LeBron to... odds

[HoopsMalone]

Don't get me wrong, Varejao is a nice player.  He can be part of a title winning front line.  But Noah is an upgrade.  You don't go to Chicago just because of Noah, but Noah is better than anything Cleveland has.  And Noah has an upside and is a proven winner which means something.

[GoldenWarrior]

Noah Playoffs:  14.8 pts 13 Rebs
Varejao Playoffs:  5.7 pts 6.5 rebs
*note this is partly head to head

Noah plays about 10 mins more granted.

Noah Regular Season:  10.7 pts 11.0 rebs
Varejao Regular Season:  8.6 pts 7.6 rebs

Varejao- 28 years old, 5 more years of consistency, but probably hit his ceiling
Noah- 25 years old, has not hit his ceiling.  Plenty of productive years ahead.

Varejao might get more minutes without Shaq, but he has had time to show what he has.  Noah is better statistically and is much, much more likely to improve based on his age and the signs he has showed in the playoffs. 

Maybe it depends how you define "a lot better" when comparing Noah and Varejao, but there is a lot more to be excited about with Noah on the court.  Plus he will get in Lebron's face if Lebron starts dancing when his team wins regular season games.  Lebron might need a teammate like that.  Bill Cartwright did that for MJ early on. 

I do think it comes down to how you're defining "a lot better" because though stats do help, they never tell the whole story of anything and especially in this discussion where both guys are so much more valuable than either of their stats say.

Yes, Noah is younger therefore should have a higher ceiling at this point and onward, but I also think a lot of people are simply looking at his 5 games in the playoffs and how well he performed and saying that this kid is all of a sudden destined to be a top 5 big man... I'm not buying it from one series I guess.  I wanna see it over a longer period of time and if he does live up to it, then that's awesome and he deserves it.  By the sounds of it he works his a$$ off all the time in practice and off season, but so does AV.

Sticking with stats though, their career numbers are one point and one rebound off of one another and a scary similarity in mpg...

Noah:  8ppg, 8rpg, 24.8mpg
Varejou:  7ppg, 7rpg, 24.1mpg

This is why I don't think that the difference is really all that great between the two, or that one is "a lot better" than the other...

[HoopsMalone]

Varejao first 3 seasons:  5.4 points 5.46 rebs

Noah has shown up big in two playoff series in his first three years as well.  People are looking at the Boston series and the Cleveland series with Noah.  Noah also has never had big Lebron next to him that other teams have had to box out.  Varejao is ok, but Noah has a lot more upside.  No is not a top 5 big man because he will never score 20 ppg.  He could lead the league in rebounding, however, and could bring a Dennis Rodman presence.  Maybe he won't, but Chicago is a better team that has someone like that.  He is definately better than Varejao by stats, potential, history of winning (2 NCAA titles), and a high percentage of big games in the playoffs compared to how many he has played.

[GoldenWarrior]

Varejao first 3 seasons:  5.4 points 5.46 rebs

Noah has shown up big in two playoff series in his first three years as well.  People are looking at the Boston series and the Cleveland series with Noah.  Noah also has never had big Lebron next to him that other teams have had to box out.  Varejao is ok, but Noah has a lot more upside.  No is not a top 5 big man because he will never score 20 ppg.  He could lead the league in rebounding, however, and could bring a Dennis Rodman presence.  Maybe he won't, but Chicago is a better team that has someone like that.  He is definately better than Varejao by stats, potential, history of winning (2 NCAA titles), and a high percentage of big games in the playoffs compared to how many he has played.

yeah, I see what you're saying and tend to agree that yes, Noah is better than Varejou, I just don't think it's that big of an improvement or difference between the two.  Noah had a big body next to him in Miller in terms of rebounding and as far as I'm concerned nobody is gonna lead the league in rebounding aside from D Howard for the next 5 seasons easy, lol.  That guys is just a beast on the boards, but yes Noah has some nice assets and is better than Anderson.

Another question for you though:  Would u trade Noah in a sign and trade for Bosh??

[HoopsMalone]

Another question for you though:  Would u trade Noah in a sign and trade for Bosh??

