NFC North / NFL Thread 2018-19

[Pakuni]

If there was a straight trade for Mack right now, they couldn't fit him under the cap.  But if they traded for him and reworked his deal to turn salary into a signing bonus, they could spread it out over more years.

Of course we are assuming that the Packers are even interested in Mack at the Raiders' asking price.

Someone remind me again ... why are the Raiders trading one of the league's best defensive players while he's in his prime and whom they have control over for three years?
(Hint: They're not).

[MUBurrow]

Someone remind me again ... why are the Raiders trading one of the league's best defensive players while he's in his prime and whom they have control over for three years?
(Hint: They're not).

Reggie McKenzie never would. The reason its a story is because everyone is inferring that Gruden is actually in control of all football ops, and is also totally insane.

[GGGG]

They'll only trade him if they get the equivalent of two firsts, which is what they would get if they tagged him as a RFA after this year and someone signed him to an offer sheet.  The Packers (plus other teams) aren't going to give up that much and then tie him to a big contract.  One injury that that becomes a horrid deal.

[Pakuni]

They'll only trade him if they get the equivalent of two firsts, which is what they would get if they tagged him as a RFA after this year and someone signed him to an offer sheet.  The Packers (plus other teams) aren't going to give up that much and then tie him to a big contract.  One injury that that becomes a horrid deal.

I'd be very surprised if they even traded him for two firsts.
Again, we're talking about an elite 27-year-old defender who plays the second-most important position in the game and has an impeccable record on and off the field. And one the Raiders can keep for about $50 million over the next three seasons ... very reasonable considering the kind of guarantees Von Miller and Aaron Donald are getting.
Unless you get very lucky, you won't get that kind of value out of two first-round picks, especially considering that history says at least one of those two will not become a quality player.

[GGGG]

I'd be very surprised if they even traded him for two firsts.
Again, we're talking about an elite 27-year-old defender who plays the second-most important position in the game and has an impeccable record on and off the field. And one the Raiders can keep for about $50 million over the next three seasons ... very reasonable considering the kind of guarantees Von Miller and Aaron Donald are getting.
Unless you get very lucky, you won't get that kind of value out of two first-round picks, especially considering that history says at least one of those two will not become a quality player.

Yeah you might be right.  I agree that I don't see anyway he gets traded.

[Pakuni]

Yeah you might be right.  I agree that I don't see anyway he gets traded.

Of course, one caveat here is that we're talking about the Raiders, a franchise not well know for rational decisionmaking  over the past 20 years.

[jesmu84]

I'd be very surprised if they even traded him for two firsts.
Again, we're talking about an elite 27-year-old defender who plays the second-most important position in the game and has an impeccable record on and off the field. And one the Raiders can keep for about $50 million over the next three seasons ... very reasonable considering the kind of guarantees Von Miller and Aaron Donald are getting.
Unless you get very lucky, you won't get that kind of value out of two first-round picks, especially considering that history says at least one of those two will not become a quality player.

Good topic. Is a known/quality player like Mack worth at least the value of 2 first round picks? Considering the "crapshoot" of draft picks?

[MUBurrow]

Good topic. Is a known/quality player like Mack worth at least the value of 2 first round picks? Considering the "crapshoot" of draft picks?

All depends on whether you measure his value against a new deal or the current deal + 2 franchise years, yeah? I wouldn't deal 2 firsts if I also had to give him a new deal. If I knew for a fact he'd play this year out and wouldn't sit out if I franchised him twice, then I could bring myself to part with two firsts, provided I had my QB locked in for the next 3+ years.

[Jockey]

I'd be very surprised if they even traded him for two firsts.
Again, we're talking about an elite 27-year-old defender who plays the second-most important position in the game and has an impeccable record on and off the field. And one the Raiders can keep for about $50 million over the next three seasons ... very reasonable considering the kind of guarantees Von Miller and Aaron Donald are getting.
Unless you get very lucky, you won't get that kind of value out of two first-round picks, especially considering that history says at least one of those two will not become a quality player.

That's assuming he doesn't sit/hold out.

[Pakuni]

That's assuming he doesn't sit/hold out.

That would be leaving $50+ million on the table - not to mention endorsement opportunities -  pissing away the prime earning years of his career and getting nothing out of it, since if he holds out for more than 10 weeks, his existing deal (and the two franchise tag years) carry over to the next.

[DegenerateDish]

The biggest winner in the Rodgers signing is going to be Russell Wilson. PFT brought it up too, but if he does play out his final two years and doesn’t get hurt, he is going to break the bank if he plays 2020-2022 on the tag.

