Chances NCAA Tournament Gets Cancelled?

[muguru]

The debate over who would have really won the 2020 NCAA tournament will live on forever

[NickelDimer]

Has anyone hear talked to actual everyday heath professionals???   I have talked to many, none are freaking out or panicked!!!!

You’re not hereing from the right professionals

[drewm88]

Tournament will be played. Some (most?) with no fans. Don't expect fans Saturday night at MSG either.

That's just my guess, but some of you are kind of shockingly clueless. Read the writing on the wall.

[Benny B]

Dayton and Cleveland sites will officially be played with no fans, per Ohio Governor Mike DeWine.

If this is indeed the case, I suspect - at the very least - Albany, Spokane and Sacramento will end up with similar directives.
NCAA tournament will happen, but there are going to be a lot of empty arenas.

Good news is that if MU has to play Gonzaga, at least this will wipe out their home-court advantage.


Ergo, in answer to the question, 10-20% chance the tournament is cancelled, 100% the tournament will be played with no fans at some sites, 80-90% chance the tournament will be played with no fans at all through the regional round.  50% chance the Final Four is played in front of some fans.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Tournament will be played. Some (most?) with no fans. Don't expect fans Saturday night at MSG either.

That's just my guess, but some of you are kind of shockingly clueless. Read the writing on the wall.

BET goes on...

http://www.bigeast.com/news/2020/3/9/mens-basketball-statement-regarding-big-east-tournament-at-madison-square-garden.aspx

[brewcity77]

I don't think there's any way the tournament is cancelled unless this takes a significantly worse turn fast. They can eat the ticket revenue, but not the loss of the television contract.

[muguru]

BET could cancel

https://www.nj.com/setonhall/2020/03/march-madness-2020-big-east-considering-playing-without-fans-or-canceling-tournament-in-fluid-situation.html

[21rooster]

The comparison to the seasonal flu using absolute numbers is way too simplistic. It really comes down to two variables: mortality rate times number of people infected. In light of the lack of effective treatments at this point (unlike the seasonal flu), they cannot control the mortality rate. As of last week, the mortality rate (deaths divided by known infection) was 3.4%. Many people rightly argue that this morbidity rate is inflated, as the death figure is accurate while the infection rate is underreported. However, there is a counterargument that is often ignored. This mortality rate is effective when discussing a seasoned illness, but it is less effective when evaluating a relatively new virus. Why? Because the number of infected cases includes a significant number of people that are still a "work in process." A more accurate assessment compares the number of deaths to the number of individuals who have "exited" the virus, either via death or a healthy diagnosis. This rate is well above 5%. This compares to a seasonal flu death rate of 0.1% last year.

If you can't control the mortality rate at this point (and it is considerably higher than the seasonal flu), there is only one variable that you can influence: the infection rate. Are we going to stop the spread of the disease? No. It will be in every major city by the time we all return from Easter break. But we are able to slow the spread of the disease. The simplest way to slow the spread of the disease is by taking the normal steps that everyone talks about: wash your hands, don't touch your face and stay home from work if you are sick. But there clearly are other ways to slow the progression. One of those ways is to limit situations where people are traveling throughout the country to congregate in one common place, potentially returning to their communities with the virus. Is the cancellation of a basketball tournament (or simply fans at a basketball tournament) overkill? Possibly. But this example shows how quickly things can turn.

I had the decision to attend one of two conferences last week. I was very lucky in my choice. If I had attended the other conference, I know exactly which management teams I would have met with. For one of those management teams, one of the three individuals in attendance now has a confirmed case of COVID-19. Last week, people still weren't taking the virus seriously. At the conference I did attend, there were a couple people not shaking hands, but most of us were shrugging it off. I would have shaken hands with the infected individual in my small group meeting. Fast forward to the weekend. I was back home, coaching my son's basketball team, standing in the high five line after the game. Since the Archdiocese of Milwaukee (unlike Green Bay) has not removed the Sign of Peace, I was shaking hands with everyone around me, include my son with mild asthma and the elderly couple in front of me. To the point someone made about those impacted - yes, I would have probably been fine, though I did fall into the obese category (another risk factor less frequently discussed because the virus is new to the United States) in my wellness check. But I can't necessarily say the same thing about my son or the elderly couple in front of me. I can't imagine how guilty I would have felt if I was the one who brought it to my community, particularly the basketball team, my son or that elderly couple...or the kid at my son's school who is battling cancer. It's not about me or you, it's about the people around us and our parents. My dad is in his upper 70s with metastatic cancer - this virus is not his friend.

