UNC v Nova

[tower912]

1.  Go cats.  Go big east!
2.  These two teams have both looked dominant all tournament.
3.  Thanks, V, for removing Marquette from the books as the worst final four loss ever.
4.  If Nova doesn't shoot lights out again they lose.
5.  UNC is just sooooo long.  I don't think V can keep them off of the offensive boards any better than anybody else has.
6.  My heart says Nova.
7.  My brain says Tar Heels.  Hopefully they have to vacate it.

[Tugg Speedman]

Nova beat Kansas.  They are a tougher team

[Dr. Blackheart]

Pomeroy has Nova 77-76 at a 56% probability. Big match up question is if UNC will dominate inside. If Oklahoma did one thing it was win the offensive boards.  Two great offensive teams, Nova a bit better defensively.  But, UNC scores 62% of its points from inside the arc, while Nova only scores 47% inside.  The Battle of Guard's vs. Big Man's Game Debate.

I picked UNC in my brackets as they are more versatile and started to pick up their defensive game late in the season.  However, Nova is on its game big time. Heart says BE, brain says UNC, but it is a well-matched game.

BTW, Nova reloads for next year the way Wright has balanced his classes, and with his 2016 class coming in.

[StateStreetMission]

3.  Thanks, V, for removing Marquette from the books as the worst final four loss ever


The MU loss to Kansas was the fourth worst final four margin of defeat before yesterday
However, It was the worst most recent blowout 
That was a painful experience so I feel for the OU faithful

Go Big East.
Go Nova.

[ChicosBailBonds]

1.  Go cats.  Go big east!
2.  These two teams have both looked dominant all tournament.
3.  Thanks, V, for removing Marquette from the books as the worst final four loss ever.
4.  If Nova doesn't shoot lights out again they lose.
5.  UNC is just sooooo long.  I don't think V can keep them off of the offensive boards any better than anybody else has.
6.  My heart says Nova.
7.  My brain says Tar Heels.  Hopefully they have to vacate it.

We were never the worst Final Four ever

[wadesworld]

We were never the worst Final Four ever

Worst first half deficit in Final Four history. Remains that way, and probably always will. Down TWENTY NINE at halftime with a once in a generation talent to go along with 2 other NBA players and 2 more really quality bigs. Had a week to prepare for them and it was as if we'd never found a single film tape of them. They'd beat us in transition down the floor for layups...off of our MADE buckets. Was in attendance and was in 8th grade at the time and I could've had MU more prepared to play Kansas after having only seen them play like once that year (again, I was 14 at the time) than Tom Crean had them that night. Shame.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Worst first half deficit in Final Four history. Remains that way, and probably always will. Down TWENTY NINE at halftime with a once in a generation talent to go along with 2 other NBA players and 2 more really quality bigs. Had a week to prepare for them and it was as if we'd never found a single film tape of them. They'd beat us in transition down the floor for layups...off of our MADE buckets. Was in attendance and was in 8th grade at the time and I could've had MU more prepared to play Kansas after having only seen them play like once that year (again, I was 14 at the time) than Tom Crean had them that night. Shame.

Luckily nobody except marquette fans care about the half time score. Hell I didn't even know that and I went to MU.

[CountryRoads]

Worst first half deficit in Final Four history. Remains that way, and probably always will. Down TWENTY NINE at halftime with a once in a generation talent to go along with 2 other NBA players and 2 more really quality bigs. Had a week to prepare for them and it was as if we'd never found a single film tape of them. They'd beat us in transition down the floor for layups...off of our MADE buckets. Was in attendance and was in 8th grade at the time and I could've had MU more prepared to play Kansas after having only seen them play like once that year (again, I was 14 at the time) than Tom Crean had them that night. Shame.

Crean was acting like a maniac on the sidelines yelling at his guys to keep pushing the tempo as our guys were obviously getting run off the floor. What a moron. (but hey at least he got us there)

[wadesworld]

Luckily nobody except marquette fans care about the half time score. Hell I didn't even know that and I went to MU.

The score at halftime is pretty dang important. You ain't making up 29 points in the 2nd half of a national semifinal game.

[keefe]

We were never the worst Final Four ever

We were because it was Marquette Nation who was humiliated.

The most shameful night in the long storied tradition of our Marquette Warrior basketball program.

[Let's Go Warriors]

I like Nova because their game plan should be simple.

Pack it in
Play behind the post
double the post from multiple positions at different times
If UNC beats you from the outside tip your cap to them

[wadesworld]

I like Nova because their game plan should be simple.

Pack it in
Play behind the post
double the post from multiple positions at different times
If UNC beats you from the outside tip your cap to them

Easier said than done.

Plus if you play behind the post Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks are going to eat you up on the blocks, Brice Johnson is going to hit 12 footer after 12 footer, etc.

I look at it as almost the opposite.  Pressure their guards and make entry passes more difficult, deny the post entry passes.  Keep the ball in the guards' hands and make them make somewhat contested perimeter jumpers.

Most importantly, control the basketball.  Live ball turnovers will absolutely kill you.  Get back on defense and get your defense set.  Make them beat you in the half court.

