Bracketology Thread 2018-19

[Benny B]

The committee will separate the top two BE teams.  The only way Marquette plays Nova in the tournament is if both make the Final Four.

Not to mention, teams meeting three times during the season cannot face each other until the regional finals.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Not to mention, teams meeting three times during the season cannot face each other until the regional finals.

Which is one of the reasons why Palm's brackets are dogsh*t and nobody should take them remotely seriously

[MUfanatic45]

I'd much rather play Cincy than the Clones.

Miss State too imo

[mu03eng]

I'd much rather play Cincy than the Clones.

Miss State too imo

I'd love to play anyone in the SEC other than Kentucky

[Cheeks]

I'd love to play anyone in the SEC other than Kentucky

Mississippi State, Tennessee, no thanks

[Cheeks]

Which is one of the reasons why Palm's brackets are dogsh*t and nobody should take them remotely seriously

CBS begs to differ with you.  Nobody, never, always = lazy

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Mississippi State, Tennessee, no thanks

If Marquette is scared to play Mississippi State,  might as well turn down the invite.  I'm not saying it'd be an easy game but definitely not one to be scared of.

[Silkk the Shaka]

CBS begs to differ with you.  Nobody, never, always = lazy

Nobody cares that Palm answers your emails. How's that for lazy?

Or the fact that he was still quoting RPI instead of NET until a week ago? Does that count as lazy?

[Cheeks]

Nobody cares that Palm answers your emails. How's that for lazy?

Or the fact that he was still quoting RPI instead of NET until a week ago? Does that count as lazy?

You said I was on ignore a few days ago...I'm blushing that you took me off...you complete me. 

Palm said why he was using RPI, for the same reason Team Rankings and others are ALSO using RPI because of the lack of a track record with NET Rankings.  Until they have actual data points and see how the committee uses it and the correlation to seeds, they are going with what they have data on it. He is hardly alone, there are a number of them doing it.

As an example, here is MU's bracketology projections by Team Rankings.  https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/marquette-golden-eagles/bracketology

TR clearly points out WHY they are using RPI (little blue rectangle box at the top).  Palm, is using NET and RPI, along with other metrics.   

[mu03eng]

Mississippi State, Tennessee, no thanks

Tennessee's conference schedule until they played Kentucky was easier than Gonzaga's. I'm not saying they are a paper tiger, but they are one of the more beatable top 4 seeds IMO. Not saying we would beat them but we also shouldn't be scared to play them. Quite frankly other than a full strength Duke or a Gonazaga, I think MU matches up well with any of the top 15 teams out there.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Tennessee's conference schedule until they played Kentucky was easier than Gonzaga's. I'm not saying they are a paper tiger, but they are one of the more beatable top 4 seeds IMO. Not saying we would beat them but we also shouldn't be scared to play them. Quite frankly other than a full strength Duke or a Gonazaga, I think MU matches up well with any of the top 15 teams out there.

Williams and Schofield are really really good. But yah, if we end up a 3, I won't be devastated if Tennessee is the 2 in our region. 

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Williams and Schofield are really really good. But yah, if we end up a 3, I won't be devastated if Tennessee is the 2 in our region.

The funny thing about Schofield is that he always played second fiddle to Milik Yarbrough while at Zion-Benton. While Yarbrough has been solid at Illinois St. he certainly isn't one of the best players on a top-10 team.

[SaveOD238]

The funny thing about Schofield is that he always played second fiddle to Milik Yarbrough while at Zion-Benton. While Yarbrough has been solid at Illinois St. he certainly isn't one of the best players on a top-10 team.

I did not know Schofield was a ZeeBee.  They always had good hoops when I was at Warren in the same conference.

But more importantly, I updated my Locations Spreadsheet, but this time I went with the Bracket Matrix rankings. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1roateBVil2mn1EhYLccIh0bl2PGDFuP3LuCmuCjDCsk/edit?usp=sharing

Of note, now Marquette is favored to get its first choice in Des Moines.  Stay ahead of Purdue, Kansas, and Wisconsin and we have a good shot to go to Iowa.

However, those teams on the 4 line are screwed when it comes to location.  All four of them had their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th locations blocked by higher teams, and Florida St got stuck flying to San Jose, which was their last choice.

Hartford is still one of the last to fill up.  While there are East coast squads in the top 16, there aren't any north of the Mason-Dixon that would be natural fits for Hartford, like Cuse, UConn, St. Johns, Maryland, or Villanova would be.

[Cheeks]

Tennessee's conference schedule until they played Kentucky was easier than Gonzaga's. I'm not saying they are a paper tiger, but they are one of the more beatable top 4 seeds IMO. Not saying we would beat them but we also shouldn't be scared to play them. Quite frankly other than a full strength Duke or a Gonazaga, I think MU matches up well with any of the top 15 teams out there.

Fair enough, and actually I meant Florida and not MSU.  Florida is top 15 defense.  In the tourney when things start to pucker up, good defensive teams that find a way to get stops are scary.  Length is the other thing that has me concerned.