The idea here is to hit the pause button while we scramble to get enough testing kits (we are grossly undersupplied), work on a vaccine (which is further away than we think) and find a somewhat effective treatment. I really don't want to see the games cancelled (or fans not allowed), but let's not be so dismissive of the legitimate rationale for doing so.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

BET could cancel

https://www.nj.com/setonhall/2020/03/march-madness-2020-big-east-considering-playing-without-fans-or-canceling-tournament-in-fluid-situation.html

I support BET with no fans.  Would remove inherent home court advantage SH is almost certainly going to have. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

I support BET with no fans.  Would remove inherent home court advantage SH is almost certainly going to have.

Only if James Breeding is infected...

[muguru]

I support BET with no fans.  Would remove inherent home court advantage SH is almost certainly going to have.

Yeah but in all honesty how many games are they going to win anyway?? One, maybe 2 over Creighton without Zegs??

[MUDPT]

I work in a hospital with lots of doctors.  None of them are “freaking out.” All of them are very concerned with the influx of patients, lack of supplies, etc.. It’s the major reason why everyone is trying to flatten the curve.

[drewm88]

BET goes on...

http://www.bigeast.com/news/2020/3/9/mens-basketball-statement-regarding-big-east-tournament-at-madison-square-garden.aspx

That's from yesterday. Stu Jackson has already made it clear today all options are on the table according to the article guru posted.

There's a "whole containment zone" on New Rochelle, which is about 15 miles from MSG. This thing is getting worse, not better.

[panda]

I work in a hospital with lots of doctors.  None of them are “freaking out.” All of them are very concerned with the influx of patients, lack of supplies, etc.. It’s the major reason why everyone is trying to flatten the curve.

The only doctors freaking out are the ones going on cable news channels pushing an agenda....

The bigger concern is the drain of medical care supplies etc.

[lawdog77]

Has anyone hear talked to actual everyday heath professionals???   I have talked to many, none are freaking out or panicked!!!!

Yes. One of my best friends is a prominent physician/suregeon in a large city in Texas. He is worried as sh!t. All it takes a few contagious people to get into one of these large crowds, and BOOM. The hospitals do not have the capacity, and he has moved his family out to their ranch in the country for the next 60 days.

[GB Warrior]

Has anyone hear talked to actual everyday heath professionals???   I have talked to many, none are freaking out or panicked!!!!

Yes, and they are both worried about the lack of preparedness on an individual level, but also the lack of institutional preparedness to scale with the influx of cases. The head of the CDC said they aren't pursuing rapid 'drive-thru' tests because they want to allow people to work with their PCP. This is potentially a stress-test on that system like we haven't seen in a long time.

All sorts of contingencies that need to be worked out - what if we run out of beds, vent techs, etc. Do we close clinics/re-purpose them and their employees into primary, front-line care? What care is elective vs essential at this point of time? Who gets prioritization? How do we partition the physical facility to minimize the risk of spread? What happens to the supply chain of meds?

There are plenty more by people far smarter than me in my profession.

[Johnny B]

Few morons on here putting national health after a basketball event. Canceling the whole thing is goofy but this thing may be serious and 100s of thousands of people flying around and forming close proximity mega crowds may just not be smart or worth it. Especially with spring break you worry these kids get crap and bring it back with em. Its the smart choice to take this seriously before it potentially gets outta hand. Im fine with no fans i guess although it sucks

[Billy Hoyle]

a recent tweet from Parrish:

BREAKING: The NCAA’s COVID-19 advisory panel is recommending against sporting events being open to the public. This suggests the NCAA Tournament will likely be played next week without fans.

[Mr. Nielsen]

[Mr. Nielsen]

https://twitter.com/InsidetheNCAA/status/1237838677591511040

[Billy Hoyle]

It's official - closed to all but families and essential staff: 

https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/1237839499503124483

[Litehouse]

Wow, I didn't think they'd actually do this.

[lawdog77]

It's official - closed to all but families and essential staff: 

https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/1237839499503124483

Is Wojo allowed to go?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Is Wojo allowed to go?

LOL - I laughed.

Honestly tho, this happened quickly. I kind of think its probably a coin flip it even happens. 

[lawdog77]

LOL - I laughed.

Honestly tho, this happened quickly. I kind of think its probably a coin flip it even happens.

I only get the easy laughs. IMO, there is no way they will cancel the tourney now, unless something drastic happens, like tens of thousands of reported cases.