The Future of Cities

[Not A Serious Person]

It's not an old data set, but it's a crappy publication using data published by the disreputable Illinois Policy Institute (a far-right think tank). Illinois Policy Institute says they're using Census estimate data, but I can only find that number on the Census bureau website using their "vintage analysis" approach to population estimates which has been off by as much as 500,000 people in Illinois as recently as 2020.

Did you know that the US Census Bureau has estimated Chicago & Illinois' population loss incredibly inaccurately every year thanks to those vintage estimates? Thankfully there are real counts every once in a while, and also the census bureau has been working to update their estimation methodology. It was interesting that the real census count in 2020 proved that Illinois grew by 250,000 instead of the census bureau estimates saying Illinois shrunk by 250,000 people.  Here's an interesting article if you're interested - https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2023/3/31/23665433/census-bureau-illinois-population-estimates-raja-krishnamoorthi-column-rich-miller

The author of this piece in the Sun Times is Rich Miller. From his Wikipedia - Miller was a columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times for 8 years before joining Crain's Chicago Business in 2014 as a columnist.[2] The Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois.

Seems trustworthy?

Compared to the article that Heisenberg shared written by "Editor" from the "Illinois Business Journal." The Illinois Business Journal seems to be run by Greg Hoskins (who owns 20+ small town papers in Southern Illinois), and has one editor, Melissa Crockett Meske. Melissa's credentials are that she's a communications strategist, "My bylines appear in publications throughout the United States including the Illinois Business Journal, Great Rivers & Routes Tourism Bureau (Southwestern Illinois) seasonal tourism guides, various RiverBend Growth Association publications including their annual Currents magazine." https://macmeske.com/

It would be nice if Heisenberg could find good sources to back up their opinions on things. The crappy sources make it seem like the arguments are intellectually dishonest? Pretty weird, honestly.

The census bureau is lying; anyone listening to them is a Fox News hater.

Instead, rely on a far-leftist- politician that says the census bureau is lying.

That is a good argument you have!

---

But assuming it is correct. It would not be unique to Suburban Chicago; it will largely apply to the entire country. Everyone would see a bump higher, and nothing would change. Suburban Chicago continues to lose ground to everyone else, and anyone relying on Suburban Chicago, like a University looking for students, remains at a disadvantage.

[Skatastrophy]

The census bureau is lying; anyone listening to them is a Fox News hater.

Instead, rely on a far-leftist- politician that says the census bureau is lying.

That is a good argument you have!

---

But assuming it is correct. It would not be unique to Suburban Chicago; it will largely apply to the entire country. Everyone would see a bump higher, and nothing would change. Suburban Chicago continues to lose ground to everyone else, and anyone relying on Suburban Chicago, like a University looking for students, remains at a disadvantage.

Man, you have brain rot

[Hards Alumni]

Brother Dgies,

All the things you have mentioned are dependent on #1 and the primary problem is we have the wrong vision and overall goals.  It starts with early childhood education.  I'm talking ages 2-5.  We should have a national goal that  learning to read before age 5 is mandatory or you can't enroll in kindergarten.

I used to tutor kids ages 12-17 in both reading/writing and math in Chicago and DC.  It's absolutely astounding that their skill levels are so behind.  As far as I can tell nothing has changed.  In lieu of this idea of free college what we should have is free or minimal cost early childhood education in our inner cities. 

It can be done with the right vision and right incentives to get high quality pre K teachers.  Everything starts with learning how to read.  We have failed our children and our entire educational system needs to be re-examined imo.  Start with one simple but vital goal.  For those that do not have special needs reading by age 5 has to be mandatory.  The two most important things that can be done for young children is learning how to swim and learning how to read.

1.  Okay, so what happens to those kids?  They get left behind?

2.  Yes free childcare/learning... but let's make it everywhere, not just the problematic sounding, "Inner cities".  Yikes.

3.  I'm not going to crap on your swimming idea because it is an important life skill, but it shouldn't be a top priority.

