[Cracked Sidewalks] UW-Madison Preview

[brewcity77]

On paper, this team is really good. Like, borderline "how are people not talking about them as a national title contender" good. If they can continue to channel the improvements they made over last season, this could be the best Badger team since their NCAA runner-up finish in 2015. Here's the Cracked Sidewalks look at Bucky:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/11/uw-madison-preview-2020-21.html

[tower912]

MU will lose this one.

[The Big East]

Badgers have a well defined program that cranks our winning teams year after year. When the Badger team gets to the point in their roster cycle where they are loaded with upper class men they are very hard to beat.

We would have to play a mistake free game to stay close. I think playing with no fans helps us this year . Historically there are a lot of UW fans at this game even though it’s a home game for us .

[Uncle Rico]

UW-Madison sucks

[wadesworld]

They’re being talked about as a Final Four team, which is a joke. They split the B1G title, with 6 losses. Madison fans wanted a coaching change in January. Then they went on a nice run to end the year, but they beat a total of 1 ranked team during that winning streak. When Nate Ruevers and D’Mitric Trice are your best players you aren’t a Final Four team. They’ll be solid but they’re more of a 5 seed than a 1 seed to me.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I wonder how good they were in the conference portion of their year or how bad the conference was last season? Their win streak was against mostly crappy B1G teams.

They will be good this season but more so defensively, with their usual offensive efficiency.  But, if teams run hot early in games and grab an early lead, this team will have trouble getting back into games.

MU will get manhandled I agree.

[brewcity77]

I wonder how good they were in the conference portion of their year or how bad the conference was last season? Their win streak was against mostly crappy B1G teams.

Aside from Northwestern and Nebraska, I'm not sure there were any crappy Big 10 teams last year. 4 of those 8 teams were projected to go to the NCAA Tournament, as was the Michigan State team they beat right before the streak. They also beat a Purdue team that was top-25 in kenpom but just took too many losses in conference play to be in line for a tourney berth.

I guess the question is what's the reality. Did they win 8 straight, 6 of which were against top-35 and NCAA caliber teams, or did they just win 8 straight with 6 against teams that were .500 or worse in conference?

[wadesworld]

Aside from Northwestern and Nebraska, I'm not sure there were any crappy Big 10 teams last year. 4 of those 8 teams were projected to go to the NCAA Tournament, as was the Michigan State team they beat right before the streak. They also beat a Purdue team that was top-25 in kenpom but just took too many losses in conference play to be in line for a tourney berth.

I guess the question is what's the reality. Did they win 8 straight, 6 of which were against top-35 and NCAA caliber teams, or did they just win 8 straight with 6 against teams that were .500 or worse in conference?

To me it’s somewhere in the middle. They’re good, but not great. This is a classic Bo team before Bo upgraded his talent the last couple years he was around. They’ll win a lot of games, but I don’t see them going past the Sweet 16.

[brewcity77]

To me it’s somewhere in the middle. They’re good, but not great. This is a classic Bo team before Bo upgraded his talent the last couple years he was around. They’ll win a lot of games, but I don’t see them going past the Sweet 16.

Entirely possible they have a NCAA ceiling, but even before Bo had studs like Kaminsky and Dekker, he was still winning 25+ games on a fairly regular basis. Maybe they are just a metrics darling, but they have the look of those regular season juggernauts Bo churned out for years, and this team is deeper and more experienced than a lot of his older teams (he often ran a 6-7 man rotation).

[Uncle Rico]

Entirely possible they have a NCAA ceiling, but even before Bo had studs like Kaminsky and Dekker, he was still winning 25+ games on a fairly regular basis. Maybe they are just a metrics darling, but they have the look of those regular season juggernauts Bo churned out for years, and this team is deeper and more experienced than a lot of his older teams (he often ran a 6-7 man rotation).

They are a metrics darling, year in and year out.  Still need NBA players to win it all.  They’ll play low possession games like they always do and like the Bo teams pre-Dank and Dork, have a terrible shooting night or get run off the court in March by a Cornell or Davidson. 

[bilsu]

They are probably the most experience team in the NCAA this year and they will not beat themselves.

[WarriorPride68]

When Nate Ruevers and D’Mitric Trice are your best players you aren’t a Final Four team.

Bob Cousy & Karl Malone watch lists respectively & the big guy from OSU is on Kareem Abdul Jabar watch list. Could see them making another run without fans in March madness weirdness.

Will need a huge game from Koby. DJ could be X factor, although did nothing vs UW last year. Trice was unreal on Markus last year

[Uncle Rico]

They are probably the most experience team in the NCAA this year and they will not beat themselves.

