The Future of Cities

[Jay Bee]

Labor costs can account for as much as 70% of total business costs; this includes employee wages, benefits, payroll and other related taxes.

https://www.paycor.com/resource-center/articles/closer-look-at-labor-costs/

“Can”, not at all what you says, dingbat.  There are tons of orgs that have far higher costs outside of personnel. Accept the L

[Pakuni]

Thank you for saying $30k/year per student is not enough. Just keep paying more and more.

You're not a serious person.

[Not A Serious Person]

You're not a serious person.

This is what losing an argument looks like

[MuggsyB]

I'll boil it down for you ... about 100% of the population agrees on the need for pre-k, universal, and early childhood education.  There is no need to make a case for it. It has long ago been made.

So if we all agree on it, what's the problem?  Money! Who is going to pay for it? So, this is a veiled argument for an increase in per-pupil spending.

Are we not paying enough already?

And to your post ... just say it ... the problem with Chicago is $30k per pupil is not enough. The city needs to raise taxes and spend even more on education.

I am not privy to how this money is being specifically spent with regards to pre-K programs.  Are you?  What I do know is there a sizeable% of kids that cannot read by the time they are 7 and this is fking absurd.  So again, why can we not have a national goal using as many resources at our disposal as possible and change this fact?  Because these kids are essentially in danger to have any future whatsoever in this world if they cannot read.  I would focus on this goal alone and I believe it could bring both political sides together.  Get our kids reading at 3, 4, and 5.  And no, I do not hear anyone discussing that we absolutely have to change this dynamic and treat it as our highest priority. 

[MU82]

I am not privy to how this money is being specifically spent with regards to pre-K programs.  Are you?  What I do know is there a sizeable% of kids that cannot read by the time they are 7 and this is fking absurd.  So again, why can we not have a national goal using as many resources at our disposal as possible and change this fact?  Because these kids are essentially in danger to have any future whatsoever in this world if they cannot read.  I would focus on this goal alone and I believe it could bring both political sides together.  Get our kids reading at 3, 4, and 5.  And no, I do not hear anyone discussing that we absolutely have to change this dynamic and treat it as our highest priority.

Agree, Muggs. We've actually made some nice in-roads in this area in NC, especially in the big cities. And that's despite politics here being as divisive as anywhere, so it can happen if the power brokers are willing to put aside some pettiness and work together.

Covid-19 was a rough blow because the kids who could least afford time away were missing school, but even they are gradually catching up again.

[Pakuni]

This is what losing an argument looks like

No, it's what being bored with real-life examples of the Dunning–Kruger effect looks like.

[dgies9156]

Sorry, dg, but you also can't speak for Chicago. My wife and I know at least a dozen Chicago teachers, including two of our best friends, and they work their asses off to make life and learning better for the kids. My daughter's best friend from high school is a Chicago public school teacher; she works incredibly hard, too. You might think their pay is "high" because it's more than teachers make in smaller towns and/or southern states, but Chicago is a very high cost-of-living area, and all of the teachers we know work WAY more than 40 hours a week.

Brother MU:

The fact that (if I remember correctly) only 11 percent of African Americans and 17 percent of Hispanic students tested can function at grade level in 11th grade math speaks for itself. By any measure, CPS is failing. In many African American and Hispanic neighborhoods, ACT and SAT scores are so low as to barely register. Even accounting for allegations of cultural bias, the numbers are shameful.

Sure, we can throw more money at it. But CPS is spending more than double the statewide average per pupil. And that's a state that includes New Trier, Highland Park, Lake Forest, Stevenson, Glenbrook, Glenbard, Naperville, Downers Grove, Hinsdale among others. It is a state that spends a very large amount of property tax on education and Chicago is failing. Badly.

Nobody wants to face the massive scope of the failure because, like Illinois' public pension mess, if you deal with it, there will be both pain and unnerving change. Neither is something people prefer from their government. That, and thousands and thousands of people not used to accountability will be held accountable! Heck, the city could not even close heavily underutilized schools without massive threats from the CTU, allegations of racism from the neighborhoods and screams about how a half dozen children will have to wade across the floor of the Kennedy Expressway and dodge 80,000 pound trucks to get to an alternative school (OK, I jest on the last one, a little)

I'll concede that there are some caring, good teachers in CPS. And, I'll further concede that if one can contribute enough money to an alderman, local potentate or ward healer to get children into a magnet school, the education is pretty good. But the separate and horribly unequal education that comes from most CPS schools not only is terrible but is a civil rights violation as well.

