2014-15 NFC North/NFL Thread

[g0lden3agle]

As Detroit and Green Bay move towards their season finale in Lambeau, let me toss this little stat out there.   Matthew Stafford has never won a road game against a team with a >.500 winning percentage.   Detroit needs to win the next two weeks against the Vikings and Bears or they will be sitting home this year.   They need them both because I don't think 10 wins will be enough. 

Looking at this NFC playoff picture it looks like there is a very real chance an 11 win team could be on the outside looking in.  Has that ever happened before?

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Looking at this NFC playoff picture it looks like there is a very real chance an 11 win team could be on the outside looking in.  Has that ever happened before?

Don't know bit for the 2nd time there will be a team under  .500

[NavinRJohnson]

At the moment, it is looking like a trip to Seattle may be the only thing that would keep GB out of the Super Bowl (though admittedly as bad as NO has been, playing in NO seems like something to avoid as well). Makes Packers game against Detroit a must win (unless of course they and Seattle both lose a game). Going to ATL, ARI, DET, etc., may actually be an advantage for GB to play in a controlled climate.

[MU82]

Tower, don't worry about the Bears game. The Bears are currently in a full-out, Raiders and Redskins-like, meltdown mode. Here's the latest gem: http://deadspin.com/bears-oc-gives-tearful-apology-for-criticizing-jay-cutl-1670246085

My question is: When does Jay Cutler apologize for playing like, well, Jay Cutler?

[wadesworld]

I understand that the Packers had been on a roll until today, but man has it been brutal.  In the 1st 3 Packers drives Eddie Lacy played in 2 of them (not sure why he didn't play in all 3 but what do I know?). Eddie Lacy ran 8 times for 72 yards and a touchdown in those 1st 2 drives. He's had 6 rushing attempts since then, in nearly 3 quarters of play, while we've been within a touchdown up until the last field goal the Bills got. Meanwhile, our passing game is 13-36 for 133 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs.  Where is Eddie?

[🏀]

They were trying to limit Eddie this week, Bills getting the better of them.

I stayed far away from from Packers this week in fantasy, except for Crosby. Front line is too good.

[real chili 83]

Packers hoping for a....Viking victory! 

That's like Lenny holding hands with Chicos

Like Ners cutting the lawn for the Dawsons

Like...I'll quit while I'm ahead.  Should be a good game.

[4everwarriors]

This game just bit GB in the ass. Best chance on the road to the SB was to go thru Green Bay. They're likely bf'ed now and will lose on the road in the playoffs, hey?

[wadesworld]

This game just bit GB in the ass. Best chance on the road to the SB was to go thru Green Bay. They're likely bf'ed now and will lose on the road in the playoffs, hey?

[Always a Warrior]

Vikings/Lions game means little to GB, GB controls their own destiny as far as the division. The game that really matters for home field advantage is Niners/Seahawks... go Niners!

[4everwarriors]

Forgettin' 'bout Arizona?

[tower912]

No one actually thinks the Lions win in Green Bay.   GB gets one home game.   Beyond that is a crapshoot.

[wadesworld]

Forgettin' 'bout Arizona?

No good

[MU82]

As a fan of the mighty (5-8-1) Panthers, I actually will be doing something I never do tomorrow night: rooting for Cutler and the Bears to win.

[GGGG]

I understand that the Packers had been on a roll until today, but man has it been brutal.  In the 1st 3 Packers drives Eddie Lacy played in 2 of them (not sure why he didn't play in all 3 but what do I know?). Eddie Lacy ran 8 times for 72 yards and a touchdown in those 1st 2 drives. He's had 6 rushing attempts since then, in nearly 3 quarters of play, while we've been within a touchdown up until the last field goal the Bills got. Meanwhile, our passing game is 13-36 for 133 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs.  Where is Eddie?

They used the run to set up the pass....and the quarterback had a bad day and receivers kept dropping the ball.  I knew this game was going to be a problem.  Good news is the Packers go 2-0 and they can do no worse than the #2 seed.  The bad news is that Seattle looks the likely #1 and they are on a roll right now.  Not only does that mean a potential road game in the NFCCG, but also Dallas coming to Green Bay in the divisional round instead of Atlanta or a WC team.

