2023 NFL Draft/Offseason

[DegenerateDish]

Couple quick hitters that I like related to the draft:

Wright, first OL to be drafted +650 on FD

I grabbed this at +1200 on DK last week. Still some value here, and I think this will lose value by the end of this week.

Lions 1st pick, QB, +1000 on DK

I love this one, I’m surprised it’s still at this number. Lions probably won’t be in this position again anytime soon, Goff can come off the books at $5 M dead cap next offseason. Lions can move forward with a young QB on his rookie deal to avoid the future cap problems coming their way.

[MU82]

Lions 1st pick, QB, +1000 on DK

I love this one, I’m surprised it’s still at this number. Lions probably won’t be in this position again anytime soon, Goff can come off the books at $5 M dead cap next offseason. Lions can move forward with a young QB on his rookie deal to avoid the future cap problems coming their way.

Judging by what's being forecast now, the Lions would have to trade up to draft a QB. Many prognosticators say QBs will go 1, 2, 3, 4. Or if one of those passed, the last QB wouldn't get past Seattle at #5.

[DegenerateDish]

Judging by what's being forecast now, the Lions would have to trade up to draft a QB. Many prognosticators say QBs will go 1, 2, 3, 4. Or if one of those passed, the last QB wouldn't get past Seattle at #5.

Yes, and I believe they will.

[MU82]

Yes, and I believe they will.

Which explains why you placed the bet. Good luck!

FWIW, the general feeling here is that the Panthers are back on the Young bandwagon after supposedly leaning toward Stroud for a little while. Unless it's all a smokescreen to try to get Houston to trade up for #1.

[swoopem]

Couple quick hitters that I like related to the draft:

Wright, first OL to be drafted +650 on FD

I grabbed this at +1200 on DK last week. Still some value here, and I think this will lose value by the end of this week.

Lions 1st pick, QB, +1000 on DK

I love this one, I’m surprised it’s still at this number. Lions probably won’t be in this position again anytime soon, Goff can come off the books at $5 M dead cap next offseason. Lions can move forward with a young QB on his rookie deal to avoid the future cap problems coming their way.

As a resident of the Detroit area there is zero talk of the lions drafting a QB with their first pick. There’s whispers that they could draft one at 18, or whatever their second pick is, but even that is an unpopular idea. The hope is for Will Anderson to be there at 6 and then maybe one of the corners at 18

[tower912]

Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the second round.   

Detroit hosted Carter last week.

Holmes has shown a willingness to trade.    Detroit needs an interior defensive lineman and a corner.     Assuming no trades (not a safe assumption), the prevailing wisdom is that those two needs will be addressed in the first round.   

[JWags85]

Would love to be a fly on the wall in Lamar Jackson's camp with this Hurts deal being announced.

[Pakuni]

Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the second round.   

Detroit hosted Carter last week.

Holmes has shown a willingness to trade.    Detroit needs an interior defensive lineman and a corner.     Assuming no trades (not a safe assumption), the prevailing wisdom is that those two needs will be addressed in the first round.

Lions have done a lot of work on Purdue's Aidan O'Connell, fwiw. Not a first and perhaps not a second-day guy, but has some developmental potential.

[RJax55]

Lions have done a lot of work on Purdue's Aidan O'Connell, fwiw. Not a first and perhaps not a second-day guy, but has some developmental potential.

He will be 25 come the start of the NFL season. O'Connell looks like a back-up/QB room/locker room guy.

The fact they are doing a lot of work on him shows the Lions are pretty committed to Goff in the near term. I think that's a good move too. The NFC is weak. Put as much talent around Goff as possible.

[DegenerateDish]

I had meant to include Tyree Wilson as the first defensive player selected, but that number is plummeting by the hour, now down to +340, it was +900 over the weekend.

Will Anderson could have an interesting night next Thursday, I’m curious if he does fall where he goes.

I also like Zay Flowers to be the first WR taken at +400.

[WhiteTrash]

Would love to be a fly on the wall in Lamar Jackson's camp with this Hurts deal being announced.

Lamar's camp = Lamar's mom.

I'd guess this will help move him off his fully-guaranteed stance. But who knows.

[Pakuni]

I had meant to include Tyree Wilson as the first defensive player selected, but that number is plummeting by the hour, now down to +340, it was +900 over the weekend.

Will Anderson could have an interesting night next Thursday, I’m curious if he does fall where he goes.

I'd say there's almost no chance he gets past Seattle. Just the kind of pass rusher Pete Carroll loves (see: Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin, Frank Clark).
That aside, there's smoke that Houston likes him more than  Stroud.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I had meant to include Tyree Wilson as the first defensive player selected, but that number is plummeting by the hour, now down to +340, it was +900 over the weekend.

Will Anderson could have an interesting night next Thursday, I’m curious if he does fall where he goes.

I also like Zay Flowers to be the first WR taken at +400.

These are all nice lotto tickets but if you've bought them wide and they've tightened I'd sell

would be shocked if Wright goes above Paris Johnson Jr. with 36 inch arms and proven LT success plus time spent on the inside. I guess Bears might be looking for RT and that would be first off board? but i could see them trading back instead, Poles is savvy

Tyree Wilson is 1.3 years older than Anderson and didn't produce til late in college, whoever takes him over Anderson should be fired. I get that he's a freak but older guys that blow up late are red flags to me

Zay same thing, will be a 23 year old rookie with no catch radius, would be shocked if he went ahead of 21 year olds JSN & Addison. Youth at receiver is a premium like the NBA draft

[MU82]

The assumption among "experts" both nationally and in Charlotte is now that the Panthers will be drafting Young. I like that because I think he's the best QB in this draft -- and if you're gonna trade the farm, you might as well get the best.