[Let's Go Warriors]

Easier said than done.

Plus if you play behind the post Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks are going to eat you up on the blocks, Brice Johnson is going to hit 12 footer after 12 footer, etc.

I look at it as almost the opposite.  Pressure their guards and make entry passes more difficult, deny the post entry passes.  Keep the ball in the guards' hands and make them make somewhat contested perimeter jumpers.

Most importantly, control the basketball.  Live ball turnovers will absolutely kill you.  Get back on defense and get your defense set.  Make them beat you in the half court.

thats why the next line is double the post.  pretty easy to do
you can pressure the guards and double the post. the double doesnt have to come from the passers defender.  In fact id bet it wont, it will come from the drop side guard most often.

You have to play behind or you will give up way to many o-boards.  That is almost the biggest weapon on offense for carolina.  The offensive rebound...

[KampusFoods]

I think this will be a really really good game. Two teams that basically cruised through their first five tourney games, with the exception of Nova vs. KU. I also thought Nova vs. Oklahoma would be a really good game.

UNC's bigs will be a handful for Ochefu and co. down low. Nova's guards are a handful for anyone.

Marcus Paige will be the key for UNC. If he's playing well and hitting threes, I think they win. If he has an off night, I like Nova.

[Herman Cain]

I think this will be a really really good game. Two teams that basically cruised through their first five tourney games, with the exception of Nova vs. KU. I also thought Nova vs. Oklahoma would be a really good game.

UNC's bigs will be a handful for Ochefu and co. down low. Nova's guards are a handful for anyone.

Marcus Paige will be the key for UNC. If he's playing well and hitting threes, I think they win. If he has an off night, I like Nova.

I completely agree with your analysis and Conclusion. Hopefully Paige lays an egg which he is capable of doing.

Go Big East.

[Stretchdeltsig]

It's a "blue blood" vs a "gold blood."  Go Big East!

[wadesworld]

thats why the next line is double the post.  pretty easy to do
you can pressure the guards and double the post. the double doesnt have to come from the passers defender.  In fact id bet it wont, it will come from the drop side guard most often.

You have to play behind or you will give up way to many o-boards.  That is almost the biggest weapon on offense for carolina.  The offensive rebound...

Sure it's easy to try to double hard in the post when the catch is made, but if you watched the Cuse vs. UNC game, UNC is a fantastic post passing team.  Their forwards cut really well off of post ups, and their bigs find those cutters just as well.  I think if you just let them enter the ball into the post and rely on doubling, you're just asking to get blown out.

[GooooMarquette]

Nova's got this.

[UticaBusBarn]

To state the obvious, the championship game tonight will be a great game and theatre.

However, somewhat in the abstract, maybe the more interesting issue will be (an almost) laboratory test of (NC's double post) "bigs" versus (Villanova's four) "guards."

This board seems to have a majority who are totally focused on "bigs" and believe bigs to be the end all and be all to success. But, there is a strong minority that believe, as I do, that if you don't have guards, "you don't have sh*t."

The sub-plot to the clinical "bigs vs. guards" test is just as interesting. To quote Bear Bryant (a phrase also used by Beauregard), "fast beats big, if fast really is fast."

In summary, guards beat bigs, speed beats big, and therefore, Villanova wins!

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I still don't really have an opinion on the whole guards vs bigs debate. You have the whole Kemba Walker example but then you have Sean May abusing the 2005 Illini with one of the best 3 guard back courts college has ever seen. I don't think you can point to one and br like, that the answer.

[keefe]

Nova gets it done

[Let's Go Warriors]

Sure it's easy to try to double hard in the post when the catch is made, but if you watched the Cuse vs. UNC game, UNC is a fantastic post passing team.  Their forwards cut really well off of post ups, and their bigs find those cutters just as well.  I think if you just let them enter the ball into the post and rely on doubling, you're just asking to get blown out.

lol
Cuse extended their zone way past the 3 point line.  Leaving the lanes for those passes.  Not even similar.

I didnt say let the pass either.  If your sagging in, by definition there is less room for the pass to begin with.  If Nova comes out tight on anyone not named Paige they are foolish.

sometimes you double on the pass
sometimes you double on the first dribble
sometimes Nova will be in the matchup
sometimes they will be in man

think of the difficulties MU had getting the ball inside last year because every sagged off of our PG...
my guess is nova will mix both in

but continually pressing out and allowing drives and dishes and Nova will be toast and playing into the pace and UNCs hands.

Carolina as a team shoots about 30% from 3.  Let them beat you from 3...

[VegasWarrior77]

My heart says 'Nova but my head says UNC.  The sports books are taking tons of money on UNC.  Described as an "avalanche" by one sports book director.

Here's a nice article on Villanova & the BEast by local writer Ed Graney that appeared in this morning's LV Review-Journal:

Big East, ’Nova know, savor their place

By ED GRANEY
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
HOUSTON

It is a private university located in Radnor Township and named for Saint Thomas of Villanova. The oldest Catholic school in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, just under 6,400 undergraduate students exist among 250 or so acres.