[hairy worthen]

They used the run to set up the pass....and the quarterback had a bad day and receivers kept dropping the ball.  I knew this game was going to be a problem.  Good news is the Packers go 2-0 and they can do no worse than the #2 seed.  The bad news is that Seattle looks the likely #1 and they are on a roll right now.  Not only does that mean a potential road game in the NFCCG, but also Dallas coming to Green Bay in the divisional round instead of Atlanta or a WC team.

I still think Seattle trips up in one of the next two games. We will see. Who gets the 1 seed if GB Seattle and Dallas all finish 12-4

[mu03eng]

They used the run to set up the pass....and the quarterback had a bad day and receivers kept dropping the ball.  I knew this game was going to be a problem.  Good news is the Packers go 2-0 and they can do no worse than the #2 seed.  The bad news is that Seattle looks the likely #1 and they are on a roll right now.  Not only does that mean a potential road game in the NFCCG, but also Dallas coming to Green Bay in the divisional round instead of Atlanta or a WC team.

Eh, Dallas doesn't scare me a ton.  They are good, but their weaknesses(pass rush) are Green Bay's weaknesses (throwing downfield against 7 man coverage).  Only playoff team that truly scares me is Seattle with Detroit being a concern as well(if we have to play on the road)

[Benny B]

I still think Seattle trips up in one of the next two games. We will see. Who gets the 1 seed if GB Seattle and Dallas all finish 12-4

According to the ESPN Playoff Machine assuming a 4 team tie at 12-4 (DAL, GB, SEA win out)

1st Seed - Seattle
NFC West Champ (Wins tie break over Arizona based on head-to-head win percentage.)
Wins tie break over Dallas and Green Bay based on best win percentage in conference games.
2nd Seed - Green Bay
NFC North Champ
Wins tie break over Dallas based on best win percentage in conference games.

Dallas gets third seed, AZ gets fifth seed.

Assuming DAL, GB, AZ win out.

AZ finishes with 1-seed at 13-3
2nd Seed - Green Bay
NFC North Champ
Wins tie break over Dallas based on best win percentage in conference games.
4th Seed - Atlanta
NFC South Champ (Wins tie break over New Orleans based on head-to-head win percentage.)
5th Seed - Seattle
Wins tie break over Detroit based on best win percentage in common games. Wins tie break over Philadelphia based on best win percentage in conference games.
6th Seed - Detroit
Wins tie break over Philadelphia based on best win percentage in conference games


Interesting note, the Packers are likely to lose a tie-breaker with AZ based on strength of victory.  If so, the Packers most probable hope for the #1 seed is for a Seattle win over the Cardinals in Week 16 and SF & STL wins over AZ & SEA, respectively, in Week 17.

[GGGG]

I still think Seattle trips up in one of the next two games. We will see. Who gets the 1 seed if GB Seattle and Dallas all finish 12-4

Here is my understanding.

1.  If all three clubs played one another, if one of the teams beat both of the others, they would be #1.  (That didn't happen.  GB didn't play Dallas.)
2.  Next is conference record.  If every team wins out, Seattle will be 10-2, GB 9-3, Dallas 8-4.

Therefore Seattle #1, GB #2, Dallas #3.

Interestingly, Dallas would be ahead of Seattle without Green Bay due to their head to head victory.  Seattle would be ahead of GB without Dallas for the same reason.  Green Bay would be ahead of Dallas without Seattle due to better conference record.

Now if the Lions win out along with Seattle and Dallas, they would have the same conference record as Seattle.  So it would go to the third tie-breaker - best record in common games.  I would have to look that up to see who would be better there.  

[jsglow]

According to the ESPN Playoff Machine assuming a 4 team tie at 12-4 (DAL, GB, SEA win out)

1st Seed - Seattle
NFC West Champ (Wins tie break over Arizona based on head-to-head win percentage.)
Wins tie break over Dallas and Green Bay based on best win percentage in conference games.
2nd Seed - Green Bay
NFC North Champ
Wins tie break over Dallas based on best win percentage in conference games.

Dallas gets third seed, AZ gets fifth seed.

Assuming DAL, GB, AZ win out.