I'll add that we need to treat our teachers much better than we do and spend the money on them to encourage our best and brightest to become and REMAIN teaching.  We don't do that. 

[MU82]

Let's agree that 2022 Suburban Chicago population growth has now sunk to zero (you showed a slight increase, around 0.15%, and I showed a slight decrease of -0.15%. Let's round it to zero). Over the same time, the US population grew by 0.38%

Suburban Chicago's population has been ~2% larger since 2010. The US is ~9% larger over the same period.

Schools that do not rely on suburban Chicago as a primary source of students are seeing applications grow faster than MU. This allows schools everywhere else to increase their standards for acceptance faster than MU.

So, MU's standards will fall faster than everyone else. They will sink reputationally, and their ability to grow the university will also be impaired.

Again, why do I care about this? Let's look at another similar school that also relies on Suburban Chicago for their primary source of students, Depaul.

Their enrollment started sinking at least six years ago. For Depaul, this is not a problem decades into the future. It has already started. To assume MU can escape this same plight for decades is misplaced. For all we know, it has already started at MU.



That is unless MU can transcend its geographic constraints and become a truly national university. Happy to hear an argument as to why this is happening or about to happen.

It is short-sided to brush this problem off as it will largely occur after I die, so who cares. Responsible universities, and their trustees, care a great deal about long-term planning and need to deal with these problems now.

I know Lovell cared. He told me as much at more than one luncheon I attended., He is fully aware of the population decline and the challenges it poses.

We will agree to disagree on the threat to Marquette. Have a good one! (If you're willing to allow yourself to do so.)

[Pakuni]

The census bureau is lying; anyone listening to them is a Fox News hater.

The Census Bureau would never provide incorrect data on Illinois' population, right?


Illinois suffered significant undercounting during the 2020 census, leading to the mistaken conclusion that the state lost residents over the previous ten years — when in reality it added more than a quarter of a million people and swelled to its largest population ever.
That’s the stunning revelation from a report the U.S. Census Bureau itself released on Thursday, admitting that its ten-year head counts were off in more than a dozen states.
Illinois’ purported population loss has become a talking point for everyone from former residents justifying their departure to political candidates using it to bash incumbents for policies they say are prompting a stampede out of the state.


https://chicago.suntimes.com/2022/5/19/23131741/illinois-2020-census-undercount-population-gain-pritzker-welch-democrats-republican-trump

Third graph feels particularly relevant in this thread 

[MU82]

I dont disagree with most of your post, but putting learning to read and learning to swim at anywhere the same level is kind of wild, unless you live in a balmy climate and have a pool in your backyard.  For a kid growing up in the Midwest or Northern climates where pool/swimming weather is 3 months a year at best, I think there are far more important/pressing developmental goals.

Maybe Muggs is thinking that 90% of the U.S. will be under water within a few years.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Let's agree that 2022 Suburban Chicago population growth has now sunk to zero (you showed a slight increase, around 0.15%, and I showed a slight decrease of -0.15%. Let's round it to zero). Over the same time, the US population grew by 0.38%

Suburban Chicago's population has been ~2% larger since 2010. The US is ~9% larger over the same period.

Schools that do not rely on suburban Chicago as a primary source of students are seeing applications grow faster than MU. This allows schools everywhere else to increase their standards for acceptance faster than MU.

So, MU's standards will fall faster than everyone else. They will sink reputationally, and their ability to grow the university will also be impaired.

Again, why do I care about this? Let's look at another similar school that also relies on Suburban Chicago for their primary source of students, Depaul.

Their enrollment started sinking at least six years ago. For Depaul, this is not a problem decades into the future. It has already started. To assume MU can escape this same plight for decades is misplaced. For all we know, it has already started at MU.



That is unless MU can transcend its geographic constraints and become a truly national university. Happy to hear an argument as to why this is happening or about to happen.

It is short-sided to brush this problem off as it will largely occur after I die, so who cares. Responsible universities, and their trustees, care a great deal about long-term planning and need to deal with these problems now.