So, no nut punching?

[Stretchdeltsig]

On paper, this team is really good. Like, borderline "how are people not talking about them as a national title contender" good. If they can continue to channel the improvements they made over last season, this could be the best Badger team since their NCAA runner-up finish in 2015. Here's the Cracked Sidewalks look at Bucky:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/11/uw-madison-preview-2020-21.html

[Stretchdeltsig]

On paper, this team is really good. Like, borderline "how are people not talking about them as a national title contender" good. If they can continue to channel the improvements they made over last season, this could be the best Badger team since their NCAA runner-up finish in 2015. Here's the Cracked Sidewalks look at Bucky:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/11/uw-madison-preview-2020-21.html

This does belong here.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Aside from Northwestern and Nebraska, I'm not sure there were any crappy Big 10 teams last year. 4 of those 8 teams were projected to go to the NCAA Tournament, as was the Michigan State team they beat right before the streak. They also beat a Purdue team that was top-25 in kenpom but just took too many losses in conference play to be in line for a tourney berth.

I guess the question is what's the reality. Did they win 8 straight, 6 of which were against top-35 and NCAA caliber teams, or did they just win 8 straight with 6 against teams that were .500 or worse in conference?

Because of the COVID-shortened season, KPom’s team rankings were whacky.  Minnesota was 27th, losing 8 of their last 11 B1G games. Rutgers was 28th, losing 6 of their last 10. PSU was 26th, losing 5 of their last 6, getting blown out by a hapless NU team. Indiana was 34th losing 8 of 12. Sorry, that’s crapity.

The B1G’s added number of conference games gave them undue weighting of the quality of that conference last year.

[brewcity77]

I understand the weighting argument, but then you have to ask who is bad. Are Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa bad? Their non-con would indicate otherwise because they all beat some good teams. So if teams like Minnesota, Penn State, and Indiana are beating them, wouldn't that indicate they are at least pretty good?

Minnesota also had wins over Ohio State (twice), Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin. 4 of those 8 losses were by a combined 11 points to projected tournament teams. Their worst conference loss was to an Indiana team that was likely going to the tournament.

Rutgers lost 6/10, but if you look at their last 11 games, they also had wins over 4 top-30 teams. Their losses were all to teams ranked between 8 and 26, all projected to go to the Tournament. All 9 of their conference losses were to tournament teams and Rutgers was definitely going to the NCAAs.

Penn State's loss to Northwestern was bad, but they had 9 top-35 wins. Indiana's 4-8 stretch you reference featured 12 top-30 teams, not to mention zero sub-50 losses and another 3 top-15 wins.

If two top-30 teams play, one is going to lose. If you are a top-30 team playing top-30 teams every night, there will be bad stretches. That doesn't make your team bad, nor would you winning make the other team bad. The Big 10 was the #1 conference in kenpom with a bullet. It wasn't close. When you play in a league that good, even good teams will take losses.

Also, I think the weighting argument suffers a bit when you look at the ACC, because the ACC was flat out trash. Three good teams and a pile of garbage after that. The 20-game schedule didn't help them even though some of the middle to bottom tier (Va Tech, Pitt, Notre Dame, NC State) did enough in non-con that it should've helped lift all boats. It will take more data to see if simply playing your own league more really makes a difference.

[Viper]

They’re being talked about as a Final Four team, which is a joke. They split the B1G title, with 6 losses. Madison fans wanted a coaching change in January. Then they went on a nice run to end the year, but they beat a total of 1 ranked team during that winning streak. When Nate Ruevers and D’Mitric Trice are your best players you aren’t a Final Four team. They’ll be solid but they’re more of a 5 seed than a 1 seed to me.

RED will win BIG outright. They’ll beat MU by 20. RED is definitely a legit Final4 contender. All Lives Matter, even UW Badgers.

[wadesworld]

RED will win BIG outright. They’ll beat MU by 20. RED is definitely a legit Final4 contender. All Lives Matter, even UW Badgers.

I'll put some money on all 3 of those things.

[Galway Eagle]

I wouldn't bet against a Garza lead Iowa team. Especially in the likely event that Davison gets his hands on some nuts which leads to a temporary suspension.

[Shooter McGavin]

Really appreciate your preseason analysis Brew.  Keep up the good work.

[muwarrior69]

UW-Madison sucks

We would have a happier fanbase if MU sucked like UW-Madison. Just saying.