But as much as Villanova is the small institution northwest of Philadelphia with a basketball program known for one magical evening in 1985, for a team that history insists is one of the most unlikely of champions, what will occur tonight at NRG Stadium has nothing to do with fairy tales.

Cinderella isn’t invited to this particular ball.

Instead, tonight’s matchup is proof that while football remains the great and powerful Oz ruling college athletics, king of an arms race that has created what is a grotesque level of financial disparity between the haves and have-nots, it’s still possible for a nonfootball conference to compete on a national level in the second most popular sport.

Especially when we are talking about the Big East.

Villanova meets mighty North Carolina in a national championship game of the NCAA Tournament, where millions will watch on television and more than 75,000 will be in attendance and the idea that a once-proud and tradition-rich league can reinvent itself in this time of realignment chaos to stand 40 minutes from such a coveted title should be celebrated.

“I’m a huge college football fan,” Villanova coach Jay Wright said. “I love it. I met the athletic director from LSU and said, ‘I can’t wait to come down for a game.’ I love it.

“But there’s a lot of great basketball schools. That’s just what we are in the (Big East). We’re basketball schools. We make all our decisions athletically about basketball. We got together and saw where we fit in this world of football. We don’t have a goal to be the greatest league in the world. We’re authentic. We’re basketball schools. It’s the biggest sport.”

You can sometimes survive on tradition.

Some can even prosper.

The Big East was formed in 1979 and six years later, it already had national basketball champions in Georgetown and that improbable Villanova squad coached by Rollie Massimino. Three of the teams in the 1985 Final Four were from the league. Over the years, save perhaps a few in the early 1990s, basketball excellence remained part of the conference’s annual brand.

They wanted it that way, so it was.

But when realignment hit hard a few years ago and schools bolted the league for what they viewed as better opportunities at football riches, when the likes of Louisville and Syracuse and Pittsburgh and Miami and West Virginia and Cincinnati and Rutgers and others had all ultimately taken their helmets and shoulder pads and hit the road, seven others decided to pursue a league with a new framework, one defined at the top by basketball.

Now, the Big East has 10 teams and this year advanced half to the NCAA Tournament, including No. 2 seeds in Villanova and Xavier.

The Wildcats are major in every way that North Carolina and Duke and Kansas and Kentucky are, from their practice facility to their training table to their chartered plane trips to Wright’s $2.7 million salary. Villanova is a big-time college program from a big-time basketball conference, the small, private, Catholic school that long ago made the decision no matter what cost to its bottom line, it would do anything necessary to compete at the sport’s highest level.

“Back when I was coaching there under (Massimino), if you saw our offices and our home court at that time, you’d be like, ‘Come on, you can’t win,” said Steve Lappas, who returned to Villanova as its head coach from 1992-2001. “But now, Villanova and Jay and his assistants are in the same categories as everyone else. In terms of wherewithal, they have everything they need to do what they need to do.”

Here’s the most important part: Kids still want to play in the Big East, and if it’s because of television or history or great coaching or a desire to shoot jumpers in Madison Square Garden or whatever, the fact great players continue to sign with the conference is enough for a nonfootball league to remain relevant at the most important time of a college basketball season.

Villanova plays mighty North Carolina tonight and should the Wildcats win, it would be their second national title. The other one is the famous one, when Cinderella felled Big East giant Georgetown and history had itself an unlikely champion.

But this isn’t a fairy tale any more.

“I feel a lot of pride, I really do,” Wright said. “We reinvented ourselves in a time when college athletics is being run by football. The (Final Four) is bigger than the four-team college football playoff to our schools. It’s just what we are. We’re just trying to be the best we can be.

“I’m really happy for our league, happy that our league is in the final, as happy as I am for Villanova.”

Survive and advance?

Try survive and prosper.

[Cooby Snacks]

A little numerical preview based on tournament games only.

Nova's Offense vs. UNC Defense
eFG%: 67.4% to 50.2%
Turnover%: 16.1% to 16.2%
Offensive rebound%: 28.6% to 33.7%
Free throw rate: 32.6% to 34.4%
Points per possession: 1.32 to 1.07

UNC offense vs. Nova defense
eFG%: 56.6% to 48.2%
TO%: 14.7% to 22.4%
OR%: 46.9% to 31.6%
FTR: 34.7% to 22.3%
PPP: 1.32 to 0.94

Of note, Nova's opponents have been generally tougher than Carolina's to this point, particularly defensively, and they've still shredded everyone except KU. Carolina faced two teams with high powered offenses but meh/bad defenses in IU and Notre Dame and gave up 1.2 and 1.3 ppp, respectively.

Important questions:
Can Nova keep shooting at such an insane clip, or is there some regression to the mean in their immediate future?
Can they turn Carolina over?
Can they keep UNC off the offensive glass?
Does a super dominant Villanova win bump MU up a spot in the Pomeroy ratings? (We've already climbed from 100 to 95 since our season ended...I'll take improvement in any form it manifests).

[Archies Bat]

Does a super dominant Villanova win bump MU up a spot in the Pomeroy ratings? (We've already climbed from 100 to 95 since our season ended...I'll take improvement in any form it manifests).

Is that high enough to get us in the NIT retroactively?