How MU can be a tourney team

[wadesworld]

3 can happen if we create a lot of turnovers

4 are you saying that beating a quality opponent isn't important to making the tournament?

That is true on 3, but I'm not sure that you're going to turn teams over enough to make fast break points "high."

Beating a quality opponent is important to making the Tournament, but one game is meaningless in terms of whether or not you make the Tournament.  We beat a quality opponent (NCAA Tournament team) 4 times last year and it did us no good in terms of getting to the post season.  In fact, we won at that exact same quality opponent's home and still missed all post season tournaments.  One game, good or bad, does not make or break a season.

[dgies9156]

For us to make the tournament:

1) Our senior leadership is going to have to lead and help motivate the team. That means Big Fishy has to stay out of foul trouble; JJJ has to play a huge role on this team. If Fishy doesn't stay out of foul trouble, yikes. I really believe Luke is key to this team. If he plays a big role, we'll do well.

2) We're going to have to consistently shoot close to or better than 50 percent. That will open up the lanes for dribble drives and penetration and probably improve rebounding substantially.

3) The turnovers need to fall dramatically. I agree we need to average less than 10 a game. If there was anything that killed us last year more than turnovers, I don't know what it was.

4) Our defense has to get better. The steals, deflections and just simple stops has to improve if we're going to the tournament. If we get stops at the top of the key or elsewhere on the perimeter, Luke won't foul out and See #1.

[Galway Eagle]

That is true on 3, but I'm not sure that you're going to turn teams over enough to make fast break points "high."

Beating a quality opponent is important to making the Tournament, but one game is meaningless in terms of whether or not you make the Tournament.  We beat a quality opponent (NCAA Tournament team) 4 times last year and it did us no good in terms of getting to the post season.  In fact, we won at that exact same quality opponent's home and still missed all post season tournaments.  One game, good or bad, does not make or break a season.

One game does not make or break a season this is correct (Though I think it's probably fair to say that one game against Depaul was the difference between an NIT and no NIT last year) however he didn't say that we don't need to beat anyone else he just said "beat wisconsin" maybe he believes this is a key victory that could be extremely valuable to getting us into the postseason.

[GoldenDieners32]

One game does not make or break a season this is correct (Though I think it's probably fair to say that one game against Depaul was the difference between an NIT and no NIT last year) however he didn't say that we don't need to beat anyone else he just said "beat wisconsin" maybe he believes this is a key victory that could be extremely valuable to getting us into the postseason.

Thats what i was thinking because like every year wisconsin is supposed to be "tough"

[bilsu]

For us to make the tournament:

1) Our senior leadership is going to have to lead and help motivate the team. That means Big Fishy has to stay out of foul trouble; JJJ has to play a huge role on this team. If Fishy doesn't stay out of foul trouble, yikes. I really believe Luke is key to this team. If he plays a big role, we'll do well.

2) We're going to have to consistently shoot close to or better than 50 percent. That will open up the lanes for dribble drives and penetration and probably improve rebounding substantially.

3) The turnovers need to fall dramatically. I agree we need to average less than 10 a game. If there was anything that killed us last year more than turnovers, I don't know what it was.

4) Our defense has to get better. The steals, deflections and just simple stops has to improve if we're going to the tournament. If we get stops at the top of the key or elsewhere on the perimeter, Luke won't foul out and See #1.

Maybe the key to the team is Heldt.

[MUBigDance]

Maybe the key to the team is Heldt.

Yes, Heldt will get his share of Fischer foul minutes; junk minutes; Fischer rest minutes and maybe even some rotation minutes. Could be a nice average MPG at end of season.

[MUBigDance]

Anybody know how to make muscoop display most recent first?

for example this thread...I have to jump to page 4 and then scroll to the bottom for the most recent post.

Sorry if this is a stupid question...I just don't see a way to flip it around??

any help appreciated.

EDIT: I do see the most recent post on the right column....so that helps. But I would really like the most recent first and scroll down. maybe asking too much.
thanks.

[wadesworld]

Anybody know how to make muscoop display most recent first?

for example this thread...I have to jump to page 4 and then scroll to the bottom for the most recent post.

Sorry if this is a stupid question...I just don't see a way to flip it around??

any help appreciated.

EDIT: I do see the most recent post on the right column....so that helps. But I would really like the most recent first and scroll down. maybe asking too much.
thanks.

Hit the "new" button in orange next to the thread title.  It'll take you to the first unread post in the thread.

[wadesworld]

One game does not make or break a season this is correct (Though I think it's probably fair to say that one game against Depaul was the difference between an NIT and no NIT last year) however he didn't say that we don't need to beat anyone else he just said "beat wisconsin" maybe he believes this is a key victory that could be extremely valuable to getting us into the postseason.

That's fine if that's what he means.  It's not what the thread title is about though.  "Beat Wisconsin" is not "how MU can be a tourney team."

[MUBigDance]

Here's a review from
http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/13500

MU projected #69 between buffalo and Valparaiso. I think they base a lot on last years team - HE.


