NFC North Pissing Match

[NavinRJohnson]

so now you set the criteria at 11 players.  interesting.

Ummmm...no. You actually did when you said that you should expect a star with the 5th pick. 11 is simply more than half, which is the minimum standard I would say is reasonable to say that should in fact be an expectation. If less than half of the 5th picks turn out to be stars (which is clearly the case), on what do you base that conclusion? I would be interested in an answer you can actually substantiate with some facts. What you want to happen doesn't get it done.

Kinda like me saying I expect you to express an opinion on this issue you can support with facts/history, when there is clearly no basis for me to have that expectation.

[Hards Alumni]

what is a reasonable expectaton for the 5th overall pick in the draft?

a starter?

a star?

I am not the only person bringing up the B-word with AJ Hawk.  Others on the board, people in the media... they are saying he is a borderline bust.

everyone is giving Chico crap about TBuck... but he ended up being a decent player when he left GB.  50 career interceptions is actually quite a lot... was he a "bust" 2 years into his career?  I don't expect many people would say no.  If you actually look at his career numbers, he had a good overall career.

I would say that TBuck and Hawk are VERY comparable.  Both had high expectations placed on them their rookie season.  Both didn't exactly live up to their billing.

With TBuck as the 5th overall pick, people were EXPECTING him to be the next Deion Sanders.

What I am getting at is that people who have the 5th overall pick EXPECT to have a bonafied STAR.  Are they disappointed often?  YES.  But that doesn't change that they are EXPECTING a star.

Simply because they haven't ALL been stars (which you could say for ANY PICK IN THE TOP 10) doesn't mean that they aren't all EXPECTED to be.

follow?

by your logic, the #1 overall pick isn't an expected star (since only half of them since 1990 have made even ONE probowl!)...  really?  you don't expect a star from the #1 overall pick?  REALLY?

what. the. crap. dude.

you are creating the conclusion from your extremely limited sample set.  You are trying to create statistics where they don't apply.  Your logic is astonishingly faulty.  Please try again.

[GGGG]

General NFL question...

TOP 5 WR in the league based on skill level right now.  This was a debate at my office today.


I'll start: L Fitz, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith, Randy Moss.


What started this was the question: Brandon Marshall, a top 5 talent?

I don't think he is better than the five you list above.  He's in the next five...but I'd rather have Greg Jennings.

[MU B2002]

I don't think he is better than the five you list above.  He's in the next five...but I'd rather have Greg Jennings.

I agree.


And now that all the glorified scrimmages are over, let's get on to the real games. 

Actually got offered tickets to last nights GB-TEN game, including the opportunity to hang out on the sidelines pregame, and turned it down in order to play softball.  And after watching highlights of TN's practice squad beat GB's practice squad I think I made the right choice.

[NavinRJohnson]

Simply because they haven't ALL been stars (which you could say for ANY PICK IN THE TOP 10) doesn't mean that they aren't all EXPECTED to be.

My point is simple...those expectations are not based on facts or history. I prefer to base my expectations on what has actually happened. You? What you want to happen.

FOLLOW?

With TBuck as the 5th overall pick, people were EXPECTING him to be the next Deion Sanders.

Yeah, stupid people. Any reasonable person could hope he was as good as one of the best DBs ever, but to expect it is ludicrous. Hey, Mark Sanchez was taken with the 5th pick in the draft...do you expect him to be the next Brett Favre? John Elway? Joe Montana? If you do, you're an idiot. Why? More 1st round QB's have bombed out than have actually been successful.

FOLLOW?

everyone is giving Chico crap about TBuck... If you actually look at his career numbers, he had a good overall career.

I would say that TBuck and Hawk are VERY comparable.  

Well, if they're VERY comparable, which is it? Buckley had a good career, or he was a bust, as you have unequivocally stated Hawk is.

you are creating the conclusion from your extremely limited sample set.  You are trying to create statistics where they don't apply.  Your logic is astonishingly faulty.  

