NFC North / NFL Thread 2018-19

[GGGG]

The next collective bargaining negotiations are going to be a disaster. Neither the owners nor the PA can find their @$$ with both hands, though I suspect the owners will be able to come together more quickly and resolutely than the PA.

I do have a bit of sympathy for the NFLPA in that I think they're in the most difficult position of any of the major sports players' associations in that its constituents have wildly divergent goals/needs (though if the MLBPA gave a damn about its minor leaguers, they would also be in a tough spot - ignoring them altogether has nicely solved that problem). Of the major sports, NFL players have the shortest careers, most lasting physical damage, least marketability outside a couple stars, and no other market for their services. In my estimation, that (plus the huge rosters of a limited number of teams) makes it tougher to balance the interests of Aaron Rodgers, LeVeon Bell, and a guard drafted in the 6th round vs most other sports.

Yep.  Which means that the players have no real interest in the long-term health of the union.  Do to the short careers, they have a limited window to earn their living.

[mu03eng]

Yep.  Which means that the players have no real interest in the long-term health of the union.  Do to the short careers, they have a limited window to earn their living.

Which is how they ended up screwing themselves in the last CBA when they fought for the rookie contract scale. Since rookies become a largely known cost, teams would rather get 4 or 5 years of team control for a player who might become a bargin in the later years of the contract versus resigning or picking up free agents who are much higher cap hits even though the downside risk is somewhat lower.

I firmly believe this has also impacted the quality of the league....the movement to youth means that teams are having to teach their systems to new players all the time and with shortened off season training opportunities it takes until the 4th or 5th week of the season for the new players to "get it" plus they aren't prepared for the rigors of an NFL season so more injuries happen.

Not totally sure what the fix is but I do know there are all sorts of issues at there that the NFL/NFLPA needs serious leadership to resolve and instead we have a clown car that's maxed out in capacity.

[Jockey]

If that was the case, the NFL would ignore on-field safety concerns, fine/suspend all players who don't stand for the anthem and become 'Murica's National Pastime! (fires shotgun into the air)

I actually think the NFL is doing the opposite by trying to appease their entire diverse fanbase, which, as you stated, is making them "walk some sort of wishy washy line that makes no one happy." They want to protect the players from violence...while cashing in on violence. They want the players to stand for the anthem...but also respect their right to protest peacefully. They want to come down hard on players for off-field violations...depending on the general public's response to the transgression. There's no consistency in what they do and the relationship between players and management is terrible, especially compared to the NBA and MLB...leagues that guarantee contracts and do more to market their star players. $$$$$

I disagree, Merritt. The NFL has ignored player safety for decades, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. They only started coming around after the lawsuits started piling up. Without the lawsuits nothing would have been done.

The NFL absolutely does not want players speaking out. They are threatening them with fines and suspensions. Some owners want them kicked out of the league. The two guys who were the most outspoken have both been blackballed by the league and not even a single owner has stood up for them.

Come down hard for off-field transgressions? Yeah, awarding multi-million dollars contracts will really show these guys that they shouldn't be beating women.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

They truly have embarrassed themselves on the anthem issue and now they almost surely will "lose" no matter what they do.

Jerry Jones is the biggest embarrassment of all (not including politicians), but there are plenty of other owners who are close.

Wouldn't it be something if every Cowboys player simply took a knee? What would JJ do? Forfeit the game?

Jerry knelt last year with the team for a game.  Then it became toxic, so he's done a 180.  Clown.  (Jerry, not you 82.)

[Jockey]

Jerry knelt last year with the team for a game.  Then it became toxic, so he's done a 180.  Clown.  (Jerry, not you 82.)

https://sports.yahoo.com/dallas-sports-anchor-dale-hansen-blasts-jerry-jones-wearing-hat-national-anthem-230635060.html

[jesmu84]

The NFL doesn't give a crap about the flag code. This is all stupid.

[WarriorDad]

Jerry knelt last year with the team for a game.  Then it became toxic, so he's done a 180.  Clown.  (Jerry, not you 82.)

Apparently their QB agrees with him. 

[wadesworld]

Apparently their QB agrees with him.

Cubs fan and Cowboys fan?

Who else was a Cowboys fan on this site before?  Hmm...

[GGGG]

Apparently their QB agrees with him. 

Who cares?

[Plaque Lives Matter!]