I know Lovell cared. He told me as much at more than one luncheon I attended., He is fully aware of the population decline and the challenges it poses.

If those "part time faculty" are headcount and not FTE, the graph is pretty meaningless.

[Not A Serious Person]

The Census Bureau would never provide incorrect data on Illinois' population, right?


Illinois suffered significant undercounting during the 2020 census, leading to the mistaken conclusion that the state lost residents over the previous ten years — when in reality it added more than a quarter of a million people and swelled to its largest population ever.
That’s the stunning revelation from a report the U.S. Census Bureau itself released on Thursday, admitting that its ten-year head counts were off in more than a dozen states.
Illinois’ purported population loss has become a talking point for everyone from former residents justifying their departure to political candidates using it to bash incumbents for policies they say are prompting a stampede out of the state.


https://chicago.suntimes.com/2022/5/19/23131741/illinois-2020-census-undercount-population-gain-pritzker-welch-democrats-republican-trump

Third graph feels particularly relevant in this thread

Yes, more left-wing politicians calling BS on professional statisticians because they don't like the answer.

Good argument

[Not A Serious Person]

Man, you have brain rot

Probably, but I do not think that the world is made up of statistics that agree with my view or the liars/Fox News Watchers.

[Jay Bee]

Learning to swim is very important, but drowning is pretty far down the list of causes of child deaths.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2201761

#BadData

What you linked to isn’t about children. It’s about people ages 1 (excludes those under 1) through 19 (includes many adult deaths).

An infant is a child. A 19 year old is not. Stop the lies!!!!

[Not A Serious Person]

If those "part time faculty" are headcount and not FTE, the graph is pretty meaningless.

If the black line keeps sinking, both bars are going down.

And how many other universities that rely on Suburban Chicago for enrollment have this same kind of black line, or will shortly?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

If the black line keeps sinking, both bars are going down.

And how many other universities that rely on Suburban Chicago for enrollment have this same kind of black line, or will shortly?

Two things:

The graph looks worse than it is due to scale.

And it takes time to reduce full time faculty, due to tenure and due to further specialization at the graduate levels.  Part time faculty are used as student population rises and falls.

So the best thing to do would be to comparing student to faculty ratio by using the FTE of each.

[Pakuni]

Yes, more left-wing politicians calling BS on professional statisticians because they don't like the answer.

Good argument

It was the Census Bureau, i.e. the professional statisticians, that made the correction, not politicians 
Bad reading comprehension.

[RJax55]

DePaul's enrollment decline is mostly due to falling graduate-level enrollments. Transfer student enrollment and the softening of the undergraduate retention rate are also contributors, but at a significantly smaller rate.

Use that info as you wish to continue the pissing match.

[Not A Serious Person]

Two things:

The graph looks worse than it is due to scale.

And it takes time to reduce full time faculty, due to tenure and due to further specialization at the graduate levels.  Part time faculty are used as student population rises and falls.

So the best thing to do would be to comparing student to faculty ratio by using the FTE of each.

Agree about the chart.

Depaul's enrollment From the chart

2017 = 22,769
2022 = 20,791
Loss  = 1,978 (8.7%)

A major university showing five sequential years of enrollment decline now totaling almost 9% seems huge!

Why?

DePaul spokesperson Mary Hansen attributed it to "increased competition for students among universities and declining numbers of college-going students."

https://www.axios.com/local/chicago/2022/06/13/illinois-undergraduate-enrollment-drops

So, why does the highlighted part not matter to MU?

[Skatastrophy]

Probably, but I do not think that the world is made up of statistics that agree with my view or the liars/Fox News Watchers.

That was a nice response to an pretty boy remark by me. Good on you, sorry for losing my cool.

The statistics you shared are provably incorrect, but I suppose it's up to you to ignore the evidence. Even if that evidence is the census bureau saying that they're going to update their methodology because of how big of a miss they had specifically in Chicago.

