[Cracked Sidewalks] Recapturing Momentum (plus numbers)

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Recapturing Momentum (plus numbers)

Written by: Henry Sugar

What do we have here (again)?

As NYWarrior eloquently pointed out in , "What do we have here?", it's true that Marquette is susceptible to bad matchups.  His basic conclusion is that Marquette definitely has a ceiling, and that we are likely to face a first round loss unless the matchup is good.  NYWarrior is absolutely right.  After all, we are a team that is only 3-7 against top 50 teams.  When it matters, we don't beat the good teams.  There is legitimate concern that this team will not get it done in the NCAA.

What is causing even more consternation is that this is the most likely window for the team.  With the loss of Barro, Fitz, and probably James, we'll lose our most experienced post player and one of the most important members of the team.  The post play will be Burke and sophomores/freshmen, and our point guard options will be Acker/Cubillan and freshmen.  Despite the return of Matthews/McNeal/Hayward, I fully expect some sort of downslide next year.  Couple that with the mantra oft-repeated by Crean-haters of "zero wins without Wade", and the fear is that the team's best opportunity just isn't good enough and the trend of zero wins post-Wade will continue.   No true Marquette fan wants that.

Meeting Expectations

I want just one win this year in the NCAA tournament.  That is "meeting expectations".  It's kind of a bitter pill, honestly, because I had hoped, when the Amigos were freshmen, of a potential Elite Eight / Final-Four type run this year.  Now, Sweet Sixteen or beyond is "exceeds expectations".  This team has potential and could be special, but let's start with just one win.

Recapturing the Momentum

Heading into the Georgetown game, NYWarrior and I agreed on the following. Excluding Florida Gulf Coast, Marquette needed to win two of the next three games for us to feel confident about the team. This meant beating either Georgetown or Syracuse and winning the first game in the Big East Tournament. The logic behind this statement is that failure to win two out of three would portend that the team was likely to suffer yet another late season fade and NCAA first round flameout.

The opportunity is still there for this team.  It's just that the margin of error has been eliminated.  Thankfully, the team has the ability to shake out the cobwebs against Florida Gulf Coast.  Then, it's time for Marquette to go and step on the dreams of a team just fighting to make the NCAA tournament.  Given the right matchups in the BET, MU could even make the semis and win a few games.  But it all starts with winning the next two (really three) games and recapturing that momentum heading into the NCAA tournament.

Give Us a Reason to Believe

Here's the deal with the team. We're searching, hoping, and praying for a reason to believe in this team. On Saturday, in front of 19K rabid fans and a national audience, we screamed and we believed and got collectively kicked in the teeth. The team and the fans are heartbroken.  Marquette was close to breaking through with a statement win but just fell short.

It's gut check time in Marquette-land.

Give us a reason to maintain that hope.  Come out strong against Florida Gulf Coast.  Win against Syracuse and we'll believe.  The refrain of "We Are Marquette" will ring out loud and clear in Madison Square Garden and wherever we play in the NCAA tournament.

We'll believe that on the first day of the NCAA tournament, MU will meet expectations.

Onto the numbers (with no individual ratings today due to length)

Four Factors Review




Looking at the Four Factors shows something fairly interesting.  Each team was able to utilize their strengths.  Yet again, Marquette was able to keep their turnovers down and force their opponent into more turnovers than normal.  However, Georgetown was able to win the effective Field Goal % battle, which ultimately made the difference.  Remember that Georgetown is number one in the country at effective Field Goal defense and number eight in the country at effective Field Goal offense.  Although Marquette won the Offensive Rebounding battle and Georgetown won the Free Throw Rate battle, the two percentages were close enough such that the result was a wash.

Of course, there was also another factor at play in the game...

The Fifth Factor



Just kidding, folks.  After all, it's not like we've ever complained about officials,  ever.  Despite what seemed like lots of calls going in Georgetown's favor, Marquette had the opportunity to win and did not.  A few more free throws and a non-foul by James and this is all moot.

Time to move on to Florida Gulf Coast and Senior Night. Let's recapture that momentum.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2008/03/recapturing-momentum-plus-numbers.html

[muchalktalk]

Should we care about you feeling slighted by this team just because you have a blog. Why not just whine on your blog and let people go read it if they care to.

Are you serious about needing something to believe in. We just had a great run and played good enough to beat Georgetown, even with having a bad free-throw shooting night, Lazar going 0-8, and McNeal shooting 5-21.  You need to get over yourself. 

If you were joking, I apologize, but I am fed up with some of our "fans". 

[Henry Sugar]

That's funny.

I'm the optimistic one on Cracked Sidewalks.  And I didn't think that the post was whining at all. 

Thanks for your feedback, though.

[Marquette84]

That's funny.

I'm the optimistic one on Cracked Sidewalks.  And I didn't think that the post was whining at all. 

Thanks for your feedback, though.

I'm not sure your optimism matched mine:
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2007/11/cs-team-predictions-2007-08.html

The irony is that NY (and you) seem more disappointed with a performance which is almost exactly meeting his pre-season expectations (game-by-game, NY predicted every loss save the home game vs. Louisville).   

[RawdogDX]

Should we care about you feeling slighted by this team just because you have a blog. Why not just whine on your blog and let people go read it if they care to.

Are you serious about needing something to believe in. We just had a great run and played good enough to beat Georgetown, even with having a bad free-throw shooting night, Lazar going 0-8, and McNeal shooting 5-21.  You need to get over yourself. 

If you were joking, I apologize, but I am fed up with some of our "fans". 

.  This post didn't give me any sense of being 'slighted.'  And that 0-8, 5-21, and poor free throw shooting were all part of the stats he brought up.  You should be fed up with some of our fans but I think jumping on anyone who says they need a reason to beleive that this post season is going to end up any different after a few dissapointments.