Interesting comments from AR on a few topics.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2790059-aaron-rodgers-discusses-anthem-protests-nfl-rule-changes-and-more

I think his comments on the franchise tag and cap are interesting though predictable for his situation.

[jesmu84]

So is Khalil Mack actually available?

What would you be willing to give up from your franchise for him?

[mu03eng]

So is Khalil Mack actually available?

What would you be willing to give up from your franchise for him?

One, if not both, of the #1 picks next year

[Lennys Tap]

Cubs fan and Cowboys fan?

Who else was a Cowboys fan on this site before?  Hmm...

And he's not a Cub fan, though he does hate their possible opponent in the NLDS - the Dodgers (or Doyers as he likes to call them). He's an Angel fan all the way.

[DegenerateDish]

So is Khalil Mack actually available?

What would you be willing to give up from your franchise for him?

The talk on Twitter of the Pack trading for Mack is hilarious to me.

Sure, if you’re playing Madden, you could probably throw both next year’s #1’s to Oakland for Mack.

In the real world, it’s a trade that can’t happen as things exist today.

First off, Green Bay doesn’t have 2018 cap room to sign Mack to new paper.

Second, Green Bay has $38 mil next year in space with a ton of guys to re-sign.

Third, which is really first, is Rodgers still doesn’t have new paper. I’m sure it’d sit real well with Rodgers for the Pack to give Mack $45 mil guaranteed before taking care of him.

Fourth, it’ll be figuratively impossible under the cap to have Mack and Rodgers signed to two mega deals. I mean they could do it by cutting a combo of Perry, Bakhitari, Adams. They’d have to get both Mack and Rodgers to very creatively structure deals where each year they rotate massive individual cap hits, probably off set with more money up front which gets back to 2019 being a mess for them.

In a perfect football world, Green Bay makes sense, but in no way can I see it happening.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

So is Khalil Mack actually available?

 would you be willing to give up your franchise for him?

As a bears fan, I would be for a 53 for 1 trade.  So yes.

[WarriorDad]

Cubs fan and Cowboys fan?

Who else was a Cowboys fan on this site before?  Hmm...

Cowboys fan? No.  Where did you get that from?  I said their (not our, not my) team's QB has been in the news for the last two weeks, one of the top stories on ESPN regarding this. Difficult to miss it. SI, USA Today, ESPN, Bleacher Report, all front page stories not buried deep on team stuff. https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/06/cowboys-dak-prescott-stands-by-national-anthem-comments

That team the most liked and most hated in all NFL, hard to ignore anything they do when the press does stories on them all the time on the main sites.

Who cares?

Appears much of the media since they cannot stop reporting that news.

[WarriorDad]

And he's not a Cub fan, though he does hate their possible opponent in the NLDS - the Dodgers (or Doyers as he likes to call them). He's an Angel fan all the way.

I couldn't tell you four players on the Angels.  Trout. Ohtani. Pujols.  ???? 

[Dr. Blackheart]

I couldn't tell you four players on the Angels.  Trout. Ohtani. Pujols.  ????

NFL?

[wadesworld]

Cowboys fan? No.  Where did you get that from?  I said their (not our, not my) team's QB has been in the news for the last two weeks, one of the top stories on ESPN regarding this. Difficult to miss it. SI, USA Today, ESPN, Bleacher Report, all front page stories not buried deep on team stuff. https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/06/cowboys-dak-prescott-stands-by-national-anthem-comments

That team the most liked and most hated in all NFL, hard to ignore anything they do when the press does stories on them all the time on the main sites.

Appears much of the media since they cannot stop reporting that news.

That’s right. You’re hoopaloop not Chico’s.

[WarriorDad]

NFL?

He said I was an Angels fan, after another said I was a Cowboys fan.  Neither are true.  This place can be a little off at times.

[jmayer1]

which gets back to 2019 being a mess for them.

Can you elaborate because it doesn't look terrible to me?

According to Spotrac, they've got $35M in cap space next year and currently $6M for this year. Assuming that all gets rolled over, that will be $41M, less about $8M for the rookie pool leaves $33M in cap space. Their biggest FA are Mathews, Cobb, Clinton-Dix, and Wilkerson. Everyone else (Ryan, Montgomery, Rollins, Lewis, Kendricks, House...etc.) are just guys or restricted FAs. Mathews and Cobb will command much smaller deals unless they turn back the clock this year (unlikely) or won't be brought back. Wilkerson could go either way and, assuming he has a year more similar to 2016, Clinton-Dix will command a sizeable offer.

