Bracketology Thread 2018-19

[Mr. Nielsen]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CBBonFOX/status/1095112213822504961

[jsglow]

UNC is at Wake this weekend. I don't expect them to drop this week in the polls. They might in the S-Curve if MSU beats Wisconsin tomorrow, but I don't have them dropping based on this result.

Brew, it's all about the S curve right now.  Come to think about it, that's a helluva lot more fun that bubble watching.   

[Cheeks]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CBBonFOX/status/1095112213822504961

St John’s awaits potentially

[brewcity77]

St John’s awaits potentially

They wouldn't do that, especially with just 3 Big East teams in the field.

[Cheeks]

They wouldn't do that, especially with just 3 Big East teams in the field.

Not that early, I agree, but could happen.  I remember Memphis playing an opponent 4 times and winning all 4 in a season when we were in a conference together. 

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Well, two seed doesn't seem that far out of reach now.

[jsglow]

Just so you guys know, crashingthedance is up and running.  They don't usually start until early February.

https://crashingthedance.com/

[jficke13]

They wouldn't do that, especially with just 3 Big East teams in the field.

I thought there was some rule where unless forced to by sheer number of bids, no conference teams can be paired to face each other in rounds 1 or 2. I seem to recall something about this in the Old Big East years where the tourney was just flooded w/ BE teams.

[HowardsWorld]

I thought there was some rule where unless forced to by sheer number of bids, no conference teams can be paired to face each other in rounds 1 or 2. I seem to recall something about this in the Old Big East years where the tourney was just flooded w/ BE teams.

You are correct they are not supposed to face conference teams until the S16. 2011 when MU made the tournament as an 11 seed there were 10 other teams from the big east in it. In the second round they faced Syracuse another Big east school and beat them!

[cheebs09]

Just so you guys know, crashingthedance is up and running.  They don't usually start until early February.

https://crashingthedance.com/

Thanks for posting. Middle of the 3rd seed line which I’ll sign up for. We’ve had some success there.

I’m most surprised that site has Wisconsin as a 7 seed. That’s as low as I’ve seen them.

[UWW2MU]

Just so you guys know, crashingthedance is up and running.  They don't usually start until early February.

https://crashingthedance.com/

They still use RPI though instead of NET?   That may sway their data.

[BM1090]

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2019/02/14/bracketology-happy-valentines-day-for-duke-lsu/

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

[wadesworld]

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2019/02/14/bracketology-happy-valentines-day-for-duke-lsu/

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

I find it very unlikely there will be 4 Big East teams in 1 region and 0 Big East teams in the other 3 regions.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2019/02/14/bracketology-happy-valentines-day-for-duke-lsu/

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

Damn. Bracketville has Seton Hall and St. John's pretty comfortably in the tournament. They have Butler in the First Four Out, Georgetown in the Next Four Out, and DePaul in the Next Next Next Four out. No mentions of Creighton, Providence, or Xavier (duh). I was optimistic about DePaul and not so optimistic about Creighton to start the season, but I never imagined to ever see them listed above all three of those teams in an S-Curve this season.

[Cheeks]

They still use RPI though instead of NET?   That may sway their data.

They admit that is the case.   "While using RPI rather than NET may lead to less accurate results, the limited amount of available NET data would likely do the same. Here's hoping the NCAA will provide more details about NET over the coming weeks."

There are some wild swings with RPI vs NET.  This was from a few weeks ago

BIGGEST DIFFERENCES, RPI versus NET in favor of RPI

Kansas (1, 19)
Oklahoma (6, 30)
Maryland (10, 20)
Nevada (11, 23)
Kansas State (13, 35)
TCU (16, 31)
Villanova (19, 28)
Florida State (22, 33)
Temple (26, 61)
VCU (30, 51)
Seton Hall (37, 56)
Alabama (39, 50)
Minnesota (40, 67)
UNCG (41, 58)
Davidson (43, 71)
Georgia State (44, 120)
New Mexico State (48, 78)
Arizona State (49, 72)

BIGGEST DIFFERENCES, RPI versus NET in favor of NET

Gonzaga (12, 3)
Kentucky (21, 8)
Virginia Tech (25, 9)
Texas Tech (28, 11)
Nebraska (47, 15)
North Carolina State (111, 27)
Wofford (45, 29)
Wisconsin (34, 16)
Indiana (51, 34)
Florida (81, 36)
San Francisco (59, 39)
Ohio State (54, 40)
Utah State (60, 41)
Murray State (87, 43)
St. Mary’s (82, 49)

[BM1090]

I find it very unlikely there will be 4 Big East teams in 1 region and 0 Big East teams in the other 3 regions.

Not sure what you're referring to, but Dave has the 4 Big East teams spread out among 3 regions in the link I provided

[jsglow]

I've followed CTD for years.  As of this morning they have the Johnnies at 'At Large - 21, Hall - 30, and Butler - 36, the very last spot.  The Hall and the Dawgs need some success in coming weeks.  Creighton is still on the board, and in striking distance, although losing last night at X is gonna leave a mark once the update comes out.  Friars, barely.  Everyone else: toast.