Not a chance.  I'd take Noah at 1/5 of Bosh's salary and maybe 60% of Bosh's production.  I'm not huge on Bosh for a max deal.  We don't need a guy who finger rolls the ball in and spends half of his day on twitter.  I'm not big on signing a max deal guy who might get destroyed by Pau Gasol.  Bosh is just ok on defense.  I could be wrong on Bosh.  We will see.

I would trade for Bosh at $12ish million, but not a max deal.  No way.  I'd rather try to get Boozer for less than pay Bosh all that money.

You might be right about Howard.  He was around 13 boards/game whereas Noah was at 11 boards/game.  Both have room to improve, but are both going to be top 5 probably. 

This summer, though, some teams might look back and say the best move was no move.  A lot of these guys are not worth it in my opinion. 

[GoldenWarrior]

Not a chance.  I'd take Noah at 1/5 of Bosh's salary and maybe 60% of Bosh's production.  I'm not huge on Bosh for a max deal.  We don't need a guy who finger rolls the ball in and spends half of his day on twitter.  I'm not big on signing a max deal guy who might get destroyed by Pau Gasol.  Bosh is just ok on defense.  I could be wrong on Bosh.  We will see.

I would trade for Bosh at $12ish million, but not a max deal.  No way.  I'd rather try to get Boozer for less than pay Bosh all that money.

You might be right about Howard.  He was around 13 boards/game whereas Noah was at 11 boards/game.  Both have room to improve, but are both going to be top 5 probably. 

This summer, though, some teams might look back and say the best move was no move.  A lot of these guys are not worth it in my opinion. 

If I'm the Bulls I would certainly trade Noah for Bosh.  Yes, financially Bosh is more expensive, but given the landscape of the NBA you want to get a guy like Bosh (great offensive game, solid defender (no, not as good as Noah) and good locker room guy as well).  Noah's price is going to end up costing the Bulls, it's just a matter of time, so which would you rather... push now and truly provide someone for D Rose to have alongside with a strong all around game or provide a good defender and rebounder for him to play with?  I'll take the all around game any day in that circumstance and as you can tell I'm not quite as high on Noah yet as apparently most Chicago fan is.

I agree though, Boozer could be viewed as a better get for the price, though he's going to cost a pretty penny as well (wouldn't be surprised if it's a max for him in the end), even more than he deserves... especially if Gay & Johnson are getting max already!!  I would also question the size between a front line of Noah & Boozer... both undersized, but play bigger than they are.  I think they both need a true big behind them though to be successful.

Yes, guys are going to be grossly over paid and teams are going to shoot themselves down the road for this off season... see my post in the "We start the max deals with..." thread

[HoopsMalone]

Bosh is definitely something to consider and I see your point.  Noah might end up being a 10-14 million dollar player, so why not just get Bosh now.  Especially since Bosh is so young.  I personally would rather keep Noah until his contract is up and then pay him less than you would be on the hook for with Bosh. 

Even if the Bulls do not get a big name this summer, $30 million is a ton of money.  They can put a lot pieces around Rose and wait until the right move comes. 

If they could sign Bosh straight up, then I would say just make an irrational move and sign the guy for a little more than he is worth.  Then you have Bosh and Noah starting with Taj Gibson off the bench.  You then have about $13 million left to sign Brad Miller back, get a back up PG and two shooters to split time at the 2. 

Bosh and Rose could be nasty in a pick and roll.  But I would not want to give up Noah for Bosh at a max.  Noah would make up for Bosh's at times soft play and Bosh would make up for Noah's lack of skill offensively.

[HoopsMalone]

GoldenWarrior,  without knowing if James would come back, would you trade Hickson, Varejao, Mo Williams, Delante West, and some picks for CP3 and Emeka Okafur (and Emeka's big contract)? 

I think it is probably an all right thing for 3 reasons:
1- It increases your chances of getting James to come back exponentially since James and him are buds and Byron Scott already coached Paul.

2- I don't think Mo Williams and Varejao are that good anyway.  It would only be really tough to lose Hickson's potential.