I agree that there isn't room to make Mack happen, which is just a twitter pipe dream, and it's clearly not as much space as they've had in some years prior (Perry and Graham aren't great deals), but it doesn't seem terrible to me, unless I'm just missing something (very possible). Of course, extensions for current players (Rodgers obviously or Dix) could also change the outlook as well, although so could cuts next offseason (Bulaga if he doesn't return to form although they don't have another answer there).

[ZiggysFryBoy]

That’s right. You’re hoopaloop not Chico’s.

What's a hoopaloop?

[barfolomew]

As a bears fan, I would be for a 53 for 1 trade.  So yes.

He said franchise, so you'd also have to throw in Ditka's mustache and the ghost of Sid Luckman.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

He said franchise, so you'd also have to throw in Ditka's mustache and the ghost of Sid Luckman.

well, Ditka's gotta coach Mack, ya know?

[DegenerateDish]

Can you elaborate because it doesn't look terrible to me?

According to Spotrac, they've got $35M in cap space next year and currently $6M for this year. Assuming that all gets rolled over, that will be $41M, less about $8M for the rookie pool leaves $33M in cap space. Their biggest FA are Mathews, Cobb, Clinton-Dix, and Wilkerson. Everyone else (Ryan, Montgomery, Rollins, Lewis, Kendricks, House...etc.) are just guys or restricted FAs. Mathews and Cobb will command much smaller deals unless they turn back the clock this year (unlikely) or won't be brought back. Wilkerson could go either way and, assuming he has a year more similar to 2016, Clinton-Dix will command a sizeable offer.

I agree that there isn't room to make Mack happen, which is just a twitter pipe dream, and it's clearly not as much space as they've had in some years prior (Perry and Graham aren't great deals), but it doesn't seem terrible to me, unless I'm just missing something (very possible). Of course, extensions for current players (Rodgers obviously or Dix) could also change the outlook as well, although so could cuts next offseason (Bulaga if he doesn't return to form although they don't have another answer there).

The first move they should make is to get Rodgers settled. How his contract gets structured will really impact their numbers. I don't want to get into too many hypotheticals here with Rodgers, but I'd guess he'd sign a two year deal, so he can get another reset in two years. For ease of math, we'll just say he gets two years $60 mil all guaranteed.

If that was the case, his cap hit goes from $21 mil to $30 mil in 2019. He'd eat up $9 mil of that $33 mil that's roughly available (your numbers look spot on by the way). Pack would then have $24 mil left, and Dix is the main issue. If they were to franchise Dix next year, it'd be at roughly $11.5. I don't think they'll get to that point with Dix, I think they'll find a way to structure a deal to not make that hit be that hard in 2019 with him.

For ease of numbers, if they did franchise him, roughly $20 mil of the $33 mil available would be eaten up by new deals for Dix and Rodgers. Obviously that can get structured a ton of different ways to get more space freed up, but in 2018 they couldn't get Mack a new deal for this season anyway. If we take Von Miller's deal as a match, you can figure out a way to get Mack at $11-$12 mil in 2019, but then in 2020, you'd have Rodgers and Mack combined having roughly over 30% of the cap committed to just them, and that's with having to get creative with a Dix contract to make Mack fit in 2019.

I think Matthews and Cobb will both walk, which if I'm the Pack I'd do too. Age/value isn't there unless they took deep hometown discounts. Wilkerson will be interesting to watch. I'd expect him to have a pretty good year if his attitude is in check (which it should be so he can get paid again next year).

In a perfect world, Mack to Green Bay makes way too much sense not to happen. They've got the picks to make it happen, he'd be a force there, and he'd anchor that D for a long time. I completely agree with the Twitter crowd that would want that trade to happen, I just can't figure out how the numbers get the Pack there without depleting other areas of the roster.

The team that actually makes some sense for a Mack trade is probably the Bears. Trubisky has cost control for three more years, they have cap space in 2018 to absorb guaranteed money this year and the next three years before having to make a decision on Trubisky. To be clear though, I don't see the Bears making this kind of deal. Their lack of a second round pick next year doesn't help their cause either.