AZ finishes with 1-seed at 13-3
2nd Seed - Green Bay
NFC North Champ
Wins tie break over Dallas based on best win percentage in conference games.
4th Seed - Atlanta
NFC South Champ (Wins tie break over New Orleans based on head-to-head win percentage.)
5th Seed - Seattle
Wins tie break over Detroit based on best win percentage in common games. Wins tie break over Philadelphia based on best win percentage in conference games.
6th Seed - Detroit
Wins tie break over Philadelphia based on best win percentage in conference games


Interesting note, the Packers are likely to lose a tie-breaker with AZ based on strength of victory.  If so, the Packers most probable hope for the #1 seed is for a Seattle win over the Cardinals in Week 16 and SF & STL wins over AZ & SEA, respectively, in Week 17.

Go Cardinals.

[drewm88]

Go Cardinals. I'd rather go there than Seattle, Philly, Detroit, or Dallas.

[wadesworld]

They used the run to set up the pass....and the quarterback had a bad day and receivers kept dropping the ball.  I knew this game was going to be a problem.  Good news is the Packers go 2-0 and they can do no worse than the #2 seed.  The bad news is that Seattle looks the likely #1 and they are on a roll right now.  Not only does that mean a potential road game in the NFCCG, but also Dallas coming to Green Bay in the divisional round instead of Atlanta or a WC team.

I get that but that's my problem with it.  Again, the Packers have played great outside of yesterday, and McCarthy has called numerous games in a row that I have been very impressed with.  He deserves a ton of credit for the way we have come out and blown teams out to start games with some great game plans out of the gate.  This is why I was so baffled that he had to have seen that the run game was working and the pass game simply was off, for one reason or another.  For a guy who has preached a balanced offense since the day he arrived, even when John Kuhn was forced into a feature back role, we had 6 more incompletions than rushing attempts yesterday in a game that was a 1 possession game for all but about 5 minutes.  42 passing attempts (with just 17 of them completions, and 2 picks to 0 TDs) to just 19 rushing attempts (that yielded 116 yards I believe).  The defense was defending the pass regardless of whether we were running the ball or throwing the ball.  Take what they're giving you.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I get that but that's my problem with it.  Again, the Packers have played great outside of yesterday, and McCarthy has called numerous games in a row that I have been very impressed with.  He deserves a ton of credit for the way we have come out and blown teams out to start games with some great game plans out of the gate.  This is why I was so baffled that he had to have seen that the run game was working and the pass game simply was off, for one reason or another.  For a guy who has preached a balanced offense since the day he arrived, even when John Kuhn was forced into a feature back role, we had 6 more incompletions than rushing attempts yesterday in a game that was a 1 possession game for all but about 5 minutes.  42 passing attempts (with just 17 of them completions, and 2 picks to 0 TDs) to just 19 rushing attempts (that yielded 116 yards I believe).  The defense was defending the pass regardless of whether we were running the ball or throwing the ball.  Take what they're giving you.

I don't disagree with you, but if/when they lose a game without giving Rogers every opportunity to win it, McCarthy will get ROASTED.

"We have an all-world QB, and Mike wants to run it 30 times? What's his problem?!"

So, the short answer is, when they lose, McCarthy will always be wrong.

[wadesworld]

I don't disagree with you, but if/when they lose a game without giving Rogers every opportunity to win it, McCarthy will get ROASTED.

"We have an all-world QB, and Mike wants to run it 30 times? What's his problem?!"

So, the short answer is, when they lose, McCarthy will always be wrong.

Fair point.

[Benny B]

Here is my understanding.

1.  If all three clubs played one another, if one of the teams beat both of the others, they would be #1.  (That didn't happen.  GB didn't play Dallas.)
2.  Next is conference record.  If every team wins out, Seattle will be 10-2, GB 9-3, Dallas 8-4.

Therefore Seattle #1, GB #2, Dallas #3.

Interestingly, Dallas would be ahead of Seattle without Green Bay due to their head to head victory.  Seattle would be ahead of GB without Dallas for the same reason.  Green Bay would be ahead of Dallas without Seattle due to better conference record.

Now if the Lions win out along with Seattle and Dallas, they would have the same conference record as Seattle.  So it would go to the third tie-breaker - best record in common games.  I would have to look that up to see who would be better there.  

This is my understanding as well.

There are two or three scenarios that involve GB gaining the #1 seed without having to win out, but it involves such elements as multiple ties, temperatures in hell dropping to 31degF, pigs and birds making love, etc.

In all likelihood, the Packers most realistic hope of getting the #1 seed involves:

1) GB winning out.
2) Seattle over Arizona Week 16.
3) St Louis over Seattle Week 17.