Have a great weekend.

[MuggsyB]

#BadData

What you linked to isn’t about children. It’s about people ages 1 (excludes those under 1) through 19 (includes many adult deaths).

An infant is a child. A 19 year old is not. Stop the lies!!!!

My whole point was about young children and these people go to something completely tangential and disregard that learning to swim is very important for this age group. 

[Not A Serious Person]

That was a nice response to an pretty boy remark by me. Good on you, sorry for losing my cool.

The statistics you shared are provably incorrect, but I suppose it's up to you to ignore the evidence. Even if that evidence is the census bureau saying that they're going to update their methodology because of how big of a miss they had specifically in Chicago.

Have a great weekend.

No problem

But I'll ask again, pretty much every state unhappy with the census is making the same argument. So if the Census' methodology is proven wrong, and everyone gets equally bumped higher, then nothing changes.

Or, is there a case to make Chicagoland methodology was wrong, then say, NYC?  NY/NYC is screaming even louder about the census numbers.

[Skatastrophy]

No problem

But I'll ask again, pretty much every state unhappy with the census is making the same argument. So if the Census' methodology is proven wrong, and everyone gets equally bumped higher, then nothing changes.

Or, is there a case to make Chicagoland methodology was wrong, then say, NYC?  NY/NYC is screaming even louder about the census numbers.

The Census was correct, the estimations between censuses were incorrect by over 500,000 people in Illinois.

The estimates, the numbers you're using, have been very very wrong in Chicago/Illinois vs the counted numbers. The census bureau is trying to update their methodology to fix that issue. Other places have not been as wrong. I'm not expert, so I can't explain the "why" to you. That's why I linked an article written by a guy that's been digging into this for a few years.

[dgies9156]

I'll add that we need to treat our teachers much better than we do and spend the money on them to encourage our best and brightest to become and REMAIN teaching.  We don't do that.

At the risk of starting a war, we do treat our teachers well. Maybe in some rural and poor districts there are problems, but overall, no chance!

In Chicago, for example, the state and city spend an average of $30,000 per pupil on education. The state average is $15,000. Where do you think most of that goes? There is something materially wrong when we spend this kind of money on schools and our 11th graders cannot do basic math, read and write. It's only going to get worse now that the Teachers control City Hall.

In my old District, Community 128 in Libertyville and Vernon Hills, our median teacher salary is well over $100,000 annually. And the benefits they receive, including low-cost healthcare, extreme pension benefits (assuming the fund is solvent) and a vacation that most of us would call "retirement" are huge. They scream about grading papers et al, but in a job like mine, working 12-16 hour days is not uncommon. And the pay is comparable. They did great work -- my children were living proof of it -- but they're NOT, repeat, NOT treated poorly.

One of the major problems with urban education is we may be expecting too much from the schools. To be candid, my early childhood education was gained in the lap of my mother. Or sitting next to her as she read to me, and my brothers and sisters. My Dad did too and they both had expectations of us. They backed it with their effort and their sacrifice, both of which enabled four of their six children to attend and receive degrees from Marquette (the other two went to Catholic Universities in the Midwest).

When we had problems, my Mom or Dad took us to get help. In one case, that meant dealing with ADHD by driving across Nashville to treatments and meetings twice a week. In other cases, it meant simply sitting with us as we went to the pool. Or taking us to the forest and letting us go into the woods and explore.

The point is, when you have a child, a parent needs to take responsibility. The schools can and should be a partner in the effort but, to be candid, no one can expect a school to replace a parent. That doesn't mean we give up on struggling children with incompetent parents, but it means we get rid of a "if it feels good, do it" or "it's not in my plan" or "it's inconvenient" attitudes.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Agree about the chart.

Depaul's enrollment From the chart

2017 = 22,769
2022 = 20,791
Loss  = 1,978 (8.7%)

A major university showing five sequential years of enrollment decline now totaling almost 9% seems huge!

Why?