My logic is faulty? You are the one saying it is reasonable to expect a star player with the 5th pick, simply because he is the 5th pick, even though history clearly demonstrates that stars are the exception, and not the rule. I assure you (were I willing to take the time), I could repeat the exercise with similar results with every position and round in the draft - collectively and individually.

Do you want to end up with a star player with a Top 10 pick? Absolutely. Is it reasonable to expect it to work out that way even half the time? Nope.

Using your 'logic' any player that isn't a star, is a bust (with the exception of T-Buck of course). Therefore, in the last 20 years, 60-70% of of all players taken with the 5th pick have been busts. Yet, in your odd little football world, a star should automatically be expected. makes sense.

[GGGG]

I agree.


And now that all the glorified scrimmages are over, let's get on to the real games. 

Actually got offered tickets to last nights GB-TEN game, including the opportunity to hang out on the sidelines pregame, and turned it down in order to play softball.  And after watching highlights of TN's practice squad beat GB's practice squad I think I made the right choice.

Here's how much I hate pre-season football.  I watched South Carolina beat NCSU 7-3 instead.  Truly awful football game.

[LON]

Here's how much I hate pre-season football.  I watched South Carolina beat NCSU 7-3 instead.  Truly awful football game.

I watched Ron Artest: Part II.

EDIT:  The kid from Boise St. totally instigated it and I'm kinda glad that smirk got wiped off his face.  Totally should not have thrown the punch, but it was still better than Carmello's.

[Hards Alumni]

My point is simple...those expectations are not based on facts or history. I prefer to base my expectations on what has actually happened. You? What you want to happen.

FOLLOW?

Yeah, stupid people. Any reasonable person could hope he was as good as one of the best DBs ever, but to expect it is ludicrous. Hey, Mark Sanchez was taken with the 5th pick in the draft...do you expect him to be the next Brett Favre? John Elway? Joe Montana? If you do, you're an idiot. Why? More 1st round QB's have bombed out than have actually been successful.

FOLLOW?

Well, if they're VERY comparable, which is it? Buckley had a good career, or he was a bust, as you have unequivocally stated Hawk is.


My logic is faulty? You are the one saying it is reasonable to expect a star player with the 5th pick, simply because he is the 5th pick, even though history clearly demonstrates that stars are the exception, and not the rule. I assure you (were I willing to take the time), I could repeat the exercise with similar results with every position and round in the draft - collectively and individually.

Do you want to end up with a star player with a Top 10 pick? Absolutely. Is it reasonable to expect it to work out that way even half the time? Nope.

Using your 'logic' any player that isn't a star, is a bust (with the exception of T-Buck of course). Therefore, in the last 20 years, 60-70% of of all players taken with the 5th pick have been busts. Yet, in your odd little football world, a star should automatically be expected. makes sense.

you missed the point, but I am not surprised.

GMs don't go into the draft thinking you are going to whiff on a pick.  If they do, they deserve to fail.  On draft day everyone is SURE they have a star... especially if they are a top 5 pick.  The players have been scouted and critiqued on every part of their game.  GMs don't expect to draft a turd, GMs expect a star.  Realistically, are they all stars? NO OF COURSE THEY AREN'T.  BUT THE SAME CAN BE SAID OF ANY OF THE TOP 5 PICKS.  You really aren't saying anything of substance here!  The way you see it, you may as well throw a dart at a dartboard and pick that way and hope for the best no matter who you hit.

If you think you are trying to tell someone that the earth is round to someone who think its flat, rest assured, you aren't.  I agree a lot of players don't work out!  I never, anywhere in my argument said that players are only either stars or busts!  Obviously, there is a lot of middle ground.  I would put TBuck and AJ Hawk in the same middle ground, with a serious lean towards the BUST side rather than the STAR side.