In addition to Young's obvious talent, there was an interesting article today in The Athletic about Young getting a near-perfect score on the S2 Cognition test, which measures the split-second processing of information and decision-making.

https://theathletic.com/4430449/2023/04/20/panthers-nfl-draft-bryce-young-s2-test/?source=pulsenewsletter&campaign=6642013

From the article:

Young notched a near-perfect 98 (out of 99), while Kentucky’s Will Levis scored a 93, a person with direct knowledge confirmed to The Athletic. Those scores measure up well with several successful current or former NFL quarterbacks. Joe Burrow scored in the 97th percentile, while The Athletic’s Matt Barrows reported in an in-depth piece on S2 Cognition test in February that former Saints QB Drew Brees, along with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen all scored in the mid-90s.

The S2 researchers last year studied the scores of the 117 quarterbacks who had taken the test through the 2022 draft. The group included Brees before he retired (the Saints were the first NFL team to have their players tested) and the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins, who reached out to S2 and requested to take it. The average score for the quarterbacks was the 68th percentile, compared to the 50th percentile across all positions.

Researchers then narrowed the subset to 27 starting quarterbacks from the 2021 NFL season that S2 had scores on. The company found that the 13 starters with career passer ratings of 90 or above scored in the 91st percentile. The 14 QBs with passer ratings below 90 scored in the 51st percentile (with range from 8 to 90).

Pretty fascinating stuff IMHO.

[Uncle Rico]

The assumption among "experts" both nationally and in Charlotte is now that the Panthers will be drafting Young. I like that because I think he's the best QB in this draft -- and if you're gonna trade the farm, you might as well get the best.

In addition to Young's obvious talent, there was an interesting article today in The Athletic about Young getting a near-perfect score on the S2 Cognition test, which measures the split-second processing of information and decision-making.

https://theathletic.com/4430449/2023/04/20/panthers-nfl-draft-bryce-young-s2-test/?source=pulsenewsletter&campaign=6642013

From the article:

Young notched a near-perfect 98 (out of 99), while Kentucky’s Will Levis scored a 93, a person with direct knowledge confirmed to The Athletic. Those scores measure up well with several successful current or former NFL quarterbacks. Joe Burrow scored in the 97th percentile, while The Athletic’s Matt Barrows reported in an in-depth piece on S2 Cognition test in February that former Saints QB Drew Brees, along with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen all scored in the mid-90s.

The S2 researchers last year studied the scores of the 117 quarterbacks who had taken the test through the 2022 draft. The group included Brees before he retired (the Saints were the first NFL team to have their players tested) and the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins, who reached out to S2 and requested to take it. The average score for the quarterbacks was the 68th percentile, compared to the 50th percentile across all positions.

Researchers then narrowed the subset to 27 starting quarterbacks from the 2021 NFL season that S2 had scores on. The company found that the 13 starters with career passer ratings of 90 or above scored in the 91st percentile. The 14 QBs with passer ratings below 90 scored in the 51st percentile (with range from 8 to 90).

Pretty fascinating stuff IMHO.

What’s his darkness retreat ratio?

[Pakuni]

Tyree Wilson is 1.3 years older than Anderson and didn't produce til late in college, whoever takes him over Anderson should be fired. I get that he's a freak but older guys that blow up late are red flags to me

The other thing really working against Wilson is that he hasn't tested yet, and may not be able to before next week. For a guy whose selling point is traits over production, any team in the top 10 is taking a pretty large gamble picking him without knowing his workout numbers.
Some traits-focused front office may still take that risk, but it's a potential job-killer if they're wrong.

[DegenerateDish]

From FD:

Lions to pick Richardson at 6/Porter Jr. at 18. +4200

[Uncle Rico]

From FD:

Lions to pick Richardson at 6/Porter Jr. at 18. +4200

If they have a chance to pick Richardson at 6, that’s not a terrible pick IMO.  I’d rather trade out to a QB desperate team, though and add more picks

[Uncle Rico]

And now 4 Lions are suspended a year over gambling including Jameson Williams

Edit: Williams and Stanley Berryhill for 6 games.  Quintez Cepheus, Badgers legend, gets a year

[Pakuni]

And now 4 Lions are suspended a year over gambling including Jameson Williams

Edit: Williams and Stanley Berryhill for 6 games.  Quintez Cepheus, Badgers legend, gets a year

According to Williams' agent, he was suspended because he made an otherwise allowable online bet while on team property.

[Uncle Rico]

According to Williams' agent, he was suspended because he made an otherwise allowable online bet while on team property.

Good.  Last thing the NFL wants to be associated with is gambling, sex or alcohol

[Pakuni]

If what's being reported about CJ Stroud's s2 results is accurate ...  oof..

[tower912]

Detroit's draft plans just got shuffled.

Old school... Alex Karras was suspended along with Paul Hornung 60 years ago.   

[DegenerateDish]

The Will Levis movement has been crazy (I say this as someone who has been sitting on Levis to go #1 overall futures at 25:1 from last September).

He was +5000 to go #1 overall last night. He’s now at +400.

[MU82]

The Will Levis movement has been crazy (I say this as someone who has been sitting on Levis to go #1 overall futures at 25:1 from last September).

He was +5000 to go #1 overall last night. He’s now at +400.

I wouldn't make that bet.