Kolek planning to go pro
Okay...so we have 10/13 opponents announced so far. With San Jose State and Maine added, we have...Nov. 13: Belmont Solid opponent, top-100 RPI last year, tough opening test against a good mid-major. Assigned by Legends Classic.Nov. 16: IUPUI 257 RPI last year. Not great, but next best opponent in the LC field. Assigned by Legends Classic.Nov. 19: Iowa 40 RPI last year. Assigned by Gavitt Games.Nov. 23: LSU 65 RPI last year. Assigned by Gavitt Games. (Not official yet)Nov. 24: NC State/ASU 32/90 RPI last year. Assigned by Gavitt Games. (Not official yet)Nov. 29: Jackson State 317 RPI last year. Scheduled by Marquette.Dec. 2: Grambling 351 RPI last year. Scheduled by Marquette.Dec. 5: Maine 338 RPI last year. Scheduled by Marquette.Dec. 8: San Jose State 336 RPI last year. Scheduled by Marquette.Dec. 11: Wisconsin 2 RPI last year. Scheduled by annual series..The 4 games scheduled by Marquette, the true "buy" games, are awful. These 4 teams had a combined 18-103 record last year. When calculating how opponents factor into your RPI, their record is the first thing considered. That's not a good thing.Three games have yet to be announced. Will they be any better than what we've seen? You almost think they have to be. But still, not good thus far. And if there was another high-major, normally those get leaked before this late in the summer. Maybe we get surprised with a late home-and-home or neutral site announcement, but it feels unlikely at this point.The old adage will be "win and it takes care of everything" and there's some truth to that, but if we go 2-3 against Belmont and the high majors, the weak buy games could put us behind the 8-ball as far as making the tourney before conference play even starts. A strong non-con schedule will allow for 3-4 losses while still staying in good NCAA position. This schedule, any more than 2 losses and we could be in trouble.
When is the last time our out of conference schedule kept us out of the NCAA Tournament?Until it becomes a deciding factor for us, I think we'll be just fine. Either we'll be good enough and make the Tourney or we won't. Beating Grambling instead of Lipscomb isn't going to cause us to miss the NCAA Tournament.
Alan, I only hope that this team is good enough to warrant worrying about SOS come March.
LSU and ASU/NCState are part of the Legends Classic. Not the Gavitt Games.
We really haven't been on the bubble very often in recent years, however. The one time we were still on the bubble on Selection Sunday we very nearly did miss the tournament in 2011. That non-con looked very similar to this year -- four high-major games, all of which we lost. However, we had two top-100 wins (Bucknell & UWM) and another top-200 win (Green Bay). There were 4 sub-300 opponents on that schedule, two more sub-250. We went 9-9 in conference and needed two wins at the BET to get in as an 11-seed.That team barely made the tourney, and thus far, this year's non-conference looks even worse than that one was. And our conference slate likely won't give us the 10 opportunities against top-25 RPI teams we had that year. In recent years, SMU (2014), Iowa (2013), Drexel (2012), and Virginia Tech (2011, 2010) have all missed out with non-conference schedule largely being blamed for their snub.The tougher these games, the more leeway you get in March. This schedule doesn't give us a lot of flexibility.
The thing that kept SMU in 2014, Iowa in 2013, Drexel in 2012, and Virginia Tech in 2011 and 2010 is that they had very few quality wins. Their problem was not scheduling a sub 300 RPI team instead of a 250-300 RPI team, it was that they didn't have any quality wins.Look, if we our only wins are our cupcakes and the bottom half Big East teams this year, we aren't going to the NCAA regardless of whether those cupcakes were Grambling or Belmont. If we beat Wisconsin, LSU, and NC State and finish 5th in the Big East, we are going to the NCAA Tournament regardless of the fact that we had a bunch of Grambling level teams on our schedule.The NCAA Tournament Committee has come out and praised teams who go out and play tough out of conference games. They are referencing games like Wisconsin, LSU, and NC State, not Lehigh, Western Kentucky, and Central Michigan.
To get into the NCAA Tournament you have to beat quality opponents.
Can anyone objectively say how much MU's RPI would have improved last year taking out the 300+ opponents and replacing them with say teams that were about 220?
We picked the wrong year to have only a 2 game "tournament"So we only play 4 high major teams? Lame.Played 6 last year.
Your chances of beating quality opponents go up if you actually, you know, play quality opponents.