[dgies9156]

My issue with Bucky is really simple. They recruit better-than-average players (three star and some four star)and somehow to get them play way over their heads.

Wisconsin doesn't beat you -- you beat yourself playing them. Usually because of lack of patience and lack of discipline. They're beatable, but the play has to be perfect and the players must be disciplined. That's hard to get with freshmen, especially given we expect major minutes from Dawson, Justin and Oso this year.

This game and Villanova probably will be the three toughest games on our schedule. I'm more confident of Villanova because by then, we've played together and both the offense and defense will be in place.

I don't see Bucky as a Final Four team because once you get past the Round of 32, talent takes over. I don't see them in the same realm as Duke, UNC, Kentucky, Villanova etc., and whoever else will be really good.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

My issue with Bucky is really simple. They recruit better-than-average players (three star and some four star)and somehow to get them play way over their heads.

Wisconsin doesn't beat you -- you beat yourself playing them. Usually because of lack of patience and lack of discipline. They're beatable, but the play has to be perfect and the players must be disciplined. That's hard to get with freshmen, especially given we expect major minutes from Dawson, Justin and Oso this year.

This game and Villanova probably will be the three toughest games on our schedule. I'm more confident of Villanova because by then, we've played together and both the offense and defense will be in place.

I don't see Bucky as a Final Four team because once you get past the Round of 32, talent takes over. I don't see them in the same realm as Duke, UNC, Kentucky, Villanova etc., and whoever else will be really good.

Loyola.

[MUfan12]

Gard is a good coach, and they actually have a defensive identity. Two things MU lacks.

[Uncle Rico]

We would have a happier fanbase if MU sucked like UW-Madison. Just saying.

Lol, no we wouldn’t.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I understand the weighting argument, but then you have to ask who is bad. Are Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa bad? Their non-con would indicate otherwise because they all beat some good teams. So if teams like Minnesota, Penn State, and Indiana are beating them, wouldn't that indicate they are at least pretty good?

Minnesota also had wins over Ohio State (twice), Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin. 4 of those 8 losses were by a combined 11 points to projected tournament teams. Their worst conference loss was to an Indiana team that was likely going to the tournament.

Rutgers lost 6/10, but if you look at their last 11 games, they also had wins over 4 top-30 teams. Their losses were all to teams ranked between 8 and 26, all projected to go to the Tournament. All 9 of their conference losses were to tournament teams and Rutgers was definitely going to the NCAAs.

Penn State's loss to Northwestern was bad, but they had 9 top-35 wins. Indiana's 4-8 stretch you reference featured 12 top-30 teams, not to mention zero sub-50 losses and another 3 top-15 wins.

If two top-30 teams play, one is going to lose. If you are a top-30 team playing top-30 teams every night, there will be bad stretches. That doesn't make your team bad, nor would you winning make the other team bad. The Big 10 was the #1 conference in kenpom with a bullet. It wasn't close. When you play in a league that good, even good teams will take losses.

Also, I think the weighting argument suffers a bit when you look at the ACC, because the ACC was flat out trash. Three good teams and a pile of garbage after that. The 20-game schedule didn't help them even though some of the middle to bottom tier (Va Tech, Pitt, Notre Dame, NC State) did enough in non-con that it should've helped lift all boats. It will take more data to see if simply playing your own league more really makes a difference.

You kinda make my point for me.  Crappy teams playing each other. And Bucky took advantage of that but that does not make them a Final 4 team. 

Agree on ACC yet the top teams were all significantly better than any team in the B1G. Twelve out of B1G 14 teams in the KPom Top 34 is nonsensical.

[brewcity77]

I wouldn't bet against a Garza lead Iowa team. Especially in the likely event that Davison gets his hands on some nuts which leads to a temporary suspension.

I would. They belong in the 20-30 range, not the crazy top-5 people seem to think they are. They play no defense and don't add anything to the roster that wasn't already there last year. Their offense will be good, their defense will be terrible. Fran has never finished with a top-20 team according to Pomeroy. I see no reason that would change this year.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Madison seems to me to be a solid three or four seed when all is said and done.  How far they advance beyond the S16 will all be about match ups.  Or they could get upset by five seed before getting there.

Their Final Four teams were more talented than this bunch.  They're good don't get me wrong, but not Kaminsky / Dekker good.

[Nukem2]

Madison seems to me to be a solid three or four seed when all is said and done.  How far they advance beyond the S16 will all be about match ups.  Or they could get upset by five seed before getting there.

Their Final Four teams were more talented than this bunch.  They're good don't get me wrong, but not Kaminsky / Dekker good.