Reform the educational system to put students first and you're well on your way to improving urban economies.

[MU82]

Brother MU:

The fact that (if I remember correctly) only 11 percent of African Americans and 17 percent of Hispanic students tested can function at grade level in 11th grade math speaks for itself. By any measure, CPS is failing. In many African American and Hispanic neighborhoods, ACT and SAT scores are so low as to barely register. Even accounting for allegations of cultural bias, the numbers are shameful.

Sure, we can throw more money at it. But CPS is spending more than double the statewide average per pupil. And that's a state that includes New Trier, Highland Park, Lake Forest, Stevenson, Glenbrook, Glenbard, Naperville, Downers Grove, Hinsdale among others. It is a state that spends a very large amount of property tax on education and Chicago is failing. Badly.

Nobody wants to face the massive scope of the failure because, like Illinois' public pension mess, if you deal with it, there will be both pain and unnerving change. Neither is something people prefer from their government. That, and thousands and thousands of people not used to accountability will be held accountable! Heck, the city could not even close heavily underutilized schools without massive threats from the CTU, allegations of racism from the neighborhoods and screams about how a half dozen children will have to wade across the floor of the Kennedy Expressway and dodge 80,000 pound trucks to get to an alternative school (OK, I jest on the last one, a little)

I'll concede that there are some caring, good teachers in CPS. And, I'll further concede that if one can contribute enough money to an alderman, local potentate or ward healer to get children into a magnet school, the education is pretty good. But the separate and horribly unequal education that comes from most CPS schools not only is terrible but is a civil rights violation as well.

Reform the educational system to put students first and you're well on your way to improving urban economies.

We all know the overall state of CPS is poor. I was responding to your suggestion that CPS teachers have been handed wonderful jobs with great pay and conditions by a district that does "everything for the teachers and not for the students."

Thanks for conceding that there are some caring, good teachers at CPS. I'd suggest that there are a lot more than you choose to believe, and I'd suggest that very few have it easy.

As for Chicago and any other major metro school district, improving them obviously is incredibly difficult. I agree reform is necessary. But saying "reform" is a bazillion times easier than to even begin to execute reform.

And for the record, after attending a neighborhood K-8 school, both of our kids somehow got into Payton Prep even though my wife and I didn't pay off any aldermen.

[dgies9156]

We all know the overall state of CPS is poor. I was responding to your suggestion that CPS teachers have been handed wonderful jobs with great pay and conditions by a district that does "everything for the teachers and not for the students."

Thanks for conceding that there are some caring, good teachers at CPS. I'd suggest that there are a lot more than you choose to believe, and I'd suggest that very few have it easy.

As for Chicago and any other major metro school district, improving them obviously is incredibly difficult. I agree reform is necessary. But saying "reform" is a bazillion times easier than to even begin to execute reform.

And for the record, after attending a neighborhood K-8 school, both of our kids somehow got into Payton Prep even though my wife and I didn't pay off any aldermen.

I think you may have me confused with someone else. I never said they had a great job with great pay. Rather, I said and continue to believe, the vast majority aren't doing their jobs. The CTU has taken control of CPS and the system works for the teachers, not the students.

I'm glad your children were admitted to Payton prep. It's not only one of the best CPS schools, it's among the best in the country. What that means is the teachers WANT to teach your children. I'm sure your children were smart, well prepared and didn't give the teachers a whole lot of trouble. From what you've said about your family over the years, they're great young adults.

The teachers didn't want to teach my children -- and we were in a so-called "high-performing" district which had a motto of "Learning for All -- Whatever It Takes." Mine were outliers and traditional teaching techniques didn't work. My daughter was stuck in an LD class with six other children, all of whom were boys and none of whom spoke English sufficiently to function in a U.S. School. Rather than finding a way to reach our children -- which is their job -- they tried to socially promote them. My wife gets an instant ticket to heaven for the hours she spent re-teaching our children late into the evening because the schools were inept. In effect, our children were home schooled. Thank God Libertyville High more than made up for the incompetence we saw in Middle School.

Heck, even one of my relatives who is a teacher, in my presence, wailed about having to teach "those learning disabled children."