FSU, Texas Tech, UVA, Michigan State, Maryland   I realize many of these are not SEC schools, in general I'd rather avoid solid defensive teams more than solid offensive teams....unless you do both well and I'd rather avoid altogether. 

[Benny B]

So as long as we're insisting on jerking around with the Palm, here's Benny's prognostication for most excellent ideal MU tourney path:

Hartford
vs. 14-LUC
vs. 11-Minnesota

Kansas City
vs. 7-Virginny Polytechnickin Edumacation Insteetushun
vs. 4-LSU

Minneapolis
vs. 2-Tennessee
vs. 3-Texas Tech

Final Score: TTU 77; MU 91

[Lennys Tap]

My guess is that it will be very unlikely for us to win the whole thing without having to play a team with length or the ability to play defense. It's hard to win 6 games without winning a "bad matchup". That talk is much ado about nothing.

[Silkk the Shaka]

My guess is that it will be very unlikely for us to win the whole thing without having to play a team with length or the ability to play defense. It's hard to win 6 games without winning a "bad matchup". That talk is much ado about nothing.

Agreed, but postponing the bad matchups as long as possible gives us a better chance

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Williams and Schofield are really really good. But yah, if we end up a 3, I won't be devastated if Tennessee is the 2 in our region.

I see tennessee like a villanova, clearly better but similar, in the sense that they have two pros n the rest good but nothing special.  Very beatable.

[the eagle]

The committee will separate the top two BE teams.  The only way Marquette plays Nova in the tournament is if both make the Final Four.

Is the committee really sitting around saying “hey I know we have 68 of these to get through, and these two teams are 4 seeds apart, but we should keep them separated”

[GooooMarquette]

So as long as we're insisting on jerking around with the Palm, here's Benny's prognostication for most excellent ideal MU tourney path:

Hartford
vs. 14-LUC
vs. 11-Minnesota

Kansas City
vs. 7-Virginny Polytechnickin Edumacation Insteetushun
vs. 4-LSU

Minneapolis
vs. 2-Tennessee
vs. 3-Texas Tech

Final Score: TTU 77; MU 91

You have a way with words, Benny....

[mu03eng]

Is the committee really sitting around saying “hey I know we have 68 of these to get through, and these two teams are 4 seeds apart, but we should keep them separated”

It is literally their job.

Edit: I once read somewhere that the bracketing process actually takes weeks and the final bracket is 98% done before conference championship weekend. Where Nova and MU are slotted will largely decided on Friday or Saturday of championship weekend.

[BM1090]

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Is the committee really sitting around saying “hey I know we have 68 of these to get through, and these two teams are 4 seeds apart, but we should keep them separated”

I reviewed the bracketing procedure.  The earliest teams from the same conference can meet:

1) In the 2nd round if they played once.
2) In the regional semifinals  (Sweet 16) if they played twice (regular season and conference tournament).
3) In the regional finals (Elite 8) if they play 3 times (regular season and conference tournament).

So if Marquette and Villanova do not play each other in the conference tournament, they could be slotted the way Palm has them in his latest bracket.

However,  that would still be considered poor form.  The committee would try to avoid doing so, as long as the rest of the bracket is not disrupted.

[Benny B]

It is literally their job.

Edit: I once read somewhere that the bracketing process actually takes weeks and the final bracket is 98% done before conference championship weekend. Where Nova and MU are slotted will largely decided on Friday or Saturday of championship weekend.

Candidly, it would be virtually impossible for the Selection Committee to pull off an entire tournament bracket if they left everything to Selection Weekend.  98% might be a relative figure, but yes, I would agree that Phase I (Selecting the Teams) and Phase II (S-Curve) is substantially complete by Selection Thursday Afternoon and Phase III (Bracketing) is well underway by Selection Friday morning. 

In fact, I would estimate that before the committee members even arrive in Indianapolis, Phase I is probably 98% complete; IOW, the committee will arrive to the Adam's Mark having already produced a sheet of a couple dozen locks ("Field") and another 2-3 dozen teams still "Under Consideration."  Chances are, if you're not on either list by Selection Monday, you better damn well win your conference tournament.

There are always going to be a few teams that could play their way in or out of the Field in the 96 hours leading up to the Selection Show, but the generally, enough teams will be solidly in the Field by Friday such that the beginning of the bracket, at the very least the protected seeds and the known AQ's from one-bid conferences, will already be taking shape.

All that said... what happens on Saturday and Sunday can have an effect, even for a team like MU... for example, if MU is a 3-seed in Tulsa on Saturday morning, a BET win over Nova that evening - perhaps coupled with a Moo U, KU, Tenn and Houston bed-defecation - could easily mean a promotion to a 2-seed in Des Moines (especially if whoever was on the 2-line is an easy swap with MU without triggering a bunch of other necessary changes).

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I definitely feel like that was the case in 2013 as well Benny. Thought Marquette lost their chance for a 3 seed after their god awful showing in the BET. That is when I learned how little conference tourney results actually matter if you've been a lock since January.