[Benny B]

I find it very unlikely there will be 4 Big East teams in 1 region and 0 Big East teams in the other 3 regions.

Such is why the S-Curve is far from the bottom line.  In fact, it's only step 2 ("Seeding") of the selection committee's process... there's also a step 3 ("Bracketing") that is more complex than the other two steps combined.

Bracketing Rule #1: "Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines."  This means - provided MU and Nova are both top 4 seeds - Nova and MU will not be in the same region.  But that does mean that unless St. John's or SHU can sneak onto the 4-line, you could have 3 BE teams in one region and 1 in another if the committee stopped here.

Then there's also this little nugget, which happens to be Bracketing Rule #2...

"Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament."  This actually favors the Big East because of the H&H scheduling... let's say SHU, SJU, MU and Nova all come out of the BE; if each of those four teams match up with at least one other in the BET, then you could only have a maximum of two BE teams per region.  But if those were the four teams in the BET semifinals, that increases the chances that the BE would be represented in three or more different regions.

But don't forget about rules #3 and #4:

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional semifinals if they played each other twice during the regular season and conference tournament.

Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the second round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament

Frankly, even if only four teams come out of the BE, the simple math favors at least three different regions.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-10-19/how-field-68-teams-picked-march-madness

[MUBigDance]

Such is why the S-Curve is far from the bottom line.  In fact, it's only step 2 ("Seeding") of the selection committee's process... there's also a step 3 ("Bracketing") that is more complex than the other two steps combined.

Bracketing Rule #1:...#2...#3 and #4...

... thanks for the link. Intuitively I figured something like these were being followed but didn't know they codified them. I imagine they have a great computer program that takes all the stuff seeds,"S", location,bracketing rules,etc... and generates different potential brackets with anomalies highlighted.  Sort of like MLB, NBA regular season schedules.

[Benny B]

... thanks for the link. Intuitively I figured something like these were being followed but didn't know they codified them. I imagine they have a great computer program that takes all the stuff seeds,"S", location,bracketing rules,etc... and generates different potential brackets with anomalies highlighted.  Sort of like MLB, NBA regular season schedules.

Nope.  It's simply 10 people sequestered at the Adam's Mark in downtown Indy working through the bracket for as long as it takes.  The only work the computers are doing is to display the data, stats, results, etc. for the committee members.  They might have a smart-board that allows them to shift names and sites around the bracket which the touch of a finger, but it's the humans populating that data, not the computers.

[CTWarrior]

You are correct they are not supposed to face conference teams until the S16. 2011 when MU made the tournament as an 11 seed there were 10 other teams from the big east in it. In the second round they faced Syracuse another Big east school and beat them!

As long as there aren't more than 16 teams in a conference, you could always make a bracket where no teams faces a conference foe until the round of 16.  They allow round of 32 matchups because not to would be a pain the bracketing neck and would also cause movement in seeds and increase the difficulty of preserving the rules for protecting the top 4 seeds from unfavorable geography in the rounds of 64 and 32.

[LoudMouth]

Alright someone who has time and educated enough...take a look at http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ and let me know where the 11 teams in front of us would play and where you think we would be. I need to see who I need to root against in order to get Des Moines

[Benny B]

Alright someone who has time and educated enough...take a look at http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ and let me know where the 11 teams in front of us would play and where you think we would be. I need to see who I need to root against in order to get Des Moines

From the top down, based strictly on geography... not taking anything else into account:

Columbia - Duke, Virginia
Columbus - Tennessee, Michigan
Jacksonville - North Carolina, Louisville
Des Moines - Kentucky, Michigan State
Tulsa - Kansas, Houston
Hartford - Purdue, Marquette
Salt Lake - Wisconsin, Gonzaga
San Jose - LSU, Nevada

EDITED

[LoudMouth]

From the top down, based strictly on geography... not taking anything else into account:

Columbia - Duke, Virginia
Columbus - Tennessee, Michigan
Jacksonville - North Carolina, Louisville
Des Moines - Kentucky, Michigan State
Tulsa - Kansas, Houston
Hartford - Purdue, Marquette
Salt Lake - Wisconsin, LSU
San Jose - Gonzaga, Nevada

Yeah that is what I am afraid of

[HowardsWorld]

From the top down, based strictly on geography... not taking anything else into account:

Columbia - Duke, Virginia
Columbus - Tennessee, Michigan
Jacksonville - North Carolina, Louisville
Des Moines - Kentucky, Michigan State
Tulsa - Kansas, Houston
Hartford - Purdue, Marquette
Salt Lake - Wisconsin, LSU
San Jose - Gonzaga, Nevada

LOL at Wisconsin being a 4 seed. Not a chance after the last 2 games.