Wilson 2020 tag $30.3, 2021 $36.4, 2022 $52.4 (!).

From 2018-2022, Wilson would pocket $151.7 million. Wilson then hits the open market in 2023 to make another truckload (this all assumes he stays healthy and Seattle franchises him until 2023).

I wondered why any star player, especially QB’s, don’t just take on the risk/reward Wilson will with the franchise tag.

[Pakuni]

The biggest winner in the Rodgers signing is going to be Russell Wilson. PFT brought it up too, but if he does play out his final two years and doesn’t get hurt, he is going to break the bank if he plays 2020-2022 on the tag.

Wilson 2020 tag $30.3, 2021 $36.4, 2022 $52.4 (!).

From 2018-2022, Wilson would pocket $151.7 million. Wilson then hits the open market in 2023 to make another truckload (this all assumes he stays healthy and Seattle franchises him until 2023).

I wondered why any star player, especially QB’s, don’t just take on the risk/reward Wilson will with the franchise tag.

Worked out for this guy:

[Jockey]

That would be leaving $50+ million on the table - not to mention endorsement opportunities -  pissing away the prime earning years of his career and getting nothing out of it, since if he holds out for more than 10 weeks, his existing deal (and the two franchise tag years) carry over to the next.

You're right, but he is currently leaving money on the table by holding out.

[MU82]

Well, Colin Kaepernick can't get on a roster, but he was a winner today (or at least not a loser).

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24526180/arbitrator-sends-colin-kaepernick-grievance-nfl-trial

PHILADELPHIA -- An arbitrator is sending Colin Kaepernick's grievance with the NFL to trial, denying the league's request to throw out the quarterback's claims that owners conspired to keep him out of the league because of his protests of social injustice.

Kaepernick, who led the San Francisco 49ers to a Super Bowl appearance and NFC championship game in consecutive seasons, argues that owners have colluded to keep him off any NFL roster since he hit free agency in 2017.

Burbank's decision means there was sufficient evidence of collusion to keep Kaepernick's drive going.

Interesting. And Eric Reid has a similar case pending.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Two first rounders for Mack. Raiders gonna Raider.

[Pakuni]

Oh well, please submit my bad posts to Frozen Cold Takes.

[Jockey]

Mack to the Bears

that's what teams can do when they don't have to pay a QB. Just like seattle.


Surprising that Gruden never even met with Mack once.

[DegenerateDish]

A team that was going to take on a massive contract for Mack was going to need to have a QB on a rookie deal. I said a while ago that on paper the Bears made sense since Trubisky doesn’t get paid for a few years still. I didn’t think the capital made sense though for the Bears, especially with no 2nd round pick next year.

[HutchwasClutch]

Hope Mack acquisition works out as well as Darvish to Cubs has

[DegenerateDish]

Quick initial thoughts:

I don’t expect the Bears to be a playoff team this year, even with Mack. Too much newness to the team in my opinion. Floyd is hurt, Smith had almost no preseason, Mack is joining five minutes before the season starts. I do fully expect them to contend in ‘19 however. Which gets to the big point, it’s really on Trubisky now. If he sucks, they will still suck. Lot of pressure on him even more so after the Mack trade.

Two 1’s is a ton, but this is a passer/pass rusher league, and to get one of the top three defensive players in the league in his prime was going to cost a ton. They have a ton of cap space, so hopefully they frontload his salary in year one to help offset the signing bonus spread. Issue becomes in years two/three, with no first rounder, Bears are going to have to spend in FA to address needs.

[HutchwasClutch]

Trubisky doesn’t get paid for a few years still.

He may never get paid. And if he fails to earn that big contract when his rookie deal is up, acquiring Mack won’t amount to very much.  All about QB play in this league.  Everyone knows it.

[DegenerateDish]

He may never get paid. And if he fails to earn that big contract when his rookie deal is up, acquiring Mack won’t amount to very much.  All about QB play in this league.  Everyone knows it.

Which makes rushing the QB so valuable.

[MUEng92]

I am going to choose to think of it that the Bears are 1-2 severe injuries away from being completely irrelevant for the rest of my lifetime. And I'm only 48.

[HutchwasClutch]

Which makes rushing the QB so valuable.

Great pass rushers are extremely valuable. But their value in the overall compared to a great QB pales significantly in this league. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

Bears certainly are giving up and paying a lot but this significantly improves an above average defense.  With a young QB and an offense in transition, this makes more sense.  Let's face it.  One of the main problems the Bears have had vs. The Pack is they couldn't get AR off the field.

How are folks seeing the Pack defense this year?  Hard for me to tell but was wondering how the homeowners are feeling?  Fantasy sites have them 18-22.