TBuck's career through 3 seasons was unimpressive... just like AJ Hawks.  Follow?  Most people considered TBuck a bust after 3 years... obviously the Packers did.  As it looks now AJ Hawk isn't one of the best LBs on the Packers... how can you say he isn't trending toward a bust?  Now do you understand my comparison?  Could AJ Hawk have a decent career in the long run?  Yes! 

I'm not sure what sort of facts or history you can use to state that TBuck would never be the next Deion Sanders... Their college numbers were comparable, and they are similar style players.  What sort of 'facts and history' could you have used at the time to prove that TBuck was going to be a bust?  I'd REALLY like to know.  The simple fact is you didn't know, the experts didn't know.  If you knew you'd probably be collecting a GM's salary, but you aren't, are you?  If they didn't expect TBuck to be a star they would not have drafted him 5th overall.  There are "upside" guys and "potential" guys in every draft, but from most everyone's perspective TBuck was a sure thing.  REASONABLE EXPECTATION.

[GGGG]

I watched Ron Artest: Part II.

EDIT:  The kid from Boise St. totally instigated it and I'm kinda glad that smirk got wiped off his face.  Totally should not have thrown the punch, but it was still better than Carmello's.

It was cute until he tried to take on the entire city of Boise.

[Moonboots]

I'm not going to write a dissertation on perceived value and expectation with regards to the NFL draft.  But if anyone thinks Ted Thompson took Hawk at pick #5 and said to himself "gosh, I hope this guy is a somewhat above average starting LB in the NFL someday" they're fooling themselves.  If any Packer fan had that same thought when Hawk was drafted, I don't know what to tell you.

[GGGG]

I'm not going to write a dissertation on perceived value and expectation with regards to the NFL draft.  But if anyone thinks Ted Thompson took Hawk at pick #5 and said to himself "gosh, I hope this guy is a somewhat above average starting LB in the NFL someday" they're fooling themselves.  If any Packer fan had that same thought when Hawk was drafted, I don't know what to tell you.

I heard a number of fans think that he was the Packer's answer to Urlacher.  I heard a lot of references to Butkus v. Nitschkie Part II.

[NavinRJohnson]

I never, anywhere in my argument said that players are only either stars or busts!  Obviously, there is a lot of middle ground.  I would put TBuck and AJ Hawk in the same middle ground, with a serious lean towards the BUST side rather than the STAR side.

That's funny, because yesterday on two separate occasions you said unequivocally...

"AJ Hawk IS a bust." and "he is a bust."

Seems the story has changed again. Which is it?

Of course a team thinks they are making the right pick, but your position seems to be that if AJ Hawk doesn't turn into Mike Singletary, he's a bust, when history indicates that if you end up with a player that is a starter for a few years and maybe sees a pro bowl or two, you've actually done pretty well. Will Hawk do that? Doesn't necessarily look that way, but ask me again in a few months. For every Deion Sanders there is also a Todd Lyght and a Curtis Enis. On the whole, despite all the homework and preparation, GMs miss more than they hit when it comes to finding 1st round picks that turn into star players. I'm sure you would agree.

I have a hard time slapping the bust tag on a guy that made the all-rookie team and led his team in tackles his first year, was second in his second year, and spent the third year out of position and led a banged up and bad defense in tackles again.

[Moonboots]

To change course a little bit, looks like the Consensus Vikes are falling further and further away (as if they ever were in the first place...)

We asked 11 National Football League television analysts or announcers to pick the NFC North champion this season.

Their comments suggest the title will be won by either the Green Bay Packers or the defending champion Minnesota Vikings:

Jimmy Johnson (Fox studio analyst): "I'm picking Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers, with what he did last year, even though some of it was not at the end of games. But overall, for the season he had, for the preseason he has had, being the head man in that offense, I think they are going to be good, . . .  With all the buzz that you have in Minnesota, and the buzz that you have in Chicago, I think the Packers are the team to beat in that division."