Final Projection:
"Turnovers and rebounding are going to be the two areas where Marquette could falter this year. Sandy Cohen and Matt Heldt will have to provide some quality minutes when Coach Wojciechowski needs to play bigger. Cohen is just 6-6, but he can be a solid rebounder from the small forward position. However, he will see most of his time at the power forward spot. Heldt is a big 6-10, 245 pound center. He barely saw the floor as a freshman, but he is ready for a bigger role. He will be Fischer’s primary backup. Yet that does not mean all of the 6-5, 6-6 and 6-7 guards or forwards are strong enough on the glass to play beside Fischer. When a team plays smaller, they tend to play faster and that is not good for Marquette’s turnover issue. The team will often shoot more three-pointers as well. That may not be a big issue for this team, but after making very few three-pointers last year, it is a big change and Marquette may not have all of the weapons they need to make those changes and improve enough to reach the NCAA Tournament."

[dgies9156]

Here's a review from
http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/13500

MU projected #69 between buffalo and Valparaiso. I think they base a lot on last years team - HE.


Final Projection:
"Turnovers and rebounding are going to be the two areas where Marquette could falter this year. Sandy Cohen and Matt Heldt will have to provide some quality minutes when Coach Wojciechowski needs to play bigger. Cohen is just 6-6, but he can be a solid rebounder from the small forward position. However, he will see most of his time at the power forward spot. Heldt is a big 6-10, 245 pound center. He barely saw the floor as a freshman, but he is ready for a bigger role. He will be Fischer’s primary backup. Yet that does not mean all of the 6-5, 6-6 and 6-7 guards or forwards are strong enough on the glass to play beside Fischer. When a team plays smaller, they tend to play faster and that is not good for Marquette’s turnover issue. The team will often shoot more three-pointers as well. That may not be a big issue for this team, but after making very few three-pointers last year, it is a big change and Marquette may not have all of the weapons they need to make those changes and improve enough to reach the NCAA Tournament."

Much of this is idoicy. The shooting and speed comments are glittering generalities and assume we have not upgraded after the season. It also assumes we have done nothing on turnovers and interior fouls.

I like to think we're going to surprise a lot of people (but not those of us on Scoop)

[Goose]

Keefe


Amen to the Al D. The pressure they put on the ball in full court press did electrify the joint. Amazing how a five second or ten second violation does to educated basketball fans.

[Cooby Snacks]

Ran through a few numbers looking at past performance (but not projecting usage or taking experience into account or anything like that--I'm not that sophisticated).

Last season for every 100 possessions, we had approximately:
54.3 2-point attempts
23.5 3-point attempts
15 trips (trips, not shots) to the FT line. Using Pomeroy’s formula, this comes out to about 31.5 FT attempts
20 turnovers

I know, that adds up to 112.8. That’s because about 12.8% of our possessions included an offensive rebound.

Using that mix and plugging in shooting percentages, MU averaged 1.037 points per possession. JB talked earlier in this thread about 1.08 being a good target for this team. How do we get there, and is there any reason to be optimistic? Looking at each of the four factors:

Effective FG%: A year ago, MU ranked 76th nationally, with a 52% eFG%. This was buoyed by 52.4% on 2-pointers (44th in the country), and simultaneously weighed down by the 33.9% figure on threes (210th nationally).

Looking at our returning players plus Rowsey & Reinhardt’s most recent seasons, the eFG% rises to 54.3%, which would have been good for 22nd in the country. The collective 3P% jumps to 36.3%, a top-100 figure, and 3-point attempts from this group accounted for 40% of all field goal attempts (contrasted with 30% of our shots last season). The combination of taking and making more threes is a really straightforward way to improve the eFG figure. Ideally, if we’re shooting threes well, this will open up space for driving lanes and for Luke to operate, so hopefully that 2P% can stay high as well.

Turnover Rate: This absolutely has to drop. Last year MU suffered a turnover 20% of the time it had the ball, 292nd in the country. 18% would put us around the midpoint of D1, 17.5% would be heavenly. We need to lower TOs and maximize the number of shots because…

Offensive Rebounding: We’re probably not going to get very many 2nd chances. Luke was one of the best in the country last year, and Henry was OK, but that’s it. If we can even stay at the same below-average level as last year, I’d take it.

Free Throw Rate: I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a correlation between shooting more three pointers and shooting fewer free throws, but there are some notable counter examples out there. Still, I’d expect us to have fewer trips to the line…maybe 13.5 instead of 15 per 100 possessions.

So…looking at some super optimistic, pulled-off-the-back-of-the-envelope numbers, if we can have per 100 possessions…

48.8 2-point attempts (holding at that 52.4 shooting percentage)
32.5 3-point attempts (hell, shooting 37.5% thanks to the additive impact of multiple shooters on the floor plus faith in the freshmen)
13.5 trips to the line (a little over 28 FTA)
18 turnovers

We’re looking at 1.079 points per possession. Bubblicious.

Hopefully we can guard, turn teams over, and not get crushed too bad on the glass.

[Marcus92]

Love the numbers crunched, Cooby. I think it's going to be an interesting team and a fun season to watch.

[brewcity77]

Love the numbers crunched, Cooby. I think it's going to be an interesting team and a fun season to watch.