3- At some point, the Cavs are going to have to slow down Rondo, Wade, Rose, and Jameer Nelson to get out of the east.  Probably 2 every year.  Paul gives you that guy.

This would tie up the Cavs with James and Paul's big contracts and a big one with Okafur.  But you really have to do something to keep James, so it might be worth it.

[GoldenWarrior]

GoldenWarrior,  without knowing if James would come back, would you trade Hickson, Varejao, Mo Williams, Delante West, and some picks for CP3 and Emeka Okafur (and Emeka's big contract)? 

I think it is probably an all right thing for 3 reasons:
1- It increases your chances of getting James to come back exponentially since James and him are buds and Byron Scott already coached Paul.

2- I don't think Mo Williams and Varejao are that good anyway.  It would only be really tough to lose Hickson's potential.

3- At some point, the Cavs are going to have to slow down Rondo, Wade, Rose, and Jameer Nelson to get out of the east.  Probably 2 every year.  Paul gives you that guy.

This would tie up the Cavs with James and Paul's big contracts and a big one with Okafur.  But you really have to do something to keep James, so it might be worth it.

Ok, so hypothetically speaking (because the contracts still don't matchup correctly to actually do)... I would certainly be tempted.  As you said, Cleveland will have to do something eventually, even if LBJ resigns or doesn't, we've gotta do something at PG in particular... CP3 clearly fills that by being one of the top4 PGs prolly in the league right now even after injury.  I would be tempted to actually see if NO would be willing to part with Collison at PG and we'll take Emeka's terrible contract too... I think Collison has the skills necessary to continue to progress in this league for years to come.  But by doing this, I would want to keep Varejou (LBJ loves him and as u know I like (not love) him) and I'd try to hold onto Delonte's desirable contract for another trade or to keep him actually (i like his game despite the off the court issues).  My trade would be:

Cavs get:  Emeka and Collison
Hornets get:  JJ Hickson, Mo Williams

A final answer on your proposed trade though:  Yes, I'd do that trade.  We've got to do soemthign to get another bonified star to CLE alongside LBJ and this certainly fits the bill.  I hate to lose some of the "glue" in Anderson or potential in JJ, but to get something you've got to give something...

[HoopsMalone]

Cavs get:  Emeka and Collison
Hornets get:  JJ Hickson, Mo Williams

Interesting.  Hornets are desperate to get rid of Emeka and might just do that. 

[GoldenWarrior]

Interesting.  Hornets are desperate to get rid of Emeka and might just do that. 

That's kinda what I was banking on, but would that be enough to keep LeBron in Cleveland?  CP3 gaurantees LBJ stays, Collison... still a young question mark...

I would also be interested in taking a look at James Harden in OKC. My guess is he hasn't crossed anyone's mind lately, but I really like his game and see it developing well into the NBA (started slow last season, but showed nice improvements towards the end).  Maybe Cavs could offer a few veterans to help lead that team along with all of their young talent and the Cavs get another young big to grow alongside LBJ... and allows Hickson to be expendable in trades.

Cavs get:  James Harden and a bad Nick Collison contract (though Cavs would want a new contract for Harden in place prior to trade - Collison's contract is expiring actually too, so idk if OKC would wanna give that up necessarily)
OKC gets:  Delonte West (desired contract, expiring and non-gauranteed) and JJ Hickson

What r some more of your thoughts?  I love this in the NBA, could be historic, but for all intense of purposes... hope LeBron just stays home and it's relatively quiet 

[HoopsMalone]

What r some more of your thoughts?  I love this in the NBA, could be historic, but for all intense of purposes... hope LeBron just stays home and it's relatively quiet 

I think your suggestions are James' best ways to win in Cleveland.  That is, get young players and build a team up with him.  The only problem is that he needs to commit to 6 seasons and then he is looking at winning is first in 2 or 3 years rather than next year. Picking up Shaq and Jamison is not the answer in my opinion.  The Cavs have a decent core there, but could use Hickson developing and a better young guard.  They can contend in 2 years.

Does James try to win in Chicago next year or wait a few years?  I think he could be talked into staying and if I was betting now I would guess he would stay.  Chicago needs to do one more thing (get Boozer to commit) before the meeting tomorrow.

