costar.com/article/203048637/despite-headquarters-defections-chicago-keeps-title-as-top-spot-for-investment

[Efficient Frontier]

Ask ye shall receive ....

March 1, 2023
Chicago broke its record for luring corporate relocations and expansions last year, according to a ranking from a relocation industry journal, making it the nation’s top metropolitan area for investment for the 10th year in a row despite some high-profile headquarters defections.
...
Major Chicago investments include California-based tech company Google’s agreement to buy and hire thousands of workers in the formerly state-owned James R. Thompson Center in the Loop business district, in an expansion from the company’s already large Midwest headquarters west of there in the Fulton Market district, and Michigan-based cereal giant Kellogg’s plans to spin off into three companies, the largest of which will be based in Chicago.

Other notable investments in the city include Virginia-based candy maker Mars’ ongoing construction of what will become its largest research and development hub on Goose Island, Canada-based BMO Financial’s move to anchor a new 52-story office tower near Union Station and Dutch cold storage logistics firm NewCold’s office expansion in the 40-story office tower at 500 W. Madison St.

Southwest of Chicago, Canadian electric truck and bus maker Lion Electric opened a large plant in Joliet, Illinois. West of Chicago, Ace Hardware signed a huge headquarters lease to anchor a redevelopment of the former McDonald’s headquarters in Oak Brook, Illinois, which the fast-food giant left behind when it moved to Chicago’s Fulton Market district in 2018.

https://www.costar.com/article/203048637/despite-headquarters-defections-chicago-keeps-title-as-top-spot-for-investment

Love to see it. Poorly worded on my side… was referring to tax base and expenditures. But certainly this is related.

[Uncle Rico]

Nothing changes until you change leadership. Do you think anything will change in Chicago with their newly elected mayor? Keep voting the same knucklehead types and you get the same chitty results, aka garbage in, garbage out, aina?

Yup, look at Mississippi

[MU82]

Nothing changes until you change leadership. Do you think anything will change in Chicago with their newly elected mayor? Keep voting the same knucklehead types and you get the same chitty results, aka garbage in, garbage out, aina?

Yep, the reasons for the struggles in the Rust Belt states of Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia have been the bad governors. There couldn't possibly be any other reasons or macro factors.

[dgies9156]

Yep, the reasons for the struggles in the Rust Belt states of Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia have been the bad governors. There couldn't possibly be any other reasons or macro factors.

Indiana as a state actually has been booming for some time. They attracted a Toyota plant near Vincennes, have wildly successful pharmaceutical plans and have a very pro-business climate. Gary/Lake County, Muncie and Seymour have been hurting but the state as a whole is prosperous. It's government is conservative and runs a surplus year in and year out.

Potential investors in property, plant and equipment don't look at the state, hold their nose and wonder how they are going to be soaked to pay off a $300 billion-plus pension shortfall.

[Uncle Rico]

Indiana as a state actually has been booming for some time. They attracted a Toyota plant near Vincennes, have wildly successful pharmaceutical plans and have a very pro-business climate. Gary/Lake County, Muncie and Seymour have been hurting but the state as a whole is prosperous. It's government is conservative and runs a surplus year in and year out.

Potential investors in property, plant and equipment don't look at the state, hold their nose and wonder how they are going to be soaked to pay off a $300 billion-plus pension shortfall.

Can Marquette get potential students from there or is that not allowed?  Indianapolis is a nice city to recruit from.  Or is it doomed?  I think cities are doomed?  Seems like Indy is doing well? 

[dgies9156]

But yes, like pbiflyer, I'd like to hear some proposed solutions. I sure as heck don't have any.

I'll try, to get the debate refocused:

1) Solve the pension problem. Illinois and Chicago have a $300 billion public pension deficit. That's the actuarial shortfall of pension obligations of the State and Chicago compared to the amount of available assets to meet the obligation. Unless Chicago and Illinois invest in "the next great thing" with outlandish returns (think Amazon in the early 1990s), this actuarial cash flow shortage will become real. Everybody, beginning with the governor and legislature, wants to pretend this doesn't exist. It does and it isn't going away. The fear of any corporate location specialist or investor is that over a 30 to 40 year PPE life, Illinois will monetize the shortfall through higher personal and corporate taxes. Pension guarantees are in the state constitution, so this isn't easy. But something has to be done.

To his credit, Governor Pat Quinn tried to deal with this. He was taken out to the woodshed and politically beaten. Government is big business in Illinois and any effoert to curb it will be an uphill struggle.

2) Shift the Property Tax Burden. In most of suburban Chicago, as well as many neighborhoods in the city, the property tax burden on homeowners is oppressive. It's so bad it becomes a game. I for one challenged my property assessment every year for 12 years running. I never lost. Illinois needs to equalize educational spending (which is the major burden of the property tax), probably by increasing the income tax. But, in the process of increasing the income tax, property taxes need to be reduced, frozen and increases eventually capped. It's candidly obscene in Illinois to have North Shore schools with two full-time make-up artists while downstate schools struggle to provide basic education. There needs to be a state funding formula that's fair to everyone and reduces the property tax burden.

3) Get Rid of Governments. As the Chicago Bears have found out, every Illinois taxing body wants their hand in your back pocket. Illinois has more units of government than any other state in the union. Why, for example, do we need townships in urban counties? In my little former suburb of 21,000 persons, we had five school districts touch it. By contrast, most southern cities have one per county. Special districts in Illinois run rampant. They are everywhere. Get rid of them and get rid of the administrative costs.

4) Demand More. The biggest single problem in suffering neighborhoods of Chicago is people's willingness to put up with crapola. Parents of students should demand better! They're paying for it. Same for police. It's nice to sit and cry about gunfire, murders and assaults on the NBC 5 News with the Lovely Natalie up to her ankles in blood. It's another thing to rise up and do something about it. I see a lot of the former. Not a lot of the latter. When my children were being shafted by the local schools, my wife and I were over there in our best war paint. The teachers and the administrators openly admitted they were afraid of us. Not because we were armed or belligerent, but because we challenged them, knew the law and would not accept "no" for an answer. They didn't like someone, in a formal meeting where minutes were being kept, calling them out because they didn't do their job. There's no reason the locals in Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, St. Louis can't do the same. And, if people won't listen, there's always the ACLU.

This is just a start and designed to encourage a good conversation!