+1

Nice job, Cooby.

[Jay Bee]

15 trips (trips, not shots) to the FT line. Using Pomeroy’s formula, this comes out to about 31.5 FTA...

13.5 trips to the line (a little over 28 FTA)

So... knowing what I know about 3FGA fouls vs 1&1's, and-1's and Ken... I'm thinking you might be mixed up on this 2+ FTA's per foul thing.

[vogue65]

Thanks for the detailed breakdown, Brew. KenPom's conference rankings tell a similar story. The difference is one of perception. Providence and Seton Hall are much stronger programs today. Xavier, Creighton and Butler have been strong additions. And the conference isn't weighed down by dreck like Rutgers. But lots of fans focus only on the big names like Syracuse and Louisville.

Dont forget South Florida.

[Cooby Snacks]

So... knowing what I know about 3FGA fouls vs 1&1's, and-1's and Ken... I'm thinking you might be mixed up on this 2+ FTA's per foul thing.

Yeah. I just reversed the FT portion of how he calculates possessions (FTA*.475) without thinking, and it matched up when I plugged the numbers to compare to last season's raw ORtg, so I ran with it.

[GoldenDieners32]

WE ARE WINNING IT ALL

[brewcity77]

Obviously one issue this team has is lack of depth in the frontcourt. Now I have to assume the answer is no, but...

Is there a chance Matt Heldt and Luke Fischer could play together? Matt displayed decent range in high school. I can't remember if he had a quick enough release or enough range to extend out to the arc, but has anyone who's been able to watch him seen if he can face up at all? I've heard from a few people that Heldt has a chance to get more minutes than people expect, might part of that be in a twin tower type role with Luke manning the middle and Matt sliding to the four? Even for 5-10 minutes per game that could be a nice alternate look to throw at teams.

Without looking, I don't remember enough about Matt's high school game to know if this is a viable option, but I do remember he could hit some midrange shots and the occasional three. Not sure if the muscle he's added might limit his mobility to play that type of role, but if he can, it could be a great asset.

[Loose Cannon]

Obviously one issue this team has is lack of depth in the frontcourt. Now I have to assume the answer is no, but...

Is there a chance Matt Heldt and Luke Fischer could play together? Matt displayed decent range in high school. I can't remember if he had a quick enough release or enough range to extend out to the arc, but has anyone who's been able to watch him seen if he can face up at all? I've heard from a few people that Heldt has a chance to get more minutes than people expect, might part of that be in a twin tower type role with Luke manning the middle and Matt sliding to the four? Even for 5-10 minutes per game that could be a nice alternate look to throw at teams.

Without looking, I don't remember enough about Matt's high school game to know if this is a viable option, but I do remember he could hit some midrange shots and the occasional three. Not sure if the muscle he's added might limit his mobility to play that type of role, but if he can, it could be a great asset.

Wow, Batman and Robin at the same time. Holy Podcast!

[bilsu]

Obviously one issue this team has is lack of depth in the frontcourt. Now I have to assume the answer is no, but...

Is there a chance Matt Heldt and Luke Fischer could play together? Matt displayed decent range in high school. I can't remember if he had a quick enough release or enough range to extend out to the arc, but has anyone who's been able to watch him seen if he can face up at all? I've heard from a few people that Heldt has a chance to get more minutes than people expect, might part of that be in a twin tower type role with Luke manning the middle and Matt sliding to the four? Even for 5-10 minutes per game that could be a nice alternate look to throw at teams.

Without looking, I don't remember enough about Matt's high school game to know if this is a viable option, but I do remember he could hit some midrange shots and the occasional three. Not sure if the muscle he's added might limit his mobility to play that type of role, but if he can, it could be a great asset.

Wojo at the season ticket holder scrimmage said he was going to experiment with playing Heldt & Fischer at the same time, so it may be possible. I also said I felt that Heldt slightly out played Fischer at the scrimmage. It was interesting to see that apparently Heldt started in the Dayton scrimmage. Now, I really do not expect Heldt to start over Fischer, but if he has truly become an effective player it would not surprise me to see both Fischer in Heldt in the game together against our really tall opponents such as Creighton.

[keefe]

Keefe


Amen to the Al D. The pressure they put on the ball in full court press did electrify the joint. Amazing how a five second or ten second violation does to educated basketball fans.

Goose

Al always downplayed his ability as a coach but he was an innovator in terms of defensive sets and schemes. Watching our full court press was a thing of beauty. He changed the game through his use of zones that confounded the enemy. Marquette was always in the top three in terms of defensive efficiency - we held opponents to less than 50 ppg season after season.

I remember people said that Al gave Butrym a scholarship for one reason - to defend the inbound play.

[Goose]

Keefe

Best part of Al's D was when full court press was used. They delivered on high % when they went full court or half court trap. Simply amazing how it could change a game in 10 seconds.

Have to be honest, I love Rick Pitino's D because I believe it is modern day version of Al used to do. Nothing rocks the joint like high pressure, trapping D.

[Jay Bee]

Have to be honest, I love Rick Pitino's D

Quick, but effective aiiiina?