COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Talked to my brother in law and his wife in Hong Kong today.  HK is shutting down bars (again) as of Friday.  They are being hit by the 2nd wave.  It's all blamed on ex-Pats and boarding school kids who "escaped" during their quarantine now coming back and re-infecting everyone.  The best thing anyone could have done was ride out the storm in HK.  Now they are only making it worse.  Schools have yet to re-open.  Some businesses re-opened for a week and then shut back down.  Restaurants are open.

Other notes:

- They think China is by and large very accurately reporting
- My brother-in-law sees numbers every day from China for his job (American company, activity coming back online) 
- China wouldn’t allow his places to reopen, lift travel restrictions, etc. if it was still alive
- China is obsessed with its world reputation and wouldn’t play games

Bottomline:

You have to stay in your town thru thick and thin (ppl who are riding this out in FLA who will come back to the Midwest are problematic)

They think we’re screwed bc what really kills this thing is everyone sheltering in place for 2 weeks together

I just received this note from my companies plant manager in Guangdong Province:

- factory is fully operational with 100% attendance.
- no-one has contracted the virus,
- everyone is back from extended spring break, incl. people from the worst infected area.
- social distancing measures and sanitizing have been practiced rigorously
- local government has been very appreciative for our company being able to re-open safely and quickly

[WarriorDad]

Maybe I'm misreading, but isn't this exactly what we're all being asked to do?

Most families we know are hunkered down together, but still eating together, socializing, spouses having relations.  Gov Murphy is saying everyone to their own rooms, no interaction is the way I read it.

[Hards Alumni]

Most families we know are hunkered down together, but still eating together, socializing, spouses having relations.  Gov Murphy is saying everyone to their own rooms, no interaction is the way I read it.

He must be confusing "self-isolation" (those who are known to have the disease), with "self quarantine" (those who have good reason to suspect they have the disease).

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Since everyone likes to reference the movie Contagion.

I saw this video comparing the movie to current events.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZOn6rrpU-Q&feature=youtu.be

[warriorchick]

I just received this note from my companies plant manager in Guangdong Province:

- factory is fully operational with 100% attendance.
- no-one has contracted the virus,
- everyone is back from extended spring break, incl. people from the worst infected area.
- social distancing measures and sanitizing have been practiced rigorously
- local government has been very appreciative for our company being able to re-open safely and quickly

Apparently the official counts don't seem to be jibing with the funeral home activity:  https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3077644/funeral-parlour-report-fans-fears-over-wuhan-death-toll

[Jockey]

Apparently the official counts don't seem to be jibing with the funeral home activity:  https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3077644/funeral-parlour-report-fans-fears-over-wuhan-death-toll

I think it is a given that China lied.

China will also lie in the future. We shouldn't expect anything else.

[Coleman]

That China lied about the extent of COVID-19 (they obviously did) and that they are getting back to a semblance of normal are not mutually exclusive things.

[GooooMarquette]

I think it is a given that China lied.

China will also lie in the future. We shouldn't expect anything else.

Yep. Whatever numbers or treatments we analyze ought to completely ignore whatever we are told by China. If we do it any other way, we’re wasting our time.

[JWags85]

That China lied about the extent of COVID-19 (they obviously did) and that they are getting back to a semblance of normal are not mutually exclusive things.

Yep.  Its a HUGE country.  Things at the epicenter were worse than they claimed and likely were dicey longer than they lead on, but I have no reason to doubt the accounts myself and others have gotten from the ground in Guandong and even Hunan.

 I have an employee in our China office in Shenzhen who has actually been looking to resign and move back closer to her family in Sichuan.  It obviously was delayed by COVID and further as some of her family were infected.  She was given the all clear a few weeks ago and is moving back mid April.  Unfortunate for the business, but good for her and the health of China as a whole.

[Jockey]

That China lied about the extent of COVID-19 (they obviously did) and that they are getting back to a semblance of normal are not mutually exclusive things.

An excellent point. Each country will reach a point where they have to try to get back to normal. Some will make good decisions based on the health of their people. Others will make the decision based almost solely on economic reasons, which could open the possibility for a second wave.


We will see what happens in China over the next month or two. It should be a good learning moment for the rest of us.

[keefe]

spouses having relations

What does this mean?

[GB Warrior]

That China lied about the extent of COVID-19 (they obviously did) and that they are getting back to a semblance of normal are not mutually exclusive things.

Great point. And comparing US death counts - whether China's are accurate or not - is a really sad dick measuring contest for a president that is looking to shirk responsibilities. 

[pbiflyer]

What does this mean?

This explains so much.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

What does this mean?

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Yep.  Its a HUGE country.  Things at the epicenter were worse than they claimed and likely were dicey longer than they lead on, but I have no reason to doubt the accounts myself and others have gotten from the ground in Guandong and even Hunan.

I love after visits telling some people, "I just came back from Hong Kong and Guangdong Province, China".

"Did you see the Great Wall?"

"No, you idiot it's a 4 hour plane ride away!"

