MLB 2017 Season

[tower912]

Well, poop.  Still would have helped the cubs.

[MUBurrow]

Harsh, but fair. I'll nom my crow - he's been dominant this postseason. I remain really surprised though - in a blind analysis, I'd probably make the same mistake again. Looking at Verlander's fastball velocity chart - http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=8700&position=&pitch=FA&data=pi - it looks like a clear uptick through 2016 that continued through 2017. But halfway through the year, that trend was less clear, and without his fastball velocity, Verlander isn't a great pitcher - https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/8/12/16135278/justin-verlander-detroit-tigers-velocity-command-aging-trade-rumors-astros.

I still have my doubts that he'll be able to keep this up for any extended period after the 2017 playoffs, and certainly wouldn't feel great being on the hook for $78M over the next three years (the 'Stros aren't, they got $ from Det to send better prospects). But there's no debating he's been lights out this postseason.

[Lennys Tap]

Bump.

I'm happy to dine on some crow in Verlander's case - he's a bulldog and has always been one of my favorite pitchers.

In my defense, though, at the time of my post Verlander was 34, sitting on a 4.96 ERA through 17 starts AND had a contract that was anything but team friendly. Given those facts I'd make the same call again. Good chance I'd be wrong again, too.

[jesmu84]

Harsh, but fair. I'll nom my crow - he's been dominant this postseason. I remain really surprised though - in a blind analysis, I'd probably make the same mistake again. Looking at Verlander's fastball velocity chart - http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=8700&position=&pitch=FA&data=pi - it looks like a clear uptick through 2016 that continued through 2017. But halfway through the year, that trend was less clear, and without his fastball velocity, Verlander isn't a great pitcher - https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/8/12/16135278/justin-verlander-detroit-tigers-velocity-command-aging-trade-rumors-astros.

I still have my doubts that he'll be able to keep this up for any extended period after the 2017 playoffs, and certainly wouldn't feel great being on the hook for $78M over the next three years (the 'Stros aren't, they got $ from Det to send better prospects). But there's no debating he's been lights out this postseason.

So.. was Verlander on PEDs?

[wadesworld]

So.. was Verlander on PEDs?

No doubt he used PEDs in his career.

[B. McBannerson]

No doubt he used PEDs in his career.

Did Nolan Ryan?

[wadesworld]

Did Nolan Ryan?

Wouldn't know.  He was before my time.

[tower912]

Kate was his PED.  Seriously, he could end up being Doyle Alexander for the Astros.   For those too young to remember, in 1987, the Tigers traded a prospect to Atlanta for Doyle Alexander.  DA was lights out down the stretch, Detroit made the playoffs and lost to the Twins.  DA had one more good year and then faded away.  The prospect they traded away was John Smoltz.

Verlanders early season numbers were skewed by two brutal starts against Cleveland.  Watching him, I knew he was close to his best.  Anybody who got him was going to get a horse.  Yeah, he gave up two hits last night in 6 innings.  He will give up homers.   

[MerrittsMustache]

Kate was his PED.  Seriously, he could end up being Doyle Alexander for the Astros.   For those too young to remember, in 1987, the Tigers traded a prospect to Atlanta for Doyle Alexander.  DA was lights out down the stretch, Detroit made the playoffs and lost to the Twins.  DA had one more good year and then faded away.  The prospect they traded away was John Smoltz.

It all depends on how the WS and next season play out.

If Detroit won the WS in 1987, that trade would have been 100% worth it. Just like if Gleyber Torres becomes the best SS in baseball, that deal was worth it for the Cubs because Chapman helped them win the WS.

If the Astros win the WS behind Verlander and Daz Cameron becomes Mike Trout, the trade is still worth it. If Houston loses, Verlander fades away and the prospects they traded become studs, the deal looks much, much worse.

[Benny B]

Personally speaking, having no team to root for or against in this year's WS, the first two games have been off the charts entertaining to watch.

[MUBurrow]

So.. was Verlander on PEDs?

Not touching that with a 10 foot pole, except that given his injury history, I think attributing the 3-year gradual uptick in his fastball velocity to being fully healthy and building his strength back up is certainly somewhere on the spectrum of plausible to likely.

Verlanders early season numbers were skewed by two brutal starts against Cleveland.  Watching him, I knew he was close to his best.  Anybody who got him was going to get a horse.  Yeah, he gave up two hits last night in 6 innings.  He will give up homers.   

The caveat to the fastball velocity uptick (which again, until he shows otherwise, Verlander is entirely dependent upon to be successful) is that its tough to bet on a guy to keep that up for any prolong period of time at his age. I know there are counterexamples, but most of those counterexamples hadn't already endured multiple years of lost velocity before their age 34 season. It pretty much all boils down to whether (i) you attribute that loss of velocity to a combo of injury and disinterest that can be cured, and (ii) you think he's one of those once a decade talents that will be able to throw that hard into his age 36, 37, 38 seasons.

[TallTitan34]

Girardi gone.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

That was one of the more entertaining baseball games I've ever seen.  The WS is freakin awesome.

[naginiF]

That was a fun game.  I loved the sub 3hr game one but it didn't have nearly the drama you pointed out.  Two notes to your list:  1) watching it live, man i thought that center fielder took that ball off his dome and 2) the LAPD had cuffs on that guy before his feet hit the bullpen ground - kudos to them and the stadium security folks.

[MU82]

It all depends on how the WS and next season play out.