Troy Aikman (Fox game analyst): "I am still sticking with Green Bay for a couple of reasons. I like what they did during the off-season. I have played against Dom Capers in a lot of big games. I know what he can do. I think he is really going to help that defensive group. . . .  Aaron Rodgers had an excellent year last year and doing it with everyone watching. He held up to the scrutiny. He did that very well."

Chris Berman (ESPN studio host): "Aaron Rodgers was the best player on the team last year. Now they look like they are going to have a better team all the way around him, starting with defense. Certainly if we are to judge them on the preseason, the Packers (look good). I put them ahead of the Bears. . . .  I would still rate the Vikings the favorite with the Packers right behind. Suddenly the quarterback play in the division is a hell of a lot more interesting than it was a year ago."

Keyshawn Johnson (ESPN studio analyst): "Minnesota will win that division and Green Bay will finish in second and everybody else will just toss it up in the air. Chicago, they don't have any receivers. That's a big question mark for them. And Detroit is Detroit."

Steve Young (ESPN studio analyst): "When was the last time you had four compelling quarterback stories in the NFC North? It's been a dead zone for quarterbacks for so many years, other than in Green Bay. It's fascinating. Talking about it is fun for once. If you would have asked me this question a year ago, I would have fallen asleep, just because it was so boring. Now it's actually an interesting question and fun to talk about because we have no idea how Chicago and Minnesota will deal with quarterbacks. With Brett, we have no idea what November, December, January will look like for Brett at his age. You just don't know. I'm sure Brett doesn't know. Chicago - Jay (Cutler) is Jay. That's why he's not in Denver. There are a lot of reasons why that didn't work out. You ask me who is going to win the NFC North? The most substantive players, who have been there, who have put work in, are in Green Bay. . . .  For the first time since forever I'm actually interested in what's happening in that division."

Cris Carter (ESPN studio analyst): "Brett and the weapons he has are better than any of the other defenses. Minnesota is the favorite. Their schedule Week 4 through 8 is very, very tough. They play the Packers twice, Pittsburgh sandwiched in there. Their season could pretty much be decided by the time they get the bye week in Week 9."

Marshall Faulk (NFL Network studio analyst): "The Packers. Last year, with all that was going on with Brett Favre, the Packers took a step backwards. Aaron Rodgers had a decent year. What I have seen from him this year, he will have even a better year than last year. The running game will be better with Ryan Grant in place. The offensive line is pretty good. And what they have done on defense. . . .  They are not going to put their corners out on an island, playing man-to-man all the time."

Michael Irvin (NFL Network studio analyst): "It's going to be sad. A lot of us out here look at Brett Favre and we love him, appreciate all that he has done. But Green Bay is about to beat him again. That's just how it is going to end up. Green Bay is the best team in the North."

Ron Jaworski (ESPN game analyst): "The Minnesota Vikings are the team to beat not only in the NFC North, but in the NFC, period. I think they are a complete football team."

Mike Tirico (ESPN game announcer): "I like Green Bay. . . .  I like the way their (defensive) personnel feel about the 3-4. Can they physically do it? We won't know until we see it. But I liked what I saw in their confidence when I was up there. Dom Capers is a heck of a defensive coach. That's an area that let them down. . . .  Aaron is a year better. The group that is around him is pretty good."

Jon Gruden (ESPN game analyst): "I think this is going to be a knockdown, drag-out division this year. I'm more excited to follow this division than any other division in football. Three new quarterbacks. You talk about Brett Favre playing for Minnesota, (Matthew) Stafford in Detroit, the guy in Chicago, (Jay) Cutler. And Aaron Rodgers might be better than all of them."

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/57109897.html

Of course, Jay Bee will call the ones who pick Minnesota well educated, top notch analysts, and the ones who pick Green Bay as uninformed hacks.  

Speaking of credible analysts, Mike Lombardi from the National Football Post (you know, the guy with 25 years of experience as an NFL executive working with Bill Walsh, Bill Belichick and Marty Shottenheimer, and one of the main architects of the Oakland Raiders Super Bowl team) picks the Packers to not only win the North, but represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.  What a worthless hack.