Multiply this by the number of students who may have been exposed to fetal alcohol, who have some type of genetic learning disability or otherwise have problems teachers don't want to deal with. That's a big part of CPS' problem, along with parents who just have given up. We gave thought several times about moving to the city while we lived in the Chicago area, but didn't in large measure because we were afraid of CPS. With good reason!

Bottom line: You want to reverse the 60 year population decline? School reform -- real reform with performance benchmarks -- has to be the starting point. We can't run from it because it steps on the CTU's toes, or because it's too hard!

[Pakuni]

I think you may have me confused with someone else. I never said they had a great job with great pay. Rather, I said and continue to believe, the vast majority aren't doing their jobs. The CTU has taken control of CPS and the system works for the teachers, not the students.

Anyway to support this, beyond your feelings?

[MU82]

dgies, no need to go further. My experience with Chicago teachers, including those I know personally and those who taught my kids from their earliest years, apparently was different than yours.

[MuggsyB]

dgies, no need to go further. My experience with Chicago teachers, including those I know personally and those who taught my kids from their earliest years, apparently was different than yours.

I don't think it's black and white.  I think there are excellent teachers, good teachers, mediocre teachers, poor teachers, and really bad teachers.  And this is at every level. 

[MU82]

I don't think it's black and white.  I think there are excellent teachers, good teachers, mediocre teachers, poor teachers, and really bad teachers.  And this is at every level.

And in every city, town and village.

[MuggsyB]

And in every city, town and village.

No question about it. 

[Not A Serious Person]

Downtown Has Not Yet Fully Recovered

https://apolloacademy.com/downtown-has-not-yet-fully-recovered/

Data from downtowns show that cellphone activity in San Francisco is at 31% of pre-pandemic levels, see chart below. New York is at 74% and Chicago is at 50% of 2019 levels. Boston is at 54% of pre-pandemic levels. This has implications for retail, restaurants, and office.

[WarriorFan]

Having just read this entire dialogue I'm surprised there are no references to European or Asian cities in which one can live and work and dine and shop all within  a few hundred meters... or at least on top of a subway stop that conveniently take you to where you work. 

Most US cities (and this is a distinctly US problem, even Canada has avoided it) have underinvested in:
- public transport
- zoning & re-zoning
- education

The old american concept of living in the burbs and working in the center is dead.  That's why cities need to re-formulate (re-zone) and re-invent mixed use areas that cater to business and living and culture.

If I were to live in downtown Milwaukee or Chicago (which I'd love to do), i would expect that the massive property taxes would create an education system worthy of the expense, and public transport that is at least not disgusting. 

Examples of cities that have successfully combined work/home/basic needs/culture:  (in no apparent order) Melbourne, Brisbane, Singapore, Hong Kong, Zurich, Berlin, Dubai, Moscow, Vancouver.  Jakarta and Bangkok have massively improved. 

Milwaukee is in fact one of the best mid-size mid-american cities with a city center far more active than St. Louis, Dayton, Cincinnatti, Detroit, etc. 

[Hards Alumni]

Having just read this entire dialogue I'm surprised there are no references to European or Asian cities in which one can live and work and dine and shop all within  a few hundred meters... or at least on top of a subway stop that conveniently take you to where you work. 

Most US cities (and this is a distinctly US problem, even Canada has avoided it) have underinvested in:
- public transport
- zoning & re-zoning
- education

The old american concept of living in the burbs and working in the center is dead.  That's why cities need to re-formulate (re-zone) and re-invent mixed use areas that cater to business and living and culture.

If I were to live in downtown Milwaukee or Chicago (which I'd love to do), i would expect that the massive property taxes would create an education system worthy of the expense, and public transport that is at least not disgusting. 

Examples of cities that have successfully combined work/home/basic needs/culture:  (in no apparent order) Melbourne, Brisbane, Singapore, Hong Kong, Zurich, Berlin, Dubai, Moscow, Vancouver.  Jakarta and Bangkok have massively improved. 

Milwaukee is in fact one of the best mid-size mid-american cities with a city center far more active than St. Louis, Dayton, Cincinnatti, Detroit, etc.

Agree on all fronts, but Americans opted for single family homes and sprawl 70 years ago.  We don't plan our cities very well here.