If Detroit won the WS in 1987, that trade would have been 100% worth it. Just like if Gleyber Torres becomes the best SS in baseball, that deal was worth it for the Cubs because Chapman helped them win the WS.

If the Astros win the WS behind Verlander and Daz Cameron becomes Mike Trout, the trade is still worth it. If Houston loses, Verlander fades away and the prospects they traded become studs, the deal looks much, much worse.

Agree 100%.

The whole idea is to win the WS - period. Some teams go 108 between winning 'em. Some teams NEVER win 'em. So the idea is to win one, and to get there taking a calculated risk is usually "worth it."

The Astros are to be commended for realizing how very close they were and getting Verlander. The Cubs the same last year with Chapman.

Heck, the same with the Astros back in 1998 when they got Randy Johnson for Freddy Garcia, Carols Guillen and John Halama. Yeah, the Astros didn't even make it out of the NLDS (the Padres beat 'em), but they had a very good team and had to go for it. Besides, what did the Mariners ever really win with Garcia, Guillen and Halama?

Within reason, you go for it.

[buckchuckler]

https://sports.yahoo.com/joe-torre-confirms-umps-blew-call-nationals-game-5-nlds-215507389.html


Stupid cubs.   

But boy, that'd hurt if I were a Nats fan.

[CTWarrior]

Cubs got Brian Butterfield (third base coach) and Chili Davis (hitting coach) from the Red Sox.  Davis has the reputation of being a great hitting coach, but basically every Red Sox hitter seemed to have a down year this year.  I wonder how much influence Ortiz had on the young guys as hitters.  Butterfield is a great 3rd base coach and was a popular guy in the clubhouse.  Think Jerry Wainwright of baseball.  First time in almost 50 years of Red Sox fandom that I cared that we're losing a 3rd base coach.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Cubs got Brian Butterfield (third base coach) and Chili Davis (hitting coach) from the Red Sox.  Davis has the reputation of being a great hitting coach, but basically every Red Sox hitter seemed to have a down year this year.  I wonder how much influence Ortiz had on the young guys as hitters.  Butterfield is a great 3rd base coach and was a popular guy in the clubhouse.  Think Jerry Wainwright of baseball.  First time in almost 50 years of Red Sox fandom that I cared that we're losing a 3rd base coach.

Thanks for the info.  Sounds like the Boston guys and Hickey are highly regarded. 

I have to think Hickey has a lot of influence on how hard the Cubs will pursue Cobb. 

[MerrittsMustache]

Thanks for the info.  Sounds like the Boston guys and Hickey are highly regarded. 

I have to think Hickey has a lot of influence on how hard the Cubs will pursue Cobb.

...and if they'll attempt to make a move for Chris Archer. The Rays could use an upgrade at 2B and DH. Happ and/or Schwarber?

[Vander Blue Man Group]

...and if they'll attempt to make a move for Chris Archer. The Rays could use an upgrade at 2B and DH. Happ and/or Schwarber?

I don't think either player alone as a headliner gets you Archer although I don't want to trade both of them either.  Archer's contract is insanely valuable but his peripherals have far outperformed his actual results the last two seasons. 

[DegenerateDish]

Reading between the lines so far of the Cubs offseason, one thing is clear, the seat is getting warm for Joe Maddon. Right or wrong, but it's pretty evident.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Reading between the lines so far of the Cubs offseason, one thing is clear, the seat is getting warm for Joe Maddon. Right or wrong, but it's pretty evident.

Strongly disagree. How so?

Epstein made it perfectly clear he's as safe as it gets.

[Dr. Blackheart]

https://sports.yahoo.com/joe-torre-confirms-umps-blew-call-nationals-game-5-nlds-215507389.html
But boy, that'd hurt if I were a Nats fan.

Another Scoop case of the misplaced comma...ouch

[DegenerateDish]

Strongly disagree. How so?

Epstein made it perfectly clear he's as safe as it gets.

Well, common sense for one. If I said "team loses in playoffs, head coach made questionable game decisions, third of coaching staff fired", you'd immediately say "wtf is going on there?".

No matter who ultimately decided to let the three guys go, there's an issue in that clubhouse. Maybe it's Maddon, maybe it's not. No matter who it was, it puts the onus on Maddon now. It seems really really strange, between the timing, and Maddon's comments.

The reaction of most Cubs fans is to believe nothing is wrong, but anyone who follows sports would suggest otherwise.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Well, common sense for one. If I said "team loses in playoffs, head coach made questionable game decisions, third of coaching staff fired", you'd immediately say "wtf is going on there?".

No matter who ultimately decided to let the three guys go, there's an issue in that clubhouse. Maybe it's Maddon, maybe it's not. No matter who it was, it puts the onus on Maddon now. It seems really really strange, between the timing, and Maddon's comments.

The reaction of most Cubs fans is to believe nothing is wrong, but anyone who follows sports would suggest otherwise.

Not true at all and the condescension towards Cubs fans not understanding what is going on is impressive.

How many articles have you read on the changes, the impetus behind them, and why Maddon answered the question about his staff the way he did?  I'm honestly curious.

None of the coaches that were let go were Maddon hires. The guys they've been replaced with are all very highly regarded.

Thinking Maddon isn't currently on the hot seat has nothing to do with being a Cubs fan.  There's zero chance he doesn't finish out his contract. Considering his age what happens after that is anyone's guess.