[GooooMarquette]

That China lied about the extent of COVID-19 (they obviously did) and that they are getting back to a semblance of normal are not mutually exclusive things.

Great point.

However, there are limits to how much we can learn from them, because we will never really know how they got from point A (the initial outbreak) to point B (a semblance of normal). And if we did learn how, maybe we would learn that it was from methods of social separation and isolation that Americans would never tolerate.

[StillAWarrior]

We will see what happens in China over the next month or two.

Then again, we might not.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

This had some good state/city data and analysis. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-metro-area-tracker.html?smtyp=cur&smid=fb-nytimes

[Jockey]

Then again, we might not.

  Probably not from their gov't, but there are enough business connections that we will find out.

[forgetful]

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-02/coronavirus-trump-pandemic-program-viruses-detection

Not a good look. Canceled the very program that looked to cooperate with China to identify potential pandemics caused by things like the Coronavirus...just months before this breakout.

That is near criminal negligence.

Here is a brief except.

"Two months before the novel coronavirus is thought to have begun its deadly advance in Wuhan, China, the Trump administration ended a $200-million pandemic early-warning program aimed at training scientists in China and other countries to detect and respond to such a threat.

The project, launched by the U.S. Agency for International Development in 2009, identified 1,200 different viruses that had the potential to erupt into pandemics, including more than 160 novel coronaviruses. The initiative, called PREDICT, also trained and supported staff in 60 foreign laboratories — including the Wuhan lab that identified SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

Field work ceased when the funding ran out in September, and organizations that worked on the PREDICT program laid off dozens of scientists and analysts, said Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, a key player in the program."

[TSmith34, Inc.]

The toilet paper shortage explained.
https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

"There’s another, entirely logical explanation for why stores have run out of toilet paper — one that has gone oddly overlooked in the vast majority of media coverage. It has nothing to do with psychology and everything to do with supply chains. It helps to explain why stores are still having trouble keeping it in stock, weeks after they started limiting how many a customer could purchase.

In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports."

[jesmu84]

The toilet paper shortage explained.
https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

"There’s another, entirely logical explanation for why stores have run out of toilet paper — one that has gone oddly overlooked in the vast majority of media coverage. It has nothing to do with psychology and everything to do with supply chains. It helps to explain why stores are still having trouble keeping it in stock, weeks after they started limiting how many a customer could purchase.

In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports."

https://www.reddit.com/r/theydidthemath/comments/fo2qyo/rdtm_toilet_paper_you_need_for_14_days_in/

[GooooMarquette]

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-02/coronavirus-trump-pandemic-program-viruses-detection

Not a good look. Canceled the very program that looked to cooperate with China to identify potential pandemics caused by things like the Coronavirus...just months before this breakout.

That is near criminal negligence.

Here is a brief except.

"Two months before the novel coronavirus is thought to have begun its deadly advance in Wuhan, China, the Trump administration ended a $200-million pandemic early-warning program aimed at training scientists in China and other countries to detect and respond to such a threat.

The project, launched by the U.S. Agency for International Development in 2009, identified 1,200 different viruses that had the potential to erupt into pandemics, including more than 160 novel coronaviruses. The initiative, called PREDICT, also trained and supported staff in 60 foreign laboratories — including the Wuhan lab that identified SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

Field work ceased when the funding ran out in September, and organizations that worked on the PREDICT program laid off dozens of scientists and analysts, said Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, a key player in the program."

Yep. A Trump "cost-saving" measure that will cost us infinitely more money than we saved...and hundreds of thousands of lives as well.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-02/coronavirus-trump-pandemic-program-viruses-detection

Not a good look. Canceled the very program that looked to cooperate with China to identify potential pandemics caused by things like the Coronavirus...just months before this breakout.

That is near criminal negligence.

Here is a brief except.

"Two months before the novel coronavirus is thought to have begun its deadly advance in Wuhan, China, the Trump administration ended a $200-million pandemic early-warning program aimed at training scientists in China and other countries to detect and respond to such a threat.

The project, launched by the U.S. Agency for International Development in 2009, identified 1,200 different viruses that had the potential to erupt into pandemics, including more than 160 novel coronaviruses. The initiative, called PREDICT, also trained and supported staff in 60 foreign laboratories — including the Wuhan lab that identified SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

Field work ceased when the funding ran out in September, and organizations that worked on the PREDICT program laid off dozens of scientists and analysts, said Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, a key player in the program."

Not surprising.

If you want to be scared, read the latest cover story from The Atlantic.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

The toilet paper shortage explained.
https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

"There’s another, entirely logical explanation for why stores have run out of toilet paper — one that has gone oddly overlooked in the vast majority of media coverage. It has nothing to do with psychology and everything to do with supply chains. It helps to explain why stores are still having trouble keeping it in stock, weeks after they started limiting how many a customer could purchase.

In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports."

Isn't there a Kimberly-Clarke toilet paper factory in Wisconsin?

Are people stalking the factory yet and following trucks as they leave the factory?