Bracketology Thread 2018-19

[Herman Cain]

This is not really that surprising at least to me. I called this nearly 3 weeks ago. I believe barring a team not named Marquette or Nova winning the BET that Seton Hall and St. Johns are the only two teams remaining that have a chance. With the only shot being if either one upset Marquette or Nova from this point forward.. There just are too many bad teams in the conference this year to pick up quality wins. Seton Hall and St. Johns both have 2 shots remaining. Every loss for those teams at this point is a bad loss.

This is the first year of the NET. The NCAA has not published the NET formula. So the bracket people may not be as accurate as in years past. It may take a year to see how the tournament selection committee works under this new paradigm.

I disagree very strongly.  And there really aren't any BAD teams in the conference at all.  There are 2 great teams.  And then 6 good to solid teams, and 2 decent to mediocre teams.  None of them are bad. 

A couple of the 6 good to solid teams will go on a run. Also worth noting that several of those teams have quality wins on their non conference resume.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

First bubble watch of the season:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/25923557/welcome-start-madness

[LoudMouth]

First bubble watch of the season:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/25923557/welcome-start-madness

Petty but how is Purdue and Kansas a lock and we are a "should be in"?

[LoudMouth]

Also a very interesting triple negative while describing Wisconsin:

"The Badgers beat Michigan, their road victory at Iowa keeps improving with age and Ethan Happ and his eager minions are above .500 (5-4) in Quad 1 games. All of which is to say, no, you likely won't be seeing Wisconsin in non-lock territory for much longer."

[LoudMouth]

Last one...everything about the write ups are sadly wrong.

For Marquette:
"In particular, Marquette's wins in 2018-19 have shown an uncanny tendency to look better with age, as vanquished foes such as Louisville, Kansas State, Wisconsin and Buffalo have charted upward trajectories as the season's progressed."

Louisville is the only game that has aged well. While the other games haven't aged poorly, every other team has gone down in the rankings since.

[HowardsWorld]

I always love articles like this when writers feel the need to point out they were missing stars. This is no different than Golden State Warriors. Oh you were short handed? You mean Duke couldn't beat Syracuse with the top 3 recruits from last year but lets blame the loss on the point guard who wouldn't have made a difference. 

Syracuse Orange

The official motto of Syracuse in 2019 is "We won at Duke." That's an excellent motto (yes, yes, the Blue Devils were short-handed, duly noted), one that will balance some demerits -- such as the four Orange losses in Quads 2 and 3. Not to mention few Bubble Watch teams are blessed with as many upcoming opportunities: Florida State (see previous item), Louisville, Duke and Virginia are all heading to the Carrier Dome in the next few weeks.

[MUDPT]

http://barttorvik.com/tranketology.php

Updates after every game. Also predicting based off of predictions for the season. You can also hover over the first 4 seeds to see which pod they would be assigned to.

[forgetful]

First bubble watch of the season:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/25923557/welcome-start-madness

The Big East bias is evident. There are 10 locks. Only 2 of the top 10 teams in the AP (Nevada and MU) are not locks. Instead they have Kansas (struggling of late) and Purdue as locks.

If "lock" means teams that no matter what will be in (meaning they lose every remaining game still in tournament), then there are no locks right now. If you mean statistically improbable, then if Purdue and Kansas are locks, so is MU.

[UWW2MU]

There is a lot of season yet to play... but even with that, I just don't see any team other than St. Johns or Seton Hall making a run good enough to overcome what they've done so far.  I was really holding out hope, but I spent time today looking at their team sheets in detail and I just don't see it happening for anyone beyond that.

[BM1090]

Eamonn Brennan now does bubble watch for The Athletic. He used to do it for ESPN and was really the first to run with the extensive bubble watch coverage. His is far, far better, in my opinion.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

There is a lot of season yet to play... but even with that, I just don't see any team other than St. Johns or Seton Hall making a run good enough to overcome what they've done so far.  I was really holding out hope, but I spent time today looking at their team sheets in detail and I just don't see it happening for anyone beyond that.

The thing you're ignoring is the other teams around the bubble. 

[sailwi]

I signred up for the Athletic so I could read the Hauser story a few weeks ago with the intent of cancelling after the trial period but the writing is very good and lots of good NCAA basketball stories.  Well worth the 65 a year IMO so Im keeping it.

Surprising to see how many writers ESPN let go of in the last year, the good ones ended up at the Athletic, Andy Katz didn't.

[brewcity77]

Petty but how is Purdue and Kansas a lock and we are a "should be in"?

I don't think Purdue is a lock. At 16-16, they could get left out assuming they lose out. Kansas losing out would be 17-15 and in. They really look like a lock. Their resume is very strong and there aren't any really bad potential losses left on their schedule.

I think we need one more win. 20-12 (9-9) with our non-con would be enough. 19 wins probably does it, but 20 would be a guarantee.