[PorkysButthole]

Interesting Article in today's NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/05/10/opinion/nyc-office-vacancy-playground-city.html

[dgies9156]

Milwaukee is in fact one of the best mid-size mid-american cities with a city center far more active than St. Louis, Dayton, Cincinnatti, Detroit, etc.

But they don't have the Cardinals 

[MU82]

Large U.S. cities regain population lost during pandemic, census data shows

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/05/18/cities-population-rebound-pandemic/

Many of the nation’s most populous cities shrank when covid struck, causing speculation about whether the change would be permanent. But those cities are for the most part rebounding, according to new data released by the Census Bureau on Thursday.

Most of the 37 cities with more than 500,000 people saw demographic slowdowns in the first year of the pandemic, with the most severe declines in San Francisco, which lost 6.79 percent of its population, and New York City, which lost 3.22 percent. But between July 2021 and July 2022, all but six had improved their trajectory, either by resuming growth, increasing growth, or slowing their decline, the bureau’s latest Vintage 2022 population estimates show.

The 10 most populous cities — those with more than 1 million residents at the start of the pandemic — did the best, with nine out of 10 showing demographic improvement. (Only Philadelphia did not.) The turnarounds spanned the country, with the largest in San Francisco, Seattle, Nashville, Boston, New York City, San Jose, Dallas and Milwaukee, according to an analysis of the data by William Frey, a senior demographer at the Brookings Institution.

Less populous cities, on the other hand, have not seen the same level of revival: Only about half of those with populations between 50,000 and 500,000 did better last year than the previous year. “Fewer of these smaller areas took the big hits of larger cities, and many experienced pandemic-era increases which could be eroding somewhat in the past year,” Frey said.

At the beginning of the pandemic, when many workers who were able to telecommute fled crowded cities for the suburbs or rural areas, businesses and demographers were left guessing whether the moves would be permanent. The new data implies they were not. But regaining population does not necessarily mean that city centers will bounce back.

“We’re talking about whole cities, not just downtowns,” Frey said. “Especially in big cities, where downtown is a big part of the commercial but not a big part of the residential, you still have a lot of people working from home.” ...

The growth may yet increase, Frey said, noting that the numbers released Thursday roughly reflect the second year of the pandemic, when many people were still being cautious. “When the pandemic is on the back burner for many of these people, there may be more coming down the road.”

[Not A Serious Person]

From the story above.

Most of these cities never had more than 1 million in population. This is factually incorrect.

——

The 10 most populous cities — those with more than 1 million residents at the start of the pandemic — did the best, with nine out of 10 showing demographic improvement. (Only Philadelphia did not.) The turnarounds spanned the country, with the largest in San Francisco, Seattle, Nashville, Boston, New York City, San Jose, Dallas and Milwaukee, according to an analysis of the data by William Frey, a senior demographer at the Brookings Institution.

[MU82]

And yet they are growing, including the Chicago metro area.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

People have been forecasting the downfall of cities for a long time. Heisey will just be the latest in a long-line of people to be wrong about it.

[Hards Alumni]

People have been forecasting the downfall of cities for a long time. Heisey will just be the latest in a long-line of people to be wrong about it.

They were right in the 60s and 70s though, during white flight.  Cities (NYC as an example) changed and beginning in the 90s gentrified like crazy.  Now there is a ton of commercial real estate that isn't being used (WFH being a thing).  Cities could probably add a lot more density if they added housing where commercial properties sit empty.

Furthermore, there should be some regulation regarding empty store fronts being allowed to sit empty for years without the owner attempting to find a tenant.  Tax empty commercial buildings to facilitate entrepreneurship instead of real estate speculation.  Looking at you, State Street in Madison.

[Pakuni]

They were right in the 60s and 70s though, during white flight.  Cities (NYC as an example) changed and beginning in the 90s gentrified like crazy.  Now there is a ton of commercial real estate that isn't being used (WFH being a thing).  Cities could probably add a lot more density if they added housing where commercial properties sit empty.

Furthermore, there should be some regulation regarding empty store fronts being allowed to sit empty for years without the owner attempting to find a tenant.  Tax empty commercial buildings to facilitate entrepreneurship instead of real estate speculation.  Looking at you, State Street in Madison.

What you're describing isn't the downfall of cities, though. It's the evolution of cities. And that's something that's been happening since a bunch of Sumerians got together and decided they were tired of walking so much.