If I was the Bulls, I would try to pry Mello out of Denver.  Deng could replace him at half price and half production plus a bunch of picks.  Probably would be hard to pull off without losing Noah and Gibson with Deng though.

[shiloh26]

If I was the Bulls, I would try to pry Mello out of Denver.  Deng could replace him at half price and half production plus a bunch of picks.  Probably would be hard to pull off without losing Noah and Gibson with Deng though.

Yeah, I don't see that happening.  Why clear all that cap space to make a trade that will cost a lot of talent?  They've set their course to sign a big free agent or two, and it's what they'll live or die by. 

[HoopsMalone]

Yeah, I don't see that happening.  Why clear all that cap space to make a trade that will cost a lot of talent?  They've set their course to sign a big free agent or two, and it's what they'll live or die by. 

I agree.  Just thinking out loud.  Though if the Nuggets want to get rid of Carmello, I think the Bulls should get into that race.

The Bulls are in a uniquely good situation.  Even if they strike out on the big guys who are left, they are still in decent shape.  They already struck lightning when they got Rose.  They don't need to strike lightning twice to be a contender.  With the roster they have now, they can use $30 million to add six players who average $5 million each to go with Gibson, Noah, Rose, Deng, and  22 year old first round pick James Johnson.   

I think the Bulls need one more big time player, but 6 above above average role players would give the Bulls a nice rotation.  Then, it depends on how good Rose really is.

Adding David Lee for $12 million and then 4 other solid players would be a good offseason in any year but this one.  Im keeping that in perspective...

[GoldenWarrior]

I think anyone who can should get into discussion to at least check out about the Melo situation in Denver... you are foolish not to at least pick up the phone and see what it would take.

HoopsMalone:  I agree, I think if LeBron would sign a six year deal and allow the Cavs two seasons to actually build a team fit to win in a few years instead of the proverbial "win it this year" mentality, we could be great for a long time (provided they actually know how to build a champion that is, lol).

I do agree though, Chicago is the only team it seems that can completely strike out on the big dogs of this free agency and still contend (not for a title... at least for now) in the playoffs.  A Boozer or David Lee at a reasonable contract would be nice pick ups for them too, but I have a feeling that they are going to be getting big offers from others who strike out, at which case CHI may step up and offer too much for them.

[HoopsMalone]

I do agree though, Chicago is the only team it seems that can completely strike out on the big dogs of this free agency and still contend (not for a title... at least for now) in the playoffs.  A Boozer or David Lee at a reasonable contract would be nice pick ups for them too, but I have a feeling that they are going to be getting big offers from others who strike out, at which case CHI may step up and offer too much for them.

I agree and that worries me about Lee and Boozer.  Neither is an imposing defender but creates pick and roll opportunities with Rose which could be lethal.  Maybe the Bulls can go up to $14 million, otherwise they should develop the pieces they have and add depth. 

I also am not opposed to that Gortat and Pietrus to Chicago and Deng to Orlando trade.  Deng is a tough contract to have, but the Magic really missed Hedo this year.  Gortat is a nice defensive center and Pietrus can shoot.  Also, it is much easier to trade Pietrus' 2 years at around $5 million as opposed to Deng's 4 years $50ish million he has left.  If the Bulls have to, they start Pietrus at the 3 and develop the guy they picked last year at SF.  Then they also have a nice inside defensive lineup with 26 year old Gortat, 25 year old Noah, and 25 year old Gibson.  All three have reasonable contracts and I think that Gortat could be effective if he wasn't behind Howard all the time.  Gortat only gets 12 mins/game and does a nice job.  Plus, splitting Deng's $10 million among 2 players is better than they have I think.  The only thing it does is stack a conference rival, but the Bulls need to move that contract in my opinion.

[GoldenWarrior]

I agree and that worries me about Lee and Boozer.  Neither is an imposing defender but creates pick and roll opportunities with Rose which could be lethal.  Maybe the Bulls can go up to $14 million, otherwise they should develop the pieces they have and add depth. 