DePaul spokesperson Mary Hansen attributed it to "increased competition for students among universities and declining numbers of college-going students."

https://www.axios.com/local/chicago/2022/06/13/illinois-undergraduate-enrollment-drops

So, why does the highlighted part not matter to MU?

Of course it does.

[PorkysButthole]

I've attended lunches with Lovell, and he talked at length about how MU needs to diversify away from suburban Chicago (Deerfield, Wilmette, Naperville, Homewood, Gurnee, Tinley Park, and Park Ridge).

I've seen you participate in threads in this forum about the same need.

Why does everyone think MU needs to diversify away from suburban Chicago? It is not because it is a bad place. It is because it is not growing. 

So, you are correct the number of applications from suburban Chicago is not going to zero ... ever (as you said, even if it falls one million tomorrow). But it is not growing. And for MU to maintain its academic and reputational standards, it needs a growing pool of applications to maintain its selectivity.

That growing pool of applications will no longer come from the area that has supplied a growing pool of applications for many decades ... suburban Chicago. 

This is a problem. Not a problem tomorrow. But a real and significant long-term planning problem.

Glad to hear this is on Lovell's radar.  Porky just wishes they would actually DO something about it.  It seems as though they're just thinking about it.   The debate about whether the greater Chicagoland area is growing or not should be irrelevant as it relates to MU.

In Porky's view, geographic diversity is every bit as important....if not more important.....than racial and socio-economic diversity and a large university needs all three to truly thrive, so even if greater Chicagoland was projected to grow their overall population as well as their population of 18-22 year-olds by double digits for the next two decades, MU should still aggressively pursue geographic diversity if it wants to maintain is current position.

Porky can only speak for the metro NYC area, and to a lesser extent the Northeast but to call MU's recruitment efforts here abysmal would be generous.   And before anyone cites the even more ominous demographic cliff facing the Northeast, Porky fully acknowledges that the population of college age students is declining precipitously here as well, but there are still a hell of a lot more of them here.  It's the most densely populated part of the country by far and that's not going change anytime soon. 

Porky has long suspected MU has eschewed more geographic diversity because that pursuit conflicts with MU's mission.  They need to get over this.   Yes, students that matriculate to MU from the coasts and south tend to come from wealthier families who can afford the increased cost of travel back and forth during breaks and summers.   So what??????   Presumably these students' families qualify for significantly less aid and pay a higher percentage of sticker tuition.   Wouldn't that help fund more aid for the less fortunate?   What is Porky missing?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Glad to hear this is on Lovell's radar.  Porky just wishes they would actually DO something about it.  It seems as though they're just thinking about it.   The debate about whether the greater Chicagoland area is growing or not should be irrelevant as it relates to MU.

In Porky's view, geographic diversity is every bit as important....if not more important.....than racial and socio-economic diversity and a large university needs all three to truly thrive, so even if greater Chicagoland was projected to grow their overall population as well as their population of 18-22 year-olds by double digits for the next two decades, MU should still aggressively pursue geographic diversity if it wants to maintain is current position.

Porky can only speak for the metro NYC area, and to a lesser extent the Northeast but to call MU's recruitment efforts here abysmal would be generous.   And before anyone cites the even more ominous demographic cliff facing the Northeast, Porky fully acknowledges that the population of college age students is declining precipitously here as well, but there are still a hell of a lot more of them here.  It's the most densely populated part of the country by far and that's not going change anytime soon. 

Porky has long suspected MU has eschewed more geographic diversity because that pursuit conflicts with MU's mission.  They need to get over this.   Yes, students that matriculate to MU from the coasts and south tend to come from wealthier families who can afford the increased cost of travel back and forth during breaks and summers.   So what??????   Presumably these students' families qualify for significantly less aid and pay a higher percentage of sticker tuition.   Wouldn't that help fund more aid for the less fortunate?   What is Porky missing?

They are doing something about it. They are intentionally focusing on students in majors that traditionally pay more in net tuition (business, nursing, engineering) and don't mind if they get smaller in the process.  It's a smart strategy that a lot of schools are following.