EDIT: Please note that preseason prognostications are generally worthless, and I think as much.  This is merely further evidence that Minnesota isn't, and never was, the consensus pick in the NFC North.

[NavinRJohnson]

But if anyone thinks Ted Thompson took Hawk at pick #5 and said to himself "gosh, I hope this guy is a somewhat above average starting LB in the NFL someday" they're fooling themselves. 

Of course that's true, but ted Thompson has also been around long enough to realize that more often than not, the guy you pick is gonna end up being the wrong guy. That's true of every GM.  

[Moonboots]

I will concede that "bust" is an extremely strong word.  I only used the term in relation to where Hawk was taken.  I would say disappointment or failure to become an impact player would be a more apt term, where bust can be saved for guys like Leaf, Courtney Brown, Jamal Reynolds, Curtis Enis, and the like.

[Hards Alumni]

I'd agree with much of what was said.

for the record, in my book, trending towards bust and bust are very close to each other... for convenience sakes, of course.

[MU B2002]

and kevin jones is out for the season.  Thank you late hit out of bounds in a meaningless game.  :-(

[GOMU1104]

This never gets old:

Best...call...ever...

http://www.entertonement.com/clips/wpclxztrvh--Cardinals-Knock-Vikings-OutFootball-Minnesota-Vikings-Arizona-vs-Minnesota-2003-


Watch it all unfold...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vnl1YqcBQfg&feature=related

[Moonboots]

This never gets old:

Best...call...ever...

http://www.entertonement.com/clips/wpclxztrvh--Cardinals-Knock-Vikings-OutFootball-Minnesota-Vikings-Arizona-vs-Minnesota-2003-


Watch it all unfold...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vnl1YqcBQfg&feature=related

Phenomenal post.

[GGGG]

This never gets old:

Best...call...ever...

http://www.entertonement.com/clips/wpclxztrvh--Cardinals-Knock-Vikings-OutFootball-Minnesota-Vikings-Arizona-vs-Minnesota-2003-


Watch it all unfold...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vnl1YqcBQfg&feature=related

I watched this with a Viking fan friend of mine.  He is the honestly one of the nicest people I know.  A Lutheran pastor who would never trash talk or anything.  I almost felt bad for him.

The only thing that ruins my joy over this play is that 4th and 26 happened two weeks later.

[IAmMarquette]

I watched this with a Viking fan friend of mine.  He is the honestly one of the nicest people I know.  A Lutheran pastor who would never trash talk or anything.  I almost felt bad for him.

The only thing that ruins my joy over this play is that 4th and 26 happened two weeks later.

Ugh. FredEx. I had effectively repressed that memory. Thanks.

[Moonboots]

Ugh. FredEx. I had effectively repressed that memory. Thanks.

Terrible.  There was also an enigmatic, legendary QB, if memory serves, that lobbed up a lame duck on the first pass in overtime...

It should have never come to that point, but the fact remains.

[Moonboots]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2009/09/05/favre-on-his-ability-to-play-16-games-i-just-dont-know/

Peter King of Sports Illustrated, NBC, and Sirius NFL Radio addressed the question of whether Vikings quarterback Brett Favre can make it through a full season in one piece, despite making it through seventeen straight years without missing a start.

Said Favre to King after Monday night's preseason game, "Peter, I just don't know."

The fact that Childress allowed Favre to stay in a meaningless game on Monday night -- and throw a low block on a Wildcat play -- might be a sign that Chilly isn't as worried about keeping his superstar signal-caller safe as Chilly should be.

[Brewtown Andy]

and kevin jones is out for the season.  Thank you late hit out of bounds in a meaningless game.  :-(

He had 34 carries all of last year, 13 in week 1.  Not concerned.

[GGGG]

He had 34 carries all of last year, 13 in week 1.  Not concerned.

Yeah, no Bear fan should be worried about losing Kevin Jones.  Nonentity.