Agreed, though are there very
many teams this year that are really good?

[PGsHeroes32]

I ain’t buying the natty hype.

They will definitely be good and I would be shocked if we beat them. But I think they are more a really quality sweet 16 type team.

Obviously capable of Final 4 depending on how the draw shakes out

[Viper]

RED will win BIG outright. They’ll beat MU by 20. RED is definitely a legit Final4 contender. All Lives Matter, even UW Badgers.

I want to be wrong on each. Trust me, I have a healthy hate for RED. I find that sometimes, hate... is good.

[dgies9156]

Loyola.

Loyola was a still unbelievable fluke. No doubt that could happen again. A couple of upsets in a team’s path that clears away talented teams and, theoretically, the Red Rodent could be in the National Championship game.

Who in their right mind ever could have predicted Loyola? Ok, besides Sister Jean!

Look, with the talent we have and if Coach Wojo could coach up our team the way Bo Ryan and Greg Gard have done at Dane County Technical College, we’d be back in the McGuire era in terms of relevance. I have to give Bo and Gard credit, but I still am not impressed with Bucky as a Natty contender. Notre Dame has a better chance against Alabama in football than Bucky does of making it past the Sweet 16.

[wadesworld]

Loyola was a still unbelievable fluke. No doubt that could happen again. A couple of upsets in a team’s path that clears away talented teams and, theoretically, the Red Rodent could be in the National Championship game.

Who in their right mind ever could have predicted Loyola? Ok, besides Sister Jean!

Look, with the talent we have and if Coach Wojo could coach up our team the way Bo Ryan and Greg Gard have done at Dane County Technical College, we’d be back in the McGuire era in terms of relevance. I have to give Bo and Gard credit, but I still am not impressed with Bucky as a Natty contender. Notre Dame has a better chance against Alabama in football than Bucky does of making it past the Sweet 16.

I had them going to the Elite Eight.  They were very good that year.

[Uncle Rico]

I had them going to the Elite Eight.  They were very good that year.

When the 1-seed loses to the 16-seed in your region, things tend to open up for you.  Couple that with the 2-seed being Cincinnati who collapsed in epic fashion against the 7-seed in the 2nd round, well, things are a lot easier.  That said, Loyola was better than an 11-seed.

[wadesworld]

When the 1-seed loses to the 16-seed in your region, things tend to open up for you.  Couple that with the 2-seed being Cincinnati who collapsed in epic fashion against the 7-seed in the 2nd round, well, things are a lot easier.  That said, Loyola was better than an 11-seed.

I picked them to go to the Elite Eight before the one or two seeds lost early.  They were veteran laden and went into the NCAA Tournament with like a 30 game winning streak.

[The Big East]

My issue with Bucky is really simple. They recruit better-than-average players (three star and some four star)and somehow to get them play way over their heads.

Wisconsin doesn't beat you -- you beat yourself playing them. Usually because of lack of patience and lack of discipline. They're beatable, but the play has to be perfect and the players must be disciplined. That's hard to get with freshmen, especially given we expect major minutes from Dawson, Justin and Oso this year.

This game and Villanova probably will be the three toughest games on our schedule. I'm more confident of Villanova because by then, we've played together and both the offense and defense will be in place.

I don't see Bucky as a Final Four team because once you get past the Round of 32, talent takes over. I don't see them in the same realm as Duke, UNC, Kentucky, Villanova etc., and whoever else will be really good.

The Badgers also seem to be good at volume recruiting. They had a big 2020 class with 5 players plus a high quality preferred walk on and signed up their 2021 class early as well. It seems like that volume distills into a handful of quality college players year after year. They recruit to their system so basically they are generally reloading rather than rebuilding.

[BrewCity83]

They are probably the most experience team in the NCAA this year and they will not beat themselves.

If you think they're experienced now, wait until they ALL return for the 2021-2022 season for their fifth and sixth years.

[We R Final Four]

Loyola was a still unbelievable fluke. No doubt that could happen again. A couple of upsets in a team’s path that clears away talented teams and, theoretically, the Red Rodent could be in the National Championship game.

Who in their right mind ever could have predicted Loyola? Ok, besides Sister Jean!

Look, with the talent we have and if Coach Wojo could coach up our team the way Bo Ryan and Greg Gard have done at Dane County Technical College, we’d be back in the McGuire era in terms of relevance. I have to give Bo and Gard credit, but I still am not impressed with Bucky as a Natty contender. Notre Dame has a better chance against Alabama in football than Bucky does of making it past the Sweet 16.

I had them in my final four.