Geographic diversity is a high-cost game. You just put yourself into competition with schools that are going to drive that net tuition down. It has nothing to do with mission.

[Hards Alumni]

At the risk of starting a war, we do treat our teachers well. Maybe in some rural and poor districts there are problems, but overall, no chance!

In Chicago, for example, the state and city spend an average of $30,000 per pupil on education. The state average is $15,000. Where do you think most of that goes? There is something materially wrong when we spend this kind of money on schools and our 11th graders cannot do basic math, read and write. It's only going to get worse now that the Teachers control City Hall.

In my old District, Community 128 in Libertyville and Vernon Hills, our median teacher salary is well over $100,000 annually. And the benefits they receive, including low-cost healthcare, extreme pension benefits (assuming the fund is solvent) and a vacation that most of us would call "retirement" are huge. They scream about grading papers et al, but in a job like mine, working 12-16 hour days is not uncommon. And the pay is comparable. They did great work -- my children were living proof of it -- but they're NOT, repeat, NOT treated poorly.

One of the major problems with urban education is we may be expecting too much from the schools. To be candid, my early childhood education was gained in the lap of my mother. Or sitting next to her as she read to me, and my brothers and sisters. My Dad did too and they both had expectations of us. They backed it with their effort and their sacrifice, both of which enabled four of their six children to attend and receive degrees from Marquette (the other two went to Catholic Universities in the Midwest).

When we had problems, my Mom or Dad took us to get help. In one case, that meant dealing with ADHD by driving across Nashville to treatments and meetings twice a week. In other cases, it meant simply sitting with us as we went to the pool. Or taking us to the forest and letting us go into the woods and explore.

The point is, when you have a child, a parent needs to take responsibility. The schools can and should be a partner in the effort but, to be candid, no one can expect a school to replace a parent. That doesn't mean we give up on struggling children with incompetent parents, but it means we get rid of a "if it feels good, do it" or "it's not in my plan" or "it's inconvenient" attitudes.

Cool story bro.  Average Salary in Milwaukee Public Schools was $66,000.  In rural Poynette, WI they're catching around $50,000.  Do you think that is enough money to live on as a college graduate?  Would you sign up for that?  Plus teachers are 100% treated like crap.  They're subjected to a hostile work environment where their work is criticized non stop, they're accused of misconduct, and literally have a chance at being shot dead. 

https://publicstaffreports.dpi.wi.gov/PubStaffReport/Public/PublicReport/TeacherSalaryReport  You can look up any district in Wisconsin if you choose.

Libertyville and Vernon Hills are wealthy suburbs.  People MOVE to those places FOR their schools.  You named two places that teachers DREAM of teaching.  Well unfortunately, there is this thing called reality and in the United States of America we still have to educate every student.  Everyone that walks through the door.  Every district has different needs, and different challenges.

Also, respectfully, you're old.  You grew up in a time where parents had time to raise their children and spend time with them.  You clearly came from an an extremely privileged background.  Not everyone has that time or has that ability to impact their child's lives.  Even the children you've raised were raised in a different period of time.  This constant harping from people about how 'it starts at home' is so incredibly stupid.  How can anything start at home when the parents and more often single parent can't afford to pay for necessities.  Raising a child in 2023 is reported to be around $310,000.  In 1980 the cost was approx a quarter of that.  In that period of time real wages have not increased four fold.  So expecting a parent to raise a child as you have or you were raised is not as simple as 'it starts at home'.  Not every parent has a spouse.  Not every parent works a 9-5 job.  Not every parent has family near them to help with child care.  And also in reality, many of those parents who are trying their best alone come home from work exhausted.  Again, the world has changed drastically since you've raised your children.

I could go on and on for hours about how your age is showing in your post, but I think by you get my point.

[Jay Bee]

Hards… having a child is a choice… so is taking out student debt.  If you’re not cool with the economics, you need not do it.