COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[GooooMarquette]

1. After the Imperial College's model that originated the lockdown was found to be painfully wrong I'm not sure how much I trust a model out of them.
2. Locking down sooner obviously would have saved lives, this feels like mental masturbation for those that want to throw darts at leadership for not coming to terms with the unbelievable a week sooner than we did.

I have no interest in going back and playing “what if” regarding the first wave. However, differing viewpoints, theories and studies of the first wave are useful in preparing for a second wave...or the next pandemic.

[GooooMarquette]

Realistically we weren't going to shut down earlier than we did.  And I'm not blaming the President for that.  Until New York started to spiral and the NBA postponed, we were not in that mindset as a nation.

Agreed. My main purpose was not to point fingers at Boris Johnson (or President Trump or the various governors) regarding the first wave. It was to provide more discussion about the usefulness of shutting down in preparation for a possible second wave, or the next big pandemic.

[forgetful]

1. After the Imperial College's model that originated the lockdown was found to be painfully wrong I'm not sure how much I trust a model out of them.
2. Locking down sooner obviously would have saved lives, this feels like mental masturbation for those that want to throw darts at leadership for not coming to terms with the unbelievable a week sooner than we did.

Playing a bit of devils advocate here. But the Imperial College's model was based on nations having zero lockdowns or social distancing. Since everyone had lockdowns/social distancing to some extent, I'm not sure how you can say it was "painfully wrong". Most studies thereafter came to similar conclusions for no lockdown/no social distancing.

Now, their models may have been coded poorly, or had other issues, but one can't say their conclusions were "painfully wrong" since there is no contradicting evidence (e.g. everyone locked down or had some sort of social distancing).

[pbiflyer]

DO you know what testing you had? My current understanding is that a positive results means you had it but a negative result means you probably didn't have it but not for sure.

Here let this guy explain ZFB's test results.

"I tested very positively in another sense, I tested positively toward negative, right? So no, I tested perfectly this morning. Meaning I tested negative. But that's a way of saying it. Positively toward the negative."

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Realistically we weren't going to shut down earlier than we did.  And I'm not blaming the President for that.  Until New York started to spiral and the NBA postponed, we were not in that mindset as a nation.

Agree with this. The week of March 9th went from cautious concern nationally to extreme measures time.

[GooooMarquette]

A Harvard health expert predicts an additional 100,000 US coronavirus deaths by September

https://www.businessinsider.com/harvard-expert-predicts-coronavirus-deaths-in-us-by-september-2020-6

We have a long long way to go, and it’s beginning to seem the public is becoming numbed by the staggering numbers.

[Jockey]

A Harvard health expert predicts an additional 100,000 US coronavirus deaths by September

https://www.businessinsider.com/harvard-expert-predicts-coronavirus-deaths-in-us-by-september-2020-6

We have a long long way to go, and it’s beginning to seem the public is becoming numbed by the staggering numbers.

Can only pray that they are wrong.

But, Bunker Boy has washed his hands of this. Covid no longer exists.

[JWags85]

Agree with this. The week of March 9th went from cautious concern nationally to extreme measures time.

I flew into NYC on the 11th. The only thing different was I clorox-wiped my seat to appease my GF, who is a bit of germaphobe to begin with. I planned on going to a BET game or two, taking meetings, and heading back as planned on the 16th. My only concern regarding the virus was how much hand sanitizer id be expected to use when returning from meetings or the gym, and rolling my eyes at my GF using a glove for some door handles. The idea of March Madness being cancelled seemed like overreaction hysteria.

Within 10 days it went from “I’ll head back unless Wisconsin also decides to close” to “I’m here working remotely until the Midwest turns the corner”.  It was surreal how fast things moved.

Which is why I’m a bit skeptical to the whole view of a catastrophic second wave. Even without a second lockdown, there is such a complete different level of perspective, preparedness, and knowledge about it, from hygiene to masks to social distancing to simply just not being gross and unsanitary like should have been the case to avoid cold and flu anyways.

All of that being considered and the most vulnerable age demos still exercising caution, saying we’ll have another 100K during summer months seems like alarmist nonsense.

[rocky_warrior]

saying we’ll have another 100K during summer months seems like alarmist nonsense.

Even with lots of folks being careful, in the past 10 days or so we're averaging around 800-900 deaths per day.  No unreasonable that that keeps up for another 90 days...