I also am not opposed to that Gortat and Pietrus to Chicago and Deng to Orlando trade.  Deng is a tough contract to have, but the Magic really missed Hedo this year.  Gortat is a nice defensive center and Pietrus can shoot.  Also, it is much easier to trade Pietrus' 2 years at around $5 million as opposed to Deng's 4 years $50ish million he has left.  If the Bulls have to, they start Pietrus at the 3 and develop the guy they picked last year at SF.  Then they also have a nice inside defensive lineup with 26 year old Gortat, 25 year old Noah, and 25 year old Gibson.  All three have reasonable contracts and I think that Gortat could be effective if he wasn't behind Howard all the time.  Gortat only gets 12 mins/game and does a nice job.  Plus, splitting Deng's $10 million among 2 players is better than they have I think.  The only thing it does is stack a conference rival, but the Bulls need to move that contract in my opinion.

I'd be REALLY surprised if the Magic did this trade.  Deng is nice, but not that good of a player, especially for his contract.  Gortat and Pietrus have been instrumental in the success of ORL and I don't think they'd part with both of them for Deng.  Would be a GREAT trade for CHI though if it went through!

Boozer and Lee would work nicely in the pick n roll with Rose, but as I said, I think it all comes down to the price you have to pay in order to get either of them, which I tend to think will be too much.

I'm seeing reports that Cavs are trying to figure out a sign and trade for either Bosh or Amar'e... it'd be GREAT to get Bosh, not so high on Amar'e though... should be an interesting weekend though to say the least!!

[RawdogDX]

Would the bulls be title contenders with Boozer and Korver? 
They would be good...

I'm starting to get real worried.  At least we'd save enough to make keep the band together when noah and james are up.

[HoopsMalone]

Would the bulls be title contenders with Boozer and Korver? 
They would be good...

I'm starting to get real worried.  At least we'd save enough to make keep the band together when noah and james are up.

I am worried too for the Bulls.  Boozer and Korver make Bulls 2nd or 3rd round next year.  Rose and Noah will improve, Korver replaces most of Hinrich and Boozer at pick and roll potential.  I just don't see it, but ya, the Bulls can add a few nice pieces around them still.  The Bulls would end up better for sure. 

If the Bulls could trade Deng (leaving them about $40 million), then adding Boozer at the 4 and 2 shooters like Korver and/or maybe Reddick is a great spot for James or Wade.  THAT is a title contender and the Bulls could afford those four players with Boozer taking what he is worh ($13 million?).  Maybe a favorite if they spend the midlevel on a big man like Brad Miller.

Give me this:

PG- Rose
SG-Korver
SF- James
PF- Boozer
C-Noah

Bench- Taj, Brad Miller, a cheaper shooter, James Johnson

[RawdogDX]

Miller seems to be dying out there.  I don't want to spend a mid level on him which I heard the celtics are looking at doing.

[NavinRJohnson]

Certainly starting to look more and more like the Bulls, Knicks and Nets are going to end up on the outside looking in where James, Wade and Bosh are concerned, and are going to end up overpaying for guys like Boozer, Miller, etc., when they get desperate and find themselves competing with one another for those second tier guys.

[GoldenWarrior]

I think the Bulls should certainly pursue Boozer and Korver... Korver is a solid shooter, but his defense is questionable at best and his overall lack of athleticism.  Boozer is a nice piece, but it all depends on his price tag (not a MAX guy).

I'm hoping the Cavs could somehow pull off something here, maybe even the back stabber (Boozer) in a sign and trade or something, but not exactly holding my breathe thankfully

[HoopsMalone]

Bulls should add Boozer, Korver, Anthony Morrow (lead NBA in 3 pt %, 24 years old), Brad Miller, and then sit on some money and see what opportunities present itself at the trade deadline.

[damuts222]

 As much as I hated Reddick in college, as a Bulls fan I think he is a better option than Korver. He has really come on strong in the last year or so.

[GoldenWarrior]

As much as I hated Reddick in college, as a Bulls fan I think he is a better option than Korver. He has really come on strong in the last year or so.

+1 all the way around