[ChicosBailBonds]

That's funny.

I'm the optimistic one on Cracked Sidewalks.  And I didn't think that the post was whining at all. 

Thanks for your feedback, though.

I'm not sure your optimism matched mine:
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2007/11/cs-team-predictions-2007-08.html

The irony is that NY (and you) seem more disappointed with a performance which is almost exactly meeting his pre-season expectations (game-by-game, NY predicted every loss save the home game vs. Louisville).   

If MU beat G'Town I had a shot to NAIL it at 13-5...oh well.  You and I were a bit more optimistic, though I had a lot of trouble correctly picking the correct wins.

[mviale]

Should we care about you feeling slighted by this team just because you have a blog. Why not just whine on your blog and let people go read it if they care to.

Are you serious about needing something to believe in. We just had a great run and played good enough to beat Georgetown, even with having a bad free-throw shooting night, Lazar going 0-8, and McNeal shooting 5-21.  You need to get over yourself. 

If you were joking, I apologize, but I am fed up with some of our "fans". 

Totally agree MUchalktalk - can these guys be a bit more negative - we just lost to the #10 team in the nation in OT.  Is that skylab falling?

[mu_hilltopper]

That's funny.  Now we've been criticized for being too negative AND too positive.  Quite a year.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I'll just go on record as saying the cracked sidewalks guys do a great job.

I'm not always in agreement with some of the opinions, but it's not my website... so I'm not complaining.

I'm sure it takes a lot of time to compile and write all of the blogs and information, and it is a great resource.

I also have that Henry Sugar's stuff has been FANTASTIC. I watch and read about MU hoops all of the time from several different sources... but to have statistical analysis about players and games really is tremendous.

Sometimes as a fan, I "perceive" things about players or games that aren't totally accurate because emotion and/or likes and dislikes come into play.  Taking a look at the numbers is always an interesting read to see if my "basketball gut" is matching what is actually happening on the court.

Thanks to H. Sugar for that!

[Henry Sugar]

Just cause I'm a sucker for flattery, here is the Individual Player Rating info for the GTown game. 



Wesley - great game
McNeal - terrible offensive rating.  Usage was way too high and well above his season average of 20%.  Still added 4 net points because his defense rocked
Go Burke
Mbakwe's defense continues to be better than the team's average, but his offense needs help
Lazar really had a horrible game.

edit:  finally got the sizing close

[Big Papi]

I read the initial blog post from NY Warrior and while I value his opinion and what he said was true, I didn't agree with his last statement at all that we would lose in the first round.  If things remain the same we would in all likelihood get a 5 or 6 seed.  That means we play an 11 or 12 seed in the NCAA tourny.  None of those teams are like Louisville, UConn, Georgtown and whoever else clumped in together.  Most of the 11 or 12 seeds have more weaknesses and holes than we do.  Yes we struggle against good interior defenses but UConn, Louisville and Georgetown are very good overall teams that have good offenses as well.  Our first opponent will not be the same caliber of team.  We might play a good interior defensive team but than more than likely their offense will probably really suck or vice versa. 

If anything this team has shown an ability to beat teams that will be seeded 10, 11, 12, 13 and on.  Now can we lose against any of those teams.  Sure we can if someone gets hot or if we go ice cold but the odds are stacked in our favor that we will win the first round game.  The outcome of the second game and possibly beyond will definitely be more predicated on our matchup of who we play. 

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Just cause I'm a sucker for flattery, here is the Individual Player Rating info for the GTown game. 



Wesley - great game
McNeal - terrible offensive rating.  Usage was way too high and well above his season average of 20%.  Still added 4 net points because his defense rocked
Go Burke
Mbakwe's defense continues to be better than the team's average, but his offense needs help
Lazar really had a horrible game.

edit:  finally got the sizing close

Fantastic as always. The usage % numbers are really interesting as well. Obviously when the usage % get really high, it's usually an indication that the player is stepping out of his normal role and thus becoming less efficient and/or effective.

Now, you could argue that due to Lazar's relatively poor performance, McNeal tried to compensate for that by increasing his shots... but obviously it's up to the coaches to move the pieces around to make sure that they can compensate while still keeping players effective in their roles.

Interesting, interesting stuff.

[AlumKCof93]

I'm a little surprised at response at the initial email saying how negative it was.  I thought it was right on, although I like our chances to reach the Sweet 16.  We have a good, solid team and as long as its able to continue to play at the level it has the past month or so, I see good things happening.
In regard to the player rankings, I think McNeal's raking is a bit unfair.  While I think I'm the most vocal critic of McNeal - he should be the 4th option in offense and he takes too many shots and forces too many things - I think he played well against Georgetown.  He displayed the toughness that we need, particularly going against a bigger team.  The only shot I really disliked was the 3 coming off a timeout, and that play was designed for McNeal.  I blame Crean for the playcall more than McNeal for missing/taking the shot.

[Henry Sugar]

I really view our team's ceiling as Elite Eight.  That would mean beating one team we're supposed to beat (5/12, 6/11, or even 7/10) and then two upsets.

McNeal's usage was way too high, and 2002mualum is right.  When a player consumes too high a percentage of possessions, then that player generally becomes less efficient.  Superstars are people like Michael Jordan, who could combine a very high usage (>30%) with a very high ORtg (130+ lifetime).

The numbers actually say that McNeal did play well against Georgetown.  He produced almost nineteen points and four of those were net positive.  However, McNeal's contributions were on the defensive end and not the offensive end.  After all, McNeal missed sixteen shots and shot 7-12 from the charity stripe.