(please check my numbers.  I see US deaths @ ~103k on May 31, and at ~112k on Jun 10.  10 day average ~900)

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

To CTs point yesterday this is great news.  However if I’m a Missouri resident I may be looking to allocate more money to contact tracing if this alone ‘pushed them to the brink’

 The salon kept impeccable records that made contact tracing possible, Goddard said. But he cautioned about the risks of overwhelming resources in such incidents.

"We can't have many more of these," he said last month. "We can't make this a regular habit or our capabilities as a community will be strained."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/us/missouri-hairstylists-coronavirus-clients-trnd/index.html

[mu_hilltopper]

I agree the country wouldn't have locked-down any earlier than it did.

But .. imagine if we all had put on masks indoors ~3 weeks earlier.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

But .. imagine if we all had put on masks indoors ~3 weeks earlier.

Based on Asia results with the virus, the MO hair salon, more research.  I just don't know why this is still a debate/controversial.  I'd rather wear a mask and have a semblance of normal movement then the alternative (uncontrolled spread). 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-masks-study/widespread-mask-wearing-could-prevent-covid-19-second-waves-study-idUSKBN23G37V

Also here is a point from Scott Gottlieb that I thought was important.  Case increases are not necessarily cause for alarm due to increased testing -- as long as we are TRACING and ISOLATING those cases/contacts.  Just goes back to the point to remember why we count (to take action/deploy resources/etc).

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1270850635152400384

[MU82]

The blame game is going back and forth about why the RNC is moving from Charlotte to Jacksonville, with Trump blaming NC's Democratic governor Roy Cooper for refusing to re-open more of the state faster ... while Cooper says it is just common sense and heeding science to refuse to guarantee that 19,000 people will be able to jam into the Spectrum Center without masks and social distancing, which is what Trump is demanding.

Meanwhile, Trump's own Coronavirus Task Force leader, Deborah Birx, says she is "very concerned" that the COVID-19 hospitalization and death rates in NC's largest counties are going up in the period 2-3 weeks after most of the state's economy re-opened.

[Hards Alumni]

Even with lots of folks being careful, in the past 10 days or so we're averaging around 800-900 deaths per day.  No unreasonable that that keeps up for another 90 days...

(please check my numbers.  I see US deaths @ ~103k on May 31, and at ~112k on Jun 10.  10 day average ~900)

Unfortunately, society is numb to those numbers.  We don't consider them people anymore... just another statistic.

[muwarrior69]

Will they require grade school kids to ware masks when/if they return to school? Will the school system supply those masks? What if a 5, 6, or 7 year old takes it off because they don't like waring it. Will they be disciplined or sent home? How will they social distance in a classroom. Will they be able to take their mask off at lunch time or recess and if so how will that prevent the spread? Will music departments be cut as singing spreads the virus.

[GooooMarquette]

Based on Asia results with the virus, the MO hair salon, more research.  I just don't know why this is still a debate/controversial.  I'd rather wear a mask and have a semblance of normal movement then the alternative (uncontrolled spread). 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-masks-study/widespread-mask-wearing-could-prevent-covid-19-second-waves-study-idUSKBN23G37V

Also here is a point from Scott Gottlieb that I thought was important.  Case increases are not necessarily cause for alarm due to increased testing -- as long as we are TRACING and ISOLATING those cases/contacts.  Just goes back to the point to remember why we count (to take action/deploy resources/etc).

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1270850635152400384

Totally agree on masks. There is literally no downside to wearing one, and the complaints about “difficulty breathing“ only indicate that people must not be wearing them correctly. It reminds me of the seatbelt excuses (to “inconvenient“ or “uncomfortable“) back in the day.

And to me, the lack of contact tracing is the main reason why the prediction of another 100,000 deaths by early fall is very realistic. We seem to have become numb to the death tolls, and still are not putting nearly enough resources into contact tracing. Instead, we are just re-opening things and putting a token effort into contact tracing, and letting the numbers fall where they may.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Will they require grade school kids to ware masks when/if they return to school? Will the school system supply those masks? What if a 5, 6, or 7 year old takes it off because they don't like waring it. Will they be disciplined or sent home? How will they social distance in a classroom. Will they be able to take their mask off at lunch time or recess and if so how will that prevent the spread? Will music departments be cut as singing spreads the virus.

I’m going to ask 1000 questions to make something seem impossible or insurmountable. 

The answer is we have to create a system reduce risk. We need to empower people to make smart choices and we are going to have to learn as we go and it won’t be foolproof or perfect.