[UWW2MU]

The thing you're ignoring is the other teams around the bubble.

That is kind of what I went through.   I didn't check them all, but I did spot checks of various other bubble teams.   I suppose if any of them went on a tear and won out there is that... but otherwise I just don't see it happening.   I'm not saying impossible, but at this point in time, I'm putting it in the unlikely bucket.

[MarquetteDano]

I don't think Purdue is a lock. At 16-16, they could get left out assuming they lose out. Kansas losing out would be 17-15 and in. They really look like a lock. Their resume is very strong and there aren't any really bad potential losses left on their schedule.

I think we need one more win. 20-12 (9-9) with our non-con would be enough. 19 wins probably does it, but 20 would be a guarantee.

I always wonder when they say "lock" this early in the season they assume said team will win at least a few.  If they had 10 games left they always assume they go 2-8 at a minimum.  Now by mid Feb lock means if they lose out and still get an at large.

[jsglow]

Lets not worry guys. Lets allow the Markus 'Bucky' slight and the BEast disrespect to fuel a double digit win tonight.  The Johnnies deserve a beatdown.

[Spotcheck Billy]

I wonder if Markus will see that.

[forgetful]

I always wonder when they say "lock" this early in the season they assume said team will win at least a few.  If they had 10 games left they always assume they go 2-8 at a minimum.  Now by mid Feb lock means if they lose out and still get an at large.

I think you are right, but if that is the case, then MU and Nova are both locks at this point. A 21-10 (10-8) MU team, and 20-11 (11-7) Nova team are both dancing. They'd be a bubbly, but there are no bad losses possible for either of them from hear on out.

I don't think Purdue is a lock. At 16-16, they could get left out assuming they lose out. Kansas losing out would be 17-15 and in. They really look like a lock. Their resume is very strong and there aren't any really bad potential losses left on their schedule.

I think we need one more win. 20-12 (9-9) with our non-con would be enough. 19 wins probably does it, but 20 would be a guarantee.

You might be right, but I'm not sure a 17-15 (6-12) Kansas team is in. Just don't see them letting a team 6 games below 0.500 in conference into the dance.

[fjm]

Dumb writers write dumb things. But hey can’t blame them for not investigating the BEast very well.

Having said that. We got this. I’m
Hoping for a 4 seed at worst. Let’s do dis.

[lawdog77]

I dont get the love for Texas...12-10?  With home losses to Providence and Radford, and a losses to Georgia and OSU?

[Pepe Sylvia]

They have some really good wins. Those can be hard to come by when you get to teams at the bottom of the s-curve

[brewcity77]

You might be right, but I'm not sure a 17-15 (6-12) Kansas team is in. Just don't see them letting a team 6 games below 0.500 in conference into the dance.

They say they ignore conference standings. Where KU stands out is 3 numbers. 5, 8, 13. That's the number of Q1A wins, total Q1 wins, and Q1+2 wins they already have. No one close to the bubble would be able to compete with that.

I dont get the love for Texas...12-10?  With home losses to Providence and Radford, and a losses to Georgia and OSU?

Like Pepe said, it's the big wins. They've got wins over UNC, Purdue, Kansas, & K-State. That gives them a lot of leeway other teams just don't have.

[GooooMarquette]

Like Pepe said, it's the big wins. They've got wins over UNC, Purdue, Kansas, & K-State. That gives them a lot of leeway other teams just don't have.

How on earth does a team beat UNC, Purdue, KU and KSU...and lose to PC, Radford, UGa and tOSU?

I get teams having a couple of really bad (or good) games, but UT seems like the epitome of playing up or down to their competition every time. On the plus side, it would seem to guarantee close games in the Dance. 

[MUBigDance]

Speaking of KState, win looking good these days.

Question about Regions. Where do you think MU lands if ~4 seed? Whats our natural region? Is it a crapshoot? Do these bracket guys have some special knowledge when it comes to placement?

South=Louisville,Midwest=KansasCity,East=Washington ... We are equally close to each...so does it matter.

Reason I ask is that the Washington or KC ones I could really make if we go to the Sweet-16.  Is there any help to someone who want to plan ahead?

[MarquetteDano]

Speaking of KState, win looking good these days.

Question about Regions. Where do you think MU lands if ~4 seed? Whats our natural region? Is it a crapshoot? Do these bracket guys have some special knowledge when it comes to placement?

South=Louisville,Midwest=KansasCity,East=Washington ... We are equally close to each...so does it matter.

Reason I ask is that the Washington or KC ones I could really make if we go to the Sweet-16.  Is there any help to someone who want to plan ahead?

To me the pod is much more important than the region.  We could have a lot of fans in Des Moines or Columbus.  That is when the crowd could help the team versus a similarly matched foe.  Once it gets to the actual regionals we are going to be going against very good teams and the opposing team will probably have plenty of their own fans.