As to funding.  That is a reality.  PPE will likely need to be provided at the expense of the taxpayer.   

I’m sure since you have thought this out, your local school board would love the benefit of your expertise if you are willing to find solutions. 

[wadesworld]

“We need to open up this country! The economy is getting killed.”

2 seconds later.

“But I don’t want to do the things that will make opening the country a possibility!”

[shoothoops]

Wearing a mask to some is a sign of looking weak, soft, etc...It doesn't help that the President and others are leading the way on this.

 For others, it is simply selfish, that nothing has happened to them or their loved ones (yet) so they aren't going to do it. Not taking it seriously. This also was repeatedly advanced by the President, Fox News etc..

Wearing a mask of course is a small ask as a safety courtesy to others around you, both strangers, and friends and loved ones.

Enough data is out there that suggests it helps, possibly a lot, and worst case, it isn't going to hurt.

Finally, wearing a mask is a daily visual reminder of the ongoing severity of the virus, something a certain group or people doesn't want to see for the next 6 months.

[Hards Alumni]

Will they require grade school kids to ware masks when/if they return to school? Will the school system supply those masks? What if a 5, 6, or 7 year old takes it off because they don't like waring it. Will they be disciplined or sent home? How will they social distance in a classroom. Will they be able to take their mask off at lunch time or recess and if so how will that prevent the spread? Will music departments be cut as singing spreads the virus.

Probably.  Yes, or bring your own.  They'll be sent home, probably.  Classrooms will probably spaced accordingly, and there probably will be zero open classrooms.  Yes of course, this is how restaurants work.  Recess will probably be cancelled... along with music and PE... or it will take place outside when it is decent out.  PE can easily become a study/homework period.  There will likely be temp checks and hand sanitizer everywhere.

All of this assumes that school even starts back up in the fall.  Also, I'm just talking out of my ass, but you're acting like problems aren't solvable so we should just 'get back to normal'.

[mu03eng]

Unfortunately, society is numb to those numbers.  We don't consider them people anymore... just another statistic.

But it is a statistic. The thing I have trouble tracking in my brain is that on average 2.73 Million people die in the US every year. So let's extrapolate and say this year, 300,000 people die of Covid this year......how many of those are net new deaths that wouldn't have happened anyway.

I'm not trying to be a ghoul here or discount the seriousness of Covid, but bring a balance between the continued panic over the deaths and the cavalier attitude that you point out.

We should be wearing masks, we should be distancing, we should be tracking where possible.....but isn't this death outcome kind of sort of baked in, especially if we're going support the protests? I'm not saying I'm numb to but this seems to be where we're at and I'm not sure what we want done about it.

[wadesworld]

Wearing a mask to some is a sign of looking weak, soft, etc...It doesn't help that the President and others are leading the way on this.

 For others, it is simply selfish, that nothing has happened to them or their loved ones (yet) so they aren't going to do it. Not taking it seriously. This also was repeatedly advanced by the President, Fox News etc..

Wearing a mask of course is a small ask as a safety courtesy to others around you, both strangers, and friends and loved ones.

Enough data is out there that suggests it helps, possibly a lot, and worst case, it isn't going to hurt.

Finally, wearing a mask is a daily visual reminder of the ongoing severity of the virus, something a certain group or people doesn't want to see for the next 6 months.

Making America Great Again.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Will they require grade school kids to ware masks when/if they return to school? Will the school system supply those masks? What if a 5, 6, or 7 year old takes it off because they don't like waring it. Will they be disciplined or sent home? How will they social distance in a classroom. Will they be able to take their mask off at lunch time or recess and if so how will that prevent the spread? Will music departments be cut as singing spreads the virus.

*wear
*wearing

Anyway, these are questions that school officials across the country are dealing with.  No easy answers so I am sure mistakes will be made even when people have the best of intentions.

[GooooMarquette]

But it is a statistic.

The problem it is not is not that many are seeing it as a statistic; it’s that many are seeing it as just a statistic.

[JWags85]

The problem it is not is not that many are seeing it as a statistic; it’s that many are seeing it as just a statistic.

As opposed to? Statistics in this case are used to track and mitigate risk. If we treat it differently because of the human element then you get into a “who are we to say even one loss of life isn’t acceptable” and you get people clamoring to stay home until we have a cure. It’s a slippery slope to be sure but I’m not sure what sort of special weight you want put to it?

Either you view it as a statistic or you view it in the lens of “each of these is a person no longer with us” like Gov Murphy was doing in every press conference